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Psychology

The big issue with technical analysis. In this video I give a few minutes of preview before discussing what I see on this weekly time frame. Bear with me as you'll see where I'm heading. In the second half of the video I show how I estimate the big probability from the weekly time frame. I'm not interested in being right in this. That's not what I want to get across. Whilst technical analysis is a useful 'tool', I assert that there is a bigger issue of individual psychology in the background that is hardly ever spoken about. Loads of new traders especially, will spend a disproportionate amount of time on indicators and fail. They're missing where the big issues are, and it's nothing to do with charts or technical analysis. So, I'm saying that all new traders really need to dig deeper. Yes - learn about technical indicators, but focus on the unseen i.e. biases, emotions, justifications, coping with loss etc. I'd be delighted if other traders out there can share their experiences (good or bad ones). Come on be brave!
Education
by Captain_Walker
2
The dangers in listening to the newsI'm sharing a chart to give my sentiments about listening to the news. New traders especially tend to listen to the news and website opinions about where markets are heading. I show a bit on how I approached a particular situation on the US30. A lot of news is late and people who create news items or blogs have their own biases, based on the information they have. The news can be dangerous to trading as it can cause a trader to become apprehensive, doubtful and stay out of trade setups that may be quite sound for entry. News can be depressing and cause a trader anxiety. Some very important earthshaking news may be useful e.g. some major monetary policy change in Europe or America. But on the whole, listening to or reading news is fraught with problems. I've found that I make better decisions when I approach the markets with a kind of fearlessness described by Mark Douglas . The fearless state of mind is not 'recklessness'. It is about calmly making decisions and accepting risks in a reasonable way, based on a tested strategy. None of the above or the video is advice to traders.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
Self-discipline - what's that?Whilst I am on a roll, I'm pushing out loads of questions and thoughts that have occupied me for the last two years. All this is well ' Beyond Technical Analysis '! In too many trading/training videos out there, I've heard the words 'discipline' and 'self-discipline'. These are so commonly used words that many take their meaning for granted, or as something very elementary. I know - because I was one of those people who thought I knew what the words meant. However, there is also a thing called self-deception which works against self-discipline. Self-deception at its heart, is the ability of the mind to justify anything! Quite simply - it's dangerous. The Collins Dictionary defines self-discipline as, " controlling of oneself or one's desires, actions, habits ... .. the act of disciplining or power to discipline one's own feelings, desires... with the intention of improving oneself. " It's easier now to see how this connects to trading environments. A sound trader needs a lot of personal self-control over actions, habits, feelings and desires. I add 'thinking processes'. Certainly there must be a routine that improves one abilities, as the markets are not static. Their behaviour changes so one needs to improve to match those changes. The obvious question for many (especially new traders) is, " How do I become more disciplined? " I'm afraid there is no magic formula that I can prescribe. I can only share a few personal experiences that drove me to become more disciplined. It's like a weird sandwich: A firm and unshakeable desire to make myself consistently profitable. Pain i.e. painful mistakes. Non-acceptance that if others could do it, I couldn't. Pain drives people - let's not debate that. By pain I include from the worse kinds of suffering to the more subtle kinds. One can include things like frustration, anger and disappointment. Pain stood like a distasteful filling between the two sides of my sandwich. I just couldn't ignore it. If I wanted to make this thing right I had to fix the pain; all sources of it. I was/am my own pain. My enemies arise from within me to cause me pain. My mind plays tricks on me in trading environments. To deal with the sources of pain I had to deal with my own mind, else just give up. I'm no quitter! So whilst I do not claim near-perfect discipline now, I have been addressing the trickery of my own mind - those inner enemies - that thwart my thinking processes. After all, if I don't the whole sandwich (three bullet points above) become nothing - and I'd have to join the 90-odd percent of people who give up on trading in the first couple years. Am I saying that pain is a necessary ingredient for everybody to reach a greater self-disciplined state? Well yes I am! In every walk of life people have to suffer some sort of discomfort in achieving their goals. If you wanted to become a top-rated lawyer, you would have to suffer the 'pain' of years of study, and the trauma of being beaten in court rooms. If you want to get to the North Pole on foot, that involves pain and personal sacrifice. But nobody gets to the North Pole alive, with poor discipline. I shan't go on to mention other areas where people suffer extreme discomfort in order to achieve their goals. If there are take away points to consider, traders should to find out what they are about and anchor themselves on what they want and what they won't have. Then, systematically whittle away at all obstacles by robust self-refection. It takes time - and bargain for pain! Do the time - take the pain. Don't blow up a live account.
