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Gold Goes ATH Again, How to Work Pullbacks in Overbought MarketsGold Talking Points The massive move in gold has continued to yet another fresh ATH this morning, even with the US Dollar continue its own bullish jump. Trying to chase an overbought market like gold can feel like trying to jump on a rocket that’s already left the Earth, but that doesn’t mean that traders have the singular choice of fading it or avoiding it. There’s the potential for pullbacks such as I’ve been following in these articles over the past few weeks. Gold continues its massive 2024 outing with yet another fresh all-time-high today. This might sound like Groundhog Day, but the yellow metal just continues to impress even with weekly and monthly charts in overbought territory. As I asked a few weeks ago, does that even matter? Well, by the looks of price it does not, at least not at this point. As for explanations behind the move it’s been the Fed and other global central banks pushing towards rate cuts this year that’s propelled the breakout. And even in light of strong US data that, normally, would cause the FOMC to talk up rate hike potential, a hawkish Fed seems nowhere near, and markets are still leaning heavily on the expectation for the bank to cut through next year. Making matters more interesting is the USD backdrop with which the recent trend has run. The USD was weak in Q3 and gold broke out in mid-August and continued to run. The USD has posed a stark turn-around so far in Q4 and still, gold has run higher. At this point there’s no evidence to suggest that the run is finished. But that still doesn’t mean that chasing and hoping is a smart way to work with the move. There’s essentially two ways of working with the long side of an overbought market. One can use breakout strategies, which can be a challenge in and of itself. This opens the possibility of buying highs or selling lows, which can be painful ordeals. It’s not an impossible way to move forward, but traders need to have rigid risk management protocol to institute these types of strategies. Or – traders can wait and try to be patient, using pullbacks on shorter time frames. This still doesn’t guarantee success but at the least, risk can be managed in a more efficient manner by using prevailing price structure and if-then statements. While the move in gold has continued to hasten, there have been pullback setups. There was a setup leading into CPI last week, and another shorter-term after the release of the data point but before the breakout was able to extend. And then this week, there was a test below 2650, buyers holding the line there with a shorter-term higher-low opened the door for another extension of the move. Yesterday saw bulls push all the way up to the prior ATH at 2685, again, leading to a shallow pullback to the first support listed in the article at 2670. And that has since run into yet another fresh higher-high. Gold Fresh Highs – What’s Next? Human psychology has a funny role in markets as it often seems like the crowd gets most bullish at highs or near resistance and most pessimistic at tests of support. But there’s also the inter-play with psychological levels, as the price of 2600.01 can feel much more expensive than just two cents above 2599.99. We saw that play out at the FOMC rate cut last month. Gold tested above 2600 after news of the cut made its way through markets, but that was brief and short-lived as a fast pullback soon developed. The pullback from that tested below a minor psychological level at 2550, with bulls soon returning to push price back above 2600. At this point, we’ve seen continued reticence inside of 2700 so it seems as though bulls are shying away from a test from that price so far. But, if we do see that trade, that could be an open door for buyers to take profits, which can open the door for the next pullback. In that scenario, the prior ATH at 2685 becomes a point of interest for higher-lows. If that doesn’t hold and profit taking sets in a bit more, 2675 or 2667 become of interest. And technically, we could even see a pullback drive back down to 2650 while keeping the door open for higher-highs and lows on the daily chart. --- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
WHSELFINVEST:GOLDLong
by WHSelfInvest
SCHAEFFLER Swing Trade, Price is taking support from 50 EMASCHAEFFLER is taking support from 50 EMA in Weekly Chart. (For Swing Trade) We can go for long swing trade only after price going above 3530 with approx. 6% stoploss and 24% Target. Risk-Reward = 1:4 Plan your quantity/investment accordingly. Note : Its just an analysis, wait for the price to confirm. Disclaimer : Always follow risk to reward, this is the only key to success in market, no matter how much good a trade is looking we never know the future.
