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Psychology

EURJPY Short IdeaSelling EURJPY at 131.9 Stop loss 132.2 (just below the quarter level) Target 1 = 131.3 Target 2 = 130.9 Target 3 = 130.6 Anticipating "Midweek Reversal" Setup with the divergence/double top occurring as well as the psychological effect of getting a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern at the 132 level while we are in an obvious uptrend Trading with real money involves risk. I am not a licensed financial adviser, nor is this analysis investment advice. Hold yourself accountable
by ZacharyHogan
2
Bitcoin's Reversal: A Story of EmotionsClearly Bitcoin's bears are having a crisis of confidence. Throughout this possible Inverted Head & Shoulders, they've been through a range of extreme emotions that have likely decimated their accounts. Head & Shoulders are distribution patterns that represent the distribution of control from bears to bulls or from bulls to bears. This inverted one has left the bears in a very weak position, and now, as this possible right shoulder is forming, they're beginning to wonder whether to become bull. No one really knows why a Head & Shoulders pattern looks the way it does, but looking at it through the lens of emotion can give us some insight, teach us how not to trade, and how to feel after the pattern has concluded. Left Shoulder: Confidence Bitcoin's drop to what is now the left shoulder was surprisingly deep. The $6,850 support zone was already on my chart weeks before, and it was the bluest blue support at the time. Yet the bears managed to break it down, and even the next strong support close by. This gave the bears an extreme amount of confidence. Confidence, however, is a dangerous thing. The bulls managed to pullback straight back to $6,850, the support that the bears fought so hard to turn into a resistance, now the reddest red resistance on my chart, forming the left shoulder. Head: Euphoria For the bears to not only succeed in breaking down $6,850, but to take down yet another pullback, and then to create an entirely new low for this year at $5,750 is quite a feat. Their confidence was only magnified into euphoria by this success. But if there's nothing more dangerous than confidence, it's euphoria. This left the bears in a position of complacency. They were assuming $5,000, but their dreams were swiftly torn away as the bulls defended $5,750 twice, and yet again pulled us back to the $6,850 resistance, putting the bears in crisis mode. Right Shoulder: Hope/Fear Managing to defend the $6,850 resistance for the second time probably felt like of sigh of relief for the bears, and gave them the most dangerous and vulnerable emotion possible: hope. However, extreme emotions in one direction can easily become extreme emotions in the other direction. The bears only need to slightest disturbance from their hope to become fearful. And if it's any emotion that creates extreme price movements, it's fear. The Reversal: Capitulation Bitcoin is slowly curling back up, possibly forming the right shoulder. This is possibly indicative of control distributing toward the bulls. The bears could not bring the price lower than they hoped, and now their hope could slowly be turning into fear. The higher we go, the more fearful they could become. If we reach close to $6,850, this is clearly not just a small pullback, so we can invalidate our Ghost Shoulder and Bruce Willis scenario. This will be the bears at their most fearful, and begin to exit their positions en masse as their fear turns to capitulation. How Not to Trade Like the Herd The bears' struggles throughout this Inverse H&S have clearly shown that extreme emotions are dangerous. So I pose this question to the bulls: How will you feel if we reverse? Will that confidence turn to euphoria? Will any defense of a pullback turn to hope? Part of trading is managing your emotions. This stops you from becoming complacent and following the herd. It also allows you to hold your biases lightly, admit when you're wrong, and enter or exit a trade accordingly. Seeing the valuation of your account go up after entering a position is only half of an emotion. The emotion is only complete until after you exit that position, not before. Catching a reversal is the best trade you could make, don't squander it by over exaggerating incomplete emotions.
Long
by BTC-Pizzaiolo
11
Getting ready for another drop. With a new resistance.I know it SEEMS like this is the area we will bounce around, but i think on balance of probabilities we will Find ourselves hitting a new low shortly. So far with every initial pump to begin a larger pump we have not had a divergence on the momentum as we do now. As well as that, every time we did have a dead cat bounce we DID have a divergence before a new low was made. With this is mind, I say get ready for a new low, and another bounce. It isn't even oversold on the daily yet, and yet here we are.
