Lessons from an Experienced Trader
Lessons from an experienced trader.
Lesson 1. Never scalp.
Although scalping seems to be the most profitable and best method in today's market, it is certainly not. Scalping is the hardest method to achieve a consistent performance. High frequency trading firms scalp, but they have many advantages over the retail trader including direct access to exchanges, highly developed algorithms with no emotions, and extremely low costs to name a few. When you are scalping you are competing against these firms or trying to manually do what they do with a computer.
This above is only one problem. The bigger issue is the risk involved. When scalping, you must use a wide stop and be willing to scale in. One bad trade will erase 20 or more good trades. You must be extremely proficient at reading price charts, and be able to act without hesitation. This is virtually impossible for anyone who has not been trading for at least 3 years and has done extensive work on himself to develop the ability to flow with the market, constantly, without any internal conflict.
And worst of all, scalping leads to bad habits. Once you get into the mindset of "get out quick" it is very hard to correct down the road. This makes swing trading more difficult later on after you realize it is a better method.
Lesson 2. Swing Trade the best setups
Swing trading is much more forgiving than scalping, offers a larger reward, and allows for a smaller risk (usually). This makes it much easier to make money long term. When swing trading you only have to win on around 40% of your trades to make a profit. If you can develop the patience to wait for strong setups, you can increase the winning percentage to anywhere from 50-70% and greatly increase your traders equation.
A swing trading approach is also more forgiving when it comes to reading price charts. Some of those who discuss Price Action would lead you to believe you can predict what the markets are going to do next. This is simply not true, no matter how good you are at reading a chart. There is always a degree of randomness in the market, with any edge, any setup, or any context. When swing trading, you can afford to be wrong and make mistakes.
So what setups should a swing trader take? Well, it depends if you want to always in trade or swing trade with signal bar stops. Either is fine, although an always in approach takes more practice and is harder to get right until you are good at reading charts.
An always in trader has two choices. One to take every logical reversal (hardest to accomplish), and constantly reverse when necessary. Or two; wait for the always in direction to be clear and enter any in any fashion until the market flips. The second method is easier, although still tough, and slightly less profitable. An always in trader does not trade when prices are in a trading range. The reward is simply too low, and there are too many reversals to take and that fail, resulting in repeated losses and increased commission costs.
What about a swing trader? A swing trader typically uses a signal bar stop, but can also use a swing stop to increase his probability. A swing trader does not have to take every trade he sees (unlike the first always in trader). In fact, it is best to wait for the best and clearest setups.
What setups are these? High 2's, Low 2's (large) reversals and flags, Wedge reversals and flags, failed breakouts, and failed reversals. The first two are much easier to identify correctly for someone with less experience. The later two often trick newer traders, or fail once or twice before succeeding, making it a bit harder to get right.
Lesson 3. Work on your self
Like discussed before, most new traders and even those who have been around but haven't reached consistency believe that eventually you can read prices well enough to predict what will happen next. It does not matter how long you have traded, you will never predict the market. If it were possible to do so, the market would cease to exist!
So instead of only focusing on reading charts and price action, you must work on your self. You must understand your strengths and weaknesses. You must be aware of your emotions and how they affect your performance. If you do not believe your emotions are directly related to your performance, you will not achieve consistency long term. We are all humans, a computer cannot do what I do. And you cannot remove emotions, no matter how hard you try to do so. So what is the alternative? Develop awareness of them, and use them to your advantage!
It is as plain and simple as this. Trading requires you to understand your self, on a deep and internal level. You must be in tune with your self and the market. If you chose to ignore this fact, you may succeed temporarily, but it is only a matter of time before your performance diminishes. In order to make a lot of money, you must feel you deserve it. If you do not work on yourself, this simply will not happen. Does a professional athlete become a star by waiting around for his coach to tell him what to do? No. He dedicates himself in every possible way to his sport, including conditioning his mind to outperform his competition.
