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Purchasingpower

(Personal Savings vs IXIC) * Purchasing Power of USD (Personal Savings vs IXIC) * Purchasing Power of USD I noticed Personal Savings is very bearish, near 2011 levels. So I multiplied the Purchasing Power of USD by DXY and the IXIC, Composite Index. So it's a more fair comparison of value to the past. Then I adjusted the Decimal Places, so they would be in the same scale, for better comparison. As the arrows point out, when Personal Savings falls below the Andrew's Pitchfork Median, Bear markets start. With Unemployment up, and a dead housing market, this is a bad sign.
FRED:PMSAVEShort
by Nicklaus68
2
Another of my masterpieces on $COPPER this time long time comingI've been meaning to revisit NYSE:HG for a while now and finally have done so; there have been some very interesting visits to black swan territory on this chart and the short term targets after breaking out from another of those green channels could really be quite high (see 20y ago) Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
COMEX:HG1!
by markusrafferty
Where my 40k NKD target came from & why it could go higher laterI've been giving warnings ever since the c0v1d black swan, and especially since the 25k re-test, that Nikkei will grow wings but here's a seeing-is-believing look at where my 40k target comes from For sure it could go higher later and break this key resistance but I would expect at least one more re-test of the navy blue channel beforehand In theory there's no reason why a solid year can't be spent consolidating under that resistance a la 2006 Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
CME:NKD1!
by markusrafferty
YM ran to 40k without any resistance just like I said it wouldI've been saying for some time now that Dow Jones has _no_ relevant resistance till 40k and now here we are If that resistance fades quickly then the next relevant resistance is at 45k and probably most retailers will come up with excuses to short it the whole way there also "But how did you come up with that number?" See for yourself heh this is a very clear cut chart at such high timeframes not too dissimilar to BTC and XAU Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
CBOT_MINI:YM1!
by markusrafferty
BTC half way through the cycle likely heading for at least 140kI've posted a BTC chart here last cycle, showing the weekly and monthly RSI cheat-sheet of where to buy and sell, and I trust it served many well (see the related idea below) The key to anticipating cycle targets ahead of time is the adoption curve, which is actually a straight line on a chart with log on both axes, but without log on the date axis (unsupported by TradingView sadly) one may plot points and retrofit curves into that as shown So far Bitcoin's price action has been oriented around "lay-line" diagonals similar to Gold (see my recent XAU chart) but the main difference is that the sectors on BTCUSD are now beginning to fractionalise owe to diminishing adoption curve returns At the bottom is my custom relative volume indicator which shows relative volume in a Bollinger Band sigma measurement fashion split down into a buy-to-sell ratio depending on the composition of the candle (this is the Bitstamp chart but a summation chart produces the exact same consistent capitulation flags) At some point I may list my RSI candles and RVB histogram as premium indicators here on TradingView since their tried-and-tested benefits are not to be underestimated as can be seen very clearly here The current blue bull cycle channel I called over a year ago before the support was even touched and I was able to do that because I recognised the angle of the resistance last Easter and extrapolated a projection from the last cycle (it's copy pasta of the same channel as last cycle basically) It has not moved since I was also able to call the 70k local top a month ago because I'm well aware that for whatever reason the numbers 7 & 14 are significant on the Bitcoin chart and that's why I also expect that this cycle will likely black swan past 140k briefly up to about 200k similar to how it shot to 20k past 14k seven years ago Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by markusrafferty
XAG gearing up to take over the lead charge of the XAU breakoutThis was supposed to be tomorrow's post but since it looks as if the breakout could be underway as I'm typing I'm going to make it right now I'm annoyingly accurate and can see things in the market that nobody else can so at this point if you aren't following me here you basically hate money Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and TVC:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
OANDA:XAGUSD
by markusrafferty
XAU ready to break out now that most goldbugs have lost interestI haven't posted on TV since Dec 2022 as I've been posting elsewhere (check my profile) but I'll begin duplicating some of my calls here and continue if I gather a decent audience here I'm annoyingly accurate and can see things in the market that nobody else can so at this point if you aren't following me here you basically hate money Some very notable calls in recent years: SPREADEX:NIKKEI and DJ:DJI both to 40k (over 1y in advance) CRYPTOCAP:BTC pico bottom at 15k and recent local top at 70k FX:EURUSD pico bottom & TVC:DXY pico top at 115 TVC:USOIL pico bottom at 68 NASDAQ:SMCI mega breakout at 100 NASDAQ:NVDA mega support at 120 NASDAQ:TSLA pico bottom at 105 NASDAQ:NFLX pico bottom at 165
OANDA:XAUUSD
by markusrafferty
1
Economy of the last 100 years resumed Gold and Purchasing PowerThis is just a simple observation of what happened with Gold in the last 100 years. Here I show some important economic events highlighting the purchasing power with a red line. When you open a GOLD chart, you can look at the trend and think that it had a very strong bull market during the last century. And you are right, it had a very strong one, but against your currency. In reality, the value of GOLD has not increased that much. The purchasing power chart speaks by itself. Most central banks are private entities that are not controlled by the governments of the countries. From the chart, I can deduce that In a bank, you can keep the money, but not it's value. What do you think about central banks, is a fair system? Write it in the comments. If something of what I wrote here is not correct, please let me know.
