Tutorial: PC-Indicator - Spar_maDeutsche Version Unterhalb.
English version:
This indicator is supposed to be another tool to recognize when a panic movement has begun and also ended. Of course, there are other indicators that work very well, but this can also help to identify the timeframe.
Description of for using the indicator with the example of the panic sell-off in March:
Before the selloff started, two areas can be identified in which the market is being tested. This is when at the same time, the price intersects with the 21 moving average and the put / call indicator. This indicates that something could be wrong (no guarantee, just an indicator). This happened first (marked with 1) when the virus was discovered: Few who had been informed had any idea what might happen. The second "drop" (marked 2) happened when it was publicly announced that such a virus existed. The third time the panic broke out (marked 3) long after the virus was known. The portfolios should have been hedged here at the latest. Shortly before the yellow marking the virus was reported daily and maximum panic were spread. This was the point at which the hedge could theoretically be ended (if you have the courage to do so). However, I myself waited until the 21st and the indicator were clearly broken.
This indicator could have helped to save a loss in value of the portfolio by at least 17%. I hope this indicator can continue to perform as well.
Please leave a like and subscribe if you are interested in further trading ideas from me.
Name of the indicator: “PC-Indicator - Spar_ma”
That’s my opinion and should be treated like it.
No trade advice!
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Deutsche Version:
Dieser Indikator soll ein weiteres Tool sein um erkennen zu können, wann eine panische Bewegung beendet ist. Natürlich gibt es weitere Indikatoren die sehr gut funktionieren, dieser kann jedoch zusätzlich dabei helfen zu erkennen wann es soweit ist.
Beschreibung des Indikators an Beispiel des Panischen sell-offs im März:
Bereits vor beginn sind zwei Bereiche zu erkennen, an denen der Markt getestet wird. Dabei kreuzen sich gleichzeitig der Kurs mit dem 21-gleitendem Durchschnitt und dem Put-/Call- Indikator. Das lässt darauf zurückführen, dass etwas kommen könnte. Dies geschah zuerst (mit 1 gekennzeichnet) bei der Entdeckung des Virus: Wenige die Informiert wahren, jedoch ahnten was passieren könnte. Der zweite „Drop“ (mit 2 gekennzeichnet) geschah als öffentlich bekannt gegeben wurde, dass ein solches Virus existiert. Beim dritten Mal brach die Panic aus (mit 3 gekennzeichnet), lange nachdem dieser Virus bekannt gewesen war. Spätestens hier sollte das Konto gehedged worden sein. Erst kurz vor der gelben Markierung wurde täglich vom Virus berichtet und maximale Panic verbreitet. Dies war der Zeitpunkt an dem theoretisch der Hedge beendet werden konnte (wenn man den Mut dazu hat). Ich selbst habe allerdings noch gewartet bis der 21ger und auch der Indikator klar durchbrochen wurde.
Dieser Indikator hätte dabei helfen können einen Wertverlust des Kontos um mindestens 17% ersparen zu können. Ich hoffe dieser Indikator kann weiterhin so gut performen.
Bitte lasst ein like da und abonniert mich, falls Ihr Interesse an weiteren trading-ideen von mir habt.
Name des Indikators: “PC-Indicator – Spar_ma”
Dies ist nur meine persönliche Meinung und sollte auch so betrachtet werden.
Dies ist keine Handelsempfehlung.
Put
SNOW - money flowing out of this name to new IPOsSNOW was the new shiny thing - up over 75% of the IPO price in just over 50 some trading days.
Now the new kids are in town. $DASH $ABNB
$DASH IPO coincided with QQQ sell off.
$ABNB is coming Thursday.
SNOW is selling and more down trend in QQQ to be expected. Profit taking time?
Playing PUTs when the price hits as high as $383 on the bounce.
Price Target $340
The Start Of A Downtrend This may be the start of a downtrend for Tesla, MACD is falling and Bollinger bands have given a sell signal. There is also a sell signal by Divergence+
Comment your thoughts below, how low do you think it will go before an uptrend starts again?
Will be watching on the 1 HR chart all week. I plan on selling my put this week also, already up 40%.
3 month H&S completed in home depot; expect a sharp move in decYou can watch this in conjunction with my Lowe's trade posted below. Essentially they're a play on the same industry and overall market crash in dec; (they're price is strongly correlated to the general market). Choose whichever one works better for your risk management.