NSE:SCHAEFFLERLong
by smrgrover2
USDJPY Approaching Breakout: Will it Reach 147.21 or Pull Back?2H Chart Current Price: 144.252 After analyzing USD/JPY on the 2-hour chart, the price has broken through the major support and resistance level at 143.750. It is now approaching the upper boundary of a falling wedge, marked as the Breakout and Reversal line. We anticipate that this line could act as a barrier and potentially reverse the price if the bullish momentum isn’t strong enough. After reaching the breakout line, the price may pull back to consolidate strength before breaking through, leading it toward our price target of 147.217. On the 2-hour chart, the price is trading above all moving averages, and the RSI is currently at 65.12. On the other hand, if the price breaks through the support at 142.44, we expect it could decline further, potentially reaching 139.57.
Long
by SpicyPips
1
BTC ANALYSIS🔮 #BTC Analysis 💰💰 As we saw that there was a very bullish move in #BTC. Now we expect a correction in #BTC. Also there is a bearish divergence in RSI. We will see a correction first after that we it will again continue to rise. 🔖 Current Price: $65700 ⏳ Target Price: $62700-61450 ⁉️ What to do? - We have marked some crucial levels in the chart. We can trade according to the chart and make some profits in #BTC. Keep your eyes on the chart, observe trading volume and stay accustom to market moves.🚀💸 #BTC #Cryptocurrency #Correction #DYOR
Short
by ZEUS_Market_Alerts
1
Bullish Stocks, But Watch Pullbacks and Gaps On SP500The stock market has been very bullish over the last two weeks, with strong gains this week following China's policy actions to support their economy. This has had a positive impact on stocks globally, and it’s no surprise to see the S&P 500 trading higher. Looking at the December futures contract, from an Elliott Wave perspective, we can clearly see a five-wave movement up from the September 9th low. While this bullish momentum continues, it’s important to be cautious as we may be nearing potential resistance in this fifth wave, around the 5,820 to 5,880 area. I think that pullbacks could occur in the next few days, especially if USD stays up with yields. If we do see a correction, the key levels to watch would be the previous swing supports, with the first at 5,754 followed by 5,674. These levels also correspond to regions of open gaps on the cash market, and typically when such gaps are filled, the market can resume its primary trend, which is up. So, if an ABC drop occurs into one of these gaps, it could present an opportunity to rejoin the uptrend in the stock market.
CBOE:SPX
by ew-forecast
Gold Overbought Daily, Weekly, Monthly: But Does it Matter?Gold Talking Points: Gold bulls have continued to push an impressive trend throughout 2024 and there was another extension of that this morning with another fresh all-time-high. At this point chasing fresh breakouts in gold can be seen as challenging given that it’s now showing overbought conditions on the daily, weekly and monthly charts. But – that doesn’t mean that price has to turn. Instead, the focus can shift to pullbacks of higher-low support, like what had showed around FOMC last week. It’s been an astounding rally in gold so far in 2024 and that’s continued through another week, with the metal getting another push-higher this morning on the back of dovish Fed comments from Neel Kashkari and Austan Goolsbee. The big USD driver for this week is unveiled on Friday with the most recent release of Core PCE, often considered to be ‘the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.’ Until then, however, there’s numerous iterations of Fed-speak, including a speech from Chair Powell on Thursday morning. Markets have high expectations for more dovish-speak as rate expectations are currently showing a 76.5% probability of at least 75 bps more in cuts by the end of the year, standing against a current 23.5% probability of 50 bps, which is what the Fed’s projections pointed to last Wednesday. In gold, that FOMC rate decision delivered the last pullback as prices softened down to the $2550 zone of support. That didn’t last for long, however, as bulls pounced and continued to drive through last week’s close and this week’s open, setting another fresh all-time-high. Gold Bigger Picture: Overbought