Short
by UnknownUnicorn2073191
5
Three things Mark Douglas taught me (Pt3)Trading Strategy The trading strategy of any trader is one that should fit him or her. There really isn’t much to this section as a plethora of trading systems can be on the internet. What matters the most is that your system has a risk reward ratio of at least 1/4. If you desire a profitable trading strategy I highly suggest Michael Covel's and Rayner Teo's style of trading. They are great traders. Please check out my other article as well!
Education
by ElieTheForexTraitor
2
SPX / H2 : Psychology inside the big range... From what I can see the US market is no longer bullish.. despite all the remaining sentiment I still think the right context is a range, and therefore applying trend strategies in there is the most stupid action to perform ! Trade according to the range strategy would definitely be the best option. Hope this idea will inspire some of you ! Don't forget to hit the like/follow button if you feel like this post deserves it ;) That's the best way to support me and help pushing this content to other users. All my scenarios and portfolio managements are explained in a daily basis on my Youtube channel. You'll find a link to get there in my profile signature here : @PRO_Indicators The English videos are posted upon the "Market Forecast (ENG)" Playlist. Kindly, Phil If you want to learn more about the basic rules to trade with my indicators here's the educational video link :
SP:SPX
by PRO_Indicators
1
Trading Psychology 5 Edge ExecutionEdge Execution Trading is a numbers game, and markets are based on the mathematics of the traders equation. However, understanding this alone will not guarantee profits. The ability to apply and conform to the math of the current market context is what leads to consistent profits. Beginners often have a misconecption that they need to know what is going to happen over the period of the next X number of bars in order to make a profit. They believe they must enter at the exact right time and price in order to win on a trade. This could not be further from the truth, and anyone consistenly making money from the markets knows the reality. The reality is a trader does not need to know what is going to happen next in order to make a profit. In fact, a professional trader knows that any given trade is irrelevant to the bigger picture, and an income is generated over a series of trades; not any single trade. This menatlity is past the duality of winning and losing, which are simply accepted as part of the job. This can be called the "probability mindset." Profits are generated over a series of trades, not any single trade. Therefore, it is not necessary to make money on every trade, every day, or even every month to be a succesful trader. It takes time to build confidence, believe this is true and fully understand this concept. Perhaps this is why most traders fail, by giving up before coming to this realization. It has been said that professional traders have "Won the game before they started playing." (Jack Swagger). This confidence can only come from the probability mindset, when a trader accepts he may lose on this trade, the day, or even this year. But he accepts his risk, and trusts the math that over time he will generate a profit. Even if he takes a large loss, or several, it does not matter; he knows he will make it back up. The overall point of this is that losses are part of the trading process. If a trade is a loser, it does not matter; move on to the next trade. Dwelling on losses or a drawdown does not bring the money back, but continuing to trade does. In this sense it can be said that a successful trader "trades his way out of a drawdown." It is helpful to think of losses as the "cost of doing business" just like any other business would incur expenses while conducting its operations. There are very few (if any) businesses that do not require heavy start up costs, or capital to continue the business while generating profits. Ever heard the saying "It takes money to make money?" Trading is no different, although most traders fail to realize this, and focus solely on profits. In trading, our costs are commissions and losses, which are offset by gains, resulting in a net profit. Employing your Edge So what does this have to do with exeucting an edge? Well, it is necessary to understand not every trade is a guranteed success, and there is a random distribution between wins and losses, with any edge. Even the best setup or edge will result in a loss 30-40% of the time. It is virtually impossible to know in advance, which trade will win and which will lose. Therefore it is absolutely imperative to take every trade that meets a traders edge, regardless of how the trader feels, thinks, or any other variables unrelated to the edge. With this said, here are the basic steps to exeucting and employing an edge. 1). Identify edge. Pick a setup (second entry, wedge reversal, follow through bar, ect.) It is a good idea to start with one until familiar with reading prices. 2). Ask yourself at the close of every bar "Is my edge present?" If no, wait. If yes, enter the trade. 3). Execute the edge with a series of 10 or 20 trades, document every trade. At the end of the series analyze results and tweak. Wishing you the best of luck on your trading journey -Josh Ridenour
