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Psychology

A Simple ExerciseThis is an exercise for everybody who is new to trading and trading cryptoassets in particular. You may want to try this before you bet your house. It's very simple: You take some money that you can afford to lose . However the amount should be substantial enough that losing it would hurt you - if only a little. You put that money on your cryptocurrency exchange of choice. You wait. Should price reach the green area in the chart within the next four weeks, you go all in and buy Bitcoin for the whole amount you deposited. To be continued... P.S. This exercise won't work if you just do it on paper. You will need to use actual money to buy actual Bitcoin. But please, be sensible when choosing the size of your investment. Remember, you might loose it all.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Nathan_the_Wise
2
Ripple XRP the Ultimate Pump n Dump or Mid-Term Play? BITFINEX:XRPUSD Genuinely watching Ripple while trying to avoid the extremes of the pumpers. Unfortunately I got into the blockchain space late but have been devouring information like crazy. While waiting for my funds to transfer in to any exchange I could get on was painful. While waiting for a wire, then Crypto Capital to CEX, Ripple moved from 0.23 to $2 (CEX was early for the move up due to low volumes). This was beyond frustrating. When I realized my Bitfinex account was set up - yes you can trade without being verified - I felt that Ripple already went too far too fast (at $1). The latest news took it to $2.40+ but the cliff is now occurring. To me, this is more like a buy on rumour, sell on facts (aka pump n dump) than a real value play. Or is it? Why? Anyone who really researches blockchains, knows the limitations. IOTA is hands down better and solves all the blockchain issues. I don't foresee banks or others going with Ripple if IOTA creates their own version, with none of the same issues as blockchain. Ripple was great for anyone who got in sub- $0.25, just as a spec trade but I don't see any future value in Ripple, once banks realize: Ripple is only needed for the short term, until they develop their own, most likely based on Tangle. IOTA's Tangle is better, with none of the blockchain issues. Financial powers use a Tangle based crypto created by IOTA. Governments create their own Tangle based cryptos. Ripple was a great spec trade and I'm sure made many people a lot of money. Can anyone tell me how Ripple can make money and why that justifies a crypto value of $100B+ in market cap? I can understand the spec trade, but not the value based on technology that is already outdated compared to the competition. IMO, the future belongs to IOTA or another block-less technology.
BITFINEX:XRPUSDShort
by Miykael
10
STRAT/BTC (LONG) analysisSTRAT is a coin that is following market psychology on the dot. STRAT bottomed and then hit the accumulation zone. It is currently in the phase of "Revival" and could easily repeat history by passing prior ATH. STRAT has also tested its platform and will have two ICO's being dropped on in late January: twitter.com According to the CEO, one of these companies is already huge in China. Technically, and fundamentally strong, STRAT is one to watch out for 2018.
SLong
by XtreemxZ
2
The markets are there to make you feel stupid or brilliantMany a trader will have made their best analysis based on information at the time and then taken an entry position, only to find that the market does something unexpected. Price may move violently in the wrong direction i.e. not the favoured direction and comes close to a stop loss or actually stopping out the position for a loss. Now with hindsight a trader feels or thinks, " How stupid - I should have seen it coming. I shouldn't have done that. " This happens enough times to new traders. Seasoned traders live with it and have less such self-talk. I think it's important to acknowledge those feelings. These are partly thinking processes and emotional processes. New traders often feel demoralised after 10 or so failures in a row. " Am I doing something wrong? " - they may think. This is a reasonable question. It could be that something is wrong. However, nothing may be found wrong with one's methodology or application of one's personal rules - after a careful reassessment. It's good to check. The BTCUSD chart shows what is some sort of 'head and shoulders' pattern. It's not the best picture of it in the world but something is there. Wherever one takes a position in BTCUSD, it could be wrong. Why? The markets respect no one person. A proportion of traders will have taken a position in this and made some real profits. They will punch the air and with joy go, " YESSSS!! " From my long experience I've learned that 'feelings' of being right or wrong, actually bends the mind a trader. I'm speaking for myself quite clearly. Others may have similar experience. A feeling of being good after a string of wins, often creates a subconscious sense of confidence. Imperceptibly this can creep into future trades and then one realises some major losses. My own strategy is to try at best to reduce trading frequency and exert even greater diligence in entering trades after a series of wins. I aim to expect the unexpected. It's always a tad difficult when I get stopped out for a loss. But I repeat to myself that the stoploss is there to protect against the 'unexpected' - so it's not actually unexpected. It is a limit. It is the expected limit of price moving not in a favoured direction. There is no single path to 'a promised land' in trading. Traders can adopt different methods, different rules, and be consistently profitable. The largest obstacle which is difficult to train out a trader, is their own personal psychology . By this I mean things like attention to detail, biases, emotions, discipline etc. So in many ways feeling stupid or brilliant can affect our future decision-making in imperceptible ways. Traders can lose discipline after losses or big gains. Mark Douglas spoke about these sorts of things. The BTCUSD chart is not intended to attract thoughts on whether to go long or go short. I'm not really interested in whether the H&S is there at all or correctly drawn. I'm taking it beyond that. What happens next to traders who come out of this period - some bruised, some overjoyed? Trading is not about winning one trade or a small handful. It's about the long road ahead. I'm delighted if others can share their experiences.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Captain_Walker
