Overcoming Emotions and Zen TradingOvercoming Emotions
Most traders want to "overcome" their emotions. They view thoughts and emotions as the enemy which prevents them from succeeding in the market. This is a false perception. Yes emotions and thoughts can lead to actions in the market, but they are impossible to remove. So long as you are human you will have emotions and thoughts. There is an alternative to removing them, and that is to use them to your advantage in the market.
By practicing mindfulness, which is awareness of thoughts, emotions, and perceptions, you can learn to recognize how these affect your trading performance. By recognizing and being aware of them, you have a chance to change the outcome. For instance if you consistently enter poor trades due to fear of missing out. When you become aware of this fear you can learn to stop yourself from entering and avoid the poor trades that hurt your performance.
There is a direct correlation between how you feel about yourself or the market, and how you perform. If you are worried about money you will overly focus on risk or prices going against your position even if only slightly, and likely make a mistake by exiting too soon. Or you do not want to take the loss and will hold the trade too long, hoping the market will let you off the hook with a smaller loss.
What is Zen Trading about?
Zen trading is a mindset of flowing with the market without hesitation, being aware of and trading along side emotions, and making actions intuitively rather than forcefully. A Zen trader remains in a relaxed, effortless state of mind; without any internal struggle. He does not attach his self worth to his performance at any given time, and is unhindered by market outcomes. He acts on his edge when it is present without hesitating, and takes what the market gives him when it is time to do so. He trusts himself, his strategy, and the market to provide him with a consistent performance over time; whether or not he makes money on this trade, today, or this week. He is aware of the bigger picture; the Tao or life, and knows there is more to life than trading or money. Trading is not his life. It is simply something he does to earn a living, and he seeks to maintain a Zen spirit in his trading and actions in the market.
*If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
Psychology
Overcoming Emotions and Zen TradingOvercoming Emotions
Most traders want to "overcome" their emotions. They view thoughts and emotions as the enemy which prevents them from succeeding in the market. This is a false perception. Yes emotions and thoughts can lead to actions in the market, but they are impossible to remove. So long as you are human you will have emotions and thoughts. There is an alternative to removing them, and that is to use them to your advantage in the market.
By practicing mindfulness, which is awareness of thoughts, emotions, and perceptions, you can learn to recognize how these affect your trading performance. By recognizing and being aware of them, you have a chance to change the outcome. For instance if you consistently enter poor trades due to fear of missing out. When you become aware of this fear you can learn to stop yourself from entering and avoid the poor trades that hurt your performance.
There is a direct correlation between how you feel about yourself or the market, and how you perform. If you are worried about money you will overly focus on risk or prices going against your position even if only slightly, and likely make a mistake by exiting too soon. Or you do not want to take the loss and will hold the trade too long, hoping the market will let you off the hook with a smaller loss.
What is Zen Trading about?
Zen trading is a mindset of flowing with the market without hesitation, being aware of and trading along side emotions, and making actions intuitively rather than forcefully. A Zen trader remains in a relaxed, effortless state of mind; without any internal struggle. He does not attach his self worth to his performance at any given time, and is unhindered by market outcomes. He acts on his edge when it is present without hesitating, and takes what the market gives him when it is time to do so. He trusts himself, his strategy, and the market to provide him with a consistent performance over time; whether or not he makes money on this trade, today, or this week. He is aware of the bigger picture; the Tao or life, and knows there is more to life than trading or money. Trading is not his life. It is simply something he does to earn a living, and he seeks to maintain a Zen spirit in his trading and actions in the market.
*If you find this analysis helpful please like! Feel free to comment or ask questions.
OGI Weekly AnalysisOGI is starting to turn down from a nested wedge this week. So far this week is a strong bear bar near its low and is close to filling the 9.75 bull gap. This gap is likely to be filled as it is more likely an exhaustion gap than measuring gap. The bulls have reached a leg 1 = leg 2 measured move up which has led to some profit taking (tails above bars). If this week closes on its low, it would be a large low 2 reversal and nested wedge, making it a reasonable place for bulls to get out and wait for two legs sideways to down before the bulls are likely to return.
