Bitcoin Bear Trap: A Historical Pattern Suggests a Rally Ahead!BTCUSDT technical analysis update.
The Puell Multiple is a metric that compares the daily issuance of Bitcoin (in USD) to the 365-day moving average of that same issuance. When the Puell Multiple is low, it often indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued, signaling a potential accumulation phase or a bear trap. Conversely, a high Puell Multiple suggests overvaluation, often preceding market corrections.
Currently, the Puell Multiple shows that Bitcoin is trading at levels consistent with previous bear traps in its market history. This pattern has appeared in the last three cycles of Bitcoin, where price action initially suggested bearish momentum before reversing sharply into a bullish trend.
In the previous cycles, the Puell Multiple signaled bear traps, allowing traders to identify key accumulation points. Following these signals, Bitcoin experienced significant bullish rallies, highlighting the indicator's reliability. With the current Puell Multiple levels indicating a bear trap, we could be on the brink of a bullish rally in the coming days.
Regards
Hexa
Puellmultiple
This Indicator is Screaming "BUY"! Traders,
I recently dove a bit deeper into the Puell Multiple indicator. In this video, I want to share what I have discovered. We'll discuss: what the Puell Multiple is, what it calculates, and how that calculation is made. We'll also closely examine what this valuable indicator tells us about the current Bitcoin price. Enjoy.
Stew
Turning point or BullTrap! 14 July 2022, the day after tomorrow📈 Turning point or BullTrap! 14 July 2022, the day after tomorrow
Retail sales rose 1.0% in June, the most robust pace in three months, and above expectations for a 0.8%.
Following the report, economists at Jefferies pointing to the fall in gas prices, signaled optimism for a further boost in consumer spending that could set up the economy “for much stronger GDP growth in Q3.”
📝
Recap since this day:
Dollars American lost 2.30% since the 14 July
Crypto market +20% since 14july 60daySMA= 1,24T
BTC +24% since 14july , 60day SMA=28k
ETH +60% since 14july, 60days SMA=1,9k
BTC puell multiple goes from 0.34 to 0.52, since 14 July, miner profitability has increased by 52%, and still below 0.64 marking the end of the bear market (DCA zone still on 24 July then)
12 days until the next waning crescent (5 august), BTC can go up another 28%
Euro/USD has de-peg on the 14 July felling below the 1$ mark at 0,99500€\1$ and went up 3% since then
USOIL touched the 0,618 Fibonacci lines at 91$ the barrel (golden ratio) the 14 July. A rebound is expected if we touch this price multiple times in the coming days
TSL +24% since 14july
Bitcoin signal (fibionacci+puell multiple+market cypher)By assembling the Fibonacci retracement for every bull run, and the de Fibonacci speed from the 2015 bottom to the 2017 top for a macro view in the time and the amazing tool of market cypher, I also added the puell multiple to take into account the issuance of BTC flowing to the market I was able to find the best DCA zone for the Bitcoin.
Has Bitcoin made it to the top yet??Hi!
In this analysis, I present the arguments to show what many renowned traders already claim:
Bitcoin is only at the beginning of an uptrend.
Why do we have a strong uptrend?
In the red lines of the Bitcoin graph, we have the historical tops.
Below, I configured the CGO (Center of Gravity Oscillator) with a period of 200 days, using a Fibonnaci retraction that goes from 100 to -0.382.
In this indicator, we can see that we still have a lot of room to rise.
Why haven't we made it to the top yet?
We have a very interesting indicator developed by David Puell called "The Puell Multiple".
Basically in a nutshell, it identifies when miners are taking an abrupt and very unusual profit taking.
When we have a peak on this indicator above the red dotted line, we clearly have a top.
In the marked rectangles we can consider a possible exit point.
In the fall we had a few months ago, we can see that it didn't happen, so we still have a new top to discover.
Bitcoin's Market CyclesI know you've probably seen this kinda chart around many times, but this is only for a reminder.
In this post, iv'e outlined the "phases" within Bitcoin's cycles and the ones it has gone through in the past and what it is most likely to do next. Not saying it will repeat itself, but it is probably best to use as a rough outline.
There isn't much to say really since iv'e outlined the phases and cycle on the price chart along with how long they each last with their % gain, but iv'e outlined the main topics.
Four Main Topics
- Bitcoin Phases & Cycles (names of phases & idea not mine)
- 20 Weekly Moving Average from Bollinger Bands (this comes from filbfilb - check him out on here, twitter and telegram)
- Puell Multiple (easily outlines tops and bottoms)
- Non Linear Regression Curve (easily outlines tops and bottoms)
The reason behind this post is because I see many folks on various social media platforms expecting price to go lower, seeing 7k, 8k mentioned often, but by looking at this price chart can't help but disagree, who knows maybe this time around the cycle might break.
When to Get in Before Next Bull Market?
Look out for 20 weekly moving average and whenever price touches during the re-accumulation phase enter into long position and forget about it. This will most likely be your last and best chance of getting in before the next cycle starts. I first saw this pattern spotted by filbfilb
When & How Sell the Top and Buy the Bottom?
Puell Multiple (make sure it is in logarithmic scale)
- Sell into the red area or close to it (don't have to be exact with it)
- Buy into the green area or close to it (don't have to be exact with it)
Non-Linear Regression Curve
- Sell into the upper band
- Buy into the lower band
In conclusion, the way I see it is this price chart is the only one, one could ever need. Why? Because it easily calls the tops, bottoms, when to buy, when to sell, phases within the cycle. Maybe I'm bias because it's my own chart or because cycles repeat just like in everything else.
Hope you enjoyed the read; simple and short, but trading/investing is best done this way.
If you liked it, like it and comment! Thank you