Psychology
Why panic sell? You didn't sell your house in the 2008 crash.As always I like to look at things in no smaller than six month time frames. The longer the better in general. I even remember 20 something odd years ago when an investment instructor told me that "if you're investing you shouldn't be looking at a time frame of less than 5 years." Let's apply this to our general way of thinking. When the housing market bubble burst people didn't run out and sell their homes. They either stopped paying because they lost their job or they held on and their diligence paid off when the market recovered.
Now let me introduce to you a simple story. A macro type of story, but it applies to almost anything. When we go to buy a product, whether it's produce from the supermarket or a car off the lot, we look for the best deal possible. Why people in general don't adopt this policy in investing we may never know. The story goes like this... A lady sees a dress for sale. The sticker price is usually $500 but today it's 50% off. No one in their right mind would say that it decreased in value so I'll wait till it goes back up. So she buys the dress when it's on sale and tells her husband how much money they made. I mean saved. Now, this should not be equated to short-selling. That's a different animal all together.
Now a third point. The GDP of Japan is almost 5 trillion dollars. That's not an insignificant number. Japan has recognized BTC as an official currency and form of payment and there are about 30 countries total where bitcoin is completely unrestricted and just waiting for greater adoption. People seem very wrapped around the idea of institutional money coming into the market recently and while there is nothing wrong with this I don't think it's going to be as big as people think. I also believe institutional money is already there in larger quantities than most people care to consider because:
1. Nothing stopped institutions from buying coins and holding them in reserve years ago.
2. There was no reason for them to inform the public of this if they wanted better positions.
3. This has happened before with Apple, Tesla, Google, and other investments where the public was completely unaware of the moves.
But let's get back to Japan. Five trillion USD, not Yen. Let's take 1 percent of that. That leaves us with 50,000,000,000. That's fifty billion that could be put into circulation in BTC and "IS" gradually happening. Now let's look at Korea's GDP. 1.4 trillion. Again 1% comes to 14,000,000,000. That's 14 billion. You can see how things add up really quickly. Now, let's take a look at the U.S. - 18.5 trillion, Germany - 3.5 trillion, and Canada 1.5 trillion. Add these five countries together and we get 29.9 trillion or 29.9x10^12. 1% of this is 2.99x10^11. What does that look like with zeros? $299,000,000,000.
Okay, so I admit I hit that number by luck because it is just about the number that coinmarketcap.com claims is the total market cap for all crypto-currencies. But I also hope that puts things in perspective. Because the price fluctuates by orders of magnitude, we can actually assume that there isn't this much money in the market yet. If there was we would probably be looking at double the current market cap. In 2016 the global GDP was around 75.4 trillion. You know the story now. If one percent of that was circulated in crypto-currencies, not even bitcoin alone, where would that put us?
So the actual end story should sound something like this... Bitcoin was created and the value went up, the amount of fiat in circulation went down, the rate of adoption went up, the fiat exponentially went down in use, BTC's value went exponentially up, and early adopters still got rich even when they bought and HODL'd at $19k in 2017.
Now this is very simplified and there will be massive dips because people will get too excited, but these are very real numbers. Hope this helps.
Oh the agony. The lack of humanity. You betrayed us bitcoin!So for about 6 months now we have not seen exponential growth. Call it what you will. I think I will call it a "bitcoin recession." For two quarters we have not seen the kind of positive growth we have come to expect, however, compare what we have now to this time last year and you should still be a very happy camper. If you've been HODLing of course and even if you've been trading, as long as you have more coins you are in a very good position. This brings me to my first point. We tend to have a very short memory and those poor souls that bought into BTC with out doing research just didn't see that this is perfectly normal. We have already had a drawback of approximately 70% which is slightly better than the two or three worst ever.
The average cost of a bitcoin through mining, depending on country is somewhere between $531 and $26,170 so let's round and say the spread is $500 to $26000. Therefore we have a whopping grand total average of $13250. Now, if you don't think that is a baseline of where we should be I'm quite sorry. With weighted averages we might say that it's a bit lower, for instance if China is in the dominant position of mining, let's say 75%, then the average with these two numbers is quite a bit lower. If the cost in China was $500 and let's say the U.S. is $26000 then we are looking at a weighted average of $1025. Oh no, that's a dismal price for Bitcoin!