Education
by Captain_Walker
Courses, horses - or the mind?If you’re reading this looking just for the best course to attend, you may be disappointed. I go deeper than the simple issue of 'which courses' or 'what course is best'. The sharing of my personal experience may be of value to new traders but also for more seasoned traders. INTRODUCTION I’m sharing a summary of my experiences over the last 4 years, so that others can see something more about ‘courses’ – and what courses can never give you. I am nobody known or big in the trading world. I do not offer advice in this or any other post. I do not train anybody. I do not seek anybody's money for any service. I do not require recognition. Take all of what’s written here as 'what I've learned' and cautiously apply the parts of it that you find of any value. Where I use words like ‘you’ and ‘yours’, this is my self-talk as if I’m advising myself all over again. I do this all the time. You're not mad if you're doing self-talk. It is an important thing to do. I started off with binary options and lost a fair amount of money. I watched numerous videos on YouTube about how to trade these, with numerous so-called successful strategies. In my searches I came across Spreadbetting, and did the same. More money lost. I then signed up with various trainers and spent more money there. More losses. I'm to blame I was led to understand because I didn't follow the rules. That's true to some extent - but something fundamental was missing. Why could I not follow the rules of some strategy invented by others? It's about why this post is in the Trading Psychology section of Tradingview. I followed various gurus on websites, paid more money and still no success. Most of these gurus had state of the art audio-visual equipment and studios. They usually appeared with large microphones, conspicuous and 'in the face'. Is that really necessary? Some will say it’s all about better sound quality. Then I got into ‘trading diaries’ and other things people out there said I should do. Still major problems. So, what was missing? To put it in a nutshell the problem was grappling with my personal psychology . This is about the way I work - how my mind functions in relation to risk, which would be different to everybody else. Psychologists may be able to tell you a bit about how minds in general work. They cannot tell you exactly how ‘your mind’ works. GURUS? Most of the gurus I came across would mention psychology several times but never get to the heart of it. Naturally they're not psychotherapists, so they can't tell me how to sort myself out. Most trainers focused on 'discipline' which is fine, but they couldn't tell me how to become disciplined. What? - am I just supposed to pull myself together and follow a script? Some would say 'yes'. But this is not how the human being operates. If everybody could just pull themselves together and follow a trading plan and a set of rules, then everybody would be rich. Come on - we all know that's silly. ... truncated . This post became so long, that it cannot fit on Tradingview. It is accessible here where I go on to explore: GURUS? RECOGNITION METHODOLOGY AND STRATEGY MIND AND PSYCHOLOGY PATTERN REWRITING IF I COULD TURN BACK TIME I do apologise, and hope Tradingview allows this post to remain.