New to the Cryptogame and learning painful lessons along the wayI always believed that you learn the most when you get hurt. I dove into the market with the fear of missing out on the tremendous upside and potential of this platform. I have long been programmed by the mainstream institutional investors that getting 10-15 gains are the best. I have risked a lot in the stock market before and have been fairly successful so this is yet another endeavor into something new. The first mistake that i made was getting swooped in by the herd mentality and thinking that I was still early in the game. Besides I was the only one talking about bitcoin and its potential. So I figured there's time and since everybody else was not able to take I chance. I went ahead and decided to jump in. Unfortunately I got trapped into the coinbase waiting game and wiped out about 30 percent of my initial investment on paper. When the correction was happening I kept thinking in my head that I should pull out and save the remaining capital. Fortunately, the same thing that got me trapped during the fall also prevented me from getting out and actually realizing the loss. Its just paper loss so far. Then came the lessons learned from the stock market crash during the bank crash. Dizzy and nauseated by what appeared to be an imminent crash all the way down to zero a sudden calm state emerged. Ive been here before. Ive done this before. One mistake on the upside cant be corrected by another mistake on the downside. Painful lessons being learned will hopefully translate into success into this new platform. To all the ones that are dipping their toes...educate yourself, learn from the experience, and tread cautiously. Take your time and contemplate your actions. In time if you truly believe that cryptocurrencies are not a scam or a ponzi scheme...things will be alright. Here's to learning growing and maybe making a new living!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by bderosas1920
1
DOW 25K or Gap Fill for xMAS?Hi Traders, Wasn't able to post this as quickly as I wanted to. After a 100 point straight fall upon open we always see the same thing: Back to the top we go. What happens when we get there? The question remains, how will markets react... we're slightly over 100 points away from the psychological number that is 25.000, but there's also a HUGE gap that needs to be filled in the mid 600s level. It can EASILY go both ways as the Tax Bill hype has calmed down. I Recommend trading a simple breakout strategy. 1hr Candle close above current ATH then long to 25K. And vice versa if we get into the '"Gap" area.
TVC:DJI
by ChasingTheMarket
USDJPY - getting ready to sell or buyOn the chart i marked 2 circles - red and green , green will be the price zone to buy after a false break down and red will be the sell zone after a false break up. Also red zone will be the 38% retrace zone of the last move down - i didn't marked it because i don't want the chart will be to messy. Anyway, the really important idea here regardless to the buy / sell from top to bottom is the entry price opportunity for longer term buyers/sellers - eventually i think USDJPY can go to 110 zone or 112 zone ( without to much of retracement ). Best of luck to the bulls and bears :-)
by uriyaz
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 2.1The psychological aspect and my thought process Hello everybody, I'm so sorry that the migration did not as fast as I'd like it to be and, finally on last it's done and I can be back on trading. Before i touch on how i would trade, i suddenly thought sharing my thought process would make so much more sense because literally you will understand how i use my strategies. I felt there are so many good systems around but it becomes ineffective in may cases because i cannot execute it the way its creator does perfectly. After trading for many years, i also felt the best strategies, whether its original or copied, will be successful if it becomes your "strategy". This requires a lot of practise, patience and perseverance to keep trying. So if you are feeling lost out there, don't be because everyone goes through almost the same process. I'd like to do a quick recap on what has been shared so far. In part 1, I spoke mostly on breakout on the A6 traded on CME and then, how to use a simple pullback to trade it. Part 2 follows up on part 1 which focus on not chasing the market if you have missed it as in most cases, from the 3rd impulse move(up) onward as it loses momentum. Rushing into trading a trend that has lost its momentum can keep you longer in a position longer then it should be. This exposes you to risk which can be external (unexpected central bank announcements, data announcements, war etc) or internally which is your psychology at that moment. If you are trading smaller account, the trade locks up your capital which may also lead to additional holding cost or opportunity risk. In some cases, it frustrates you so much that you start doing funny things like scalping, averaging in, adjusting stops etc. Why lose good money after bad? Trust me if you do get into such scenarios, just bite the bullet and cut it off!! Learn from it. The worse that happened to me was, i used to average in and adjust stops frequently for a period of time and occasionally make money out of it. Somehow, this creeps and lived in my sub conscious for a long time and unknowingly caused big draw downs and almost destroy me mentally and financially The next time, just practise and train yourself to be patience if you do encounter such a scenario and ask yourself 3 questions: 1) How many moves the market has made in this direction (stick to your time frame, do not use multiple time frame here!) 2) What is the risk to reward if i enter? 3) Trade smaller Just try to do this and you will see how much you benefit from making small and simple steps that shape your thought process and produces results which also reinforces positive psychology which is confidence! In part 2.2, i will produce a quick peek into my thought process and share how i would trade using another simple technique.
