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Gold Goes ATH Again, How to Work Pullbacks in Overbought MarketsGold Talking Points The massive move in gold has continued to yet another fresh ATH this morning, even with the US Dollar continue its own bullish jump. Trying to chase an overbought market like gold can feel like trying to jump on a rocket that’s already left the Earth, but that doesn’t mean that traders have the singular choice of fading it or avoiding it. There’s the potential for pullbacks such as I’ve been following in these articles over the past few weeks. Gold continues its massive 2024 outing with yet another fresh all-time-high today. This might sound like Groundhog Day, but the yellow metal just continues to impress even with weekly and monthly charts in overbought territory. As I asked a few weeks ago, does that even matter? Well, by the looks of price it does not, at least not at this point. As for explanations behind the move it’s been the Fed and other global central banks pushing towards rate cuts this year that’s propelled the breakout. And even in light of strong US data that, normally, would cause the FOMC to talk up rate hike potential, a hawkish Fed seems nowhere near, and markets are still leaning heavily on the expectation for the bank to cut through next year. Making matters more interesting is the USD backdrop with which the recent trend has run. The USD was weak in Q3 and gold broke out in mid-August and continued to run. The USD has posed a stark turn-around so far in Q4 and still, gold has run higher. At this point there’s no evidence to suggest that the run is finished. But that still doesn’t mean that chasing and hoping is a smart way to work with the move. There’s essentially two ways of working with the long side of an overbought market. One can use breakout strategies, which can be a challenge in and of itself. This opens the possibility of buying highs or selling lows, which can be painful ordeals. It’s not an impossible way to move forward, but traders need to have rigid risk management protocol to institute these types of strategies. Or – traders can wait and try to be patient, using pullbacks on shorter time frames. This still doesn’t guarantee success but at the least, risk can be managed in a more efficient manner by using prevailing price structure and if-then statements. While the move in gold has continued to hasten, there have been pullback setups. There was a setup leading into CPI last week, and another shorter-term after the release of the data point but before the breakout was able to extend. And then this week, there was a test below 2650, buyers holding the line there with a shorter-term higher-low opened the door for another extension of the move. Yesterday saw bulls push all the way up to the prior ATH at 2685, again, leading to a shallow pullback to the first support listed in the article at 2670. And that has since run into yet another fresh higher-high. Gold Fresh Highs – What’s Next? Human psychology has a funny role in markets as it often seems like the crowd gets most bullish at highs or near resistance and most pessimistic at tests of support. But there’s also the inter-play with psychological levels, as the price of 2600.01 can feel much more expensive than just two cents above 2599.99. We saw that play out at the FOMC rate cut last month. Gold tested above 2600 after news of the cut made its way through markets, but that was brief and short-lived as a fast pullback soon developed. The pullback from that tested below a minor psychological level at 2550, with bulls soon returning to push price back above 2600. At this point, we’ve seen continued reticence inside of 2700 so it seems as though bulls are shying away from a test from that price so far. But, if we do see that trade, that could be an open door for buyers to take profits, which can open the door for the next pullback. In that scenario, the prior ATH at 2685 becomes a point of interest for higher-lows. If that doesn’t hold and profit taking sets in a bit more, 2675 or 2667 become of interest. And technically, we could even see a pullback drive back down to 2650 while keeping the door open for higher-highs and lows on the daily chart. --- written by James Stanley, Senior Strategist
WHSELFINVEST:GOLDLong
by WHSelfInvest
MercadoLibre (MELI): A Powerhouse in Latin America! MELI is solidifying its position as a dominant player in the e-commerce and fintech markets across Latin America. With Argentina’s economic surge and aggressive expansion in Brazil and Mexico, MELI is poised for significant growth. 📈 Key Highlights: Economic Recovery in Argentina driving e-commerce activity. Expansion into logistics and food delivery diversifying revenue streams. Growing adoption of Mercado Pago enhances its financial ecosystem. While I see strong fundamentals supporting a buy rating, a 5% drop could offer a better entry point. My fair price estimate is $2,709, based on a 5 year DCF analysis. Let's keep an eye on the support levels around $1,936 and $1,824. #MELI #MercadoLibre #Investing #StockMarket #Ecommerce #Fintech #LatinAmerica #GrowthStocks #InvestmentOpportunities #Stocktobuy #Pullback
NASDAQ:MELILong
by InvestOhTrader
LOOKING FOWARD FOR THIS M15 SETUP 1.Price already enter a very strong demand zone I think here sellers will find all the buyers they have been looking for (LOL) remember if you are selling 100 iPhones you will need 100 buyers it's that simple. 2. Price have wiped out lot of liquidity, so why will price keep going down to sweep that low in H4 I think there's no need for that therefore from this point we should see the start of a complex pullback to a supply zone in H4. 3. This figure you see here in M15 that will be my confirmation to start buying, Fibonacci is showing our M15 trading range (last high, last low) if this doesn't happen it means is going deeper into our H4 demand zone, that's why I always opt for confirmation in lower time frame before executing any orders. WILL KEEP YOU GUYS UPDATED!!