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Hope for the best, prepare for the worstHey everyone. It's been a while since I posted, I don't feel like I can live up to the quality of my last BTC analysis, which was PERFECT. If you haven't seen it, check it out.
But today I was thinking "There's no way this market is going to keep going up, because CNBC is talking about it, and everyone else is talking about it."
You see, in trading 90% of participants have to lose. So if more than 10% of people are thinking the same thing, they are probably wrong.
So I busted out my chart to try to anticipate what might actually happen. I figure for the next few weeks or months the market could stay flat, while all of the bulls BTFD (buy the f*cking dip). And then, just when everyone is feeling hopeful, the market might start sliding. People will HODL thinking it will still make higher lows, but sadly for them the market will keep on tanking until it makes lower lows. It's at this point people will say "Okay I was wrong" and they will capitulate. The market will rise, they will sell, and then the market will keep rising while they slap themselves for selling so low.
Of course, there's no way to know what's going to happen. It's literally impossible to be sure. But trader psychology is a great way to try to predict what might happen, because one thing is for sure in trading, it's not easy and most people will lose money.
That's all for now, please consider sharing if you got value out of this analysis. And don't forget to leave a thumbs up and follow.
I do technical analysis as a hobby. I like to learn more about markets and share my ideas with other people. But when it comes to real trading decisions I trust my trading algorithms more than my chart analysis. See my signature for more info.
Cheers!
Lessons from an Experienced Trader #2Lesson 4 Know what you want in the market
Contrary to what most believe, successful traders do not actually trade constantly. Attempting to trade constantly leads to increased commission costs, random trading, and compound mistakes. In fact, successful traders spend most of their time doing absolutely nothing! How long does it take to enter an order? A click of the button. A few seconds. Maybe a few minutes at most to create bracket orders.
So what do Professional Traders do the rest of the time? They wait. They wait until the market offers what they want or are looking for. Then after entering they wait some more to see if they are right. They wait for the market to provide them with the information to either hold, or exit.
They allow themselves to Be, the trade to Be, the market to Be and do what it is going to do. They do not force actions or attempt to make the market do what they want. They wait until the action comes about on its own, until it is natural, a reflex.
If you do not know what it is in the market that you are looking for, you will fold under pressure and confusion. A Professional Trader knows exactly what he wants (not just to make money), he knows what he is looking for in the market, and is willingness to wait for it to arrive. By doing so, he is rewarded and paid by the market for his patience and willing to do nothing. Even if this means not trading for hours, days, or even weeks depending on the time frame.
It is far better to do nothing and avoid unnecessary losses, than to try and create tensions, forced actions, and lose money. You have to ask yourself "What is more important? The actual act of trading, or making money?"
Lesson 5 Define your edge
An edge is what you have defined as being what you want from the market in the previous lesson. This can be anything from a specific setup, to just plain context like a strong market. If you do not know what your edge is, you will struggle to perform consistently due to randomness.
Many new traders, especially those who follow price action, believe they should be able to trade the market no matter what the context is. If you think you are just going to walk in to the market, trade based on whatever the market is doing and make money; you are fooling yourself. Doing so will lead you to trade randomly, entering willy nilly at the market, and make many mistakes which will cost you your profitability.
Do you walk into Walmart or Aldi's without knowing what you want to buy until you get there? No, you have a list of items, or at least an idea of what you need before you go. Do you start a business because you woke up this morning and thought it would be nice to own a car wash? Hopefully not. You first identify an opportunity, and then create a business model after a lot of research. Then finally you open the business.
Of course everyone thinks or says "well so and so does this and that, and he seems to be making money." Sure, maybe he is, maybe not. If he is, he has defined his edge and is simply employing it. What someone else does has absolutely nothing to do with what you should be doing.
Once you have defined your edge, you must wait for it to arrive. If the market is not offering what you want or what your edge calls for, you do nothing until it is. If your edge is a trend trading method and the market is in a trading range, you do not trade until the market is trending.
