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Psychology

Comprehensive Trading ProcessDisclaimer: If you are primarily interested in copying other people’s trades then this is not for you. However, if you are willing to put in the work that it takes to learn how to trade for yourself then you have found the right place! Nevertheless please be advised that you can give 10 people a profitable trading strategy and only 1-2 of them will be able to succeed long term. If you fall into the majority that tries and fails then I assume no responsibility for your losses. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. Consensio: (King) 5% when Price crosses Short Term MA | 10% when Price crosses Medum Term MA | 15% when Short Term MA crosses Medium Term MA | 20% when Medium MA turns over | 25% Price cross Long Term MA & Long MA flattens / turns over| 25% Golden Cross Patterns (Queen): Favorites: hyperwaves, parallel channels, descending triangle, head & shoulders, Wyckoff’s, double bottoms & tops, flags | Least favorite: symmetrical triangle Horizontals (Rook): Horizontals > trend lines Trendline (Bishop): Very powerful when used in combination with Consensio. One of my favorite setups is a trendline break alongside a reversal in Consensio. Parabolic SAR (knight): Best tool I have found for setting / adjusting stop losses. Can also be used as no trade zone. For ex: if wanting to go long and SAR is bearish (above price) then could / should wait for SAR to break before entering. BTCUSDSHORTS (pawn) : If shorts are at / near ATH’ levels then I do not want to be short and will actually have a bias for going long. Funding Rates (pawn): Helps me to understand supply / demand. When shorts are getting expensive then I expect a short squeeze to be around the corner. Contango / Backwardation (pawn): Not a timing indicator. Is used to determine bullish / bearish bias and can help to identify tops / bottoms / support and resistance. Watch the video series and Google “Ugly Old Goat Backwardation” to learn more. TD’ Sequential (pawn): “The trend is your friend until it’s about to end” -Tom Demark | Used to identify when a trend is becoming exhausted which can be very helpful to confirm or deny an entry. Ex: if wanting to go long on a green 7/8/9 then would strongly prefer to enter on correction that is expected to follow. Average Directional Index (pawn): Used to identify when trends are becoming exhausted. When ADX’ reaches resistance / ATH levels then it is likely that the trend is reaching a point of exhaustion Ichimoku Cloud (pawn): Starting to use traditional settings across the board. Crypto settings seem to make the cloud useless when markets are volatile, whereas the traditional settings seem to line up nicely with the MA’s I use for Consensio. Price Action (pawn): Helps me understand when markets are overbought / oversold in the short term. In my experience it is very rare for Bitcoin or Ethereum to move more than 10% in 24 hours. Therefore if I am wanting to enter long and the price is + > / = 7% in the past 24 hours then I will be very cautious and usually wait for a pullback / consolidation. Bollinger Bands (pawn): Very helpful for recognizing when a trading range is coming to an end, which can be very useful for spotting trends that are just starting / about to start. Also like the Bollinger Band % to help illustrate extremes. Relative Strength Index: Divergences can be very useful for understanding short term price movements and potentially full on reversals. When markets are moving I like to check the RSI on the 1h and 4h charts and pay close attention to divergences as indication that a trend could be exhausting. Stochastic Oscillator: Very useful in trending markets that have not gone parabolic. Can be helpful in ranging markets as well, but not nearly as much. Can get some very good signals on the 3d chart. If there is a buy / sell signal then I think it is best to wait for %K and %D to cross the boundary lines before considering it significant. Hierarchy of Indicators The best traders know which indicators are most important at which times. A trader is like a carpenter and the indicators are akin to his toolbelt. Through experience he or she knows which ones to reach for, exactly how they are used and what adjustments could be required for a specific circumstance. It is one thing to understand that an MA rolling over is an indication of a trend reversal. It is entirely another to fully believe it and be able to act on it. Next is understanding which indicators can be disregarded at which times and which should always be taken into account. Above lists my indicators by order of importance. However that is only a default and it will change based on market conditions. For example: if a hyperwave is present then patterns become more important than Consensio and trendlines become more important than horizontals. If market is parabolic then I find the Stochastic useless and will adjust the settings on the RSI to 30. If no trend is present then the Bollinger Band can go from a pawn to the King. It would take much too long to go into all of the different variables I can think of and how it can change the hierarchy of indicators. What is important is that you start to develop the feel for it yourself. The only way I know how to do that is through checking all of them on a regular basis, in all different types of markets (bull, bear, flat, parabolic). Learn -> Practice -> Fail -> Learn -> Practice -> Understand -> Apply -> Internalize -> Believe -> Achieve -> Fail -> Learn Monthly, Weekly & Daily Processes Daily Check daily close every day. If entry or exit was signaled then make sure to get filled within 30 minutes of close. If passing on an entry signal then notate why. Never pass on exit signal. Update trading ledger