Education
by tradersmentality
1
Trading Psychology 4 "Now Moment"Trading the "Now moment" Most of the time, prices do what they have been doing or normally do based on the current context. But what about when they dont, or instead do the opposite? For instance a strong bear breakout of a bull channel. Five minutes ago prices were rallying higher and higher, with no end in sight. Now prices are falling dramatically, what is a trader to do? Is he going to continue trading as a bull channel or trading range? Or does he exit his longs with a loss and sell at the market? Unless he accepts the reality that in a market truly anything can happen and anything is possible, he will more likely be unable to let go of the past and not willing to recognize the opportunity being presented right now. In this scenario he would probably fail to take the later action, and instead continue to fight the strong bear breakout because his mind is convinced prices are still in some form of bull trend or bull flag trading range. Until a trader truly accepts this fundamental point of market reality, it is easy to get caught up in what should happen and the true opportunity continues to elude him. The reality of the market is; every moment in the market is unique, and every opportunity has a different set of risk, reward, and probability. What worked today, may or may not work tomorrow. Most beginners fail to appreciate or even realize this is the case, as they attempt to apply rigid rules to a constantly changing environment. This prevents a clear, objective view of what prices are likely and not likely to do. As a result, this does not allow the trader to correctly identify the opportunity being presented "right now." Awareness A major obstacle to trading the "now moment" is where a traders awareness lies at any given time. Is he thinking about what happened an hour ago, or what may happen by the end of the day, or is he intently focused on what is transpiring in this very moment? Identifying and becoming aware of what is occuring internally while trading is helpful in this situtation. The idea is not to fight or prevent emotions from occuring, but rather acknowledge they are present and inturn may lead to a poor trading decision. Most trading errors are due to an emotional outburst or the traders awareness being somewhere else other than the market. Beathing exercises such as focusing on the breath and taking slow, deep breaths, can help ease the internal tension and return focus back to the market. This is a form of awareness training (mindfulness), which can help a trader with concentration and placing his awareness on the trading task at hand. It is also beneficial to practice some form of mindfulness outside of trading to become more intune with yourself, and ultimately the market. Trading along side stress / emotions What makes the difference between an amateur and professional trader is not the lack of thoughts, emotions, or stress. Professional traders too have these characterstics as we are all human, although they may be less obvious to the observer. However, a professional does not act on these feelings, and instead does what is necessary based on the market structure, not how he feels or what he thinks. He may find himself distracted with thoughts or an emotion, but then brings his awareness back to the trading task at hand. Amateurs do the opposite by allowing these feelings and emotions to lead to actions in the market, which more often than not are trading errors. Amateurs get stuck so to speak in the stress or emotion rather than the correct trade action. Moving past this is not easy, but returning awareness to the market rather than internally is the first step. An easy way of accomplishing this is to periodically throughout the day ask yourself "Where is my awareness?" or "Where is my mind?" The next question is, "What is the opportunity being presented right now?” or “What is the market telling me to do right now?” Continued...