Luckily, those aren't the respective prices. It's interesting that bears have pegged a downside price at around $4,000. The cost of mining in the U.S. just happens to be about $4758. Hmmm!?!? Fascinating. The problem is that at this point we know that the average cost of mining a BTC is actually around $6500 so what will cause BTC to fall below this? For reference, this was established in the first two months of the year when the cost to profit was 1:1 ratio. I haven't seen any electric bills anywhere in the world go down. When an electric corporation finds a more efficient way of producing they hold the price stable longer, but they certainly don't drop it. Same for ASIC miners and graphics cards. Demand went up and so did the price. Even though production went up the demand was simply too high.
Here's what I'm trying to point out. The top chart shows the overall logarithmic growth of BTC and the bottom shows linear increasing bottoms since late 2017. Despite our current recession we are still growing positive. When I read other peoples views, I concentrate specifically on counter arguments because that's the only way to find something that I've missed. I have yet to read a reason for BTC to plummet.
Let's start with Fibonacci retracements. These are potential turning points or high likely-hood of reversal points both on the low and high side. They are not the reason that something rises or falls. If they were, then we would always and forever oscillate. Pennants, flags, cups, H &S, inverse H & S are indicators again, not reasons. That's why they are only correct part of the time. I want a reason on the macro or micro-level, or a well detailed mathematical explanation of why BTC is going lower.
Please keep it educational, but also please comment below.
ICX 1DStochastic RSI has a great double bottom forming on it showing heavily oversold conditions.
This is confirmed by the Bollinger Bands. The price has been riding the bottom band we should expect a Bollinger Bounce to happen near the strong psychological levels at the .236 fib area.
DIs are bearish and the downtrend is mildly strong. Watch for wicks on the next two daily candles as the price approaches it psych support.
Skulls, Bones And Candlesticks - The Margin CallIf you are a beginner in the wonderful world of charts, patterns and indicators, this post is for you...
Almost all traders have on day faced an account crash and anyone knows that it is a damn bad moment to go through.
My goal here is to identify what is the main reason leading to this morbid situation that make us crash our accounts...and provide some tips to avoid being in panic when the margin call happens.
The leverage and margin level.
The trading world is seen as an eldorado for most of people, especially because it seems so easy to make much money very quickly. It is also a path to financial independency which is a dream for many people. Working from home or simply working with only a smartphone and make money like that. It seems so nice.
Let's be clear, If the leverage did not exist we would not be here on Tradingview. If trading knows as much succes, it is also because we can invest much more than we have in fact. With $1,000, we are able to invest up to $500,000 in the market... from our smartphone... Simply insane.
Difficult to stay cold being aware of that.
Who has never been in margin call here? This situation should never happen. If so, then your trading behavior is at risk and you will crash your account sooner or later.
My solution: Always respect the 10% rule. Your overall margin including all opened position should never exceed 10% of your account.
If your capital is $1,000 then your max margin would be $100. Even there it is only for agressive traders.
Why the 10% rule can help you to succeed?
In fact, you can use it as psychological barrier.
As an example, you can face the case where you have a position in loss. I identify 3 main situations:
A) You position is in an important loss. You are tempted to average down the entry price of the position by adding a new one on the same pair. Clearly the badest behavior. With the max margin at 10% you cannot add multiple positions without breaking the rule. It is your alert.
B) You can also let the position run in loss without doing anything. Your stop loss? Psychologically, you are not able to handle such a loss so you pray for the market to reverse. It is possible depending of the fundamentals and technical configuration, if a huge support is broken, better worth closing the position. Letting the position run is risky but clearly much more acceptable than the A situation.
C) Your position is in loss but you use a stop loss. The stop is hit but you accept this loss and look for a better opportunity to enter in the market again. Ideally on a support or a resistance.
In definitive, being in margin call should warn you that your trading behavior is dangerous in a medium to long run. The probability for you to crash your acccount sooner or later is damn high.
ZEC 1DZEC saw some very intense buying action during it's time at Consensus. Price shattered through the Kumo and is still stabilizing.
Stochastic/MACD/TRIX all showing bullish signals although, Stochastic is nearing its top and we could see price back down to previous psychological support before deciding where to go next.
Today's Lesson (#4) : Adjusting the leverage to volatilityIn this educational content video I had to cover one the biggest noob trader mistake, trading with too much leverage.
That's basically what flushes out almost 80% of the noobs. Getting the margin call, putting more money into trading than you initially expexted.