to reflect any changes (I will be posting my results in the 2 > 20 Bitcoin Trading Challenge). Go through the TA Process listed above on a daily basis (I post my analysis in the Bitcoin' Daily Update). Make sure that you are highly focused during the candle close otherwise the mistakes will compound. I prefer to go to the gym on a daily basis and be disciplined about my diet in order to maintain a high level of focus. I have also committed to a daily hot springs meditation session that has proven extremely valuable over the past year. For anyone that watches Mr. Robot think of Tyrell Wellick chopping wood while confined by himself in the forest. Having a task that is repeatable on a daily basis provides balance, perspective and focus. I find a consistent sleep schedule to be vital in my performance as a trader. I make sure that I am in bed by a certain time so that I wake up feeling refreshed / energized and ready to trade. Weekly On Sunday I will analyze the weekly chart instead of the daily chart. Trading ledger that gets updated daily is used for weekly PnL statements which get done on Saturday morning instead of preparing for traditional markets to close. I keep an excel spreadsheet for each exchange I trade on and include sections for Date, Entry, USD Inventory, BTC Inventory, Withdrawals, Delta, PnL, Unrealized PnL, In position. When I first got into crypto I completely disconnected from my friends and family. To ensure the first doesn't happen again I commit to two social activities per week and for the latter I commit to calling my mother every Sunday. Monthly Review biggest trades from prior month. Dissect entries, exits and position sizes. Everything should be repeatable / explainable in hindsight. If it isn't that means I didn't stick to the guidelines and that is mistake. I cannot expect to be a perfect trader, however I can expect to learn from my mistakes. Monthly Best & Worst Dressed List. After reviewing the trades find the best and worst examples. Print out the charts, notate why they made the list and put them in a binder. In the short term, how I trade is exponentially more important than how much money I make or lose. Therefore if the monthly PnL was subpar but very few mistakes were made on the worst dressed trades then I consider that a huge success and will expect the variance to even out in the medium - long run. Weekly PnL statements is used for monthly PnL statements -It feels really good to make a lot of money and it can feel very frustrating when results do not meet expectations. This is why I believe that is it vital to focus on the process and improving instead of the results. A few good results could be the byproduct of luck. One good / great process will lead to sustainable results as long as you can remain disciplined / diligent. While some may prefer to be lucky rather than good I strongly prefer to put in the effort that it takes to be good. Furthermore luck seems to be attracted to those who put in the consistent effort. Nevertheless I still track short term results because I have bills to pay. Eventually I would like to only pay attention to annual results. “So you want to be a carpenter, do you? Well it takes more than a hammer, boy, you're gonna need blueprints and a will to build, and Straighten your cap! you look like you've been through a war. Wipe that grin off your mug, you got a sturdy frame? Sluggish posture just won't cut it. You're gonna need schooling, and, and, and take notes! And god if I catch you yawning again you're gonna regret ever asking for my help, And dammit you gotta hustle, this is a slacker-free zone And, where's my pencil? go get your hard-hat, here's a nickel, go get us a ruler and a saw and a drill and lots of graph paper!” -Aesop Rock
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Sawcruhteez
5
WALL STREET: The future is the past - possiblyIn this screencast I look back to 2008 to get an idea of what happened in the last crash. As I'm in a lot of positive equity, I don't want to become complacent in my trend following. So - I've looked back to see the sort of bouncing around of price I could expect (if the current picture unfolds similarly). To be clear, I am not saying that what happened in 2008 will happen again. I am simply looking at patterns on daily time frame, to avoid any unconscious expectation that price will just go down in a simple stepwise manner. Why might I come to an 'unconscious expectation'? Because I know not the psychology that affects me and loads of other people. I know that lots of equity gains can have an almost hypnotic effect. I've been there done that, been burnt, and worn the T-shirt etc. So - this time around, I ain't letting 'no' market hypnotize me!
OANDA:US30USDShort
by Captain_Walker
What is the probability of a pullback? Cut your losses smartlyIf people expect an Inverted Head & Shoulders, chances could be very meager in terms of probability. What is the % of chance that we go back to 12xxx? How much time would it take? What would be the bullish triggers, if any? The markets took quite a bit of time and strength to break through the support I've drawn around 11183. If you were long above any support lines and didn't cut, unless you are playing huge bets and that everything is still going according to your original plan, then you should consider cutting quickly any losses from long positions above the support that could become a resistance. Accept the losses, and go again with the trend afresh. You don't want that burden. If anyone tells me that the current daily trend is bullish, then I should reasses my understanding of a bullish trend. Be nimble in cutting losses when it clearly goes against you. There's a lot of readings about risk and money management that are available. Don't let cognitive biases overwhelm you.