AEducation
by trutt79
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 2Hello everyone, i haven't been publishing much this week due to some platform migration issues. So, keeping my fingers cross that all will be resolved next week, Now, i'd just concentrate on delivering my educational series and hope to continue to benefit the trading public. In the first part, i shared a very simple momentum trading strategy. Simplicity works and allow you to make quick decisions if you are doing day trading. However, it does work on longer time frame as well. Do your own back testing and see how to make a strategy yours. So, after the strong up move, which i defined as the "impulse" move the instrument will come to a point where it loses the momentum. Profit taking, sellers taking up new positions, some news announcement whatever the case is. It doesn't really matter why. As a trader my thoughts are: "i want to go long assuming a longer uptrend is forming". Start to build a case around it. You can be on the sell side if you want to but my experiences tells me the chances of it going higher is there. What if it doesn't? Well, that is why I have a stop loss in place. So, if you refer to the chart above, the market is in the 3rd stage of the impulse move. Usually from the 3rd to 5th move, i don't bother too much until the uptrend line broke. So, the market has pierce through several structural resistances before a nice shooting star formation ended the impulse up move. Why do i still want to long? Again simplicity is at work. As long as the previous "New Structure High, Higher Low" remains intact my view does not change. There are tons of information which you can google on these terms. Feel free to study it. I'd be back on Part 2.1 with the actual trading plan as soon as possible! Till then, try to understand not the trading but how i shape my thinking before i trade it. Nothing is more important as developing the thought process.
AEducation
by trutt79
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 1. (Education)This will be a relatively shorter post and is a follow up on Part 1 (phew.... Good for me and you LOL) So, i got this situation where there was a breakout on the 4 hour, mark with a dash line on the 1 hour. The first thing that came to my mind will be: A) I want to long B) I will not short even if there is a reversal (Unless 7700 is broken) C) Where will i long? What is my initial risk to reward? So, instead of chasing price action, i'd use a very simple method for a certain completion of the latest low. The key part to succeed here is you have to start watching the market and wait for a classical higher high higher low formation usually in the form of 2 candles. You might be asking "Don't you use some sort of indicator"? As a matter of fact, i rarely use it because i find it too troublesome. I'm watching a lot of markets and i'm not going to throw all my eggs in one trade. But if you want, i could use an ATR (for stop distance placement) or RSI (below 80 or above 20). That's it. So, after the formation of "higher high, higher low", my entry is 2 pips above its last high, and 3-5 pips below the swing low. Don't worry about it because my first target is usually conservative at 1:1 risk to reward and likely i'd take half or one third. No right or wrong but try to fix at predetermine amount to exit. The position size i take is never more then 2 percent of my equity but the actual size depend on the stop placement. Once this is achieved, i simply move my stop to break even and target 1:2 risk to reward. I may have exited fully or still have one third of position left. I'd simply trail it with swing highs and low. Remember the golden rule that stop can only move when it is meant to lock more profits then before. I felt this is a very simple way to trade and is easily executable by anyone although it does take a lot of practise to do so. Why rush anyway? Trading is a marathon and the longer you are in the race, the more you are likely to succeed! I hope this simple method helps you. Free free to drop me any questions i'd try to answer as much as possible!