All of this is well known as gambling problems. And the recent flow of beginners who went to the markets with hopes of easy gains, most are now feeling the painful experiment of what the market is doing to fools.
So I hope you'll learn something important today with that lesson. Cause if you don't, then you'll probably have to learn it the hard ways later...
Ethereum analysis - 4 hour chart.Overall the price has been in an ascending channel with well defined psychological support and resistance as seen by our blue trendlines. This falls in line perfectly between roughly the 0.786 and 1 fib levels.
Ichimoku - The clouds senkou lines have been rising. This tells us the average price equilibrium is rising. Strong supports on these levels as they align with fib .7 and 1. Tenkan and Kijun sen are beginning to range. Downward price action is losing momentum.
MACD - oversold and we should see a test one the resistance line and look for a bullish cross
RVI - should test support at 36.1 before a bounce
Stochastic RSI - Currently testing resistance. K line bearish moving down.
ADX - Trend has been losing steam
DIs - bearish divergence on the DIs they should expand before testing resistance and we should look to see a bullish cross
Bubble chart 'Return to normal' phase right now? Look at shape and volume
I now agree (albeit a bit late) Loops and Rivers&Mountains.
Bubble chart is a meme and so is log chart, but 2 memes make a right
techcrunch.com
People are psychologically anchored to high BTC values from the 20k run. BTC could easily go back and test where it came from (ie. low 4-digits to 3-digits). Sentiment seems to match the meme bubble chart. Many were and still are in denial in the past months that BTC will go to those so-called 'extreme' lows ("everyone will just buy at 5k/3k/1k", "I wish it goes that low, but it will never happen", "buy now for new bull season" etc.). Many are now calling for 20k, 30k, etc. again thinking this is the start of the new bull cycle.
The bull run has been going on non-stop for years now. If it has truly ended for now (which I think it has), we are heading to 'goblin town,' as an acoustic shorter called Turnip once said.
TRUST the whales, LOVE the whales, BE th.. no.Go with the whales.
I want to start an open discussion on the psychological side that whales love to manipulate so nicely. (this goes for little whales on alts as well)
We all know that whales eat tiny fish that are really tasty. And so if you don't want to be eaten do not stand in their way. It's as simple as that.
But the natural question that occurs in one's minds is, How do I know when a whale wants to eat (me)?
Bitcoin is at its crucial/crux point for the last few weeks and one could argue that the crux is always the present moment but let us leave that for another discussion maybe.
We all seen the recent "anomaly" in crypto that occurred on 2018-04-12 where whales killed many standing fish and furthermore attracted a lot more from alts so that they can get in at lower prices. It was an amazing move and an isolated case concerning Bitcoin and ALTS/BTC pairs (the ALTS/USD prices went up along with BTC/USD). There was to be expected a big move from the whales after such a long stagnant period.
The point that I am trying to get across is think like a whale: "If the market is going for some time on a more or less straight line how can I f*** up the market and make nice profit? OOo look FISH (mmmmm) :) that are still in FUD and FoMO and don't really know where to go... let's kill some."
See, in this case, you just had to wait them make the first move and buy some cheap alts (ALTS/BTC pairs or ALTS/USD pairs as well) and probably swing trade them.
Don't try to resist them and understand that they always want to squeeze the most out of the market and in the current state of the market even more so. That is one of the reasons why is still think we will get to see a lower BTC bottom.
I won't get into prices on this educational idea, for that you can check/follow:
Looking to confirm market psyhocology reversal from BEAR to BULL Markets are dominated by psychology, and this can easily be seen in price action when there are either good news or bad news for an asset. The majority might not really care about the news itself, but they will try to predict other people caring, and make their move on this. Some other people will then see a small move in the direction of the news and FOMO into that movement believing the news impact (which, in essence, is not wrong). Markets always move in packs of bulls or bears, with a few bulls/bears going the opposite direction trying to time the reversal for major profits.
So, how does one "time" the reversal? Usually, buying into weakness and selling into strength is the best way to do so, but you might end up getting trapped as the market continues moving in the direction opposite of your move.