Long
by RentCash
3
"All-Time Highs" Finally! New Channel Unlocked ! what's next? Finally, we are at "All-Time Highs" and have unlocked a New Channel. What will happen next? Let’s just let the price follow its course. Last week, we correctly predicted the price movement by creating an "N3" and landing in the order block as support to gain upward momentum with the recent movements the price has made, we have unlocked a new upward channel in which we will be monitoring the price movement in the coming weeks (Yellow Channel). Here, we only need to focus on two things: 1. We can see that the last candle is an "Inside Candle." An inside bar can be bullish or bearish, depending on its context within price action. If it forms within a downtrend, it can be considered bearish, indicating a possible continuation. If it forms within an uptrend, it can be considered bullish, suggesting a possible continuation of the uptrend. (Look up this important candlestick pattern on Google.) In this case, the last two candles were bearish, so we might consider that the market could either drop or bounce again in our order block to continue the uptrend. This is the scenario I will be expecting if we have a bearish market on Monday. Now, if the price falls to the order block zone, notice how it will also respect the support of the yellow channel. This could mark the beginning of a bullish sequence. 2. Its Simple, the price stays within the yellow channel and follows an upward and orderly sequence. Thank you for supporting my analysis, and be very cautious when we are at all-time highs. The price can be highly unpredictable, so always make sure to mark your channels and consider institutional movements of supply and demand. Best regards.
AMEX:SPYLong
by RocketMike111
Broadcom - Just be careful...NASDAQ:AVGO is quite overextended and retesting resistance so you have to be careful. Broadcom is rallying. This is a pretty obvious fact, considering that Broadcom is up roughly +330% over the past 1.5 years. Eventually we will see a correction, the only question is when and where. Currently, Broadcom is retesting a resistance trendline which has been pushing price lower for over a decade. Maybe this is a good area to close partials and monitor price closely. Levels to watch: $1.840, $1.140 Keep your long term vision, Philip - BasicTrading
NASDAQ:AVGOShort
by basictradingtv
3
GE is GEAerospace a buy 5% below its ATH? - LONGGE is now priced at 5% below its recent ATH. The daily chart shows it to be on a VWAP breakout over two standard deviations above the mean anchored VWAP originating in 2 and a half years ago. Price has dipped and pulled back to the midline of the Bollinger Bands and buying volatility is fading as can be seen on the indicators. I see this as a safe point to add to my GE long positions of shares and call options. Having trimmed some of those positions 4 weeks ago, I will add the same amount back in along with 20% extra. When earnings are upcoming in August I will again look for a pivot high from which to trim again.
NYSE:GE
by AwesomeAvani
Pullback Trade in Global Health Ltd (MEDANTA)Stock Analysis Global Health Ltd (MEDANTA) is forming a double bottom pattern. This setup offers a very favorable risk to reward ratio. Trading Strategy Entry Point: Look for a breakout above the 1500 level. Target and Stop Loss: Levels are plotted on the chart for guidance. Stop Loss: Set your stop loss as indicated on the chart. Target: Follow the target level for potential gains. This pullback trade setup looks promising. Monitor the breakout and trade accordingly!
NSE:MEDANTALong
by We_Learn_Investing
LCID's vwap bounced after pullback LONGLCID trended up 40% from late June and then over 2-3 days completed a standard Fib 0.5 retracement before bouncing off a longterm anchored mean VWAP and reversing. The reversal is supported by the two time frame RSI indicator showing the lower TF RSI crossing above the higher TF RSI and both of them approaching the 50 level. The zero lag MACD shows the lines crossed under the histogram and are now approaching the horizontal zero line. The relative rigor indicator shows a line cross while the values were negative and now approach to the horizontal zero line in parallel. Overall I conclude that LCID is set up for a long entry.