Education
by Captain_Walker
Let D4 Try Again: Psychology Of A Market Cycle!Hey Friends This is a re-reupload. I was not allowed to write swear words. I hope you will give IT A BIG LIKE, and support this chart again due to its educational purpose! Thank you, my friends This is an educational chart about the Psychology of a market cycle. Every market is determined by people's feelings. In this chart I have illustrated how people tend to feel through a market cycle. D4 has used BTCUSD as an example but it applies to every market. Enjoy! D4 loves you <3 Please give a BIG like - It really means a lot to me <3
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by D4rkEnergY
20
Next quick BTC / EUR "analysis"I don't really follow all technical analysis methos. How I do my predictions is based mostly on psychology. Patterns that look like they would repeat - but go the other way around just to form nice traps. And such. I do my chart analysis based on how I feel what could be right and so far I have been correct quite a few times. Not always being like 1min chart correct, but I'm okay with it. Enjoy my next prediction and take care of your money! If I am correct here, the following hours could get very very hard to do highly profitable trades with. I only see small buy & sell space to trade with in this longer drop scenario. Oh and by the way: My bear avatar doesn't mean I am always bearish. I'm bear / bull whatever the direction the charts go. Feel free to paste in your chart predictions in the comments! PS: Why is there no "psychology" category in the dropdown menu
by pewpewprofit
EURUSD still BEARISH although option markets are record long EURUpdate on my SECULAR EUROUSD Short. After having clearly failed to break the secular downtrend channel at 1.2500 I continue to stress that EURUSD is overbought, both technically and by the record number of long option contracts. Please do not get caught long EURO and continue to sell on bounces. I trade it daily and been trading it for ages, obviously I rely on technical indicators as per my previous comment. But market psychology and behavior is as much important. We have a situation where nearly everyone is on the same side, long euro, and since hitting 1.2500 every time the chart highlights a buy signal the EURUSD fails to reach its short term target, then price suddenly reverse: we have a series of constant false breaks towards the upside...This is a clear sign everyone is trying to get out of longs (while many still hold their position....so capitulation still ahead). Lets now talk about levels. 1.2200 nest support and target. But where I will first close my short is 1.2085 (Previous door to 1.2500 and now trap for 1.1500) where I believe we have a major support and will not go short again until we close 2 consecutive days below 1.2085. In the meantime I stress you to not buy EUR and sell only on pullbacks. But then again you do what you want :-)..this is my personal opinion. On the short Picture I think we will see some buying at 1.2200, mostly fueled by short term traders. The EUR attempted and failed to correct the 1.2500 -1.2300 drop: when pulling a classic Fibonacci Retracement indicator and the cross fails to retrace more than 25%, the market is clearly trending (downwards in this case) and further losses are to be expected. Again from a behavioral perspective this means longs are trying to get out of their positions and the more time passes the more they are willing to accept lower prices, this before the obnoxious ones, who fail to accept the bear market, will capitulate. PS; By tomorrow I will also publish on my blog theforecaster.eu
Short
by TheForecaster
Patience vs TradingPatience is a great quality in trading. Why ? Simply because it helps you not ceeding to impulsivity and it helps you decreasing mistakes. Patience in trading is similar to patience in poker. A good poker player will wait hours to get the best hand possible. He will wait for a very good pair like AA or KK instead of risking losing with weak pair like 44 or 66. Of course having AA or KK is not a guarantee of winning but you get a much higher probability to do so. In trading you face the same problematic. Sometimes the market doesn't give you anything, no info, no pattern. In this case, you should close your laptop and do something else. Really !!! The more you trade, the more you are exposed to make big mistakes. I used to make scalping for a time but I quickly realized that it was not for me. Staying all day in front of a laptop waiting for an opportunity, no, many opportunities to get 2 to 10 pips only. Some traders are very good scalpers but I am not. I am a swing and day trader. I look for 30 to 20,00 pips on each trade. You really need patience to get 1000 pips profit ! And obviously I have a dedicated account for this kind of investment. Why ? Because, after having made 100 pips, the temptation is huge to take my profit and close the trade. On this account you only have very long term trades where potential is 500 to 20,000 pips ! Patience is also a quality when you do not see any opportunity on the market. You are frustrated, you want to feel the adrenaline of trading. Calm down, stay cold. The market always gives opportunity, It will happen very soon trust me but at this moment, use this time to improve your skills, reading, learning, analysing or simply deconnecting totally from trading. Think how you feel good without the stress of a losing position when you are always looking after your smartphone to check the price. Be patient, wait for the optimal opportunity wen you can sell high and buy low. The opportunity which gives you the best risk-reward. Patience vs trading ? No ! Patience = Trading !
BITFINEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Traderscope
6
The Escalation Of Failure In TradingThe escalation of failure in trading ! : 5 reasons why most of traders lose their money ! Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease Reason 4 / Step 4 : The "RISK EVERYTHING" game Reason 5 / Step 5 : The "I SWEAR IT WILL NEVER HAPPEN AGAIN" lie to yourself Let me tell you the story of JOE the gambler : Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually, Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing ! Joe thinks that he is a reasonable investor and start investing with 0.05 lot. Joe creates an account with $1,000 with a broker offering a x500 leverage. Virtually Joe could invest almost $500,000 on the market ! Amazing ! So Joe has $1,000 on his account. He has a very good investment strategy which has worked very well for 1 month on demo account. Joe's projections gives $250 profit in one month. It is time now to pass on real account. Joe has read many articles about money management and joe wants to risk only 3% of its capital on each trade. Joe's strategy is to take trades only if a combination of several indicators give the same signal. Joe always use stop loss and take profit. The plan is the plan no matter what ! Right ?! Joe bought 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2200 with a SL at 1.2150. He thinks that the price will increase from 100 pips at least in the next hours to reach 1.23. Reason 1 / Step 1 : The "I DON'T ACCEPT LOSING" syndrom Problem, the price falls from 40 pips. Joe starts panicking. Reason 2 / Step 2 : The "I MOVE MY STOP LOSS" temptation Joe decides to move the SL from 50 to 100 pips at 1.21. Reason 3 / Step 3 : The "AVERAGE DOWN" disease Problem, the market decides to go down again and the position shows a 80 pips floating loss. Joe decides to move the SL from 100 pips to 150 pips at 1.2050 and take a new position of 0.05 lot on EURUSD at 1.2120 with a SL at 1.2050. Problem, the market continues its fall and the price displays 1.2070. Joe thinks OK. I move my SL from 1.2050 to 1.1950. It gives more margin to let breathe the market and Joe takes a third position of 0.05 lot at 1.2050 with a SL at 1.1950. The average price is now 1.2123. Problem, the next days the market starts a range between 1.20 and 1.21 and Joe wants absolutely to leave the overall position in profit. Pride ! Joe loses patience and decides to take a new postion of 0.1 lot on EURUSD at 1.2070. The average price is now 1.2102. Joe is stressed and tired of this situation and decides to put an overall TP at 1.2120. The probability to hit the TP is high. Finally the market goes up and hit the TP during the night and when Joe wakes up the the price on EURUSD is 1.2200. Oh my GOSH ! Joe is frustrated ! Why did I change my TP ? I missed a lot of profit on this movement !!! Joe decides to take a new trade on EURUSD at 1.2200 without SL this time because this time is the right one !!! Pride !!! Problem, the market falls from 25 pips at 1.2175. Joe is convinced that he is right so he takes a new BUY pending position at 1.2150. And now the market makes a huge falls from 1.2175 to 1.2050 during the day. Joe has now 2 positions of 0.05 lot size. At this moment, Joe decided reasonably to close all positions with losses at 1.2050. Joe lost 275 pips on these 2 hasardous trades.
Education
by Traderscope
8
BTCUSD breaks crystal ballsEverybody is interested to find out where BTCUSD is going!! Well, if you only knew where it was heading you'd have an edge on the rest of the world and make loadsah money - right? Too often on Tradingview and other places - even among some so-called expert traders and trainers - I've heard the words, " I predict.... blah blah... ". These are the folk who claim to have some 'greater' insight on the future - these are the chaps and chappesses who claim to have amazing crystal balls. Well - a majority of these folks have had their crystal balls broken by BTCUSD, in the last couple weeks! I'm not surprised, at all. Why? Nobody owns the future. Many a trader confuses a probability estimate with the word 'prediction'. If a probability is 60% for the north, all it means is that there is a 40% chance it'll go south. That's by no means a prediction. The word prediction has a specific meaning. If I predict that the sun will rise in the East tomorrow morning, I do not think anybody would be impressed by that. If however I predicted that the sun would rise in the West on 09 December 2019, that would require some looking into for foundations of evidence leading to such 'prediction'. Note that a prediction requires a lot of specificity and a pretty well defined range of time to make it meaningful. BTCUSD has been a bearish market for several weeks. All the available evidence - right on the charts - show that a down trend is the greater probability. Yet many a trader/trainer has been predicting various high levels. Their so-called predictions are actually statements of speculation for the most part, given with some degree of assertiveness. The markets do not respect anybody. They do as they like. Lots of traders find a great sense in being right - after an event happens - in what they call ' their prediction ' (come through). If a ' predicted ' event happens it seems to confirm their 'predciction'. No - it simply happened their way by chance (and I'm not talking about luck). 