If you have not clearly defined your edge, you should not trade. If you do not know what it is in the market you want and are looking for, you have no business in the market. Simple as that. If you chose to do so, you are putting yourself at unnecessary risk and trading randomly. Yes this sounds harsh, but it is the reality of the market. The market will not give you anything, especially if you don't even know what it is that you want!
TSLA Weekly AnalysisBear breakout of TSLA, but increased and climactic selling last week and gap down this week. Likely a sell vacuum test of the $180 low. The $240 gap above will likely get filled over the next few weeks to months. The bears need a strong breakout below 180 and 140. Otherwise bears will start to take profits and bulls will re-establish long positions. What happens when strong bears and strong bulls buy? The market can only go up. Unless the bears can demonstrate significant strength here, the bulls are more likely to take back control within the coming weeks. Therefore the next few weeks are important for both sides, and will likely determine the direction of the coming months or even years.
IMPORTANT Understand How BITCOIN-WHALES Think! First down, then up, then down again and then up?? WTF? Did You See It? What Just Happened?
Whales, guys!
One of the biggest advantages of being a whale, is also their disadvantage. Yes, they can manipulate the market, but try to make 100% ROI on 50m USD in the Crypto Market!? Its obviously way easier to double your money if you start with 100 bucks.
Because the whale has a lot of money, they also need other traders (collectively) in the market with a lot of money, otherwise there will be no trade. That is not always easy - and its not at every price point people want to trade.
Example
We have more people trading at (liquidity) around 10,000 USD than 7128 USD.
And THAT, guys, is also why Whales always try to steer the market in a direction with high liquidity.
How A Whale Make Money
A part of a Whales strategy to make money is STOP HUNTING. They will try to liquidate you, or make you hit your Stop Loss because it will work as a sell or a buy, which will move the price in their desired direction.
How Whales Stop Hunt?
The most efficient way to liquidate people - both shorts and longs at the same time - is to make a sudden move first in one direction (through a key price point for instance 8,000 USD), and THEN back again through the same price point.
Why Is That?
The reason is simple - look at my chart. People usually place LONGS and SHORT around key support and resistance price points. And what about the Stop Loss? Yes, we typically put that on the opposite side of the resistance or support price point.
I have given some examples on how LONGS and SHORTS could be placed on either side of 8,000 USD, and also the stop losses on the opposite side. IF a WHALE manage to come from an uptrend and quickly go through 8k, and turn around and go back again through 8,000 USD he has NOW liquidated both the SHORTS and the LONGS.
Short Squeeze Party
The way our family made money on was just by swimming with the whales. I had figured out their plan. Due to the Disproportion between Shorts and Longs, the whales decided just buy up big, and make huge buy walls to induce the normal traders, and then just continue again and again, so we went all they way from 5k to 8,4k. Notice that this Stop Hunt ONLY killed Shorts.
Watch out for Key Levels as 8k
Here we have hugeliquidity, and the whales will try again and again to stop hunt espeically in this area, because its easy for them to make money on. You should ALWAYS be extra careful especially when you are trading on BitMEX or Bitfinex with leverage trading (margin trading).
Use it as an advantage
I have been studying psychology - I have been National Master in Chess and been a pro pokerplayer, so I have a pretty high interpersonal intelligence, which makes it pretty easy for me to figure out, what, why and how the Whales want to play, and what they are thinking.
When Im doing my TA, I always put the Whale mindset into my equation before I weigh all the information I have about the market, and then choose a direction!
PROOF
My Family knows this. Yesterday I gave them the signal, and told them that we would see a STOP HUNT down to kill the LONGS. And it happend. Today, I still believe we will go further down, and we might see another STOP HUNT.
Follow My Blue LINE to Understand how Whales operates.
D4
Please give a LIKE!