Education
by tradersmentality
Trading Psychology 3 Fear Keys to building a strong Traders Mentality (Probability Mindset) There are many hindrences to developing the probability mindset, and it would be easy to write an entire book dedicated to them all. However most of these issues fall into four broader categories; fear, false beliefs, trading the "now moment", and edge execution. In the following paragraphs we will touch on these key issues and simple ways to address them. Fear As humans we all experience fear throughout our lifetime and so much so the "fight or flight" response has been genetically enbeded into our DNA. Many traders believe they will natuarlly be able to “trade as a computer” after X amount of practice or experience. They assume these components of human nature will eventually give way and soon they will be able to trade without fear or emotions. There is a problem with this theory. We are not computers, and never will be. We are human, which means we are susceptible to emotions and fear responses that are built into us. We are also far from perfect, and full of mistakes, furthering us apart from computers. With this said, it is extremely unlikely a trader will be able to over-ride his natural insticts without slowly and gradually changing his way of thinking first. The best way to overcome fear is through exposure in small doses. For example someone who is afraid of heights, is not taken to a fifty foot cliff and forced to jump off. And he surely does not overcome this fear spontaneously, or naturally after any period of time. Instead he is slowly exposed to heights and as he gets comfortable, taken to increasingly higher points. He may jump off a ten foot cliff, then twenty, and so on until he reaches the fifty foot cliff and jumps off. It is important to realize his fear was never removed completely, but rather he was able to cope with the fear and still jump. This model can be applied to trading, whether it is slowly building a position size, executing an edge every time it is present, or getting comfortable being in the market with looming uncertainty. Fear can often be debiliating, and is a major hurdle to overcome when transitioning from an amateur to professional trader. The most common result of fear is "anaylsis paralysis" where a trader is unable to make an action due to information overload. There are many different types of fear that occur while trading. Fear of failure, success, missing out, leaving money on the table, and mistakes, just to name a few. It is normal to feel uneasy when putting on a trade or while in a position. The problem lies within hesitation when fear prevents you from entering an otherwise reasonable trade, or any other necessary market action (take profits, cut a loser, hold longer, ect). If you find yourself not entering a trade, there are only two reasons why. First, the trade does not meet your edge criteria, which is a completley valid reason to not enter a trade. The second which is a problem, is fear. When a trader stops entering trades meeting his criteria due to internal fears, he begins to cherry pick trades, and skews his traders equation. This can mean the difference between a profit and a loss at the end of a series of trades. Understanding and recognizing fear within yourself and the market is vital to profitable trading. Awareness of fear within yourself is the first step to overriding and correcting it. And recognizing fear in the market is often a good opporunity to position a profitable trade. It can also be helpful to realize fear only exists in terms of one's ego and is not actually real, only percieved. Using "Halfsky" position to overcome fear Many traders experience fear and hesitation after a series of losing or winning trades. When he passes on a trade which works, he is upset he missed out. If he enters and loses, he is upset he gave back profits. This back and forth continues to build, and again leads to cherry picking trades as he believes he can identify w
Education
by tradersmentality
Trading Psychology 2 How Strong is your Trading Mentality?How strong is your Trader Mentality? Signs of an "Amateur Mindset" If you identify with any of these characteristics while trading, you are suffering from an Amateur Mindset. These are normal when first learning how to trade, and even common in advanced traders who have not yet mastered their trading psychology. Very succesful traders may still occasionally experience some of these symptoms while increasing positions, but as far as day to day, do not. Hesitation to enter positions meeting edge criteria Fail to exit trades not performing to expectations Feelings of fear (missing out, failure, success, leaving money on the table, etc.) Upset/mad when prices go against you or happy / relief when prices go your way The market is too painful to watch (pain avoidance) Market actions led by emotions / feelings / stress Forms and applies rigid rules for entry / exiting market Afraid to make mistakes / upset after mistakes Signs of a "Probability mindset" or Professional Trader Enters or exits trades without hesitation Does not experience internal conflict while entering, or managing trades Willing to take a loss (accepts his risk) Flows with the market seemingly effortlessly Not attached to outcome of any trade Emotions / stress do not lead to market actions Enters / exits however necessary Accepts mistakes and moves on Interestingly, it is easy to separate a professional trader from an amateur, not based on profits or losses, or the amount of ticks he makes a day; but based on his actions in the market. By observing how a trader interacts and engages with the market it is obvious if his actions were led by emotions or intuitively based on what the market told him to do at the time. Professionals flow with the market, and do not fight or resist it in any way. As a result money seems to flow effortlessly into their accounts, and their equity curve is that of a healthy bull trend. Amateurs are constantly fighting the market and themselves, with actions led by what they think, perceive as a threat, or the false belief that they know what is going to happen next. The outcome is a slowly depreciating account balance, and an equity curve that is flat or in a bear trend. The later is a sign of trading errors made by the trader and not that of an edge being executed properly. Continued...
