NZDUSD: New Structure Low, Outside Return, New Structure Low?Hey gang, first of all thank you for all of the great comments on yesterday's youtube video "How Do Know If My Trading Strategy Is Failing" (www.youtube.com) You guys said that you've learned a lot and please continue to let me know exactly what that was in the comments section on Youtube.
Today I've got bearish cypher patterns on both EURJPY and EURAUD on my radar, but felt like sharing a structure based trade with you this Friday to mix things up. Similar to the AUDUSD (but not the same), the Kiwi has just broken and closed below a level of structure, with a much more significant level resting below. I like to say that structure acts like a magnet so I'm predicting that the market will be pulled towards that lower level. Therefore I'll be looking for reasons to short the Kiwi this morning in the Live Room as the market creates a pullback.
Obviously there;s no way to tell now if I'll actually get involved in the trade or not, but my eyes will be glued to this one on the lower timeframes. Wishing all of you a great weekend and do me a favor, if you liked the video above, make sure you subscribe to my channel. I'd like to inspire as many traders as possible so tell your trading buddies to check it out!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos: www.youtube.com
Pullbacktrade
EURUSD: Looking For Another Buying Opportunity I couldn’t have asked for a better start to this trading week. Unlike last week everything I’ve touched has turned to gold giving me a very nice cushion going into my first real day of active trading. There is a lot on my radar today including the EURJPY, USDJPY, USDCAD, NZDUSD & EURAUD, but I wanted to share my EURUSD idea with you guys since we’ve been tracking this pair a lot as of late (see related charts).
After pulling off massive profits on the big Gartley pattern, the Euro buyers is now giving some relief and I’m looking for an area where they might be interested in purchasing once again. My “A-Kill” zone rests from 1.1015’s-1.0920’s and I’ll be sure to keep a close eye on this pair in the live room looking for opportunities to get long.
I do think we can retest our previous major structure level at 1.12’s but I would be sure to get at least partial profits off at a much safer level like 1.11’s for example.
Here's a link to the blog post i wrote yesterday titled "A Much Needed Easy Day" tradeempowered.com
Also, I’m not sure how many of you use the app Periscope, but I’ll be doing an interview with FXTC Magazine around 4:30pm (Eastern) and they said they were going to stream it live on there. First I’ve heard of the app, but if you’re not doing anything feel free to check it out.
Good luck today traders and remember “Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan!”
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM /
Forex Weekend Review Videos:
www.youtube.com
Divergence, again, on USD/CADAlthough in a healthy uptrend, USDCAD has run into resistance at ~1.3070 which happens to be a price level on the weekly chart that has previously been tested (as support in April 2004 and resistance in March 2009). Price closed below this level on Friday as a high test bar. Coupled with bearish divergence on the Stochastic and RSI indicator a price action behaviour is suggestive of bearish sentiment. Judging by the optimistic Fed outlook to raise interest rates, and positive expectation from the US economy from improving economic data, a stronger US Dollar is likely to continue. The following short setup banks on a technical perspective to take advantage of a sell signal; potentially a temporary run.
entry - below low of high test bar
stop loss - above high of high test bar
target - previous level at ~1.2771
USDCAD: Long at StructureVERY BIG DAY for me today (here's the video link www.youtube.com) and before I call it a night I wanted to share with you one more trade that I recently got involved in. Now I apologize for the short explanation but I'm a little tired after just recording video number 2 tonight, but here's a trade I just sent over to my Syndicate members looking at a bullish trade I just took on USDCAD.
This is a simple structure trade and hopefully my primitive drawing gives you enough info, but one of my main reasons for entry came from watching the reaction of the dollar after this mornings poor Core Retail sales release.
Have a great night gang, I've got a hot meal and a soft couch awaiting me!
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM / Forex Weekend Review Videos:
www.youtube.com
EURAUD: Got the breakout, now Looking for the pullbackAlthough I don’t day trade on Monday’s I have a handful of pairs on my radar for my swing trading portfolio. Multiple patterns on the EURUSD, a few setups on USDJPY, NZDUSD and of course the chart above on EURAUD.
We were watching this pair last week for the bullish breakout and now that we’ve gotten it, the next chance to hop on would be at a pullback. Looking on the hourly we also have a potential bullish bat pattern setting up as well which lines up with what my top down analysis is telling me.
