AUDJPY Offering Short EntryThe AUDJPY has setup nicely for a pullback entry short into an established bear trend. This must be taken at reduced risk for the reasons mentioned below.
Monthly - Price is trading inside the annual levels of 2017 but has been in a bear trend since the start of 2018.
Weekly - Price is trading below the 200SMA and the 50SMA.
Daily - Price is trading below the 200SMA and the 50SMA.
Despite price still trading inside the 2017 level, we have alignment between the weekly and daily timeframes. Price has now also pulled back to a key level of support-turned-resistance and formed a long-wicked indecision candle which is a setup we look for when taking pullback trades.
Given that price is inside the 2017 annual levels and that this is an entry using a pullback, the risk must be reduced. Full allocation for us at Sublime Trading is 2% per trade so we have allocated a much smaller risk for this currency pair considering the setup.
We now want to see price bounce to the downside, break and close below the March low ideally in the form of a bear flag, and move towards the round number 80. We then want to see price break and close below 80 and weaken further towards 70 and beyond in the same linear trend structure. This will then offer ample opportunities to compound strategically into this initial position.
Trading PBs has its advantages and challenges. The advantage is, of course, more profit compared to entering in on a breakout. The challenge is dealing with the fact that price may trigger us into the trade but may then continue against us as price forms a reversal. Price may also trigger us in and then move into consolidation where we must then apply patience and wait for the breakout.
We must never second guess the outcome of a trade. Each time our edge appears, we must place a trade without hesitation and with the right risk allocated to it. What ever happens next is beyond our control.
Remember, a good trade is one where we follow our trading plan REGARDLESS of the outcome.
Sublime Trading
Pullbacktrade
EURUSD - Possible Scenario - SELLEURUSD has reached a major resistance level at 1.24382 price level. it had consolidated for almost 2 days showing countless rejections when price tried to go bullish then price had dropped down to the 1.23313 support price level. Price had started to go bearish however it went back up for a retest , I'm hoping that price would go down towards the 1.22284 Support level!
BTC/USD Pulling Back - Chance to rebuy lowerRising wedge is a reversal (bearish) pattern. If confirmed, it will give us new opportunity to rebuy BTC at lower, more attractive prices.
As I'm writing this, BTC/USDT is touching the lower line of the wedge, but if we look at the RSI and the volume, we can see that it's more likely that the rising wedge will be broken down. Another factor is that this rising wedge appears right at the main downtrend resistance red line (see my previous BTC chart linked below for a bigger picture), which indicates this rally is losing steam, and a pullback is necessary in order to start a new, stronger rally upwards, which will have better chances of breaking the main downtrend line mentioned above.
Targets:
1. 10223 (0.382 Fib retracement line)
2. 9859 (0.236 Fib retracement line)
Wait for a confirmation (breaking down of the lower line of the wedge and closing below it) before starting the trade.
This pattern will be invalidated if the price pushes above 11230 without going below the wedge (though highly unlikely).
USDWTI (Oil)First we got a pretty good resistance with a double top, which means we have a possible 2618 trade:
- double top
- measure impulse
- wait for retracement at 0.618
Double top + 0.618 = 2618 technique
I measured bearish impulse so I could confirm areas with some Support & Resistance and we can see how each pattern or consolidation was formed around those areas, even fibonacci retracements respect those areas.
Also used some Support & Resistance on MACD to confirm divergence.
BAT PATTERN
-Left Leg
At first there's an ABCs formation right at where bearish Bat Pattern began, we can see how it went bearish forming an Elliott Impulse with 5 clear points and each consolidation that was formed respected fibonacci retracements.
-Right Leg
After an Elliott Impulse there's always some type of consolidation, which is exactly what we got with that double floor at the bottom, right after that retest it formed a pullback that I measured with Trend-Based Fib Extension, we can se how 1.618 - 1.414 area is exactly around bearish area.
We got 0.886 -0.786 area from Bat Pattern, 1.618 - 1.414 area from Trend-Based Fib Extension and 0.618 from 2618 technique all at the same area!!!
Good Trading. -1h Chart
EURNZD 4H Trade Setup-30m Timing-5m Entry PointThese 3 charts helps us understand how to use a 4H chart to find a trade, how to use a 30 m chart to find the market timing as not to enter too early into the trade, and the 5m chart to find the best entry point to give us the best risk to reward entry.
Macd helps us to find direction and reversal points from the Macd being over sold/bought from the stochastic 20/80 blue dotted level lines. The Macd red 0 level line helps to know trend bias (price above red 0 level possible bullish bias)
Take profit levels will be covered in an update.
Any question you have on the dual macd/stochastic send me a PM and I will be glad to help you setup this indicator.
BF UTILITIES Short term Positional CallBf Utilities Limited NSE: BFUTLITIE
Short term Technical Trading Call.
CMP: 506, Closing Basis SL: 484.9, Targets: 525 534
Technicals:
* Trend line breakout
* Channel Break out
* Pull back trading
* Fibonacci level Breakout
* Volume Breakout
* Short consolidation breakout
BITCOIN - Have you MISSED IT?Have You Missed It?
At the beginning of 2017 if you asked your neighbor what Bitcoin was, chances are they would have given you a blank stare.
Today things are much different.
Bitcoin passed the mind-boggling price of $10,000 per coin...
And people are asking themselves if they have missed it.
The answer is a resounding no.
In fact investors believe Bitcoin could jump another 1,000% in 2018 turning every $10,000 coin into $100,000.
Watch for your pullbacks - one of these bottoms will hold as support and then buy with solid bullish reversal patterns - 10000 - 9000 - 8000 - 7000 levels