Rather than waiting 2 or 3 years before realizing this, start working on your self from the very beginning. Not only will you become a better trader faster, you will become a better person; a better you.
Psychology
Emini ReviewThe Emini reversed down from a failed breakout of the all time high, and nested wedge reversal. There are trapped bulls who bought the May 3rd high who want out. Most bulls used the new high to take profits as the market is likely to transition into a trading range over the next few months or even years. However this does not mean the bulls will not get another test of the high, eventually. But the strong bull trend is less likely to resume, and instead prices will likely remain in a large bull flag trading range, where bulls and bears buy low and sell high.
Bull gaps are starting to be filled (Mar 29), which is a sign of trading range behavior. The bulls need to keep the Mar 11 gap open to prevent the bears from gaining strength. The bulls want to form a double bottom around here or the previous swing low around 2725. If the bulls are unable to form a double bottom or higher low, the bears will likely get a test of the Jan 29 micro double bottom which is the start of the tight bull channel.
There has been some signs of buying pressure over the past two weeks or so (tails below bars, bears lacking strong closes). Yesterday closed on its low, but this was likely due to a magnet affect testing the small micro double bottom from March. However, the bears will likely get some form of a second leg down from the wedge. If the bears can prevent the bulls from reaching the May 3rd close, they will have an increased chance of a large sell off and test of the December low, and bottom of the developing trading range.
TLRY Weekly Analysis Parabolic Wedge Bull FlagTLRY has formed a second entry for a parabolic wedge bull flag and larger high 2, although a doji bar. If the bulls are unable to regain control soon - something is wrong with the bull trend premise. If the bulls do not return within the next few weeks, prices are more likely to be in a trading range and will likely test the tight trading range of the open around $25. If the bulls do generate strong follow through, they will likely get two legs up at minimum, and possibly bull trend resumption.
Is trading mostly psychology? Just thoughts.The craziest thing to me about trading is that so many traders will interpret the same exact chart in so many different ways. Some traders will buy and some will sell with both traders closing at a lost.Why does it happen well it could be many different reasons, but I bet the main reason came down to not handling your emotions.The first trader could have been desperate to make money so he didn't wait for the right setups .The second trader might have had a good entry but was way over leveraged and one small move to the wrong side could have caused a losing trade.Being desperate to make a lot of money fast maybe the reason why so many traders lose money. Comment below any thoughts you may have I am also looking forward to learn.
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." – Warren Buffett
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TLRY Weekly AnalysisTLRY formed a parabolic wedge bull flag which triggered last week. So far it is failing and testing the bull breakout gap around $40. The bulls will likely try to form a second entry for the wedge bull flag within the next few weeks. If instead the sell off continues, prices will likely test the tight trading range of the open around $20 and from there enter a trading range.
Introduction to Trading PsychologyIntroduction to Trading Psychology
Learning to read a price chart takes a while, but is relatively straight forward. It is obvious learning how to read a price chart alone is not what leads to consistent profits. So, what is it that separates the very few successful traders from the so many failures? Is it their strategy, their money management skills, IQ, were they born with a different skill set than most, do they work harder than most, or are they just plain lucky? All of this sounds plausible, but are they really the driving factor behind consistent profits? The short answer is no, none of the above. Perhaps we have been looking for the answer in the wrong place all along. In fact, most traders never even consider the possibility that it is their attitude or mental habits which prevent their success. What truly separates the winners from the losers has nothing to do with external factors, but rather what goes on internally while observing and engaging the market, or in other words; a trader's mentality.
In #DropGold we trustCool TV spot posing a provocation:
Why did you invest in Gold?
Are you living in the past?
Actually, the fact we used Gold for centuries, is the main reason we trust it (too much)
This leads to the true question:
Why should we change?
Why #DropGold for Crypto?
For the same reason we dropped books for pdf, vinyls for mp3, horses for cars, coal for gas, arrows for guns...