AMEX:SDSEducation
by tradersmentality
Trading Psychology Introduction to Trader Psychology There is evidence of technical analysis dating back to the 17th century. The candlestick charts most of use everyday to trade were created in the 18th century by a Japanese rice trader. By this point one would think technical analysis should result in more profitable traders and lead atleast a quarter of price technicians to a profit. However, this is not the case and in fact the opposite is true as most traders fail, even after years of studying price action. With this said, it is obvious learning how to read a price chart alone is not what leads to consistent profits. So what is it that seperates the very few succesful traders from the so many failures? Is it their strategy, their money managament skills, IQ, were they born with a different skill set than most, do they work harder than most, or are they just plain lucky? All of these sound plausible, but are they really the driving factor behind consistent profits? The short answer is no, none of the above. Perhaps we have been looking for the answer in the wrong place all along. In fact, most traders never even consider the possibility that it is their attitude or mental habits which prevent their success. What truely seperates the winners from the losers has nothing to do with external factors, but rather what goes on internally while observing and engaging the market, in other words; a traders mentality. "If the next bar is a bull follow through bar, the bulls have a 60% chance of making a profit. If the next bar is a bear bar that means....." Absolutely nothing! Unless you can structure a trade plan, and abide your plan as the market unfolds, without questioning yourself or your plan, and execute it flawlessly. Most beginning traders believe if they study harder and learn more setups, they will eventually become profitable. This is the fallacy of price action analysis. In fact, most economists and price analysts do not make good traders. Why? Because they form rigid rules and ideas as to what prices should or will do, and in turn fail to recognize and accept the "now opporutinty" the market is offering to traders who are open to all possibilities, including a lower probability event. Even more debilitating is the false belief that they can pick out winning trades, and avoid the losers, which leads to cherry picking through a traders edge. If the market spends most of its time with a probability between 40-60%, why is it so hard to generate a consistent profit? Understanding prices and their tendencies is only half the battle of becoming a Professional Trader. The other half and harder to develop, is the traders mindset. What makes a good trader is not only his knack for reading prices. It is the ability to flow with the market as it is unfolding, and the art of doing the right thing at the right time; without questioning himself. If the market is only offering X amount of profit, he takes it. If the market is unfolding in a way that he did not expect, he exits. He is willing to take a loss, and more importantly does not care what happens to "himself" in the market. He does not take it personally, and carries on throughout the day executing trade after trade. Continued...
Education
by tradersmentality
$FNGU Full Moon FunThis one is dedicated to all the nonbelievers -- anyone who might doubt the influence of the moon on our everyday psychology and our everyday lives. Anyone who might not see the utility of basic observation and pattern recognition of 'natural cycles' like moonphase. Now some may ask why might tracking the moon work? Well, if you are a patron of mine I have written a brief summary of and also sent out the verbatim pdf that the FED published on how 'otherworldly' events can influence the markets by way of mass psychology . This chart may serve as an example. As we approach the full moon humankind's sleep quality will decrease and stress levels will increase. As people's fear and stress rises, there presents a buying opportunity at the peak of fear and potentially oversold levels ... the full moon! As the new moon approaches humankind's sleep quality increases and stress levels decrease. As people's fear and stress fall, there presents a selling opportunity at the height of confidence and potentially overbought levels... the new moon! I present to you: $FNGU a 3x leveraged fund that tracks the daily movement of the FANG stocks; because this is A) a 3x leveraged 'bull' fund and B) related to some very popular stocks for daytraders ($FB, $NFLX, $AMZN, $GOOGL), we can more easily catch upside moves related to exploiting these daytraders at their peak fear levels and then selling back to them when they are at their peak of confidence. This chart may serve as an example of the use and abuse of mass psychology as it relates to moon cycles, but there is more to this chart than moon cycles alone: As we can see the current price is between the TS and KS of the ichimoku system. Finding prices between these levels can sometimes be considered a 'value area'. Some other potentially long bias signals are the fact that we may be able to catch the 5th and final wave of the Elliot wave count presented here. We also see that a 'clone' level of the X-C-D modified schiff pitchfork has been respected as support so far. The last long bias signal I will mention is the Japanese candlestick pattern that has appeared: a bullish harami. I am proposing a trade that has ~13% downside risk with upside gain potential of ~50%; allowing for ~3.5 dollars of profit to be gained for every ~1 dollar risked (3.5:1) Manage your own risk GL HF xoxo Snoop