FX:GER30
by UnknownUnicorn569872
IMPROVE YOUR TRADING PSYCHOLOGY NOW / VIDEO / EDUCATIONALHey TradingView In this video I will be going over a swing trade from this week and breaking down how this trade could impact a trader's psychology both positively and negatively. I also cover some easy to implement strategies that will make it much easier for you to let your winners run. It really bothers me how little attention seems to be devoted to trading psychology. This is by far the hardest thing for most traders to grasp and master. Please take a look at this video and let me know if it is able to help you.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by ImreSG
2
Bitcoin is bouncing, is this the bottom? Is this the same question you were asking yourself (and others) when the price of Bitcoin was 6000? And when the whole space said it was, what did that do for you? What would the claim that this is the bottom do for you now? Trading is reacting, not predicting. Nobody knows if this is the bottom, people may have reasons to think it is or isn’t, but nobody knows. So the question “Is this the bottom?” is a fairly pointless one. I have reasons to believe this is not the bottom (see previous posts for those), but that may change next week (depending on what happens). If we reach 10000 by the end of the week I can say with a fair amount of confidence that 3400 was the bottom, but what is the likelihood of that? You need to understand that language used in trading is a language of probability, not of certainty. Having that understanding will alleviate much of the frustration trading may cause you. So, without caring too much about whether this is a the bottom or not, let\s see if the market gives me any trade setups to trade. Because that is what I can trade, a trade setup, not a belief about where the market should bottom. Two days ago it was looking very bad, but todays bounce looks like a strong one. Not the end the bear market though, but it could take us as high as 5000, and maybe even 6000. But let me not get ahead of myself. The daily chart shows a nice break of the IBR, which I suspect will result in more upside. Mondays candle got me scared of more downside, but yesterdays hammer and todays strength are good to see. The market was extremely overextended and in need of some reset, and its finally here. To trade this I’m waiting for a setup on the 4HR chart to materialise before entering anything to the long side. The 4HR chart is interesting. The bull divergence gives this bounce some nice momentum to the upside and its crossed the trend cloud and moving into the resistance cloud (kumo). What I’d like to see is price bouncing finding resistance at the kumo and coming back to the trend cloud for support. If that happens the indicator will most likely signal a long setup, and possibly a long entry signal at the trend cloud. Unfortunately, the market is rare so accommodating so I’ll have to watch and see how price reacts. If I don’t see a setup a signal, there’s no trade. FOMO is a terrible thing, and the key to getting rekt.. If you enjoy these setups and analysis please like and subscribe. It’s the easiest way to support my work and get spread this content further :) If you want to tryout the indicator and strategy, follow me and drop a comment or pm and I’ll get you set up. Stay calm, and happy trading! More information on the indicator can be found below:
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
5
Psychological trading hack #0002 (educational)In this screencast I share some of my own personal journey which I suspect may resound with many a struggling trader out there. This post is in keeping with the house rules on text-based analyses, and psychological self-analysis is the biggest most important aspect of trading. It is clearly in the category of 'Beyond Technical Analysis' I had been thinking for many days where to start with this journey. This morning I hit on it. It is about me! Not about charts and methods. So that's where I start. I share this for the benefit of all traders and especially new traders. I'm not saying I am right about everybody. I only know about my own journey and I think there may be some 'psychological hacks' in all this, to curtailing much suffering among other traders. Everybody knows that discipline in trading is required, and that is primarily a psychological issue. Proven methodologies for profitability just do not work for a majority of people. So the big factor is 'the people' and what leads them to make bad decisions in trading. I've been tackling it. Join me on the journey. This could be (though not necessarily) the most important journey of all.
Education
by Captain_Walker
Bitcoin referenced with historical data.(A lost cause)people dont care for the technology really./ - "fact" A wild goose chase. Nothing more. This almost most accurate representation of previous Historical Pump&Dump take the levels with a salt of grain. nobody really knows shit.But we cant even tell whats going to happen in this moment in time how the fuk are we supposed to predict the future. TA only works cause people see this happened last thus this will happen this time.(this is also just a 50% probability.) At this moment in time sitting in my room I dont even know when Im gonna sleep its already 2:14 AM. I just wanna end with this note from "The office": "bears beets battlestar galactica.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by blankz13
BTC / USD Forecast - Bottom between 2018/11/25 - 2019/01/13BTC is in its final stages of the 12 months decline. We expect a bottom between the time frame around November 25th and January 13th 2019. Usually the Fibonacci fan is left earlier and prices dont follow until the end of the time target (in this case January 13, 2019). We expect a higher low around January 13, 2019. After January 13, prices have according to fibonacci, social mood and mass psychology the best setup for higher prices. The target to the upside is already set for 2019. Please be aware that time targets are more important than price targets in our forecasts. Nevertheless, we expect the price target around 4.200 at the moment. Feel free to join our Channels with weekly free forecasts: Telegram: t.me Twitter: twitter.com Our Webpage: cryptwaves.com Our latest and free Telegram XLM forecast: cryptwaves.com Happy surfing!