If the buyers want to maintain control over this pair then we shouldn’t see a dip below that 1.48 level as that even handled number would be a cheap price to reinvest.
I’m expecting a busy week in the markets so be careful out there. Lots of news coming out, especially between Tuesday & Wednesday.
Good luck this week traders and if you didn’t get a chance to this weekend, make sure you check out my latest YouTube video talking about market Psychology & why we see the movements that we do.
www.youtube.com
Akil Stokes
Chief Currency Analyst
www.TradeEmpowered.com
Akil@Tradeempowered.com /@AkilStokesRTM / Forex Weekend Review Videos:
GBPAUD 4 HR LONGTEXTBOOK SETUP. PULLBACK TO THE 38.2 FIB WHICH IS IN LINE WITH STRUCTURE LEVEL. AUD IS STILL FUNDAMENTALLY WEAK, THE CURRENCY NEEDS TO GO LOWER TO SPUR GROWTH SO PAIRING IT AGAINST THE POUND IS A HIGH PROBABILITY TRADE BECAUSE THE POUND IS THE 2ND STRONGEST CURRENCY AFTER THE DOLLAR. WE'VE HAD A TWEEZER BOTTOM AND SUPPORT FOLLOWED BY A HAMMER REJECTING OFF THIS LEVEL. FIRST TARGET ON THIS PAIR IS AT 1.9800
AUDUSD: Structure Long with Hidden DivergenceSorry for being quiet this week trading view but I've been running things on the road. Also the markets have been pretty quiet this week so there just hasn't been a lot to share. Today seems to be a little bit better and I wanted to bring a potential buying opportunity on AUDUSD to your attention.
I'm already long this pair from earlier in the week. My position has been doing absolutely nothing but sitting there, but with our recent movement in price action another opportunity has appeared as well. This structure based opportunity can be looked at like a 2618. Price action has come down to previous structure support and held, followed by a HHHC and is now retracing.
The HHHC gives us a bullish rotation and the present retracement is a perfect chance to hop aboard. Also the fact that the RSI is showing us hidden divergence gives me some added confidence and potentially added points for those of you that trade the Combined Technical Scoring System (CTS).
The risk reward looks good on this trade no matter where you look to get long, so the only question left is "How Can I Get Long?" And the answer to that should be simple. What does your trading plan say are your rules for entry on this type of trade? "But Akil, what if I don't have a rule for this in my trading plan?" Well I'm sorry but you shouldn't be taking the trade then.
With structure being at the core of my trading philosophy I'd be looking for targets at resistance & stops below support. Best of luck if you do get involved and until next time. "Plan Your Trade, Trade Your Plan"
Akil Stokes
www.Tradeempowered.com
Daily pullback on USD/CHFThe salient characteristics for entering into a short position on USD/CHF on the 60 minute chart have to do with a pullback in play on the daily timeframe. Price action, on the daily chart, has hit resistance at ~0.9210 and is overextended above the key moving averages. RSI shows bearish divergence. Additionally, price has touched the Fibonacci extension level of 200% of the previous pullback, building an even stronger case for temporary correction in this uptrend.
The key support level, where price could potentially retrace to is at the previous highs just above 0.9100 or lower into the 50 ema below this level if price breaks through.
On the 60 minute chart, the new development of downward price cycles appears convincing to ride on till 0.9100 with a tremendous profit offering of close to four times risk.
Entry = at the low (0.9187)
Stop-loss = above the lower high (as marked on the chart) or conservatively above 0.9210 which is above
resistance
Target = initially, roughly 0.9100, or further below if support broken
Long term forecast on Facebook $FBCould Facebook stock drop to $50??? It might be too early to tell, but if price action doesn't make a new swing high above C leg, then this pattern may have high probably of completing. Bearish divergence on the RSI extending from July 13'. A GrandSuper Cycle wave 3 confirming the down trend which peaked at price $72.73. $FB is now showing signs of a bullish gartley reversal if price gets down to 50 bucks. Our Potentinal reversal kill zone is at price $51.21 measured from C to B leg at the 1.27 fib extension, expanding to price $49.95 measured from X to A 78.6 fib retracement.
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