Bitcoin Daily Chart AnalysisBull breakout this week, second leg up; risky place to initiate longs (high risk, low probability). Bears trying for micro double top and double top bear flag with July 25 swing high, and parabolic wedge. If bears get strong close on low today, prices will likely test the bull gap from May 10th. The bulls need to generate strong follow through above 8500. Upside currently limited by resistance. If bulls get above 8500, the next target is the 11670 start of the bear channel where a large trading range is likely to form. However there has been strong buying pressure since the parabolic wedge reversal. The bulls will likely get a larger second leg up but pullback likely first. They will try to form a double bottom or higher low around 5000.
Lessons from an Experienced Trader #2Lesson 4 Know what you want in the market
Contrary to what most believe, successful traders do not actually trade constantly. Attempting to trade constantly leads to increased commission costs, random trading, and compound mistakes. In fact, successful traders spend most of their time doing absolutely nothing! How long does it take to enter an order? A click of the button. A few seconds. Maybe a few minutes at most to create bracket orders.
So what do Professional Traders do the rest of the time? They wait. They wait until the market offers what they want or are looking for. Then after entering they wait some more to see if they are right. They wait for the market to provide them with the information to either hold, or exit.
They allow themselves to Be, the trade to Be, the market to Be and do what it is going to do. They do not force actions or attempt to make the market do what they want. They wait until the action comes about on its own, until it is natural, a reflex.
If you do not know what it is in the market that you are looking for, you will fold under pressure and confusion. A Professional Trader knows exactly what he wants (not just to make money), he knows what he is looking for in the market, and is willingness to wait for it to arrive. By doing so, he is rewarded and paid by the market for his patience and willing to do nothing. Even if this means not trading for hours, days, or even weeks depending on the time frame.
It is far better to do nothing and avoid unnecessary losses, than to try and create tensions, forced actions, and lose money. You have to ask yourself "What is more important? The actual act of trading, or making money?"
Lesson 5 Define your edge
An edge is what you have defined as being what you want from the market in the previous lesson. This can be anything from a specific setup, to just plain context like a strong market. If you do not know what your edge is, you will struggle to perform consistently due to randomness.
Many new traders, especially those who follow price action, believe they should be able to trade the market no matter what the context is. If you think you are just going to walk in to the market, trade based on whatever the market is doing and make money; you are fooling yourself. Doing so will lead you to trade randomly, entering willy nilly at the market, and make many mistakes which will cost you your profitability.
Do you walk into Walmart or Aldi's without knowing what you want to buy until you get there? No, you have a list of items, or at least an idea of what you need before you go. Do you start a business because you woke up this morning and thought it would be nice to own a car wash? Hopefully not. You first identify an opportunity, and then create a business model after a lot of research. Then finally you open the business.
Of course everyone thinks or says "well so and so does this and that, and he seems to be making money." Sure, maybe he is, maybe not. If he is, he has defined his edge and is simply employing it. What someone else does has absolutely nothing to do with what you should be doing.
Once you have defined your edge, you must wait for it to arrive. If the market is not offering what you want or what your edge calls for, you do nothing until it is. If your edge is a trend trading method and the market is in a trading range, you do not trade until the market is trending.
If you have not clearly defined your edge, you should not trade. If you do not know what it is in the market you want and are looking for, you have no business in the market. Simple as that. If you chose to do so, you are putting yourself at unnecessary risk and trading randomly. Yes this sounds harsh, but it is the reality of the market. The market will not give you anything, especially if you don't even know what it is that you want!
Lessons From an Experienced Trader #2Lesson 4 Know what you want in the market
Contrary to what most believe, successful traders do not actually trade constantly. Attempting to trade constantly leads to increased commission costs, random trading, and compound mistakes. In fact, successful traders spend most of their time doing absolutely nothing! How long does it take to enter an order? A click of the button. A few seconds. Maybe a few minutes at most to create bracket orders.
So what do Professional Traders do the rest of the time? They wait. They wait until the market offers what they want or are looking for. Then after entering they wait some more to see if they are right. They wait for the market to provide them with the information to either hold, or exit.
They allow themselves to Be, the trade to Be, the market to Be and do what it is going to do. They do not force actions or attempt to make the market do what they want. They wait until the action comes about on its own, until it is natural, a reflex.