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by cryptwaves
2
A look at the most bullish weekly BTC chart of the past months!Hi Traders, Let’s look at the most bullish case you’ve seen for Bitcoin in the past months! This looks like a textbook market bottom, a nice bounce and now forming an ascending triangle ready to break out and start moving up again. I plotted Ichimoku on the charts, and as you can see, there are many bullish signs. The Tenkan is above the Kijun, and both are pointing upwards. Chikou span is above price, and the future kumo has turned bullish. These are all very good signs. If that was not enough, I can clearly see a beautiful ascending triangle form here, which has a 70% chance of breaking to the upside. Sure, we are still in the kumo, which means we’re not full on bullish yet, but all other signs are good. We should at least be heading to the first resistance level at the flat kumo. So ask yourself this: is this market about to break upwards, or down? I think most will agree with me that this is a very bullish looking chart. And I, and I suspect most other traders who know how to use technical analysis, am jumping to enter long on this chart! Now I also think that most of you are thinking why this does not look like your BTC charts at all. Well.. that’s because this is an inverse of the BTC/USD chart. It is 1/BTCUSD (multiplied by 4000000 to get the scaling right..). You can see it on the ticker Think about that carefully, if you are bullish on this chart, there is no way you can be bullish on the “normal” bitcoin chart. Unless you’re lying to yourself… Just some food for thought… take care, ZenTrader.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
5
Journey of 1000 psychological trading hacks.Join me - to boldly go where 'no man' has gone before. This is the Final Frontier. I take on the big issue - head on. This is the one that is more likely to make the biggest difference to achieving consistent profitability. I assert that it technical and fundamental analysis are not most important issues in trading - at all! If 'everybody' could simply do proper technical and fundamental analysis and make load of money, then everybody would be rich. It's never happened. It ain't gonna happen! I say that our enemies lie within. I say that dealing with the enemies within - by self-analysis, is the path to unlimited gains. AND - it's not just me saying so. Could this be your 'Mission Improbable' or your 'Mission Possible'? The choice is yours. This post is in keeping with Tradingview's text-based analysis guidance
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
ETP Long Play November 2018Going to play ETP long here. It does not look uber bullish but I think it has one final push up before a retrace. It is sitting on the 61% fib and hit the target of this down leg. So I think we are heading up the way. There is bullish divergence on the RSI. Shorts are at an all time high so are due a squeeze. If everybody is short then everyone is right and imo it is never the majority that is correct otherwise everyone would make money and not just the few. Zoomed out view with targets. Being a Zero-Sum game there must be winners and losers. Usually it is not the crowd that wins. Longs vs Shorts. Too many shorts! Shorts ATH Longs
ELong
by amutt
Money Management & Psychology 101SELF DEVELOPMENT/METHODOLOGY/PSYCHOLOGY Money Management/Psychology Cycle of Market Emotions The Upturn • Optimism: The normal financial specialist enters the market feeling hopeful. They may likewise have elevated requirements for the profits in which they are involved. • Excitement: When the market goes up, the desires begin to end up noticeably a reality and the financial specialist encounters commitment. • Thrill: The market proceeds up and the financial specialist is excited. • Euphoria: As the market achieves its peak, the financial specialist is euphoric and very certain that the market will proceed up. The Downturn • Anxiety: The market starts to plunge, producing sentiments of nervousness (Point 5). • Denial—The market keeps on falling, and the financial specialist experiences dissent with so many considerations as "It's alright, I'm in it for the long run," and "This is only a transitory misfortune," (Point 6). • Desperation and Panic—As the market cycles bring down still, sentiments of urgency and anger follow (Points 7 and 8, separately). • Surrender—Panic, in the long run, offers an approach to surrender when the financial specialist supposes "How might I have been so off-base? I cannot deal with being in the market anymore. I can't take any more misfortunes," (Point 9). The Bottom and the Recovery • Depression: While the financial specialist flounders in wretchedness (point 10), the market winds up in a sorry situation and offers a route to another bull. • Hope: As the market keeps on reinforcing, the financial specialist is confident that the market will proceed up (Point 11). • Relief: Once the market affirms it is in an uptrend, the speculator feels alleviation, however, they are as yet not sufficiently sure to contribute (Point 12). • Optimism: The financial specialist holds up until the point that they feel idealistic once more (Point 1 or frequently significantly later) before re-entering the market. As we portrayed over, this typically does not occur until the point that they have officially missed a huge bit of the up move, and their opportunity to recover misfortunes with it. Position Structure There are several trading software’s, which empowers the individuals to either structure or drive their framework by an individual or by position. Before the data is set-up in the control tables, an individual should choose which technique to utilise. The framework forms the data contrastingly relying upon the person’s decision. When the software is driven by an individual, work codes are utilised to arrange work information into gatherings. These codes are utilised to connect individual information to work information. When the software is driven by position, despite everything, work codes are utilised to make general gatherings or occupation arrangements in the association, for example, EEO (measure up to business opportunity) and pay review information.