As said before, the market is dominated by psychology, so the only way to anticipate a strong move is to measure the hype and the price numbers, while also keeping an eye on volume to determine if the current trend is confirmed by the majority or not. A very good example of reversal was when Bitcoin touched $20,000.00. It was in an unprecendeted FOMO hype-wave, and had all the characteristics of a speculative bubble run. From 1k to 5k it took almost 8 months. From 9k to 20k it took barely 2 months, with a jump from 9k to 12k occurring almost in the same day because the hype was so strong. You could read up anywhere and people would be talking about Bitcoin as if it was a godsent asset, unbeatable, like it would never drop and reach millions on that very same rally. That was the overall sentiment.
And then the price reached 15k, then 17k, then it touched 20k. 20k is a "psychological attractive number" to make moves on. As the market was going up, it was a good place to make a move on the opposite direction, meaning selling/taking profits. This caused the hype to start losing strength, and late-buyers started to see profits slow down/be neutral/be negative. Smart money started to get out, and a small selloff ensued. The price crashed to about 16k. "Buy the Dip" mentality ensued, and price jumped back to 18k, which was the first bull trap on the bubble popping. Another selloff ensued, since price didn't seem to be stable. The late buyers started to worry and started to get out, ensuing another sell off. And then the bubble popped. Crashing all the way to 9k, a huge "buy the dip" mentality took place, and price went back to ~13k, which was another bulltrap on the bubble popping. And then price kept slowly crashing, all the way to 6k. A few other bulltraps ensued, price managed to jump back to 9k, but didn't hold as people were still trying to get out of a bubble popping asset. Fear took place, and price stablized for days in the 6-7.5k range. A short squeeze took place, and price jumped from 6.8 all the way to 8.2 in less than five minutes. This started a rally and price is currently stable at ~8.3k, being volatile from 7.8k to 8.5k.
I'm currently trying to determine if is this the start of a bullmarket, or is it yet another bulltrap. So how do I do this:
Overall sentiment is the most important aspect. Validations will only confirm a change in trend. The majority of people seem to be agreeing in a trend reversal right now. Buy markets percentage are at end of December/start of January levels (meaning 90% of market orders are buy orders). This is just a few weeks after a short squeeze took place, where the majority of margin orders were betting on the asset to drop in price, and a small move in the opposite direction caused stop-losses triggering and completing buy orders, starting an "automated" rally. This rally could have been the very start of the long awaited market reversal. As of writing, this is nothing more than a bulltrap on a lower-high.
On lurking, trading, emotions and risk. This is about psychology - that 'no-go' area. In this video I explore negative emotions from different aspects. I look at how emotions are connected to risk and risk management.
Avoidance is connected both to risk and emotions.
I say that the biggest part of trading is about separating emotions from the objective assessment of risk
EOS 1 hourRoom to fall down to .382 fib level.
ADX bear cross
Stoch should range before it diverges in a bullish fashion.
S&P 500 1 hrPrice will most likely retrace to 0.236
If it does and volume becomes increasingly bullish then watch for a bounce off the triangle bottom.
The big issue with technical analysis. In this video I give a few minutes of preview before discussing what I see on this weekly time frame. Bear with me as you'll see where I'm heading.
In the second half of the video I show how I estimate the big probability from the weekly time frame. I'm not interested in being right in this. That's not what I want to get across.
Whilst technical analysis is a useful 'tool', I assert that there is a bigger issue of individual psychology in the background that is hardly ever spoken about.
Loads of new traders especially, will spend a disproportionate amount of time on indicators and fail. They're missing where the big issues are, and it's nothing to do with charts or technical analysis.
So, I'm saying that all new traders really need to dig deeper. Yes - learn about technical indicators, but focus on the unseen i.e. biases, emotions, justifications, coping with loss etc.
I'd be delighted if other traders out there can share their experiences (good or bad ones). Come on be brave!
The dangers in listening to the newsI'm sharing a chart to give my sentiments about listening to the news. New traders especially tend to listen to the news and website opinions about where markets are heading. I show a bit on how I approached a particular situation on the US30.
A lot of news is late and people who create news items or blogs have their own biases, based on the information they have.
The news can be dangerous to trading as it can cause a trader to become apprehensive, doubtful and stay out of trade setups that may be quite sound for entry.
News can be depressing and cause a trader anxiety.
Some very important earthshaking news may be useful e.g. some major monetary policy change in Europe or America. But on the whole, listening to or reading news is fraught with problems.
I've found that I make better decisions when I approach the markets with a kind of fearlessness described by Mark Douglas . The fearless state of mind is not 'recklessness'. It is about calmly making decisions and accepting risks in a reasonable way, based on a tested strategy.