Technology changed the world, Fiat and Gold are next
Trading PsychologyMany traders seek consistency through the idea of mastering the markets. They consider them to be logical and therefore can be figured out. They believe with more knowledge of markets and how they operate, they will eventually make a consistent return. And so they continue searching in the markets for a reliable edge, or outside the market for a leader or guru to show them the way. They see their emotions as an enemy; something standing in their way of success, and so attempt to remove them completely; which is impossible. This idea, that the answer is out there somewhere, is a false belief. Most traders never stop to think that perhaps what they are seeking is already within themselves, right here. That all they actually need is to stop searching, and look within.
In order to succeed long term you must first understand your self and the relationship between yourself and the market. Your emotions, thoughts, and perception of the market, and how these relate to actions taken in the market place. If you do not believe these are directly connected with your actions and therefore performance, you will likely struggle to maintain a consistent performance. Rather than viewing your emotions as an enemy, learn to use them to your advantage. Learn to understand the circle or cycle between you and the market.
EURUSD weekly analysisThe EURUSD (weekly) reversed down from a failed bull reversal this week. There are bull gaps below which are being tested. The bulls will try to form a nested wedge bull flag reversal for a large second leg up soon. If it fails, prices will likely test the low of the previous range around 1.044. The bulls need to keep atleast the breakout gap around 1.080 open. If it is filled, the bears will have an increased chance of a bear breakout below the range and larger second leg down from the May 2014 selloff. For now prices will likely remain range bound as both sides fight for follow through.
TSLA weekly analysis Bear breakout in TSLA from failed double bottom pullback. Bulls could not even trigger the setup (last week). Bull gaps below likely to be tested around $225 and $200. TSLA was in a trending trading range bull trend, which is now evoloving into a large trading range. Until one side gets a strong breakout, prices will likely remain range bound within a larger range made up of both trading ranges. If bears get strong follow through next week, prices will likely test the most recent higher low around $200, and possibly all the way down to the $125 start of the bull trend.
CGC weekly analysisCGC
Bull breakout from high 2 / nested wedge bull flag at EMA. Prob second bull leg up from Dec rally, but selling pressure above around $52. Mostly sidways in a large trading range since July 18. Probably some profit taking here or new all time high.
CRON weekly analysisCRON
CRON reversed down from a parabolic wedge and tested below the 1/28 bull gap and the previous all time high. Bulls still have gaps open below and are currently trying to close the bar on its high for a high 2 buy setup off the EMA. But decent selling pressure over past few weeks, possible second leg down before bulls return.
ACB weekly analysisACB 4/26
Failed L2/ nested H2 /Breakout pullback test of all time high in ACB. So far this week is a small doji bar, and small range of previous few weeks. Bull gaps still below, if prices test below last weeks bull bar prices will likely test the EMA and below the 8.00 big bull bar gap.
HEXO weekly analysisHEXO 4/26
Bull breakout of failed bear reversal, outside bull bar H2 variant, new all time high this week. Good buying pressure, still bull gaps open below, the most recent being just above the EMA at 7.75.
TLRY Weekly AnalysisTLRY
TLRY had a strong bull rally soon after it went public but formed a buy climax (tail). Since it has been correcting down to test the bull breakout. The selling pressure is not great and is accelerating, possibly setting up a wedge bull flag soon. If the bull gap from around $35 stays open it will increase the chances of bull trend continuation. If it is is filled, prices will likely test the tight trading range below and is more likely to enter a trading range.
Psych Hack #0006 - Dissonance TheoryIn this screencast I explore dissonance theory. Some don't know that trading is very little to do with charts and indicators - and terribly more to do with psychological matters that affect our decision-making. Seems a bit strange as my charts are usually covered in indicators.
I share lessons learned. I explore what the mind does when an alternative perspective or evidence emerges.
Disclaimer (required by Tradingview): This content is for educational purposes only. There is shared experience here based on exploration and study of psychological phenomena affecting decision-making and risk management. No guarantees are made that my knowledge or experience is right - and therefore should not be relied upon in real trading environments.