'Sense of victory' is a thief in this business! It'll rob you of your money in the long run. How? You come to feel that you were so right the last time, that you'd be right if you do the same thing in the future. Seasoned traders know that it just doesn't work like that. Note the above paragraph excludes traders who have developed a sound strategy that matches their personality characteristics, and who have a proven expectancy ratio over a long period of time across several markets. The following is not advice (I'm sharing my personal long experience and methods): 1. I cannot predict the future - and therefore predict nothing, ever! 2. I can estimate probabilities relevant to a particular time frame. 3. For every probability that favours my estimate, there is a counter probability that I'll be wrong. 4. I chose my trend time frame very carefully. 5. I base my stop-losses mathematically on the ATR and other tools. 6. I agree with myself to accept the loss in advance of making the entry. In other words the money is gone! It's an accepted/acceptable loss at the time of entry. 7. I don't know where a trend will go (being mostly a trend-follower). So, I have no targets but have exit criteria relying on mathematics. 8. I aim to become a 'robot' (not easy) when trading the markets. This is some protection from my inner enemies (never perfect). 9. Nobody has authority over my assessment of probabilities. 10. I do not rely on confirmations on charts, the news or opinions out there. I do not suggest or imply that others should follow my methods. I claim no successes nor do I need to impress anyone. I believe all new traders should be helped to help themselves totally for free. Supplemental/optional (some of my personal thoughts from my diary): On luck, chance and prediction: goo.gl What is and is not prediction: goo.gl
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Captain_Walker
INTENSE moments! BITCOIN and The Uncertainty Principle...! Dear Friends! D4rkEnergY is here with an exiting update on Bitcoin. But before D4 will jump in, he will spread some wisdom to you guys. So trading is basically like quantum-mechanics. Have you ever heard about Heisenberg's Uncertainty Principle? It is one of the most famous ideas and principles in physics. It tells us that there is a fuzziness in nature, a fundamental limit to what we can know about the behavior of quantum-particles and, therefore, the smallest scales of nature. Of these scales, the most we can hope for is to calculate probabilities for where things are and how they will behave. The same goes for TA and trading. We can NEVER be sure of where we are going, but the best trader is the one who is best at figure out what is most plausible! So this is a follow up on D4rkEnergYs chart from yesterday. As you can see, as predicted, the small HS pattern is taking form. We are squeezed into the decending triangle, and we will most likely go down. D4 already predicted days ago, we would go under 10,000 USD. But how low will we go? D4rkEnergY thinks 9,100-9,300 USD would be optimal. We need this LONG JUMP and momentum if we want to go way above 10,000 USD. And history shows that. We can see that if we look at the yellow dot, and also further back on the chart. From there on, we will finally go up. The pink inverse HS pattern and the descent retracement will finally allow us that. Kiss and hugs D4rkEnergy is Everywhere PS. Again. It would mean a lot to D4 if you gave him a LIKE if u liked his analysis. It is much appreciated! Thx in advance, my friends!
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by D4rkEnergY
26
BITCOIN will now go UNDER 10k - and then UP to 13k!Dear beloved D4-fans! D4rkEnergY is here with an update on BTCUSD. The last 3 BTCs updates have been spot on - this one will probably also be nailed. Remember guys, D4 is here for you. He does not come with bad news, nor does he come with goods news. D4rkEnergY only brings the truth to the crypto community! Let us begin. We are here taking a look at the 4h BTCUSD chart. As D4 before has described we finally not long time ago managed to get out of the descending channel. D4 predicted the inverse HS pattern, which let us through in the second attempt. We got the way up to 11,3k, as D4 also predicted in an earlier post. Not so long after BTC had an expected pullback. We are right now at around 10,7k. Seen from a psychological point of view this is really not a good place to be in for the BTC-holders. There are not that many new buyers right above 10k. The bulls has lost a bit of momentum, which the bearish MACD-cross indicates. Also take a look at the volume bars. 3 red bars all above the MA20 volume. The RSI shows its soon overbought. D4rkEnergY thinks we need to go down under 10k again, to get up again. We have more buyers under 10k and we need that long jump and momentum to get us up, up up... and way over 10k. D4 has made a Trendbased Fibonacchi Extension to figure out where we are heading. He has also made the Elliot Wave counts, and if we look at wave 3 we still need a bigger retracement which will let us down under 10k. But only for a short time. We will hereafter go even higher to about 13k. D4rkEnergY loves you! OUT. PS. Just to be clear. D4 is not saying that we will go down right after this post is made. We might go a little bit higher before we go under 10k.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by D4rkEnergY