None of the above or the video is advice to traders.
Self-discipline - what's that?Whilst I am on a roll, I'm pushing out loads of questions and thoughts that have occupied me for the last two years. All this is well ' Beyond Technical Analysis '!
In too many trading/training videos out there, I've heard the words 'discipline' and 'self-discipline'. These are so commonly used words that many take their meaning for granted, or as something very elementary. I know - because I was one of those people who thought I knew what the words meant.
However, there is also a thing called self-deception which works against self-discipline. Self-deception at its heart, is the ability of the mind to justify anything! Quite simply - it's dangerous.
The Collins Dictionary defines self-discipline as, " controlling of oneself or one's desires, actions, habits ... .. the act of disciplining or power to discipline one's own feelings, desires... with the intention of improving oneself. " It's easier now to see how this connects to trading environments.
A sound trader needs a lot of personal self-control over actions, habits, feelings and desires. I add 'thinking processes'. Certainly there must be a routine that improves one abilities, as the markets are not static. Their behaviour changes so one needs to improve to match those changes.
The obvious question for many (especially new traders) is, " How do I become more disciplined? " I'm afraid there is no magic formula that I can prescribe. I can only share a few personal experiences that drove me to become more disciplined.
It's like a weird sandwich:
A firm and unshakeable desire to make myself consistently profitable.
Pain i.e. painful mistakes.
Non-acceptance that if others could do it, I couldn't.
Pain drives people - let's not debate that. By pain I include from the worse kinds of suffering to the more subtle kinds. One can include things like frustration, anger and disappointment. Pain stood like a distasteful filling between the two sides of my sandwich. I just couldn't ignore it. If I wanted to make this thing right I had to fix the pain; all sources of it.
I was/am my own pain. My enemies arise from within me to cause me pain. My mind plays tricks on me in trading environments. To deal with the sources of pain I had to deal with my own mind, else just give up. I'm no quitter! So whilst I do not claim near-perfect discipline now, I have been addressing the trickery of my own mind - those inner enemies - that thwart my thinking processes. After all, if I don't the whole sandwich (three bullet points above) become nothing - and I'd have to join the 90-odd percent of people who give up on trading in the first couple years.
Am I saying that pain is a necessary ingredient for everybody to reach a greater self-disciplined state? Well yes I am! In every walk of life people have to suffer some sort of discomfort in achieving their goals. If you wanted to become a top-rated lawyer, you would have to suffer the 'pain' of years of study, and the trauma of being beaten in court rooms. If you want to get to the North Pole on foot, that involves pain and personal sacrifice. But nobody gets to the North Pole alive, with poor discipline. I shan't go on to mention other areas where people suffer extreme discomfort in order to achieve their goals.
If there are take away points to consider, traders should to find out what they are about and anchor themselves on what they want and what they won't have. Then, systematically whittle away at all obstacles by robust self-refection. It takes time - and bargain for pain! Do the time - take the pain. Don't blow up a live account.
Courses, horses - or the mind?If you’re reading this looking just for the best course to attend, you may be disappointed. I go deeper than the simple issue of 'which courses' or 'what course is best'. The sharing of my personal experience may be of value to new traders but also for more seasoned traders.
INTRODUCTION
I’m sharing a summary of my experiences over the last 4 years, so that others can see something more about ‘courses’ – and what courses can never give you.
I am nobody known or big in the trading world. I do not offer advice in this or any other post. I do not train anybody. I do not seek anybody's money for any service. I do not require recognition. Take all of what’s written here as 'what I've learned' and cautiously apply the parts of it that you find of any value. Where I use words like ‘you’ and ‘yours’, this is my self-talk as if I’m advising myself all over again. I do this all the time. You're not mad if you're doing self-talk. It is an important thing to do.
I started off with binary options and lost a fair amount of money. I watched numerous videos on YouTube about how to trade these, with numerous so-called successful strategies. In my searches I came across Spreadbetting, and did the same. More money lost. I then signed up with various trainers and spent more money there. More losses. I'm to blame I was led to understand because I didn't follow the rules. That's true to some extent - but something fundamental was missing. Why could I not follow the rules of some strategy invented by others? It's about why this post is in the Trading Psychology section of Tradingview.
I followed various gurus on websites, paid more money and still no success. Most of these gurus had state of the art audio-visual equipment and studios. They usually appeared with large microphones, conspicuous and 'in the face'. Is that really necessary? Some will say it’s all about better sound quality.