AMEX:FNGULong
by 420snoop
10
XRP Weekly AnalysisThe price is consolidating through a descending channel. Kumo is wide, kijun, tenkan, are acting as resistance and have been moving sideways. ADX confirms the strength of this downtrend is strong and the width of the DIs indicate that it has possible room to go. Stochastic had and TRIX are very oversold but do not look as if they will be have any strong bull crosses in the near future. XRP has some very strong psychological support which is plotted in purple. My weekly analysis price range estimate for XRP is: Low - 0.49614 High - 0.54094
BITFINEX:XRPUSD
by SpektreSignal
2
Why panic sell? You didn't sell your house in the 2008 crash.As always I like to look at things in no smaller than six month time frames. The longer the better in general. I even remember 20 something odd years ago when an investment instructor told me that "if you're investing you shouldn't be looking at a time frame of less than 5 years." Let's apply this to our general way of thinking. When the housing market bubble burst people didn't run out and sell their homes. They either stopped paying because they lost their job or they held on and their diligence paid off when the market recovered. Now let me introduce to you a simple story. A macro type of story, but it applies to almost anything. When we go to buy a product, whether it's produce from the supermarket or a car off the lot, we look for the best deal possible. Why people in general don't adopt this policy in investing we may never know. The story goes like this... A lady sees a dress for sale. The sticker price is usually $500 but today it's 50% off. No one in their right mind would say that it decreased in value so I'll wait till it goes back up. So she buys the dress when it's on sale and tells her husband how much money they made. I mean saved. Now, this should not be equated to short-selling. That's a different animal all together. Now a third point. The GDP of Japan is almost 5 trillion dollars. That's not an insignificant number. Japan has recognized BTC as an official currency and form of payment and there are about 30 countries total where bitcoin is completely unrestricted and just waiting for greater adoption. People seem very wrapped around the idea of institutional money coming into the market recently and while there is nothing wrong with this I don't think it's going to be as big as people think. I also believe institutional money is already there in larger quantities than most people care to consider because: 1. Nothing stopped institutions from buying coins and holding them in reserve years ago. 2. There was no reason for them to inform the public of this if they wanted better positions. 3. This has happened before with Apple, Tesla, Google, and other investments where the public was completely unaware of the moves. But let's get back to Japan. Five trillion USD, not Yen. Let's take 1 percent of that. That leaves us with 50,000,000,000. That's fifty billion that could be put into circulation in BTC and "IS" gradually happening. Now let's look at Korea's GDP. 1.4 trillion. Again 1% comes to 14,000,000,000. That's 14 billion. You can see how things add up really quickly. Now, let's take a look at the U.S. - 18.5 trillion, Germany - 3.5 trillion, and Canada 1.5 trillion. Add these five countries together and we get 29.9 trillion or 29.9x10^12. 1% of this is 2.99x10^11. What does that look like with zeros? $299,000,000,000. Okay, so I admit I hit that number by luck because it is just about the number that coinmarketcap.com claims is the total market cap for all crypto-currencies. But I also hope that puts things in perspective. Because the price fluctuates by orders of magnitude, we can actually assume that there isn't this much money in the market yet. If there was we would probably be looking at double the current market cap. In 2016 the global GDP was around 75.4 trillion. You know the story now. If one percent of that was circulated in crypto-currencies, not even bitcoin alone, where would that put us? So the actual end story should sound something like this... Bitcoin was created and the value went up, the amount of fiat in circulation went down, the rate of adoption went up, the fiat exponentially went down in use, BTC's value went exponentially up, and early adopters still got rich even when they bought and HODL'd at $19k in 2017. Now this is very simplified and there will be massive dips because people will get too excited, but these are very real numbers. Hope this helps.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by whiprush3