42
SECRET: A traders No. 1 ability...I'm gonna share a secret with ya'll. You want to know how every great, rich, famous trader got there? How they crawled out of nothingness eating instant noodle soup to driving Maserati's and eating premium bamboo? Ask your friends...what would they say? They'd say “Those guys know their edge”, “they push their winners”, “they trade their strategy”, or “nah they just got lucky”. How’d pushing their winners work with Bitcoin in January? And if you don’t know your edge or strategy, are you really a trader? Maybe you’re just getting lucky? ^^ Call me honest panda...just for saying it like it is. Your greatest tool as a trader is your willingness and ability to admit you were wrong. When you don’t admit you were wrong you resent the loss. Resent is an emotional response, that clouds your judgement. This takes you down the road of seeing what you want to see in the chart. Over trading. And more emotional trauma. Admitting your trade was your own making, and taking responsibility for everything in your control is a step toward preventing all this pain. So guys, I was wrong on the last copper swing up to $3.50. :( Slow panda walk with me…what happened? Price did indeed rally briefly from our key support at 3.15 to 3.20...up to a whopping 3.24 and instead of continuing, it became a reversal point. And considering the price action around that level, I suspect we’ll see a run down to 2.95 - basically to the bottom of the big consolidation we have been in (not without a few upside hiccups of course). If we get there, that’s where things get tricky. Will our new key support level find support? Or will we fail and go even lower down to… dare I say it…. 2.750. (you knew I would because I’m bad) Damn that's a long way….is Copper still bullish? Don’t get me wrong, I still see $3.50 as a target, question is when do we go for it? Ask me and copper’s gonna have a good year. Just gotta wait for it. My overall outlook on fundamentals tells me price is supported at a minimum of 2.20. Yeah that’s a long way from where we are. If we establish we are in a retracement, long or short, our best bet is to wait it out. So what do I like? Get yourself some sweet bamboo and enjoy the show. Trade something else if you’d like, but just wait for the next major buy signal at a key support level. And don’t worry I got your back when it gets there ;) Like my commentary and analysis? Follow The Bad Panda and like my posts! Your trading account will thank you ;) Note: All ideas expressed here are presented solely for learning and educational purposes only. Any gains or losses assumed by trading ideas presented by The Bad Panda are done so at your own risk.
C
by TheBadPanda
BTC will NEVER go under 8k again.. and here is WHY!Hello, my beloved fans! D4rkEnergY will once again spread wisdom to his followers! Evil voices in the Crypto community has for a long time tried to convince D4rkEnergY, that we again will go down to 7k again. Even 5k or under has he heard mentioned. First of all... D4rkEnergY acknowledges that the chart he posted is not THAT relevant in this case. This is more a matter of psychological analysis But let us anyway just shortly take a look at he 4h BTCUSDT chart. As you can see on the MACD, the bulls are starting to lose momentum after a long uptrend. A bearish MACD cross is on its way. At the same time the RSI has just made a confirmed double top. Therefore there are no doubt a retracement is on its way. A 50 % percent pullback is pretty normal, which is also equal to 8,000 USD. BUT!.... The reason, that we probably not will see such big of a retracement is because of 2 things. 1. We have HUGE support at 10k and 8k. Also we have great support on 9,5k, 9k and 8,5k. Fans, always remember that the BIG EVEN numbers acts as heavy support and resistance levels. 2. And this is probably the most important thing. Weeks ago we were in a situation, where all the noobs and new cryptoholders for the first time saw a huge retracement. They were fudding out like crazy. Today is a different story. The noobs who is still here, have now experienced that BTC is able to recover and go up again. There is a new reborn trust in the market. The EMA100 and EMA200 are getting closer and closer which emphasizes my point. You are welcome! --D4rkEnergY is everywhere, D4rkEnergY knows everything!
by D4rkEnergY
7