Notes on PsychologyWhere are hedge fund managers pricing their fibonacci's?
Quick notes:
Fibonacci major resistance at 61.8% - good sign
RSI back to par
Stochastic crossover below lower threshold
MACD may swing back to crossover but need more information.
Resistance at 50d moving average
Using 1h chart because things are happening VERY QUICKLY on this stock.
Psychologically at 50 cents is a natural barrier because we know that prices are not completely logical and they fluctuate around psychology where large fund managers will set exit and entry limit prices to make sure they are 'limiting their risk/downside"
SO WHERE DO THEY PUT THEIR MARKS?
50 cents on the chart had natural resistance and on the most recent climb we can see resistance jumps in increments
Resistance at .50, .60, .70, .80
Then we heard good news about their trials and it DOUBLED from .8 to ~1.6 which a DOUBLE is that good for a fund manager!? YES!! SELL SELL SELL SELL PANIC PANIC FOMO LOOSE MONEY EVERYONE SELLS
"GREAT! now we just made double our money, sold everything, now it has dropped back to our original price or just about ~.9 (let's increase it just a bit to not be predictable about our .8 resistance), and now let's double it again ! Now we have made quadruple our money in 10 days! WEEEE"
A favorite buy back is at a 61.8% retracement, while the volatility here shows that it can easily drop all the way down to .74 at the 78.6% fibonacci... it is unlikely and we will see consolidation until the big guys have their shares and then we will see this cycle repeat itself right back up to 1.8 or even 2! AND THEN MAJOR RESISTANCE SELL SELL SELL PANIC
RINSE & REPEAT.
Bitcoin: Comparison with 2015.. Are the bulls being trapped?Yesterday I made the case that presuming the end of the bear may be a bit premature. Comparing the weekly chart to the weekly chart of 2015 shows this as well.
I'm comparing this weeks candle to the candle of the 29th of June. Now here is where I'm being a bit premature, as this weeks candle is still young and bitcoin being bitcoin could close anywhere between 0 and infinity. But for arguments sake, let's assume that this candle will close above 4600. Keep in mind that if this is not the case, everything I say from won't really be true anymore.
The reason for comparing this weeks candle to that 2015 candle is that they are both the first candles to print a bullish level 2 signal (blue L2 on the chart). Comparing the candles, the current candle definitely looks more bullish, but also prints an exhaustion signal (red dot). This give me more reason to be cautious to the bullish side.
The bullish L2 signal in 2015 resulted in a minor pullback to just below the ribbon. The ribbon then remained neutral (grey), and turned bullish (blue) after the indicator printed a second bullish L2 signal. That was the start of the next bull market (to me at least..) in 2015.
I'm looking for something similar to happen this time: for the first bullish L2 signal to fail to turn the ribbon bullish and the market to pullback. To where? Well, I don't know. And nobody really does..
Will that pullback take us to new lows? Perhaps, and there are a number of cases to be made in its favour. The first and foremost is the amount of hope that the space still has. The catharsis this upmove caused is evident I think.. This does not mean we won't go higher, just that this hope (unfortunately) needs to be crushed before the bear is over. And this sets up for nasty bull traps..
Looking at 2015 you can see that trap laid out clearly, with a drop of about 33% after the first L2 signal printed.
If it goes lower, how low will it go? Again, I don't know. I won't bore you with the obvious levels, truth is, it can spike anywhere between 3000 and 500, perhaps even lower. It may be the final axe coming down, and how much force that axe needs to break the hope is unclear. The only clear thing, I do not fancy being on the receiving side of that blade. Waiting it out here seems to be the wisest option..
Will this time be different?
How many reasons can you think of why it will be different?
How bad do you want it to be different?
"Check yo'self, before you rek yo'self" a wise man once said...
NZDUSD - Retracement Before More Downside MovementWith the DXY in a crucial area laying in line with the 78.6 % Fibonacci level as well as a potential head & shoulder pattern, we may see this pair shoot to the upside. However, we have breached the descending trend line and closed above. This may be a false breakout or we will see a break & retest to push price higher for the USD. If the latter occurs, we should see NZDUSD plummet.