Then I got into ‘trading diaries’ and other things people out there said I should do. Still major problems.
So, what was missing? To put it in a nutshell the problem was grappling with my personal psychology . This is about the way I work - how my mind functions in relation to risk, which would be different to everybody else. Psychologists may be able to tell you a bit about how minds in general work. They cannot tell you exactly how ‘your mind’ works.
GURUS?
Most of the gurus I came across would mention psychology several times but never get to the heart of it. Naturally they're not psychotherapists, so they can't tell me how to sort myself out. Most trainers focused on 'discipline' which is fine, but they couldn't tell me how to become disciplined. What? - am I just supposed to pull myself together and follow a script? Some would say 'yes'. But this is not how the human being operates. If everybody could just pull themselves together and follow a trading plan and a set of rules, then everybody would be rich. Come on - we all know that's silly.
... truncated .
This post became so long, that it cannot fit on Tradingview. It is accessible here where I go on to explore:
GURUS?
RECOGNITION
METHODOLOGY AND STRATEGY
MIND AND PSYCHOLOGY
PATTERN REWRITING
IF I COULD TURN BACK TIME
I do apologise, and hope Tradingview allows this post to remain.
Let D4 Try Again: Psychology Of A Market Cycle!Hey Friends
This is a re-reupload. I was not allowed to write swear words. I hope you will give IT A BIG LIKE, and support this chart again due to its educational purpose! Thank you, my friends
This is an educational chart about the Psychology of a market cycle. Every market is determined by people's feelings. In this chart I have illustrated how people tend to feel through a market cycle. D4 has used BTCUSD as an example but it applies to every market.
Enjoy!
D4 loves you <3
Please give a BIG like - It really means a lot to me <3
psychology of a market cycleAlternative view of psychology of the market cycle.
Response to the linked idea of D4rkEnergY
D4rkEnergY:
www.tradingview.com
Comparison: psychology of the market cycle
medium.com
Next quick BTC / EUR "analysis"I don't really follow all technical analysis methos.
How I do my predictions is based mostly on psychology. Patterns that look like they would repeat - but go the other way around just to form nice traps. And such.
I do my chart analysis based on how I feel what could be right and so far I have been correct quite a few times. Not always being like 1min chart correct, but I'm okay with it.
Enjoy my next prediction and take care of your money!
If I am correct here, the following hours could get very very hard to do highly profitable trades with. I only see small buy & sell space to trade with in this longer drop scenario.
Oh and by the way: My bear avatar doesn't mean I am always bearish. I'm bear / bull whatever the direction the charts go.
Feel free to paste in your chart predictions in the comments!
PS: Why is there no "psychology" category in the dropdown menu
EURUSD still BEARISH although option markets are record long EURUpdate on my SECULAR EUROUSD Short. After having clearly failed to break the secular downtrend channel at 1.2500 I continue to stress that EURUSD is overbought, both technically and by the record number of long option contracts. Please do not get caught long EURO and continue to sell on bounces. I trade it daily and been trading it for ages, obviously I rely on technical indicators as per my previous comment. But market psychology and behavior is as much important. We have a situation where nearly everyone is on the same side, long euro, and since hitting 1.2500 every time the chart highlights a buy signal the EURUSD fails to reach its short term target, then price suddenly reverse: we have a series of constant false breaks towards the upside...This is a clear sign everyone is trying to get out of longs (while many still hold their position....so capitulation still ahead). Lets now talk about levels. 1.2200 nest support and target. But where I will first close my short is 1.2085 (Previous door to 1.2500 and now trap for 1.1500) where I believe we have a major support and will not go short again until we close 2 consecutive days below 1.2085. In the meantime I stress you to not buy EUR and sell only on pullbacks. But then again you do what you want :-)..this is my personal opinion. On the short Picture I think we will see some buying at 1.2200, mostly fueled by short term traders. The EUR attempted and failed to correct the 1.2500 -1.2300 drop: when pulling a classic Fibonacci Retracement indicator and the cross fails to retrace more than 25%, the market is clearly trending (downwards in this case) and further losses are to be expected. Again from a behavioral perspective this means longs are trying to get out of their positions and the more time passes the more they are willing to accept lower prices, this before the obnoxious ones, who fail to accept the bear market, will capitulate.
PS; By tomorrow I will also publish on my blog theforecaster.eu