If you do not know what it is in the market that you are looking for, you will fold under pressure and confusion. A Professional Trader knows exactly what he wants (not just to make money), he knows what he is looking for in the market, and is willingness to wait for it to arrive. By doing so, he is rewarded and paid by the market for his patience and willing to do nothing. Even if this means not trading for hours, days, or even weeks depending on the time frame.
It is far better to do nothing and avoid unnecessary losses, than to try and create tensions, forced actions, and lose money. You have to ask yourself "What is more important? The actual act of trading, or making money?"
Lesson 5 Define your edge
An edge is what you have defined as being what you want from the market in the previous lesson. This can be anything from a specific setup, to just plain context like a strong market. If you do not know what your edge is, you will struggle to perform consistently due to randomness.
Many new traders, especially those who follow price action, believe they should be able to trade the market no matter what the context is. If you think you are just going to walk in to the market, trade based on whatever the market is doing and make money; you are fooling yourself. Doing so will lead you to trade randomly, entering willy nilly at the market, and make many mistakes which will cost you your profitability.
Do you walk into Walmart or Aldi's without knowing what you want to buy until you get there? No, you have a list of items, or at least an idea of what you need before you go. Do you start a business because you woke up this morning and thought it would be nice to own a car wash? Hopefully not. You first identify an opportunity, and then create a business model after a lot of research. Then finally you open the business.
Of course everyone thinks or says "well so and so does this and that, and he seems to be making money." Sure, maybe he is, maybe not. If he is, he has defined his edge and is simply employing it. What someone else does has absolutely nothing to do with what you should be doing.
Once you have defined your edge, you must wait for it to arrive. If the market is not offering what you want or what your edge calls for, you do nothing until it is. If your edge is a trend trading method and the market is in a trading range, you do not trade until the market is trending.
If you have not clearly defined your edge, you should not trade. If you do not know what it is in the market you want and are looking for, you have no business in the market. Simple as that. If you chose to do so, you are putting yourself at unnecessary risk and trading randomly. Yes this sounds harsh, but it is the reality of the market. The market will not give you anything, especially if you don't even know what it is that you want!
Lessons from an Experienced Trader
Lessons from an experienced trader.
Lesson 1. Never scalp.
Although scalping seems to be the most profitable and best method in today's market, it is certainly not. Scalping is the hardest method to achieve a consistent performance. High frequency trading firms scalp, but they have many advantages over the retail trader including direct access to exchanges, highly developed algorithms with no emotions, and extremely low costs to name a few. When you are scalping you are competing against these firms or trying to manually do what they do with a computer.
This above is only one problem. The bigger issue is the risk involved. When scalping, you must use a wide stop and be willing to scale in. One bad trade will erase 20 or more good trades. You must be extremely proficient at reading price charts, and be able to act without hesitation. This is virtually impossible for anyone who has not been trading for at least 3 years and has done extensive work on himself to develop the ability to flow with the market, constantly, without any internal conflict.
And worst of all, scalping leads to bad habits. Once you get into the mindset of "get out quick" it is very hard to correct down the road. This makes swing trading more difficult later on after you realize it is a better method.
Lesson 2. Swing Trade the best setups
Swing trading is much more forgiving than scalping, offers a larger reward, and allows for a smaller risk (usually). This makes it much easier to make money long term. When swing trading you only have to win on around 40% of your trades to make a profit. If you can develop the patience to wait for strong setups, you can increase the winning percentage to anywhere from 50-70% and greatly increase your traders equation.
A swing trading approach is also more forgiving when it comes to reading price charts. Some of those who discuss Price Action would lead you to believe you can predict what the markets are going to do next. This is simply not true, no matter how good you are at reading a chart. There is always a degree of randomness in the market, with any edge, any setup, or any context. When swing trading, you can afford to be wrong and make mistakes.
So what setups should a swing trader take? Well, it depends if you want to always in trade or swing trade with signal bar stops. Either is fine, although an always in approach takes more practice and is harder to get right until you are good at reading charts.