NASDAQ:LCIDLong
by AwesomeAvani
Pendle and the missing Fib - potential for a 30% correctionI like Fibs. Especially in crypto. Wherever I see a well-defined and significant run up or run down in the historic price action I draw some basic extension Fibs (yes, sometimes upside down as well - I don't care...). Then I check whether these Fibs have historically been, and are being, acknowledged. If so, then that set of Fibs is what I use for trading. As I need some historic price action to feel comfortable, I'm not particularly interested in new crypto's and, as usual, I made it to Pendle well and truly late for the party (little green arrow shows where I finally got in). But what saw I liked. Pendle responds really well to one particular set of Fibs that are the upside down extension Fibs of the original run down from late-2021 to mid-2022 (see weekly linked chart of Pendle's full price history below). All the Fibs from this set that the price action has encountered during its meteoric rise have been properly acknowledged - except for one... After duly acknowledging the 1, the 1.618, and the 2.618 fibs (white circles), the Pendle price action completely ignored the 4.236 fib in late March (orange circle)! This took me by surprise as I clocked out and cashed in my chips at that level (red arrows). Damn! Needless to say, the next fib on the list, i.e. the 6.857 fib, is where the price stopped. Now, you can call me superstitious, but I believe that there's NO WAY that Pendle can keep going up without first coming down. :) Bitcoin is still on a sideways wobble and I'm expecting it to correct just that little bit more before the deck is cleared for a further run up. If so, then I expect this to be the perfect opportunity for Pendle to do what it is supposed to do and come down to recognise the 4.236 fib in this set! A proper acknowledgement would be a spike down and a weekly (or at least a clear daily) close on or near this fib level.
CRYPTO:PENDLEUSD
by Fractaleer
1
BTC UPDATE !After a pullback to the descending trendline of the symmetrical triangle, we can either: 1. Expect a continuation of the uptrend: Open a long position after breaking the $73,200 resistance level. Target the $80,000 level. 2. Consider the possibility of a false breakout: The bulls might be accumulating liquidity before a move down. Enter a short position in the $69,240 zone (high-risk). Target the first support level at $66,500. Target the second support level at $63,800 if the ascending trendline breaks. Important factors to consider: Market sentiment and news Volume and price action Support and resistance levels Overall market conditions Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and analysis before making any trading decisions.
by Crypto-Oracle1
MRVL has a melt-down trader reaction to mediocre earnings LONGMRVL on the 2H chart had been in a trend up since February 29th when it broke out of the high volume area of the profile in a pre-earnings run . Earnings were reported and MRVL more or less matched the analyst's forecasts. Price sold-off in the aftermath of trader disappointment. I held a large position of both shares and options but sold off half of the positions two days ago to capture some profits. I see MRVL as still above VWAP and so in buying territory and now at a price level supported by the first upper anchored VWAP line as well as the upper boundary of the high volume area. It is a strong stock which I do not believe will make a full Fibonacci retracement. I will now add back into my position half of what I sold a few days ago. and expect a bullish continuation. On a lower time frame, I have guidance from the inside bars that price is printing in the after hours. When regular trading arrives on Friday, I will buy call options for mid-April striking $85 (OTM).
NASDAQ:MRVLLong
by AwesomeAvani
SRZN great trend up this year then pullback can be bought LONGSRZN ona 30 minute chart is on a consistent trend up for three weeks with some minor normal corrections while underway. Now is one of those pullbacks waiting for an entry. Price is getting support from the first upper VWAP bandline confluent with the lower ascending support line of the megaphone pattern. A megaphone pattern documents increasing volatility in the price action. Volatility is profitable in trading the swings as a swing trade or even intraday. I will take a long trade here targeting the top of the pattern or about going from 12 to 15 being 25% upside.
NASDAQ:SRZNLong
by AwesomeAvani
EURCAD I Potential intraday short to 50% fib of impulse candle Welcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments! ** EURCAD Analysis - Listen to video! We recommend that you keep this pair on your watchlist and enter when the entry criteria of your strategy is met. Please support this idea with a LIKE and COMMENT if you find it useful and Click "Follow" on our profile if you'd like these trade ideas delivered straight to your email in the future. Thanks for your continued support!