Education
by SMPTrader
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 248)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - 3 Day Chart led to the following calls: < $5,750 by 11/15/2018 & my prediction for the bottom is $2,718 by 1/20/19 | My Bitcoin Bubble Comparison - Monthly Chart closely mirrored my price and time targets | Calling for $35 ETH before the end of 2018. Previous analysis / position: “If phase 2 doesn't hold then the target is phase 1, based on the rules of Tyler Jenks' hyperwave.” / Short USTD:USD from 0.968 with order at 0.97 to exit. Patterns: Testing bear trend after bouncing from phase 2 of the hyperwave Horizontal support and resistance: S: $6,338 | R: $6,470 & $6,815 BTCUSDSHORTS: Continues to fall toward support with no sign of reversal. TD’ indicates 2 days left to the downside Funding Rates: Longs pay shorts 0.0166% Short term trend (3 day MA): Bull Medium term trend (8 day MA): 8 Crossing 3. If it closes then bullish Long term trend ( 34 day MA): Appears to be flattening out, however if you use the Triple MA Forecast the next three candles are expected to continue to down trend. This is due to a few big green candles falling off from 34 days ago. Can find this indicator for free on trading view. Overall trend: There next three days will be extremely important to see if we can turn the long term trend up and make all of the trends bullish. For now I still view the overall trend as neutral. Volume: Starting to pick up ever so slightly. Still doesn’t resemble a bottom (low volatility and high volume) however it is better than nothing. FIB’s: Using Oct 15th candle) 0.5 = $6,483 | 0.618 = $6,405 Candlestick analysis: Broke through the top of yesterdays hanging man (invalidating it) and today’s today is nearly bullish engulfing (didn’t test below yesterday’s candle) | While typing this the 1h closed a bearish candle with the wick on top > the body Ichimoku Cloud: Trying to re enter 12h cloud, currently wicking off | 4h shows resistance quickly dissipating. TD’ Sequential: 4h g4 and 1h g2 show room left to the upside | Daily g5 agrees Visible Range: Looking back to last November the high volume node is 2X all other nodes and sits at $6,154 - $6,789. If the price closes above $6,789 at any point then that would be very bullish Price action: 24h: +0.78% | 2w: +0.15% | 1m: -2.17% Bollinger Bands: Still hasn’t tested the top of the daily band Trendline: Testing bear trend, watch out for bull trap Daily Trend: bull Fractals: Still haven’t broken up fractal at $6,497 RSI: Daily supported above 50 and has created a higher high | Short TF’s are not overbought Stochastic: Daily and 12h are approaching overbought zones Summary: This is the most interested I have been in watching the intraday Bitcoin' price action in months. After finding resistance from the bear trend two days ago we went on to create a higher low today (4h chart). The price is currently attempting to create a higher high and if the bulls follow through then that would be a breakthrough of the trendline. A clean breakthrough would come on high volume and then would have little trouble supporting a throwback (look for dragonfly / hammer of trendline support) which would create another higher low. Will that happen or will the bears hold strong at resistance? At this point I don’t think it is possible for anyone to provide more than a guess. Some made have better guesses than others, however even educated guesses lack subsistence and often do more harm than good. I strive for objectivity and will always avoid making subjective guesses. During times like this it is very important to stay on the sidelines and wait for further development. If you feel a strong impulse to get into action without a clear understanding of where the price is heading then you should use this time to develop the discipline required to overcome that urge to gamble. Either that, or you could play online poker / blackjack. There is nothing wrong with enjoying the gamble, however if you are trying to be profitable long term then a more professional mindstate is vital. Professionals are focusing on traditional markets while Bitcoin' figures out which direction it wants to go. At the time of this writing the Republicans have won 42 seats out of the 66 that have been declared. That is a good sign for the US markets as far as I am concerned and the markets responded favorably in the last couple hours of trading. The S&P' looks like it is ready for a strong rally tomorrow. However I remain convinced that the House of Representatives is the more important election. If the Republicans maintain majority then I strongly expect another 2 hours of a bull run in US equities. Based on the structure of the hyperwave, the next rally would be highly likely propel us into phase 4. If that happens then it will be hard for most to comprehend the potential upside. If want an idea look at Bitcoin's chart in November of 2017. That is where we went from phase 3 to phase 4 and the price proceeded to rally + 250% from prior all times highs.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by Sawcruhteez
Trend is your friend -[A lesson](NEVER GO AGAINST THE MARKET)EURAUD I learnt a lesson for lifetime here: I closed my short early around the 4th LL(MY TP had reached) : Now i wanted more so kept my longs but extinguished my Shorts. I had long positions buildup on every lower low considering the EUR to overpower AUD fundamentally. But it never occurred as you can see I did exit my longs during the Asian session as I saw the LL break but it was a fakeout for the session. In the End the fake move turned out to be the original move. How biased I became doing TA to justify My Longs and over 400$ in draw down(Wiping off all my gains for today and yesterday.) I made an A symmetric triangle for tend reversal then searched the web and realized it was a continuation pattern my mind played tricks on me. As soon as the Triangle broke I got out of the trade as I couldnt see my gains go to -ve.(So now im neutral for the week. All hardwork gone just cause i kept adding to my loosing position ) I even made a Inv H&S as you can see to justify that my long position was valid and shouldnt have closed em in loss. But thankgod I did Finally, friends be careful out there never go against the trend. So my holiday starts much sooner gonna take a breather here and start back again from monday. I Had my analysis of downtrend did take the trade. in-spite of that my mind kept playing tricks on me to add counter trend positions and IDK what I need to do to not make the same mistake again(Read more psychology books?) Any help would be wonderful.