An always in trader has two choices. One to take every logical reversal (hardest to accomplish), and constantly reverse when necessary. Or two; wait for the always in direction to be clear and enter any in any fashion until the market flips. The second method is easier, although still tough, and slightly less profitable. An always in trader does not trade when prices are in a trading range. The reward is simply too low, and there are too many reversals to take and that fail, resulting in repeated losses and increased commission costs.
What about a swing trader? A swing trader typically uses a signal bar stop, but can also use a swing stop to increase his probability. A swing trader does not have to take every trade he sees (unlike the first always in trader). In fact, it is best to wait for the best and clearest setups.
What setups are these? High 2's, Low 2's (large) reversals and flags, Wedge reversals and flags, failed breakouts, and failed reversals. The first two are much easier to identify correctly for someone with less experience. The later two often trick newer traders, or fail once or twice before succeeding, making it a bit harder to get right.
Lesson 3. Work on your self
Like discussed before, most new traders and even those who have been around but haven't reached consistency believe that eventually you can read prices well enough to predict what will happen next. It does not matter how long you have traded, you will never predict the market. If it were possible to do so, the market would cease to exist!
So instead of only focusing on reading charts and price action, you must work on your self. You must understand your strengths and weaknesses. You must be aware of your emotions and how they affect your performance. If you do not believe your emotions are directly related to your performance, you will not achieve consistency long term. We are all humans, a computer cannot do what I do. And you cannot remove emotions, no matter how hard you try to do so. So what is the alternative? Develop awareness of them, and use them to your advantage!
It is as plain and simple as this. Trading requires you to understand your self, on a deep and internal level. You must be in tune with your self and the market. If you chose to ignore this fact, you may succeed temporarily, but it is only a matter of time before your performance diminishes. In order to make a lot of money, you must feel you deserve it. If you do not work on yourself, this simply will not happen. Does a professional athlete become a star by waiting around for his coach to tell him what to do? No. He dedicates himself in every possible way to his sport, including conditioning his mind to outperform his competition.
Rather than waiting 2 or 3 years before realizing this, start working on your self from the very beginning. Not only will you become a better trader faster, you will become a better person; a better you.
Lessons from an Experienced Trader
Lessons from an experienced trader.
Lesson 1. Never scalp.
Although scalping seems to be the most profitable and best method in today's market, it is certainly not. Scalping is the hardest method to achieve a consistent performance. High frequency trading firms scalp, but they have many advantages over the retail trader including direct access to exchanges, highly developed algorithms with no emotions, and extremely low costs to name a few. When you are scalping you are competing against these firms or trying to manually do what they do with a computer.
This above is only one problem. The bigger issue is the risk involved. When scalping, you must use a wide stop and be willing to scale in. One bad trade will erase 20 or more good trades. You must be extremely proficient at reading price charts, and be able to act without hesitation. This is virtually impossible for anyone who has not been trading for at least 3 years and has done extensive work on himself to develop the ability to flow with the market, constantly, without any internal conflict.
And worst of all, scalping leads to bad habits. Once you get into the mindset of "get out quick" it is very hard to correct down the road. This makes swing trading more difficult later on after you realize it is a better method.
Lesson 2. Swing Trade the best setups
Swing trading is much more forgiving than scalping, offers a larger reward, and allows for a smaller risk (usually). This makes it much easier to make money long term. When swing trading you only have to win on around 40% of your trades to make a profit. If you can develop the patience to wait for strong setups, you can increase the winning percentage to anywhere from 50-70% and greatly increase your traders equation.
A swing trading approach is also more forgiving when it comes to reading price charts. Some of those who discuss Price Action would lead you to believe you can predict what the markets are going to do next. This is simply not true, no matter how good you are at reading a chart. There is always a degree of randomness in the market, with any edge, any setup, or any context. When swing trading, you can afford to be wrong and make mistakes.
So what setups should a swing trader take? Well, it depends if you want to always in trade or swing trade with signal bar stops. Either is fine, although an always in approach takes more practice and is harder to get right until you are good at reading charts.