Oh the agony. The lack of humanity. You betrayed us bitcoin!So for about 6 months now we have not seen exponential growth. Call it what you will. I think I will call it a "bitcoin recession." For two quarters we have not seen the kind of positive growth we have come to expect, however, compare what we have now to this time last year and you should still be a very happy camper. If you've been HODLing of course and even if you've been trading, as long as you have more coins you are in a very good position. This brings me to my first point. We tend to have a very short memory and those poor souls that bought into BTC with out doing research just didn't see that this is perfectly normal. We have already had a drawback of approximately 70% which is slightly better than the two or three worst ever. The average cost of a bitcoin through mining, depending on country is somewhere between $531 and $26,170 so let's round and say the spread is $500 to $26000. Therefore we have a whopping grand total average of $13250. Now, if you don't think that is a baseline of where we should be I'm quite sorry. With weighted averages we might say that it's a bit lower, for instance if China is in the dominant position of mining, let's say 75%, then the average with these two numbers is quite a bit lower. If the cost in China was $500 and let's say the U.S. is $26000 then we are looking at a weighted average of $1025. Oh no, that's a dismal price for Bitcoin! Luckily, those aren't the respective prices. It's interesting that bears have pegged a downside price at around $4,000. The cost of mining in the U.S. just happens to be about $4758. Hmmm!?!? Fascinating. The problem is that at this point we know that the average cost of mining a BTC is actually around $6500 so what will cause BTC to fall below this? For reference, this was established in the first two months of the year when the cost to profit was 1:1 ratio. I haven't seen any electric bills anywhere in the world go down. When an electric corporation finds a more efficient way of producing they hold the price stable longer, but they certainly don't drop it. Same for ASIC miners and graphics cards. Demand went up and so did the price. Even though production went up the demand was simply too high. Here's what I'm trying to point out. The top chart shows the overall logarithmic growth of BTC and the bottom shows linear increasing bottoms since late 2017. Despite our current recession we are still growing positive. When I read other peoples views, I concentrate specifically on counter arguments because that's the only way to find something that I've missed. I have yet to read a reason for BTC to plummet. Let's start with Fibonacci retracements. These are potential turning points or high likely-hood of reversal points both on the low and high side. They are not the reason that something rises or falls. If they were, then we would always and forever oscillate. Pennants, flags, cups, H &S, inverse H & S are indicators again, not reasons. That's why they are only correct part of the time. I want a reason on the macro or micro-level, or a well detailed mathematical explanation of why BTC is going lower. Please keep it educational, but also please comment below.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by whiprush3
Skulls, Bones And Candlesticks - The Margin CallIf you are a beginner in the wonderful world of charts, patterns and indicators, this post is for you... Almost all traders have on day faced an account crash and anyone knows that it is a damn bad moment to go through. My goal here is to identify what is the main reason leading to this morbid situation that make us crash our accounts...and provide some tips to avoid being in panic when the margin call happens. The leverage and margin level. The trading world is seen as an eldorado for most of people, especially because it seems so easy to make much money very quickly. It is also a path to financial independency which is a dream for many people. Working from home or simply working with only a smartphone and make money like that. It seems so nice. Let's be clear, If the leverage did not exist we would not be here on Tradingview. If trading knows as much succes, it is also because we can invest much more than we have in fact. With $1,000, we are able to invest up to $500,000 in the market... from our smartphone... Simply insane. Difficult to stay cold being aware of that. Who has never been in margin call here? This situation should never happen. If so, then your trading behavior is at risk and you will crash your account sooner or later. My solution: Always respect the 10% rule. Your overall margin including all opened position should never exceed 10% of your account. If your capital is $1,000 then your max margin would be $100. Even there it is only for agressive traders. Why the 10% rule can help you to succeed? In fact, you can use it as psychological barrier. As an example, you can face the case where you have a position in loss. I identify 3 main situations: A) You position is in an important loss. You are tempted to average down the entry price of the position by adding a new one on the same pair. Clearly the badest behavior. With the max margin at 10% you cannot add multiple positions without breaking the rule. It is your alert. B) You can also let the position run in loss without doing anything. Your stop loss? Psychologically, you are not able to handle such a loss so you pray for the market to reverse. It is possible depending of the fundamentals and technical configuration, if a huge support is broken, better worth closing the position. Letting the position run is risky but clearly much more acceptable than the A situation. C) Your position is in loss but you use a stop loss. The stop is hit but you accept this loss and look for a better opportunity to enter in the market again. Ideally on a support or a resistance. In definitive, being in margin call should warn you that your trading behavior is dangerous in a medium to long run. The probability for you to crash your acccount sooner or later is damn high.