Education
by blankz369
BTCUSD Bankroll Wizardry Trade Idea No.1 (BTC LONG - Long term) 4hr,1D,1W Chart looks great on all time frames. This is a longer term play 1-3 Months Target 4.55 R/R ratio with an Entry at 6450 A Safe R/R and Position sizing example for beginners: if trader X has $10000 In total and put $1500 on this trade the max exposure to loss would be only 0.69% of total trading balance. If you wish to risk more and subsequently increase your win if the trade goes in the direction of choice you can simply apply Leverage on exchanges such as Deribit or Bitmex (use leverage at own risk) Trade Target is right on the next heavy horizontal resistance line at 7790 - You can manage your trade as the price encroaches upon the resistance line to either change to a short position or exit the trade with profit and wait for a retest if the resistance line breaks and chose weather or not to re enter the trade if you believe the market is going to go to higher price levels. Just bear in mind your R/R ratio does change as price action developed and it would be wise to manage the trade accordingly until you have determined the trade is no longer worth the candle. Stop loss is placed at 2 horizontal support levels lower than the price action currently is. This gives us plenty of breathing room before being stopped out however depending on your risk taking characteristics you can move the stop to sub 6xxx levels if you wish as the 6000 area for BTC tends to absorb all downward pressure this year so far. All in all Shorting BTC anywhere under the 6400 Area has been more often then not a risky move and it is of my own personal bias based on Technical analysis and market behavior that i firmly believe that going long anywhere from 6000-6500 USD is a sound long term strategy Play it safe. Dont risk more moeny for the sake of it. Protect your capital. Preserve your Capital. Grow your capital - Bankroll Wizardry
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by Bankroll_Wizardry
2
Dow Jones (Wall Street) - crash is an irrelevant issue.I explain in the screencast why I think 'crash' is an irrelevant issue. It is impossible to know whether 'we're in a crash' because a crash can only be discovered well into into it or after it has happened. True trend-followers will appreciate that all one can do is find a suitable trend - and follow it. Simple but I didn't say it was easy. In fact I will assert that true trend followers really don't care whether there will be a crash or the next market melt up. What people (in general) want, is to be able to foretell the future. Sorry, they can't - and no guru has such powers. We might prepare for the future in various ways. This is not ordinary life. It's not everyday activities like trying to find the safest point in time to cross a road. The reality is that markets are wild random things - pure chaos of a different order - where the 'normal rules' we may apply in everyday life just fail miserably. As I've said in other posts, a whole new mindset is needed to manage this very different sort of chaos. With 76 to -90% of real trader accounts consistently losing money (hard data), the battle is not with the charts or the markets. The battle is with yourself and your psychology.
OANDA:US30USDEducation
by Captain_Walker
Blowing up accounts can be a good thingIn this screencast I show some of my positions which are mirrored on my live account. I say that blowing up Tradingview paper accounts is a good thing. The present account has not been blown up for about a year, which is much better than before. I used to blow up an paper account every 3 to 6 months before. It's a very safe space to gain experience, to fail repeatedly but learning from the 'punisher' (the markets). I show a couple key positions and how I thought about them. I assert that a bit of common sense is useful when you know the characteristics of the instrument you're exploiting. But learning how each instrument tends to 'behave' can only be discovered by spending time and interacting in the markets. So I don't trust Wall Street - at all! I'll tighten my stops more aggressively if I'm in a very favourable position. Same for Yen pairs and Gold. USDJPY is relatively tame compared to other forex pairs just from my experience on 4H time frames. I'm delighted to point the way for new traders. PM me questions if you wish but I don't give advice, sell signals or courses/services, or give hot tips. I believe in facilitating new traders to discover their own best methods which match their individual psychologies.
