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Pullback

Last Down Week for Stocks. Last Up Week for the Dollar.Traders, The dollar is now starting 12 weeks of green. You can see that today it has touched the top of its channel and that has acted as resistance. Additionally, the RSI shows that the dollar strength is now over-extended. I smell a pullback coming very soon. Possibly before the weekend. The SPY (which correlates in part with other major indexes) has this Head and Shoulders pattern in play. Target down is 410. But as I questioned in one of my last videos, is it possible that the target down will be cut short - held up by the 200-day sma which closely correlates with the bottom of my channel? This will act as a huge area of confluence and give the SPY good support. It is possible that the SPY is held up from falling further at this point and this makes sense when looking for clues from our dollar chart. A fall in the dollar would likely correlate to a bounce in stocks. I believe it is reasonable to conclude that stocks will end their pullback soon and we can expect a bounce upward at either the channel bottom OR our target down of 410. Though, I am not sure that the SPY will maintain its posture within the ascending channel, I do not believe this is the end of our upward movement and blow-off top in the stock market ....YET. Best, Stew
TVC:DXY
by stewdamus
BTCUSDT Looking Bearish in the Short TermMultiple indicators have signaled bear as well as overbought conditions for Bitcoin on the 15m chart. This makes sense because Bitcoin has just experienced a pump within a short period of time. Usually, this means a retracement will follow as market participants will be compelled to take profits which means selling in the shorter term, a potential dip may be an opportunity to buy as we are likely to go higher in the longer term. All TradingView ideas are meant to be for educational purposes only.
Short
by AutomatedTradingAlgorithms
4
🟥 Divergence on NAS vs Stocks above 200D - cautionI have spoken about this since begining of the year but now it materializes nicely. The market has never survived narrow niche rallies and this has never been the characteristic of a bull market. As you see the Nasdaq Composite has started to pull as the percent of stocks above their respective 200 D Moving average is well below 40%. To be confident that we are really oversold I would like to see the TVC:VIX go to above 25 on this pullback. Caution is advised.
NASDAQ:IXICShort
by TintinTrading
HPAL - At Support - Pullback TradeI identified this stock as a probable candidate for a breakout trade (Refer to the previous post linked here) And we did see a breakout and run up to 540-550 levels. Now the stock has come back to the breakout level, the previous resistance area which now would serve as a support area( 455-463) and this week a hammer-like candle is also formed in the support area, portraying a good opportunity for a pullback trade. The structure of the stock is still very positive and this could be a great risk to reward swing to positional trade. The initial target is recent highs i.e. 540-550 and the further target is around 600 levels. Close below 450 would negate the trade.
NSE:HPALLong
by manuagarwal21
2
$US500 SP500 forecast.Here's what I'm looking at. I still think $4100 is on the table for a bottom. Reason being, there's multiple levels of confluence there. 1) If you take the AVWAP from the Jan 2022 highs, it comes to around $4100 2) It's a horizontal level 3) It's roughly the measured objective of the Head and Shoulders break down 4) It's also coming in around the 0.618 fib level. Of course there will be levels of support along the way, one being the current $4260 area. This $4260 area is also a confluence of support with 1) It's a horizontal level on the weekly 2) The 200EMA on the Daily chart 3) The AVWAP from the recent March 2023 lows. Either we see a bounce and recovery from here ($4260 area) or if we break lower we'll see 4100. For now, I still think $4100 may be the low for this correction.
PEPPERSTONE:US500
by HaseebKhan_90
#CHFJPY bullish continuation*please be sure to remember that today we have FOMC meeting and they are going to announce funds rate and their policies for coming meetings with a high possibility of a lot of movement in all pairs. As you can see in the chart price broke above short-term bearish trendline with strong 4H time frame Marubozu like candlestick which revels buyers strength. This bearish move since the completion of 4H time frame candle can be interpreted as pullback to test the broken trendline and its possible to be looking to buy in this area.