Daily, Weekly, Monthly At this point chasing gold-higher on breakouts can be a challenge. There’s been a proclivity for bulls to soften the drive on tests of resistance or at fresh highs, thereby leading to the build of a rising wedge pattern. And there’s also the matter of overbought dynamics to consider as gold is currently showing overbought readings on all of the daily, weekly and monthly chart. That does not mean that gold has to turn, however. The monthly overbought read started way back in April and, of course, gold has continued to drive since then. The weekly overbought reading re-appeared in early-September, just as bulls were gearing up for another breakout. And the daily overbought reading showed last Friday, and this is the first time that’s happened since April. That’s when gold began to stall and range which largely held through the Q2 close and the Q3 open. So, overbought doesn’t mean that this is ready for reversal. It does, however, highlight the challenge of chasing and instead points to pullback potential such as the scenario I was talking about ahead of the FOMC last Wednesday. On the below chart, I’ve highlighted the two prior episodes in 2024 when daily RSI pushed into overbought territory. Gold Shorter-Term Strategy I had shared a zone on twitter this morning that was highlighting short-term resistance around the 2625 level. Bulls breached that on the way to fresh highs and it’s now back in the picture as short-term support, which is confluent with the trendline taken from the higher-low produced after the FOMC pullback last week. This is also what I’m considering as support side of a rising wedge formation, which is often approached with aim of bearish reversals or pullbacks in bullish trends. I’m more interested in pullbacks at this point and that highlights the 2619 swing of prior resistance as a possible spot of support. Below that I have another prior swing of resistance-turned-support at 2614. If that can’t hold, the door is open to a 2600 re-test which is what held the highs just after the FOMC statement release last Wednesday. When bulls drove price above that level, the pullback showing after couldn’t even get down to 2600, holding at 2602 and this sets up a support zone of note for retracement scenarios this week. --- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
WHSELFINVEST:GOLDLong
by WHSelfInvest
Star Health: Trendline Breakout Signals Bullish ReversalStar Health is showing promising signs for long-term holding. The chart shows a clear downward sloping trendline that has been respected for a considerable period. Recently, the price has broken above this trendline, indicating potential trend reversal from bearish to bullish. The immediate swing high at ₹675 is a crucial level to watch. This level may act as resistance in the short term. If the price manages to break above this swing high, it could open the door for a move towards the supply zone. However, if the price faces rejection at this level, a pullback could occur. The chart suggests a potential scenario where the price could retrace after testing the swing high at ₹675. This retracement could provide a good opportunity for accumulation if the price finds support at lower levels, such as the ₹560-580 zone. There is a significant increase in volume during the breakout, which adds strength to the bullish case. Key support levels to watch include the ₹560-580 zone, where the price previously found support after the breakout There is a marked supply zone between approximately ₹770 and ₹820. where sellers have previously stepped in, leading to price declines. If the price approaches this zone again, it may face significant resistance. Consider entering a position if the price holds above ₹675 or on a pullback to the ₹560-580 zone. Accumulating during pullbacks with proper risk management could be a prudent strategy. Be cautious of potential reversals or rejections at the ₹675 swing high or within the supply zone. This is not a Buy Recommendation, just an idea. Please give a boost and comment if you like my analysis and feel free to share with others. Disclaimer: I am not a Sebi Registered Analyst, and the views expressed are of my own and for educational purpose only, Make sure you consult your financial advisor before investing, as I wont be Responsible for any losses incurred.