Short
by BKTradingAcademy
3
Understanding the Perfect Buy Point in Swing TradingIntroduction Swing trading is a strategy that traders use to capitalize on the "swing" or change in the prices of stocks. It involves holding a stock for a period ranging from a few days to several weeks to profit from price changes or 'swings'. A critical aspect of swing trading is identifying the perfect buy point (PBP), which is the most opportune moment to enter a trade. The Concept of Perfect Buy Point (PBP) The Perfect Buy Point is the price level at which the probability of gain is significantly higher than the risk of loss. It's not just about buying at a low price but buying at the right time when a stock is poised to increase in value. Identifying the Perfect Buy Point To identify a PBP, swing traders often rely on technical analysis, a method of evaluating securities by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as past prices and volume. Technical analysts look for patterns and signals that indicate the momentum is shifting in a way that suggests a move upwards. Key Patterns for PBP The Base Pattern (Point A) The base is a pattern that looks like a consolidation or sideways movement in the price chart. After a decline, the stock begins to round out the bottom, creating a 'U' shape. The PBP occurs when the stock breaks out of this base on the upside with increased volume, signaling the start of a new uptrend. The Pullback Pattern (Point B) A pullback occurs after a stock has advanced and then begins to decline slightly. The PBP in this context is identified when the stock finds support and begins to turn upward again. The support level should be noticeable, and the upward turn should come with a surge in volume, confirming the strength of the trend continuation. Graphic Analysis In the attached graphic, two scenarios (A & B) illustrate potential PBPs. Each shows a different pattern leading up to the PBP, providing a visual representation of the textual description above. Factors to Consider Volume: Look for a significant increase in volume at the PBP. This is an indication that large investors are supporting the move. Price Action: The stock should move through the buy point decisively, not just inch past it. Market Environment: It is also essential to consider the overall market trend. Buying during a market uptrend will increase the chances of a successful trade. Conclusion The perfect buy point is a moment when the balance of evidence suggests a stock is likely to move higher. It is a combination of price action, volume, and pattern recognition. The graphic provided illustrates two classic scenarios for identifying PBPs. By understanding these concepts and combining them with a disciplined trading approach, you can enhance your ability to make profitable swing trades. Remember, no matter how effective a strategy, there's always a risk involved in trading. It's crucial to manage your risk and use stop-loss orders to protect your capital.
GEducation
by JS_TechTrading
As Expected, We Have Our Pullback! Now We Watch This Closely.Traders, As predicted a few weeks ago, altcoins have finally met their downside target of 10-15% (see links to related ideas). But this move down will not confirm further downside unless/until we have confirmation to the underside of our current channel. We have to watch that bottom support closely along with the support on our RSI chart. Should one of them break and the price remain on the underside tomorrow through Friday, this can be further indication that more pullback may occur. This is the healthy correction that I have been waiting patiently for and I am glad to see it. Stay tuned. Stewdamus
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by stewdamus
of Fibonacci RetracementsIn this article, we delve into the intricacies of the Springboard Effect of Fibonacci Retracements , drawing parallels between the trading world and the physics of a springboard. 💜 If you appreciate our guides, support us with boost button 💜 The Springboard Analogy: Imagine a scenario with four different springboards, each with varying degrees of stiffness. Now, drop an identical weight from the same height onto each board. The resulting bounce illustrates the concept of retracement and extension in the context of momentum trading. Barely Any Springs (0.236 Retracement): A bounce at the 0.236 retracement level is seen as a potential trend failure. Buyers may step in, but the bounce is likely weak. Traders shift focus to shorter-term scalping opportunities, targeting other fib levels within the retracement as potential resistance. Few Springs (0.328 Retracement): Here, the bounce on the 0.328% retracement is viewed with caution. While a good bounce may occur, traders remain vigilant about a potential double top, closely monitoring candlestick reactions and utilizing the CCI to identify divergence if momentum falters. Moderate Springs (0.5 Retracement): A bounce at the 0.5 retracement level signifies continued bullish momentum. Buyers are willing to enter at a relatively lower point, maintaining optimism. Targeting the 1.272 extension, traders consider this a bullish signal. Aligning with nearby resistance or front-running the level becomes a strategic move. Lots of Springs (0.618 Retracement): This scenario represents a strong market extension. A bounce at the 38.2% retracement level indicates a plethora of buyers eager to enter the market promptly. This serves as a positive sign, suggesting a robust extension. The target? The 1.618 extension, potentially aligned with a nearby resistance level. The Springboard Effect provides traders with a tangible framework for interpreting retracements and anticipating market extensions. By aligning retracement levels with the stiffness of a springboard, traders gain insights into the potential strength or weakness of a continuation. Whether aiming for robust extensions or preparing for short-term scalps, understanding the nuances of the Springboard Effect adds value to a trader's toolkit. Embrace this strategy, and may your trades be propelled to new heights.
Education
by Vestinda
2
#AUDJPY buying opportunityLet's take a look at the AUDJPY 4-hour timeframe chart and explore the potential buying opportunity in this pair. Price yesterday successfully broke above the short-term bearish channel, aligning with the higher timeframe market structure, which adds to the possibility of the price intending to move higher. Currently, the price is situated at today's Pivot area, which has been providing support since this morning. Additionally, we are above the 1-hour, 30-minute, and 15-minute EMAs (Exponential Moving Averages) of 200, all of which together offer crucial support for the price. Moreover, this recent bearish move can be interpreted as a pullback to the broken channel line. If you've found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Long
by mohemati
6