TVC:GOLD
by piccard54
The purchasing power of BitcoinThe price of BTCUSD keeps rising up, but so does the supply of broad money (M2). So far this year both have grown 227% and 25% respectively. There is more money now than there was at the beginning of the year, 1/4 more. Based on this metric alone, one dollar is worth 3/4 of what it was worth at the beginning of 2020. Today: One BTC is worth 2.27 BTC from a year ago One USD is worth 0.75 USD from a year ago The price of Bitcoin is going up because it appreciates in value, but also because there are more dollars. How could we track the value increase of Bitcoin while accounting for the dollar devaluation? Another way of formulating that question is: How can we track the purchasing power of Bitcoin? Historically, the price of gold has kept up with the growth of the money supply. (See Lyn Alden's core gold model ) Gold is a well-established store of value. Measuring the price of Bitcoin relative to the value of gold is a way to keep track of its purchasing power. That is what the first graph plots, the cost of Bitcoin denominated in grams of gold. The last ATH was 484.76 grams of gold. On Nov 16, the resistance of 303.07 grams was crossed, putting the price on a trajectory to reach the previous ATH. Bitcoin still needs to rise another 25% to make a new ATH in gold terms. The second graph plots the gold price (USD) for the quantities (grams) identified as support or resistance in the first graph. It is fascinating to see that the USD/Gold-grams levels result in an even tighter fit than the manually drawn price levels. You can add the AU usd/grams levels to a chart with this indicator gold price levels denominated in usd/grams
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by yalla-yalla-habibi
BTC/GOLD & BTC/M2 near 2017 ATHI have been plotting BTC against GOLD (left) and M2 (right) to try and look at the value adjusted for inflation and buying power (using gold to measure buying power). M2 is the amount of money in the world (to simplify it) and BTC / M2 has already broken the 2017 ATH by 7.81%. This is a good sign as it shows that we have surpassed the previous cycle high when adjusted for the money printing that has happened since then. If we only look at BTC /USD we do not take into account the devaluation of the dollar over time, and the loss of purchasing power caused by this. It is not perfect as we are simply adjusting for the money printed but not for the change in prices of all assets (and stuff in general), so we look at gold too. Gold is commonly used as a hedge against inflation and a stable store of value (this paradigm may change soon) and BTC is slowly becoming seen as gold 2.0. Looking at the price versus gold is useful as it adjusts for inflation (in a way) but more importantly buying power. Gold is not a perfect inflation hedge as studies have shown it does not necessarily correlate well to inflation . It does however have a good record of holding its purchasing power over a long time, but not perfectly (see "The Golden Dilemma" paper from National Bureau of Economic Research). Looking at BTC / GOLD shows us that BTC has not yet broken ATH but is close. Meaning that to buy 1 Bitcoin , it will cost you roughly the same purchasing power as it would have back in 2017, not more as the BTC /USD chart would have you believe. I'm using this chart since we are in a blue sky breakout right now, and there is no real way to tell where we may top out. This chart can help with spotting with potential danger zones and reversal areas. If we do not break the ATH vs GOLD to me that shows that BTC does not have the confidence behind that you may think it has when reading the news. However I think we will break through at some point soon, hopefully after a pullback so I can buy more spot. I'm not making a call on which way this will go. I'm just sharing some charts that people often over look, but can be very useful in times with no historic price action to help make sense of. I'm very interested to hear peoples thoughts on this in the comments. ps. HAPPY NEW YEAR
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by MrBetonBlocks
Bitcoin's real value - inflation adjustedThe price of 1 bitcoin in inflation-adjusted USD, starting from Jan 3rd 2009. All price adjustments are based on the current purchasing power of the dollar according to the consumer price index, and comparing to 2009 on the day the genesis block was mined. You can disregard the invisible Visa symbol. It's a dirty trick that allows me to merge both of the Bitcoin-related price scales without merging in CPI , while also keeping inflation data back to the 2009 genesis block. This is because BLX data only starts in July 2010 and having it as the primary symbol would have suppressed inflation data prior to that. I picked Visa simply because its IPO happened shortly before the first Bitcoin block was mined, so it removes most of CPI's irrelevant data dating back to 1947. Unfortunately I couldn't completely hide it (you can still see its value in the price scale if you zoom out a lot). Additionally, the chart skips the days on which Visa wasn't trading (but that shouldn't matter on a large scale). Drag the time/price scale to adjust data. Double-click the price scale to auto-fit vertically.
NYSE:V
by mostlytheview
1