Looking at the daily timeframe on NZDUSD, we saw a fakeout spiking 70 pips above the descending trend line, however we saw previous resistance met, looking left, and saw a sharp decline to the downside. We then came up to test resistance which we then rejected, ( this was also a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. If you drop down to the 4HR timeframe, you will be able to see a double spinning top / doji formation off this zone showing price exhaustion and a potential reversal.
At the time of writing this article, we are currently respecting the ascending trend line and a minor support level. I have the 61.8%/78.6% Fibonacci marked up in blue as my desired entry to short this pair. Being in a pennant, we are currently consolidating and we can expect a breakout. I favour short, however I will look for a break & retest of the descending trend line incase DXY weakens which will then allow us to short USD pairs as well as buy Gold.
The EMA's have also recently crossed over as well as dropping down to the 4HR, we can see they are touching each other now and we can expect a new downside leg. The creation of a new range of lower lows and lower highs, rejection of trend line and resistance as well as the Fibonacci retracement are all used for confluence or more confirmation.
I will remain patient and look for a high probability , high risk/reward trade. Psychology and risk management is key to being consistent and profitable. Have a great week !
Important: Macro Market Cycle - T.A VersionHey Everyone!
First, here's a static picture of the chart we'll be discussing.
Something I do very often is get lost in the charts, comparing old data to new, recycling old methods and even memeing technical analysis like the Wall Street Cheat Sheet based off psychology.
Today, I decided instead of overlaying the two like I would usually do, was to just re create it. With some simple, yet effective technical analysis to understand why each of those points are labelled what they are.
After diving into it, The following is very clear :
1) That this is only a possibility, it's a simple interpretation of a chart that is based off psychology. We could still be at any given point of this chart on the grand scheme of things. I've picked this time zone based off when $BTC/$USDT pairing became available on Binance.
2) That simple technical analysis lined up with emotion, made much more sense as to why the traders at the time would feel the emotions that they did.
3) That the general feeling in the market right now is that of a possible disbelief, which would mean the bottom may well just be in based off a psychological point of the market
Let's zoom into each of these points and understand them more.
On the way up..
Disbelief , after finally rallying ~ a head and shoulders formed and completed, sending price dropping quickly. buyers quickly jumped in and a healthy double bottom/adam and eve pattern followed.. leaving a nice big wick on the bigger time frames. After forming another small head and shoulders and dropping, buyers quickly stepped in at support, and price sky rocketed in Disbelief . See image here:
Hope , after breaching above the previous high, price found a top just shy of a round number and then proceeded to form a successful bullflag.when sent price back up, which then formed a healthy double bottom/adam and eve pattern, which then found support above previous resistance and sky rocketed again. Once buyers were exhausted, another head and shoulders pattern completed sending price sky diving quickly. Traders had Hope that support would hold and the rally could continue, support was held and price bounced very quickly. See image here:
Optimism , After finding a local top, price created yet another bullflag, sending price higher creating a new high. Once found, price started to form an inverse head and shoulders and completed it, sending price sky rocketing once again. Another local top was found, and a bullflag was painted, however it was a very erratic one, big movements within each candle, yet it was successful and price jumped yet again breaching the previous high. Once above, it failed to stay above and sharp volume sent price down quickly, but buyers stepped in and kept the candle body higher than the previous high's candle body, giving great Optimism for traders. Once price was back above the high, and found support, price again, sky rocketed. See image here:
Thrill , After buyers were exhausted, a volatile sell off happened, which recovered and became yet another bullflag that completed. Once price reached the previous high, it formed another bullflag completed, found support above resistance, which would have sent a Thrill down bulls spines as their investment was now heading completely parabolic. See image here:
Euphoria , The parabolic curved reached it's peak, everyone was in a state of Euphoria but most were blinded by greed. See image here:
On the way back down..
