Peleton: Possible Dump to the Mid to Upper 70s on EarningsHello traders,
Peleton is up there with one of the most overvalued stocks in the market right now and should be traded with caution. How overvalued is it? Well, it works out to that each customer based on their valuation is worth over $30,000 dollars which obviously is absolutely absurd and unsustainable.
Currently, Peleton is trading off a Wave 4 and I expect it to dump somewhat after earnings tomorrow. The target it could drop to would be around the 76-80 level. Having said that I see that as temporary as it will likely grind afterwards to the mid to upper 90s before completing a final Wave 5 before a sharp ABC correction downwards.
For those who own the stock I would sell at-least 50% of your holding for profit and ride the final Wave 5 over the next month. I would not buy the stock pre-earnings from here.
-zSplit
Pton
PTON Bullish and bearish flow before earningsBacktested the breakout point ($72.1) on Sep 4 or pivot point and held the 20 SMA. Earnings whisper is expecting .13c EPS and $560 mill revenue. Previous Q was $524 Mill, which was a beat. Bullish option flow bought Sep 2 - Over 4000 Sep 11 $120 calls bought and 2900 $110 calls (These would be all down). Bearish flow - On sep 1, Oct/ Jan 2021 call spread $80 bought sold the $85's. Sep 4, the Apr 2021 $90 calls were sold. I would play the run up into ER, then sell.
Is Peloton a fad? Who cares. Make moneyI know some people not touching PTON stock because they think it's a fad.
Lucky for us technicians, it's irrelevant.
We know our risk. We know our target. We know how to manage the position. All without having an opinion.
I prefer staying away from fundamental hot debates, but to me this is obviously not just a bike company. They've built a brand that everyone talks about... That every influencer on Social posts about. Everyone I know knows about them... and I know about this little pandemic that's making it really hard for me to go to the gym.
So I don't know if the company will have this brand power 5 or 10 years from now, but I know the price of the stock is in a clearly defined and tradable range.
ridethepig | A retrace in play for home fitness📌 Peloton
One of the aspects of consumer behaviour that has changed the most over the past few months has been the approach to fitness and home-enablers. As we introduced a deep and accurate buy approach it helped that Fed and other CB's helped to raise the bar even higher with their ambitious and methodical (right...) approaches.
So, as with many other improvements, the $2,000 coat hanger consists of a monthly subscription service which members can go through daily. However we would need to see consumers continue to cough up $2,000 for an exercise bike when the economy is tanking. We are certainly not ready for mass adoption and growth until the economy heals. Armed with a pair of trainers and one can produce the same outcome although I refuse to demonstrate illustratively ... maybe one day on Tradingview streams!
In any case, the format of the flow is quite simple. Throughout the impulsive leg it was a matter of letting bulls over-extend before finding a comprehensive fade.
As usual thanks for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Looks like a breakout from a bullish flag. Did anyone jump in? I hear a lot of speculation that gyms will never be the same. Plus 24hr is closing many gyms. A lot of home gyms will not be reopening. But it is summer, will these expensive indoor bikes continue to sell? I am tempted to jump in right now. Any thoughts?
I Missed The Re-entry :/ - 06/09/20 RECAPHi traders,
Losing in one particular stock doesn't mean you should be done with it for the remainder of the day. One deeper pullback got me out of my PTON Long which then offered a really nice profitable opportunity later in the day which I sadly didn't take advantage of and cost myself money!
Trades:
1) PTON - LONG @46.23, -1.02%
*In my ID trades, I risk 1% of the account per trade and go for 2% (2:1 RRR ). Sometimes I adapt a little bit as you can see in the trades' description.*
Total PnL for the day: -1.02%
Total PnL for the week: +0.11%
Good trades,
Tom | FINEIGHT
PTON retracement this is pretty dumb.
last times RSI was this high the stock made a 20% correction back to the mean ~$30.
Also made tops in RSI in the daily time frame as well.
Long time support in green, weak supports dashed green lines.
Fundamentals:
PTON sells overpriced electric cycling bikes during a recession.
The market is as rational as a chicken without a head.
PTON recently rallied after breaking the descending triangle marked in purple due to their increased sales of bikes due to the lockdowns.
now that lock downs are being removed, its very likely people will stop ordering them and the hype dies.
I think its very possible that this stock gets carried back to its ATH on a positive market and even higher.
this is an isolated test of the RSI indicator.
PTON 28p 6/19
dyor.
Questioning with Why, Who, Which will give clue...? PTONAsk your self following and try to get answer by studying from any source:-
Why did gap 20% gap up opening?
Who have sold this stock at the top?
Which type of GAP is this?
You can type in comment section about it?
--> Study and Discussion always give new way of something, isn't it?
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