NSE:STARHEALTHLong
by Kaushik_Karnale
XRPUSDT potentially good moment to reenter on the correctionXRPUSD has recently seen an upward impulse move but is now pulling back after encountering resistance. The price has retraced roughly one-third of the previous bullish advance, indicating some selling pressure, yet the overall trend remains intact within an ascending channel. A complex pullback has formed near the resistance zone. The breakout and close above the critical 0.500 level signal growing momentum in the market. This could suggest a potential accumulation phase, as buyers might be waiting for a more attractive entry point. The psychological level of 0.500 is expected to offer strong support. If this level holds, it could provide an opportunity for buyers to re-enter the market, potentially triggering another upward leg. The outlook remains cautiously optimistic, as long as the price stays above this crucial support. The target is the resistance zone around 0.6160
COINBASE:XRPUSDLong
by RTED_Investing
EURUSD in a potential Pullback Continuation ScenarioAfter breaking out of the consolidation zone, the market is now approaching the next significant resistance level. EURUSD has closed above the critical level of 1.1000 on the daily timeframe, and the market is currently pulling back to this level. With high-impact news on the horizon, we can anticipate an increase in market volatility today. Given the prevailing bullish trend, the market can experience a rejection in the form of a long-tailed bar below this psychological level before continuing the upward movement. The goal is the resistance level at 1.10715
Long
by RTED_Investing
VELO RSI looks beautiful VELO looks beautiful on all higher time frames. I especially like 3D RSI, which is setting up nicely, but needs to stay above 50 level. 12H and D1 look great as well...both RSI position and market structure. I first want to see what happens when price breaks above the previous highs marked with the blue horizontal line. Ideally I would like to long the restes of the broken level and a retest of 12H 200 EMA and SMA. Another option would be to simply go in with a starter position once the level breaks. I would preferer option 1. Let see what we get Happy trading
Long
by Retrace_all_gains
Bitcoin's Shocking Pullback: A Hidden Opportunity for Major GainMade new High inside of Weekly and Daily and now broke back inside of old high and making a new series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows. This is not a longterm of the current picture of BTC. Major Trend is Bullish but we could experience some pull back in the market where Larger amounts of money can now enter again. Trend Analysis: Down Trending Market: The market continues to show a downtrend, with lower highs and lower lows. New Highs and Lows: The chart highlights a recent new high within the weekly and daily range, followed by a breakdown back inside the old high, indicating a new series of lower highs and lower lows. Key Insights: The annotation mentions that this is not a long-term picture of Bitcoin (BTC). The major trend is bullish, but the market is currently experiencing a pullback. This pullback could be an opportunity for larger amounts of money to re-enter the market. Key Levels: New Daily High: Marked at 73,929. 4HR LQZ / TP 1 / Reversal: Marked at 70,229. 1HR LQZ / TP 1 / Reversal: Marked at 53,606. 4HR LQZ / TP 2 / Reversal: Marked at 48,308. Daily LQZ: Marked at 38,398. Chart Patterns: Yellow Trend Lines: Show the descending channel the price is following, reinforcing the downtrend. Labels: Indicate specific market conditions and key points like "Down Trending Market" and the breakdown of the new high inside weekly and daily ranges. Current Price: Current Price Level: Shown as 60,585 with a decrease (-0.14%). This enhanced analysis provides a more comprehensive view, indicating both the current downtrend and the potential for a bullish re-entry. The annotations also clarify that while the immediate trend is bearish, the overall long-term trend for Bitcoin remains bullish.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Adlercon333
TSLA: Time to React? (D&H charts).As we warned in our last study, resistance at 265 was extremely dangerous, and prevented the uptrend from persisting. In addition, TSLA's price lost critical support levels, which reversed the trend in the short term, materializing the pullback on the daily chart that I mentioned in my last public study here on Tradingview, the link to which is below this post. Now, TSLA's price is trying to react around its support level near the open gap at 213.23. If TSLA fails to materialize a bullish reversal at this support area, we can expect more bearish continuation, and the next target would be 205.30. So the timing is critical, and it all depends on how TSLA closes this week. For more detailed technical analyses and insights like this, be sure to follow my account. Your support helps me continue providing valuable content to help you make informed trading decisions. Remember, real trading is reactive, not predictive, so let's stay focused on the key points described above and only trade when there is confirmation. “To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate.” — Jesse Lauriston Livermore All the best, Nathan.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Nathan_The_Finance_Hydra