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Why I booked profit on my shorts today?Context : As I explained in my post earlier, I expected strong selling in the zone 11380-11630. Remember this zone is where the shock moves started happening in February 2020. I actually did not trade much in the zone, but I started shorting around the upper range of the zone - around 11600. About Trade : I have been positional short from Sept 13, I bought Oct 29 PUTs to give me more time. But NIFTY moved in the anticipated direction. When I am sitting on profit, it is important to protect my profits. But also I should be careful of not being fearful . I did the following adjustments 1) I covered more than half of my position. 2) Remaining position I rolled below 200 points. I also hedged the same by selling even lower strike PUT of near expiry. All this ensured, I have taken profits. And then I am also in the trade. Downside is I won't be making large money if NIFTY continues to sell off in the next 2-3 days. Why did I booked some profit? 1) NIFTY made a very symmetrical move to the initial move, and many times, that makes traders to cover the positions. This means less momentum on downside. 2) There was a large 0.6%+ hourly bar at important support level - 11040. This also can be seen as a hammer in the 2hr chart. 3) Tomorrow is expiry. And because we had a large range month, it is not unnatural to have some confusing counter moves. It is better to step aside and just watch. References: Sep 13 Short Sep 3 Short Aug 28 Short
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
AT&T Moving south in the near future?AT&T looks to be fighting trending resistance, and is further being pressured out of its horizontal channel, falling out of the 28.92/30.04 price range. A light friday candle, arguably a doji, will not hold up this slight move in price northward. Good volume, however, and RSI Indicator suggesting a possible reversal off the 28.92 support. The question - Will it hold? The current trend says no - 8 EMA is now acting as resistance as well, and the last several weeks are pushing it south. Put/call volume ratio is 1.43, with put volume exceeding call volume. What's hard to tell, imo, is this - is this hedging volume, straddle/strangle strategies? I do believe, as in the recent past, this opens/pushes bull initially then falls bear. My top 2 strategies; $T (29.00) 28 P 09/18 0.08 Strategy #1 - Limit/market buy 0.08 OR $T (29.00) 28.50 P 09/18 0.15 Strategy #2 - LIMIT Buy @ 0.08, thinking this will open and run north to 29.26, dropping premium to my limit buy 0.08 Strategy #2 fulfills 3 things - a great discount toward a put buy, a better put strike position, being 0.50 closer to underlying price and better delta!! *Let's see what happens* DISCLAIMER - I am not a professional trader. These are merely my thoughts and possible moves; i enjoy watching these stocks validate my process or slap me across the face lol. If you are in need of professional assistance with your trades, don't look here. I am not that guy.
NYSE:TShort
by mrmaximo74
5
CLX crosses below 100 day EMAClorox NYSE:CLX has really been selling off this month. The stock has dipped below its 100 day exponential moving average more than twice recently. I am going to see if CLX break below the 200 EMA. If so, then the key levels to watch might be that bearish turning point line, which was drawn using previous support levels. Seeing this chart makes me wonder...Is the Coronovirus trade over? As the economy slowly starts to re-open, and talk about the Coronavirus fades into "yesterday's news," can we expect to see a selloff in other stocks that may have benefited from the pandemic? I certainly think so. As the month of November nears, you can expect to hear less about the Coronavirus and more about the upcoming U.S. Presidential election. Hang on to your shorts folks ... its about to get interesting.
NYSE:CLXShort
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
Why I am planning to by PUT Options on NIFTYContext : August 31 was a the day when NIFTY broke it's normal routine of moving up slowly, which started in June. It also followed up by another leg of down move on Sep 4. I was able to play both these moves because of sound strategies. And Now with these two successful attempts, I completely understand , shorting again may not be a good idea. **** THIS IS HIGH RISK TRADE. PLEASE DO NOT FOLLOW> JUST SHARING FOR INFORMATIONAL PURPOSE **** the question arises, what is next? Are we done with correction or this time, something has changed? Nobody knows the answer. But as a trader, it is my job to create a logical viewpoint and design a trade which rewards me if NIFTY indeed goes in the way I imagined. For creating this view, I can dig deeper in the recent corrections and see if there is anything I can build upon from the data. Now I do not know if the current correction is over, but since 9 days have passed, I am willing to study the current move as well. Study of corrections so far ==================================================================== Correction 1 (June 8 - 12) Upswing Days : 8 (6G + 2R) Upswing Chg : 14.71% Upswing Angle : 68 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : High Trap Correction Days : 4 (1G + 3R) Correction Chg : 7.59% Correction Angle : -71 Correction end : Large Candle + News --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ 17% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -3% (90.51%) No. of days to regain the top - 7 Note : No deeper close below 15 day EMA Sharp surprise emerged at climax low ***************************************************************** Correction 2 (June 24 - 29) Upswing Days : 8 (5G + 3R) Upswing Chg : 10.57% Upswing Angle : 62 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : High Engulfing Correction Days : 4 (3G + 1R) Correction Chg : 3.12% Correction Angle : -59 Correction end : Indecision + Spring --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ -2.25% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -12.6% (75.36%) No. of days to regain the top - 3 Note : Stayed above 15 day EMA ******************************************************************* Correction 3 (July 13 - 16) Upswing Days : 10 (7G + 3R) Upswing Chg : 6.56% Upswing Angle : 44 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : False Breakout Correction Days : 4 (1G + 3R) Correction Chg : 2.79% Correction Angle : -60 Correction end : Hammer --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ 0% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -16.49% (35.84%) No. of days to regain the top - 2 Note : Just touched 15 day EMA, did not close ******************************************************************* Correction 4 (July 29 - August 3) Upswing Days : 9 (7G + 2R) Upswing Chg : 6.97% Upswing Angle : 54 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : Silent, No pattern Correction Days : 4 (4R) Correction Chg : 4% Correction Angle : -69 Correction end : Climax Exhaustion --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ 4.4% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -2.2% (36.1%) No. of days to regain the top - 6 Note : Closed below 15 day EMA, strong negative close. ******************************************************************* Correction 5 (August 11 - 14) Upswing Days : 5 (4G + 1R) Upswing Chg : 4.32% Upswing Angle : 53 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : Dragonfly doji Top Correction Days : 4 (2R + 2G) Correction Chg : 4% Correction Angle : -55 Correction end : Climax Exhaustion --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ 0% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -2.5% (71.69%) No. of days to regain the top - 2 Note : Just touched 15 day EMA, did not close ******************************************************************* Correction 6 (Or Trend Change) (August 31 - ?) Upswing Days : 10 (8G + 2R) Upswing Chg : 5.83% Upswing Angle : 47 --------------------------------------------- Correction onset : Large Bearish Engulfing Correction Days : 8 (5R + 3G) ... Correction Chg : 5.19% ... Correction Angle : -59 ... Correction end : Gap Reversal (?) --------------------------------------------- VIX Jump ~ 25% % Stocks above 20 SMA (Chg) ~ -25.65% (27.66%) No. of days to regain the top - 9 days has not regained the top Note : Stayed below 15 day EMA for 4 candles. ******************************************************************* My observations about current correction ----------------------------------------- 1) Current downmove has made the NIFTY participants fearful. VIX jumped 25% during the period. 2) So far 9 days have passed and NIFTY has not been able to reclaim the 11800 level. 3) Market breadth has weakened considerably. There are only 27% stocks above 20 SMA 4) NIFTY broke 15 day EMA and stayed below it for some time, which none of previous corrections did. My view ------- 1) All these observations mean, the buyers are not enthusiastic here to aggressively buy. 2) Buyers are fearful and only betting on few names (27% of the stocks) 3) If buyers are waiting for lower prices, NIFTY will drift down under selling pressure. 4) For now, intention to sell is also not very clear. 11800 and 11600 levels , there was selling, but it is not confirmed. 5) Sellers are scared that NIFTY may again move up and then buying will accelerate. They are comfortable selling once previous point is taken out. Possibilities ------------ 1) For now, I assume the possibility of NIFTY breaking down further , how much - lets assume 10%, that is the healthy correction even in bull market. That is roughly 10600-10700 level 2) Will NIFTY go and touch 11800 in between, yes may be. But for building my view, I assume it wont cross 11800 convincingly. 3) This move can be sharp or can form complex top - distribution pattern. How to trade this? ------------------ 1) I'll buy a October 29 11000 PUT , preferably when NIFTY is around 11400 - 11500. Current price for this is 162 rs 2) Anytime, this goes to 400 Rs or closed, I'll close the trade or hedge it to secure profits. (NIFTY 10700-10600 on SPOT) 3) My stop loss is NIFTY closing above 11900 for 2-3 days. How I can further reduce my risk? --------------------------------- 1) Since I am buying the PUT , I can offset some of its cost by selling 10600/10700 PUT every week. But this is potentially restricting move, so need to be executed only when strong buying is seen on lower time frames. How much loss I can see? ------------------------- If NIFTY hits stop loss by Sept 30, PUT will be around 40 rs ~ that is 9000 rs loss per lot.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
4
Options Idea: Sell The PAM Sep. 18, 2020 10.0 Put @ $0.40Pampa Energia (PAM) is reversing a long-term downtrend, and beginning to trend upwards. After hitting a low of $8.72 in March, we’ve been seeing higher highs and lower lows for the last 4 months. This is an Argentine stock and it’ll probably see a bump higher after the government finishes its sovereign debt restructuring. Also, PAM has a share buy-back program in place and management has been very aggressive about buying back their ADRs when they get close to the $10 zone, which is the strike we've chosen for our naked put. Warning : PAM options are not liquid. So if you decide to enter into this trade, you’ll probably have to take all the way to Sep 18. Since there isn’t much liquidity, so probably won't be for everyone, but we think the current set-up offers a good risk/reward ratio. 20-PAM-02 Opening Date: July 27, 2020 Expiration Date: September 18, 2020 DTE: 53 IV: 76.42% IV Percentile: 42% Odds of Winning: 77.87%% Odds of Losing: 22.13%% Win: > 9.60 @ Expiration Loss: < 9.60 @ Expiration Reg-T Margin: $290 Chart Legend Green Area: 100% Win Zone. If we finish above or in the green area, we keep 100% of our initial credit. The size of the green area is the size of credit (our maximum win). Yellow Area: Danger Zone: We still win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in. Red Area: If we finish in this area we have a loss. The size of the red area is the size of our maximum loss. 1 standard deviation, 2 standard deviation, 3 standard deviation projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
NYSE:PAMLong
by OptionsCoach
Options Idea: Sell The September 18, 2020 Put @ $1.3ALRM seems to have stopped its downward trend. It has recovered the EMA 8 and is heading back to EMA 20 territory. I sold a Sep 18 2020 55.0 Put @ 1.3 with the idea that the uptrend will continue over the next few days or weeks. 20-ALRM-01 Opening Date: August 20, 2020 Expiration Date: September 18, 2020 DTE: 29 IV: 44% IV Percentile: 37% Odds of Winning: 68% Win: > 53.70 @ Expiration Loss: < 53.70 @ Expiration Chart Legend The green area represents 100% win zone. The yellow area is a win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in. The red area is loss. 1 SD, 2 SD, 3 SD projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
NASDAQ:ALRMLong
by OptionsCoach
1