AEducation
by trutt79
Fulfilling a promise to share my trading Part 1. (Education) Please ignore the previous post as I lost internet connection Dear all, as mentioned i not only want to share trading signals and ideals but more on my psychology. There are tons of signals and ideals just on this platform itself. I do not see I'm the best out there, nor am I not trying to be special or trying to sell something. I have always been wanting to contribute to the community and this is one of the best way to do it. The more I share, the more i learn as well. My view of a trading career is that it'd be one of the toughest endeavor you undertake in your life because you need to be constantly aware of your own emotions, keeping your actions in check and be patience. I mean, who can do this day to day? I can't for sure. There are countless days where emotions creep in and before I knew it, I did something totally contrary to my plan. My honest opinion is, I can never be perfect. What I do is to admit that and find ways to be better, but stop trying to be perfect because the market never is as well. HAHA. *** Please bear with my "English", I've a lot to improve on for myself on that. *** I'm breaking down this into a few series because it can be very dry to read all at one shot. OK, let me start by going back to the very beginning in which a 4 hour Bullish Bat is discovered. If I go to a larger time frame, we can see that A6 has been on an uptrend on a longer term basis when it broke 7700. Momentum was good. This move began on 13th July and lasted all the way to 27th. (The first part is dedicated to momentum and swing traders) It's always easy when we are conducting post mortem analysis on price action. Who can't see its an uptrend and we should go long? While that is true, there ain't much ways to learn besides that. I don't see much of a issue if, you already have a trade plan that encompass a entry, stop loss and viable risk to reward ratio. Such post mortem exercise are only useful if you do it in a meaningful way. So, with the beginning of the break on 7700, this instrument should already be on your radar. The first thing that comes into my mind is: 1) This breakout is confirmed as the close above 7700 is confirmed. You have to believe in it because you can't execute or take action if you don't. This is the point where previous false breakout creeps into your mind and says: "haha you are not going to fool me!". If you develop such habitual thinking, you are going to face a lot of execution problems and this is where many attempt to trade "tops" or reversals, in total contrary to a swing trade long. Trading requires a lot of muscle memory. To be successful trading momentum and swing, you must constantly cast away contradicting signals and focus on your predetermined swing or momentum quantifiers. Build it into your subconscious by practice. 2) Accept that the best plan will fail. Having said the first point, are we going to be stubborn and keep trading? The answer is no. You see, even the best get it wrong. So, I personally propose let the market decide on that. If you have a plan, you always have a stop loss. A stop loss is there to tell you to review your trade plan if you got stop out. By the way, if you have the habit of moving your stops, I'd suggest you practice to keep it. Personally, I only move stops when my trade becomes profitable. Once an entry is triggered, believe in your plan and let the market decide. 3) Do not be greedy. Again, I cannot emphasize enough on sticking to the plan. In the last 10 years, greed has been one of the emotions that affects my trades a lot. Who doesn't want a winner? Umpteen times with good profits I failed to capture and ended up being stop out. "Revenge" is sweet. The vicious cycle of doubling up, moving my stop loss began and by the time I realize it, I had a big loss. So, when you enter the market, a stop loss and profit targets is a must.
AEducation
by trutt79
Building a case to long Euro Trading is similar to investigative work. At this point and time, I do not know the high is formed or not but it's ok since I trade pull backs and I want to illustrate how I use various perspective to gather evidence to substantiate a trade. So, if the current high is at 1.2082, what I'd do is to wait for Euro to pullback to the zone highlighted in Blue. I am willing to take a trade because A) Risk to reward is in my favor B) This blue zone will hold if the evidence point conclusively to long C) I do not have to guess where the breakout ends and is not stress It works for me because I have time to build my trade plan, knowing the risk to reward is in my favor, and of course your own statistics of win/loss ratio that it becomes "easy to manage". I may still get it wrong after waiting but the result of this trade itself does not determine the long term outcome of your equity curve. As long you adopt certain mindset that winning and losing is part of the game, you are ahead of the game.
ELong
by trutt79
Dissecting ES: Shorting at Structure or Breakout?ES As of now, what we know is Friday's rally fizzled out into the afternoon session and was close to retest the low. This suggest the bears are still around to battle with the bulls for the bullish structure between 2420.5 to 2404. What is conclusive is that the uptrend has been broken and attempts to rally failed at 2440, which is now a bearish level. As long as this level is not retaken by buyers, there are more downside risks. In Part I, i mentioned of a long potential at 2375 (Daily Cypher) after this selloff bottom out. This is part of my plan to trade ES. Speaking of which, could the market selloff to that level? I'd leave that in your hands.  The second trade I missed was the late morning retracement back to test 2440. (You can find this in my previous blog, Dissecting ES Part II.) Back to the present, ES is now entrenched between a major support structure and important resistance level at 2440. Frankly, i do not wish to trade on the long side as there are not enough confluence of factors that i should go long. When i view my trades in risk to reward fashion, i could quickly decide that any trades i am taking now will be short term and do not expect big risk to reward if I'm trading it. I'd wait for price action to trade to 2436 to 2444 where i could have at least a 1:1 risk to reward. Another trade i will envision is a breakout trade on Fri's low at 2419.75. It could mean a test on 2404, which if broken will be bearish. For my experiences on breakout, i would think if the breakout is within a support structure, there is only lesser then 50% chance of it working. So if you are going to trade it, I recommend taking the trade on 15 min chart where you could manage the trade better. I'd then take a 2 ATR risk against a 2 ATR reward upon entry (Depending on your trade size and max losses permitted). Whatever you are going to do, consider it from a risk to reward perspective and work your plan out. I might not be right all the time, but if I keep your risk controlled it will keep my trading career alive till the next boat out. Good luck and have fun! 
CME_MINI:ESU2017Short
by trutt79