Like always, thanks for the constructive feedback
NKLA trends lowerNow its pretty to point out that NKLA at the moment is stay way stock for share buyers. Today NKLA pumped maybe trying to short out novice investors by "buying the dip."
NEWS
-GM says it wont move forward with NKLA, which is a smart play as Trevor Milton is being investigated
-SPACS are rumor to be in a bubble and NKLA bubble poped from past FORD ceo interview
TA
-Well we are in a downtrend (no shit), so the pump today still goes along with the downtrend, with so much negativity I personally wont be buyer till $9, but support lines add up to 11.09-13.95, which may be the new trading range for a long period of time
-RSI is below 39.1, which according to bullish price action it would have to stay above
-MACD is flipping bullish, but news catalyist doesn't look so hot
Final Thoughts
I personally have no stake, not even a put. I would be a small buyer between 11.09-13.95, but I would wait till it dips under 11.09 creating "despair" in the market cycle, which could be absolute bottom. This range would last until theres a breakthrough or even sales that come in which would happen in 3-4 years. Again not a buyer here and wait for the final drop of probably Trevor dumping and hitting stop loses of swing traders and long term holders. Plus the EV market is tanking, so not a good buying opportunity.
Apollo Hospitals @2110 - Target 2400 and stop loss of Rs. 22Apollo Hospitals has approached it's multi year trend line negating covid turbulence from April to July.
Historically, for Apollo Hospitals RSI has been a critical indicator suggesting whether to expect the trend line to be a Support or resistance.
After the quarterly result blues are over, RSI indicates that stock is ready to approach and cross the multi year trend line if it holds above 2110 on closing basis.
Very small stop loss can fetch 300 Rs upside in quick time. Good candidate for call buying also given recent down trend call pricing would be cheap.
WBA reversal @ $43.35, buy 27NOV PUT $41 @ $1.30-$1.40WBA hit and reversed from $43.35 historical resistance. The 13 SMA & 30 SMA are preparing to cross, the MACD pre-confirmation has already occurred, historically indicating reversals for this stock. There is looming vaccine news that can impact performance but if news is mired in political discourse, reversal should hold. Got in at $1.34, looking to sell at $2.68 o/a 18NOV. $0.80 stop loss in place.
JNJ reversal @ $148, buy 20 NOV PUTs $147 @ $1.45-$1.50JNJ broke through 200 SMA. The 13 SMA & 30 SMA are preparing to cross, the MACD pre-confirmation has already occurred, historically indicating reversals for this stock. There is looming vaccine news that can impact performance but if news is mired in political discourse, reversal should hold. Got in at $1.48, looking to sell at $2.95 o/a 18NOV. $0.90 stop loss in place.
Bajaj Auto - Critical Decision Level @3100Bajaj Auto has been following a clear trend line with topside resistance. A parallel trend line with bottom matching makes it a 339 point channel.
Ignoring the covid impact from April to July the stock has been properly following the channel and gives a great call / put buying opportunity with minimal time decay to premium as it arises just a week before expiry at closing price in the range of 3100.
If the closing is above 3100 call for 3200 can give excellent return considering just 7 days to expiry and because it's a long trend channel break out the upside move shall be fast so results in prices can be seen before November expiry.
If it retractes from 3100 then puts shall be available much cheaper rate due to last 3-4 days upwsing and hence put of 3000 can show immediate result before November series expiry.
NIFTY 50 US ELECTION TRADE PLANHELLO EVERYONE!
MY VIEW ON US ELECTION TRADE PLAN
NIFTY50 RECENTLY BREAKED MAJOR SUPPORT ZONE
AND ALSO WEEKLY TIME FRAME HIGH REJECTION AROUND 12000LEVELS
WE CAN CONSIDER THESE RANGING LEVELS OF 11660 TO 12025 AS BOX FORMATION ON OVERALL HH'S
AS PER TECHNICALS,IF BOX (RANGE)FORMATION FORMED ON HH"S MEANS IT WILL DEFINETELY BREAK DOWNWARDS
IT PERFECTLY BREAKED DOWNWARDS AND MADE LL"S ON 4HR TF
SO,PROBABLY THERE WILL BE A HUGE SELLOFF THIS WEEK
IF NOT ENTERED BEFORE MEANS,SELL AT LH ON MONDAY ORELSE BELOW 11540
TARGET1-11270
TARGET2-11030
THANK YOU!