OANDA:US30USD
by Captain_Walker
Coinbase chart and two different attitudeI put two lines above the triangle: Red line: if red line is our big triangle line we didn't cross that line but there is a argument in which we have only to point of contacts and one of them is last tether pump and the other one is far away in the past. Blue one: this line has 5 point of contact and also it is more recently contacts. in this scenario we broke up this triangle. so what?! I think blue line is more significant but it may create this question in your mind that: "why we are confusing after breakout?" i think it's because of the fact that every trader put this line in different way and the pessimistic one's (obsessive traders!) always trying to put the lines in the way that they want. I mean you can move these line forever! this type of traders cant trade because they spend most of their time's to move the lines as price moves. please leave a comment what you think about this.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by farzinsabbagh
2
Bitcoin Daily Update (day 226)I believe that it is possible to beat the market through a consistent and unemotional approach. This is primarily achieved through preparing instead of reacting. Click here to learn more about how I use the indicators below and Click here to get my complete trading strategy! Please be advised that I swing trade and will often hold onto a position for > 1 month. What you do with your $ is your business, what I do with my $ is my business. My most recent Bitcoin Bubble Comparison led to the following predictions: 1 day - 14 days = < $5,750 | bottom prediction: $2,860 by 10/30 Previous analysis / position: “I no longer think that this selloff could be a fakeout. The reason being is how much time we have spent below $6,400 support.” / Short BTC:USD $6,330 | Stop loss was moved to slightly above breakeven on ETH:USD based on the 4h wicks, was triggered last night. Patterns: Descending triangle | Phase 2 hyperwave live Horizontal support and resistance: $6,250 BTCUSDSHORTS: Massive triangle starting to form. If daily candle closes above 39,750 then the target is 60,959. Funding Rates: Shorts pay longs 0.0263% 12 & 26 EMA’s (calculate % difference): 12: -2.30% | 26: -3.38% 50 & 128 MA’s: 50: -4.93% | 128: -6.36% Volume: Volume spike provides confirmation for my read that this isn’t a trap and also indicates that $6,500 - $6,600 should become very strong resistance FIB’s: 0.786: $6,259 | 0.618: $6,343 | 0.5: $6.402 Candlestick analysis: Re exploring wick from bullish spinning top, $6,327 will be the first line of resistance and I think it has a good chance of holding Ichimoku Cloud: D: Tenkan-sen at $6,469 will be apart of resistance cluster. Looks like it is starting to for C Clamp. 1h - 12h are bearish and the 1h has a thick cloud at $6,3227 - $6,436 TD’ Sequential: 1w: R1 | 1d: R4 | 12h: G3 | 4h: G4 | 1h: G5 Visible Range: Looking back 1 week: point of control = $6,272 and top of high volume node = $6,281 | Gap in volume up to $6,571 | Looking back 1 month the HVN’s pick up at $6,430 BTC’ Price Spreadsheet: 12h: +0.007% | 24h: +0.44% | 1w: -4.57% | 2w: -5.07% | 1m: -3.05% Bollinger Bands: Climbing back into daily band. MA at $6,515 will be apart of resistance cluster. Trendline: Bottom of symmetrical triangle at ~$6,550 will be apart of resistance cluster. Daily Trend: Chop Fractals: Down: $6,140 | Up: $6,701 RSI (30 setting): Weekly has fallen out of descending triangle and and is starting to turn over Stoch: Making bullish re cross on daily. 4h and 1h are overbought. Summary: Yesterday I outlined a possible short entry with a stop order at $6,239 and a stop loss at ~$6,330. If you took that position then the order should remain untriggered. If it were me I would leave it untouched since there is nothing that I have seen that would change my mind. I would also be fully prepared to sell $6,400 - $6,550. Whether that means limit orders on the books or price alerts is up to you. One of the hardest things about trading is waiting for your entry. Putting an order on the books and then waiting patiently for a fill induces anxiety, self-doubt and self-sabotage. That is one of the main reasons why I love trading! It exploits our most glaring weaknesses, exposes us for who we really are, and provides non-stop opportunity for personal growth. If you can learn how to establish a trading plan, prepare for an entry, place an order and then wait for > 24 hours for it to fill then you have more self control than the majority of gamblers and dopamine chasers. If that is something that you have trouble with then try it out. Start with a small position and then pay close attention to the thoughts, feelings and impulses that arise while waiting for a fill. IMO', one of the only things better than making money is learning and growing as a person/trader. Why do you love trading?
