Put-spread
QQQ June BullPut 135/137 (ROI +57%)Entry when price rebounded at Support. Sold at $0.78
Planned RR = 1.6
By moving up the SL with the uptrend, profits were protected, hence risk became 0
Exit - Bought 0.08
Gain $0.70
ROC =16% per month
Well, we are still in an uptrend, technically speaking After the "healthy" correction, kc touched the 100 day MA around 153 as indicated previously as a potential target. Furthermore, we are hitting the lower end of the trend channel (blue).
I am looking for some support coming in here.
As vol softened during the sell off, threeways, selling put spread, buying call seem to be good long market, long vega strategies in my opinion.
KC shortUpdate on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance
On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal.
I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady.
Warehouse stocks in EU and US plenty as well.
Dont get me wrong, as shown in the blue channel, even if we have a correction lower, the blue trend channel might indicate a change in trend, however the frost damage is simply not there and in order to rally, this market would need breaking news like that.... without anything of that sort coming out, I see a correction lower before making new highs.
Still, knowing coffee, I remain short with 1x2 calendar spreads, buying the downside 1 leg in one month and selling 2 lower puts in a month further back.
No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out.
Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions.
Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago.
Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days).
I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits.
Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month.
Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action.
Support at 134, then nothing until 125
Rising wedge, but for now running into supportAs we see some support is coming in from our longer term trend channel as well as the lower Bbands.
So far the last three weeks have provided with the expected sideways action once reaching 50.
Selling calls has been the right strategy so far (51, 52 and 53 calls).
At this support I am covering my short calls, but will hold of selling any put spreads to see how the FOMC decision plays out. I would not be surprised to see no rate hike and crude test some downside targets.
For now, neutral, but getting ready to sell some downside put spreads once we breach the support (if we do)
Generated buy/cover signals on RSI StochastikGold bounced off of the support area for now
Light volume during recent bounce indicates this is a retracement in the downtrend
--> I threw in some Fibs to indicate where overhead resistance lies.
Resistance at:
- 7 day MA (currently there); a break would suggest the 20 day MA or the 38% FIb as target (1240ish)
- 23% Fib at 1224, 38% Fib at 1240
Overall: the lack of volume on the bounce indicates the lows might be tested again as the downtrend is still prevailing.
Took advantage of the break the last 5 days, but covering my short puts now
I dont have any sells signals yet, hence I am not doing anything until I see some
Change buy from neutral as strong support was found on trendlinePro Long:
- Trend line provided massive support (dark red line)
- High volume at support and during the rally
- future spreads very strong (N16-U16 turned into backwardation)
- If we close positive today 7 MA will cross 20 MA generating buy signal
Contra Long:
- running into resistance on middle Bollinger Band (20 day MA)
I sold the 2900 puts last week as a sideways prediction was put in place and will keep that position and add once I see a pull back into the lower trend line
Still waiting, beware bulls; risk reward not so greatPro Long (Chart):
- RSI and Stochastik created buy signal
- Orange support line
Pro Long (Physical):
- ICE warehouse stocks new lows
- spreads tightening ever so slightly
Contra (Chart):
- still in middle to upper end of trend channel
- room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band
- long term trend still down
- risk/reward for long position not there
IMHO I start looking into selling put spreads out in August or September. For example the U16 110/100 p spread.
Due to the negative put skew, 1x2s also work great IMHO (selling the one buying the 2s are also an interesting idea).
MSFT after Earnings pre Market Bull-Put-Spread IdeaIt seem like after Earnings yesterday MSFT is going to open between 54$ and 55$. It's going to be a retest gap. So I would wait for a Retest next week an then sell a Bull-Put-Spread in the purple area with a time of 1 to 2 weeks.