An always in trader has two choices. One to take every logical reversal (hardest to accomplish), and constantly reverse when necessary. Or two; wait for the always in direction to be clear and enter any in any fashion until the market flips. The second method is easier, although still tough, and slightly less profitable. An always in trader does not trade when prices are in a trading range. The reward is simply too low, and there are too many reversals to take and that fail, resulting in repeated losses and increased commission costs.
What about a swing trader? A swing trader typically uses a signal bar stop, but can also use a swing stop to increase his probability. A swing trader does not have to take every trade he sees (unlike the first always in trader). In fact, it is best to wait for the best and clearest setups.
What setups are these? High 2's, Low 2's (large) reversals and flags, Wedge reversals and flags, failed breakouts, and failed reversals. The first two are much easier to identify correctly for someone with less experience. The later two often trick newer traders, or fail once or twice before succeeding, making it a bit harder to get right.
Lesson 3. Work on your self
Like discussed before, most new traders and even those who have been around but haven't reached consistency believe that eventually you can read prices well enough to predict what will happen next. It does not matter how long you have traded, you will never predict the market. If it were possible to do so, the market would cease to exist!
So instead of only focusing on reading charts and price action, you must work on your self. You must understand your strengths and weaknesses. You must be aware of your emotions and how they affect your performance. If you do not believe your emotions are directly related to your performance, you will not achieve consistency long term. We are all humans, a computer cannot do what I do. And you cannot remove emotions, no matter how hard you try to do so. So what is the alternative? Develop awareness of them, and use them to your advantage!
It is as plain and simple as this. Trading requires you to understand your self, on a deep and internal level. You must be in tune with your self and the market. If you chose to ignore this fact, you may succeed temporarily, but it is only a matter of time before your performance diminishes. In order to make a lot of money, you must feel you deserve it. If you do not work on yourself, this simply will not happen. Does a professional athlete become a star by waiting around for his coach to tell him what to do? No. He dedicates himself in every possible way to his sport, including conditioning his mind to outperform his competition.
Rather than waiting 2 or 3 years before realizing this, start working on your self from the very beginning. Not only will you become a better trader faster, you will become a better person; a better you.
Emini ReviewThe Emini reversed down from a failed breakout of the all time high, and nested wedge reversal. There are trapped bulls who bought the May 3rd high who want out. Most bulls used the new high to take profits as the market is likely to transition into a trading range over the next few months or even years. However this does not mean the bulls will not get another test of the high, eventually. But the strong bull trend is less likely to resume, and instead prices will likely remain in a large bull flag trading range, where bulls and bears buy low and sell high.
Bull gaps are starting to be filled (Mar 29), which is a sign of trading range behavior. The bulls need to keep the Mar 11 gap open to prevent the bears from gaining strength. The bulls want to form a double bottom around here or the previous swing low around 2725. If the bulls are unable to form a double bottom or higher low, the bears will likely get a test of the Jan 29 micro double bottom which is the start of the tight bull channel.
There has been some signs of buying pressure over the past two weeks or so (tails below bars, bears lacking strong closes). Yesterday closed on its low, but this was likely due to a magnet affect testing the small micro double bottom from March. However, the bears will likely get some form of a second leg down from the wedge. If the bears can prevent the bulls from reaching the May 3rd close, they will have an increased chance of a large sell off and test of the December low, and bottom of the developing trading range.
TLRY Weekly Analysis Parabolic Wedge Bull FlagTLRY has formed a second entry for a parabolic wedge bull flag and larger high 2, although a doji bar. If the bulls are unable to regain control soon - something is wrong with the bull trend premise. If the bulls do not return within the next few weeks, prices are more likely to be in a trading range and will likely test the tight trading range of the open around $25. If the bulls do generate strong follow through, they will likely get two legs up at minimum, and possibly bull trend resumption.