Short
by Sawcruhteez
4
TRON / DOLLOR - Hight Profitable Entries ! Hello again , Brothers and Sisters ! More Than a Gift For You Today ! This is a HIGHT Probability Profitable Long terme Investment Strategy ! In This Analysis you will found everything is clear with more details For you to undrestand how Thing are Made By Big Hands so you can change the way you see the market in a clear way! I will add Two Things - To Make Money, You have To Take Money - Big Hands Play on the Two Sides ENTRIES & INVESTMENT STRATEGY: Divide the CAPITAL to INVEST by 4 ; First Entry : You can Take advantge From current Price and Buy with 1/4 Seconde Entry : it's a Hight Profitabe Entry , is Buying @ the Last supp level with 1/4 Third Entry : a Hight profitable Entry Buying @ The breakout with 1/4 of The Range ( Target For DTOP HUNT THEIR AND Buying P3 TakeIn) Fourth Entry : The Last 1/4 Is in Case Big Hands Want More liquidity and Go to buy The SELL ORDERS ( exits) Bellow The Supp Lvl Good Target ==> So Two Senario, First is break the Range for The BUYING PRESSURE + STOPHUNT then May with Other Selling Pressure will come back to take The Selling Orders. Seconde Senario They will Take The SELLING ORDERS Before And Push For Buyin Pressure to Take More Liquidity From Breakout Traders @ the Supp Lvl and Boom get Traped; ==> In any Case Your Are a WINNER ! This Why : Look @ The Line in Chart @ The Price $ 0.000 !! When you look at this and you calculate the DownSide Versus the UpSide, it's pretty obvious. Let's calculate the DownSide First, where could the price Fall less than $0.0223 ? $0.0111 , $0.001 ,$ 0.0 ?! The Real DownSide in Reality is Very Small ! But What About The UpSide ? Well, your UpSide is actually Huge! ( it's infinite! ) SOME INDICATORS TO BOOST YOUR CONFIDANCE: Market Cap $1 463 838 053 USD => + $1.4 Billion Volume (24h) $174 029 230 USD => + $170 M Circulating Supply 65 748 111 645 TRX Total Supply 99 000 000 000 TRX ==> Look at The Numbers , Then Look at the difference Between The circulating and Total Supply ! + Put in your Mind That TRX consistently handles 2,000 transactions per second, 24x7. Which has surpassed Bitcoin and Ether . More details tron.network I Guess You Got It ! fqtalix@gmail.com Contact me For More Investment Strategies and Managment (Futures, currencies..) , How Take advantge From those Manipulations @ Lower Time Frame For DayTrader, Intraday Trading Concept for Scalping ( when you where wrong you could and with right) Thank You, Live Free.
BINANCE:TRXUSDLong
by fqtalix
RIPPLE / DOLLOR - Long terme investment Strategy !Hello Brothers and sisters again ! Here is my Seconde gift for you Today , an investment strategy to Take in Ripple for Long Terme First Take a deeper look at the analysis everything is clear about what happen mothns ago and what will happen days or months later I will add Two thing to boost your confidence : 1- Great Project those are hightlight features: USES CASES: Banks and Payment Providers XRP offers banks and payment providers a reliable, on-demand option to source liquidity for cross-border payments. BENEFITS: Fast Payments settle in 4 seconds. ( Faster than other top TOKENS) SCALABLE: XRP consistently handles 1,500 transactions per second, 24x7, and can scale to handle the same throughput as Visa.* DISTRIBUTED: Open-source technology, built on the principles of blockchain with a growing set of validators. STABLE: XRP's five-year track record of stable technology and governance makes it ready for institutional and enterprise use. 2- Market Cap + $ 18 Billion Circulating Supply 39 935 410 492 XRP Total Supply 99 991 826 231 XRP Max Supply 100 000 000 000 XRP So Tokens are Limitted => Demande will increase in the Future 3- Know that Risk is Subjective not Two Dimensional. Where could the price go in the Future ? When you look at this and you calculate the DownSide Versus the UpSide, it's pretty obvious. Let's calculate the DownSide First, where could the Ripple price Fall ? $0.4 , $0.3 , $0.1, $ 0 ??! The Real DownSide in Reality is Very Small. But What About The UpSide ? Well, your UpSide is actually Huge! THE INVESTMENT STRATEFY : It's Simple devide your X Cap By 3 or 4 and enter at different PRICE Level First : entry you can make it After the SELLING PRESSURE ( +Botom level) Seconde : after brakout level and if the QQE hit the confirmed oversold level JUST BUY, it's a Good entry Third : For more Selling pressure ( better Price) I guess you Got it !! Thank you live Free!
BINANCE:XRPUSDLong
by fqtalix