Long
by mohemati
Dollar Bulls May Win!Traders, We have been monitoring the U.S. dollar for years now. It is, by far, one of the most significant variables in monitoring what price action may do elsewhere. Almost everything here in the U.S. hinges upon it and its ripple impact is, without a doubt, global. Crypto most certainly is not excluded. I was early to spot this Head and Shoulders pattern. It was in October of last year that I think I first speculated this ominous pattern may be forming on our DXY chart. But I was not really clear then whether or not it would truly form and furthermore, if it would play out. Fast forward to today. I am still not clear. However, there are several clues that may indicate that this H&S pattern will become invalidated. Of course, the number one clue is the ever-increasing strength of the dollar. Should it beat that 105.6 level I have drawn, I don't believe the pattern remains valid. Comment below if you disagree. Ensure to comment as to why you disagree in order that we can all learn together. Another reason I have doubted the pattern is that dip below our neckline in mid-August. On the daily, the neckline was broken. But then we quickly reversed. On the weekly chart, the break was never confirmed with a second candle opening and closing below the neckline. Therefore, I kept the pattern present on my chart and continued to monitor. But it looks as though we are now approaching decision time. And in my mind, if my level of 105.6 is absorbed and confirmed, I can safely remove the pattern from the chart and cease tracking. This would spell bad news for the market. As I have discussed many times previously, as stronger dollar generally weighs down the U.S. stock market, especially when the VIX plays along with it and increases the measurement of fear/panic. As of today, the VIX is at an all time two-year low. This sends sort of a mixed signal to traders. I like to think of it as a neutralizing factor. When the dollar is up but the VIX is moving down, generally the market tends to move sideways. So, we are relatively safe right now. However, should that fear index spike, expect a significant pullback to occur in the U.S. stock market, especially if that dollar beats my level. Stay tuned as I continue to track these scenarios. Best, Stew
TVC:DXYLong
by stewdamus
AUDUSD - Two ways one outcome! Hello traders, investors and community. Today i will take a bullish look on AUDUSD and what the chart is showing me, the absolute high probability signs for some bullish outcomes. On my chart you see the daily price action of AUDUSD. AUDUSD is just about to form a massive bottom formation with an descending triangle about to complete. I detected it and it is marked with the red trendlines, price is still remaining in the triangle. It is for sure that it will break out and form some bullish movement, the question is when it will complete. In my chart you can see that price is touching the upper trendline of the triangle, it is possible that we break out of the channel the next time otherwise price can still remain in the triangle and touch the lower trendline before it breaks out. Also AUDUSD had some good volume, (over average), in the last bull-wave which you see in the chart. There is a huge support zone at 0.64 - 0.69, that if we come back to this level there is a high probability for some good support in this area. Also you see this huge bullish dragonfly doji formed on the 3th of january, this shows how storng and important that support level is. When we break out of the triangle without coming back again! There is a target projection which you see in my chart. This target will be intact when we break out and confirm the triangle. When you see the light blue striped trendline where the target remains you can see that it is EXACTLY the point of resistance of the previous bear moves till we reached the bottom. You can see it marked with the dark blue square. If we remain in the triangle and breakout later the target will be a different price but the same length! The RSI shows me that we had some oversold condition before the two last bull moves began, it can come back to the trendline and form a bullish divergence. I am expacting this to happen either when we break out of the triangle now or when we remain in the triangle and confirm the lower trendline. This i only educational information and should not be used to take action in the markets! Peace and love to everybody!
Long
by VincePrince
8
GBP/USD Long Trade: Seizing Opportunity with Breakout and PullbaTrade Rationale: In this trade, we are eyeing a potentially lucrative opportunity on the GBP/USD currency pair. Our strategy revolves around a well-defined technical setup that combines a breakout from a key demand zone with the anticipation of a significant pullback. Entry Reasoning: The foundation of this trade lies in our analysis of the chart, where we've identified a demand zone below the current price level. Demand zones often act as strong support areas, indicating potential buying interest in the market. We are poised to enter this trade if the GBP/USD chart breaks convincingly above this demand zone. Pullback Potential: Our analysis suggests that once the breakout occurs, we can anticipate a substantial pullback in the price. This pullback offers us a favorable entry point, allowing us to enter the trade at a relatively lower price compared to the breakout point. Support Turned Resistance: Additionally, our trade strategy relies on the concept of support turning into resistance. The previous support level that we anticipate breaking will likely act as a new support level once breached, offering us a solid foundation for this long trade. Risk Management: To safeguard our trading capital, we have implemented a strict risk management plan. We are only risking 1% of our trading capital on this trade, ensuring that any potential losses remain within a manageable range. Conclusion: In summary, our GBP/USD long trade is based on a well-thought-out technical analysis that combines the breakout from a demand zone, a pullback strategy, and the support-turned-resistance principle. By adhering to our risk management strategy, we aim to maximize the potential for profit while minimizing risk exposure. As with all trading endeavors, there are inherent risks, and no trade is guaranteed to be profitable. It's essential to monitor the trade, adapt to changing market conditions if necessary, and always be prepared to cut losses according to our predetermined stop loss level. Good luck with the trade!
Long
by Ju5ke