Is trading mostly psychology? Just thoughts.The craziest thing to me about trading is that so many traders will interpret the same exact chart in so many different ways. Some traders will buy and some will sell with both traders closing at a lost.Why does it happen well it could be many different reasons, but I bet the main reason came down to not handling your emotions.The first trader could have been desperate to make money so he didn't wait for the right setups .The second trader might have had a good entry but was way over leveraged and one small move to the wrong side could have caused a losing trade.Being desperate to make a lot of money fast maybe the reason why so many traders lose money. Comment below any thoughts you may have I am also looking forward to learn.
"The stock market is a device for transferring money from the impatient to the patient." – Warren Buffett
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TLRY Weekly AnalysisTLRY formed a parabolic wedge bull flag which triggered last week. So far it is failing and testing the bull breakout gap around $40. The bulls will likely try to form a second entry for the wedge bull flag within the next few weeks. If instead the sell off continues, prices will likely test the tight trading range of the open around $20 and from there enter a trading range.
Introduction to Trading PsychologyIntroduction to Trading Psychology
Learning to read a price chart takes a while, but is relatively straight forward. It is obvious learning how to read a price chart alone is not what leads to consistent profits. So, what is it that separates the very few successful traders from the so many failures? Is it their strategy, their money management skills, IQ, were they born with a different skill set than most, do they work harder than most, or are they just plain lucky? All of this sounds plausible, but are they really the driving factor behind consistent profits? The short answer is no, none of the above. Perhaps we have been looking for the answer in the wrong place all along. In fact, most traders never even consider the possibility that it is their attitude or mental habits which prevent their success. What truly separates the winners from the losers has nothing to do with external factors, but rather what goes on internally while observing and engaging the market, or in other words; a trader's mentality.
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Trading PsychologyMany traders seek consistency through the idea of mastering the markets. They consider them to be logical and therefore can be figured out. They believe with more knowledge of markets and how they operate, they will eventually make a consistent return. And so they continue searching in the markets for a reliable edge, or outside the market for a leader or guru to show them the way. They see their emotions as an enemy; something standing in their way of success, and so attempt to remove them completely; which is impossible. This idea, that the answer is out there somewhere, is a false belief. Most traders never stop to think that perhaps what they are seeking is already within themselves, right here. That all they actually need is to stop searching, and look within.
In order to succeed long term you must first understand your self and the relationship between yourself and the market. Your emotions, thoughts, and perception of the market, and how these relate to actions taken in the market place. If you do not believe these are directly connected with your actions and therefore performance, you will likely struggle to maintain a consistent performance. Rather than viewing your emotions as an enemy, learn to use them to your advantage. Learn to understand the circle or cycle between you and the market.
EURUSD weekly analysisThe EURUSD (weekly) reversed down from a failed bull reversal this week. There are bull gaps below which are being tested. The bulls will try to form a nested wedge bull flag reversal for a large second leg up soon. If it fails, prices will likely test the low of the previous range around 1.044. The bulls need to keep atleast the breakout gap around 1.080 open. If it is filled, the bears will have an increased chance of a bear breakout below the range and larger second leg down from the May 2014 selloff. For now prices will likely remain range bound as both sides fight for follow through.
TSLA weekly analysis Bear breakout in TSLA from failed double bottom pullback. Bulls could not even trigger the setup (last week). Bull gaps below likely to be tested around $225 and $200. TSLA was in a trending trading range bull trend, which is now evoloving into a large trading range. Until one side gets a strong breakout, prices will likely remain range bound within a larger range made up of both trading ranges. If bears get strong follow through next week, prices will likely test the most recent higher low around $200, and possibly all the way down to the $125 start of the bull trend.
CGC weekly analysisCGC
Bull breakout from high 2 / nested wedge bull flag at EMA. Prob second bull leg up from Dec rally, but selling pressure above around $52. Mostly sidways in a large trading range since July 18. Probably some profit taking here or new all time high.
CRON weekly analysisCRON
CRON reversed down from a parabolic wedge and tested below the 1/28 bull gap and the previous all time high. Bulls still have gaps open below and are currently trying to close the bar on its high for a high 2 buy setup off the EMA. But decent selling pressure over past few weeks, possible second leg down before bulls return.