Education
by Traderscope
1
Today's Lesson (#4) : Adjusting the leverage to volatilityIn this educational content video I had to cover one the biggest noob trader mistake, trading with too much leverage. That's basically what flushes out almost 80% of the noobs. Getting the margin call, putting more money into trading than you initially expexted. All of this is well known as gambling problems. And the recent flow of beginners who went to the markets with hopes of easy gains, most are now feeling the painful experiment of what the market is doing to fools. So I hope you'll learn something important today with that lesson. Cause if you don't, then you'll probably have to learn it the hard ways later...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by PRO_Indicators
13
Ethereum analysis - 4 hour chart.Overall the price has been in an ascending channel with well defined psychological support and resistance as seen by our blue trendlines. This falls in line perfectly between roughly the 0.786 and 1 fib levels. Ichimoku - The clouds senkou lines have been rising. This tells us the average price equilibrium is rising. Strong supports on these levels as they align with fib .7 and 1. Tenkan and Kijun sen are beginning to range. Downward price action is losing momentum. MACD - oversold and we should see a test one the resistance line and look for a bullish cross RVI - should test support at 36.1 before a bounce Stochastic RSI - Currently testing resistance. K line bearish moving down. ADX - Trend has been losing steam DIs - bearish divergence on the DIs they should expand before testing resistance and we should look to see a bullish cross
by SpektreSignal
Bubble chart 'Return to normal' phase right now? Look at shape and volume I now agree (albeit a bit late) Loops and Rivers&Mountains. Bubble chart is a meme and so is log chart, but 2 memes make a right techcrunch.com People are psychologically anchored to high BTC values from the 20k run. BTC could easily go back and test where it came from (ie. low 4-digits to 3-digits). Sentiment seems to match the meme bubble chart. Many were and still are in denial in the past months that BTC will go to those so-called 'extreme' lows ("everyone will just buy at 5k/3k/1k", "I wish it goes that low, but it will never happen", "buy now for new bull season" etc.). Many are now calling for 20k, 30k, etc. again thinking this is the start of the new bull cycle. The bull run has been going on non-stop for years now. If it has truly ended for now (which I think it has), we are heading to 'goblin town,' as an acoustic shorter called Turnip once said.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by Pobloto
TRUST the whales, LOVE the whales, BE th.. no.Go with the whales. I want to start an open discussion on the psychological side that whales love to manipulate so nicely. (this goes for little whales on alts as well) We all know that whales eat tiny fish that are really tasty. And so if you don't want to be eaten do not stand in their way. It's as simple as that. But the natural question that occurs in one's minds is, How do I know when a whale wants to eat (me)? Bitcoin is at its crucial/crux point for the last few weeks and one could argue that the crux is always the present moment but let us leave that for another discussion maybe. We all seen the recent "anomaly" in crypto that occurred on 2018-04-12 where whales killed many standing fish and furthermore attracted a lot more from alts so that they can get in at lower prices. It was an amazing move and an isolated case concerning Bitcoin and ALTS/BTC pairs (the ALTS/USD prices went up along with BTC/USD). There was to be expected a big move from the whales after such a long stagnant period. The point that I am trying to get across is think like a whale: "If the market is going for some time on a more or less straight line how can I f*** up the market and make nice profit? OOo look FISH (mmmmm) :) that are still in FUD and FoMO and don't really know where to go... let's kill some." See, in this case, you just had to wait them make the first move and buy some cheap alts (ALTS/BTC pairs or ALTS/USD pairs as well) and probably swing trade them. Don't try to resist them and understand that they always want to squeeze the most out of the market and in the current state of the market even more so. That is one of the reasons why is still think we will get to see a lower BTC bottom. I won't get into prices on this educational idea, for that you can check/follow:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by qqqpoilove