Complacency , A higher high and low were finally reached. The brutal sell offs had finally stopped. Support will hold.. right? The majority were in a state of Complacency . See image here:
Anxiety , After forming the higher high and higher low, we're struggling to get back above the first support we failed, What do I do now? What is going to happen? Am I going to make a mistake? What if price rockets after I sell? What if I don't sell and price drops. At this stage, the majority were feeling a lot of Anxiety . The head and shoulders that has been forming was looking to complete.. I had to convince someone I lived with at the time, it was finally time to sell before. He literally suffered from both FOMO and FONS at the same time.
Denial , Support just failed. Most stared at their portfolios in Denial that we were heading down much further yet. Supports failing one after another. The momentum was so great and swift that most did not know how what the right move was. Denial that they hadn't sold earlier at the clear signals to exit. And were failing to see what was playing out right infront of them, a bearish pennant, and two failed double bottoms / adam and eves. See image here:
Panic , Support failed, which turned resistance.. price can't seem to get back above.. but also won't drop below the current support.. a state of panic follows.. people began to Panic sell, and others were Panic buying thinking they were catching a falling knife chasing a dead cat bounce.. to only have price continue to drop past previous supports. See image here:
Capitulation , No supports held long, emotions are high.. words like ponzi, scam, manipulation etc were used to describe the market movements as some were coming to terms that they had been in Denial and did not want to lose further funds so they sold to save the last of their portfolios finally surrendering to Capitulation . Price dropped 40% in less than a week. See image here:
Anger , A dead cat bounce followed Capitulation . Climbing nearly 100% in exactly two weeks. It hit resistance hard but failed to get over, sending price back down, creating yet another double bottom / adam and eve and inverse head and shoulders which failed and sent price diving. Once a local bottom was found, buyers in large volume appeared in April, there was buzz back in the market. Joe Perl and I assumed April would be a target/local/temporary bottom for Bitcoin based off a large descending wedge that was also playing out. However, months went on, and lower highs kept forming and slightly higher lows also. Until a Death Cross on the 3 day chart seemed to be enough to throw us off the edge, sending us further down. Reaching $3,200USD. Price has since inclined and broken above long term trend descending resistance. See image here:
Depression , With very few people left in the market in comparison to the major bull run, most with wounds of massive losses in both loss of profit and loss of funds left the market. and still call it a ponzi, scam etc. Some suffering from deep Depression , and a few even taking their own lives who were highly over invested or apart of elaborate scams.. I believe we're currently going through this phase. sooner or later, we'll start to reach a state of disbelief. I feel we're getting to that point now with many calling the market bottom, and many thinking we're going to leg down again. See image here:
Once we reach Disbelief again, the cycle can start again. Just because we end a bear market though, does not mean we'll automatically resume a bull market.
Something a lot of traders need to learn is "Price vs Time". There is no schedule other than Bitcoin's halving that may change price. Everything else comes down to supply vs demand.
I hope breaking this meme psychology chart down shows you just how psychology, sentiment, technical and fundamental analysis impacts the chart. But, regardless of the all the fundamentals.. The chart never lies.
Thanks for taking the time to read this.
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CADCHF - Can The Bears Override The Bulls ? Okay, so not a pair I usually trade or analyse but it was requested and I humbly accepted.
So we can see bulls are in control at the moment, I see an upside move of around 80 pips before we can see a good reversal zone met. I will be looking for the descending trend line to be respected between the 71%-88.6% Fibonacci zone. This will also be a good rejection from the weekly key and we can look for bearish candle stick patterns to indicate a reversal and then our next Lower High will be confirmed. This will then be anticipating a Lower low to continue the downtrend and we can see price drop of around 250 pips. Stop losses will be just above the weekly key.
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Psych Hack #0005 - Learning to play.In this educational screencast I answer some of the issues I've been asked about by new traders. I emphasise in that profitability it is not mainly about methodology or indicators. It is about something pretty nebulous and unseen.
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