Options buying and sellingI decided that before explaining complex strategies, I need to explain call options and put options and differences between buying and selling.
(I'm adding down calls chart)
The term "the option is worthless" meaning that the stock price didn’t finish above the strike price in calls or finish below in-puts.
Buy Calls – Bullish “strategy”, you need to select a stock that will go up in price in a reasonable time. Limited loss (The maximum loss is what you paid for the option), theoretically unlimited profit.
Buy Puts – Berish “strategy”, you need to select a stock that will go down in price in a reasonable time. Limited loss, theoretically unlimited profit.
Selling Naked means that you only sell the option contract without owning the shares. 1 option contract equals 100 shares.
Sell Calls (Naked) – In general, this a Berish “strategy”, but it depends.
The seller wants the option to expire worthless, meaning all the value of the option will go to zero, the price of the stock needs to be at the expiration date under the strike price of the option. Theoretically unlimited loss, limited profit.
Example:
XYZ worth at the beginning $100 per share.
The seller sold 1 option -
Different calls:
In the money option strike $95 worth - $6 ($5 intrinsic value + $1 time premium)
At the money option strike $100 worth - $3
Out of the money option strike $105 worth - $1
In the money call sold – The seller sold a call at the strike price of $95
If the stock will finish anywhere below 95$ The call seller will profit $600
The stock has to go down at least $5
At the money call sold - The seller sold a call at the strike price of $100
If the stock will finish anywhere below 100$ The call seller will profit $300
The stock can be neutral or go down slightly.
Out of the money call sold - The seller sold a call at the strike price of $105
If the stock will finish anywhere below 105$ The call seller will profit $100
The stock can be neutral or go down slightly or even go up in price and the seller will still profit.
You should notice if the stock will go up in price large loss could happen.
In theory, this loss is unlimited, in practice, the loss is limited by time. The stock cannot rise to infinity.
Naked call selling is not the same as a short sale of stocks. While both have large potential risks, the short sale has much higher reward potential, but the call selling will do better if the stock remains at the same price.
You can see from the example that the call seller can make money in situations when the short seller would have lost money.
Covered call writing (selling) – I won’t go deep here, this means the seller of the option own 100 shares, the cover call writer is mildly bullish or neutral. People do this to decrease the risk of owning a stock or don’t believe the stock will go very high in price and they want extra profit. This limits the profit potential.
Sell Puts (Naked) – In general, this a Bullish “strategy”, but it depends.
The seller wants the option to expire worthless, meaning all the value of the option will go to zero, the price of the stock needs to be at the expiration date above the strike price of the option. Theoretically unlimited loss, limited profit.
An example of selling puts is exactly the opposite of selling calls. The seller wants the stock price to be above the strike price of the option he sold. (Will show you down with another chart)
What happens in the buyer and seller portfolio after expiration, several cases
We will examine calls buy and sell if the stock finishes above the strike price of the option, for example, the strike price is 100 the stock finish at 105.
The buyer needs to buy from the seller 100 shares ( 1 option contract) at the strike price, meaning he will need to have $10,000, but the stock is at 105.
The buyer portfolio will be with 100 shares long at $100 with an unrealized profit of $500 minus the premium paid for the option minus commissions.
The seller needs to provide those stocks, so he will be short 100 shares at $100, with a loss of (-$500) plus the premium he received from the buyer for the option, minus commissions.
If the stock finish below the strike of the call option, the option is worthless and the buyer lost the debit he paid for the option, the seller received all the credit.
No stock transaction is happening.
Time – The more we get closer to expiration the greater the time decay, this is good for the seller and bad for the buyer, remember the seller wants the option price to go to zero, receive all the credit.
Volatility – Raise in volatility is good for the buyer and bad for the seller, when volatility raises the option gets more expensive. If the option that was bought now worth more because of the rise in volatility the buyer profit from it.
There is a lot more to say about this subject, every strategy has a different consideration that needs to be taken into account.
Note: Naked option selling is usually a strategy for professional traders.
Chart:
Buy put – option price -> 129.4 , stock price -> 3286.33 , strike -> 3045, days -> 52 , implied volatility -> 47.4% (0.474), date-> 27/10/2020
Sell put – option price -> 127.25 , stock price -> 3286.33 , strike -> 3045, days -> 52 , implied volatility -> 47.4% (0.474), date-> 27/10/2020
Delta 0.3