Trade Log NIFTY August 12I expressed my thoughts in August 11 post
If global cues are supportive , then NIFTY may attempt another go towards 11380-11390 zone. I think this level should pose some resistance. With VIX slowing down, intraday range is compressing. I do not have a clear view for tomorrow.
One very interesting observation is, both days and the week so far has formed dragonfly candles -> open = close (within some points). These candles back to back may be seen as a sign of coming climax+exhaustion. So in the next one or two days, NIFTY may show a large red body candle.
NIFTY opened a gap down but did not follow through.
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My Trades
I sold 11300 PUT when the signal occurred for intraday buy. This was covered later.
My observations for the day
NIFTY closed flat -0.12%
BANK NIFTY closed 0.17% up
VIX dropped further 2.41%, so far VIX has dropped 6%+
Advance Decline ratio is 23 to 27
Option data confirming the narrow range of 11200 - 11400.
My view
Unchanged view. I still feel the climax move is pending on NIFTY. Possible reversal trade is 11380-11400. But for shorting it is best to wait for price action to confirm the same.
August 11 Trade Log
Weekly View
*Possibility 1 as per my assumption.
Put
3 price outlooks for NikolaI don't see any big investors rallying in before they see alot more than what Nikola has delivered so far.
They're 2Q revenue of 30k came from excecutive member buying solar panels from Nikola :D...
Cathy Wood publicly stated Nikola is headed to 0 in their view.
My bets are on 1 and 2...
Cheers!
Trade Log NIFTY July 30In my trade log of July 29, I commented
The breakout has failed. I think NIFTY is likely to test other extremes -- retest of 11000 and 10900 initially.
This may not happen tomorrow as tomorrow is an expiry day. There may be another attempt towards 11270 which needs to be watched carefully.
Tomorrow I am more biased towards consolidation day.
Review
NIFTY is well on its touch of 10950-11000 range.
The attempt towards 11270, which I was monitoring failed. This prompted me to take trade early.
It looked a lot worse than consolidation day. NIFTY broke down marginally the range of 11110-11300.
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My Trades
The first hour trade was bullish as the opening range broke. But when there was no momentum towards 11300. I exited that at the target.
I was watching the triangular pattern that was getting formed, when it broke down, I bought 11200 PUT. I rarely buy PUTs. I bought PUTS for the next expiry to avoid time decay. And another reason to capture the entire move as I the support below was around 11150, 125 points below.
My observations for the day
NIFTY closed 11102, down -0.90%.
BANK NIFTY down -1.95%
VIX gained 2.55%
Advance Decline ratio is 13 to 37. Broader market showing 1:2 advance decline
Option data for new series showing range of 11000-11200.
FII and DII data neutral.
NIFTY created an important pattern today, which is the intermediate term topping pattern. If this pattern holds, NIFTY won't be crossing 11140 tomorrow. And breakdown towards 11040 and then 11960 looks very likely. Option data also shows not much resistance expected till 11000.
My view
Tomorrow, I assume a downward bias with the possibility of 11040 and 11000. I’ll see the price action around this area to decide the next steps. If this is really some sort of intermediate top, there should be a gap down and the gap will be sustained for the day.
July 29 Post
Trade Log NIFTY July 21My July 20 Trade Log I had said (Link below)
Trend is up. There is no resistance till 10269. I’ll mostly trade intraday on upside.
As I mentioned in my weekly view, I’ll wait patiently till I see some signs of exhaustion. In line with my Monthly view posted in June, NIFTY is close 400 points away from challenging my monthly view. Hence I don't move fast on either sides.
Not much is changed. NIFTY is near the possible resistance zone of 10200-10270.
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My trades today
Intraday, I sold the CALL option when opening low broke. That trade was trapped. That was a signal for selling PUT as well. Both positions squared off near the end of the day.
I am also holding positional short, which is a risky trade.
My observations for today
NIFTY closed 1.27% up. Gap up was sustained.
BANK NIFTY closed 2% up
VIX down 1.15%
Advance decline ratio 32 to 18.
NIFTY is in it’s 6th week of upside. Also it is near the level which has been measured as the target of the move. That is the first swing from March lows to April High.
My view for tomorrow and coming week
1. I’ll be trading with consolidation to bearish bias tomorrow. This view is against the trend but I think 10200-10270 is a good area to start thinking about reversal.
2. I’ll build positional shorts, not aggressively, but with generous time and price stop loss.
3. For tomorrow, if there is a gap up, I think it'll difficult to sustain the gap especially if it is near 10200.
Banknifty on the path of Break and make Its a happy short covering since last two days in the BN however a sense of confusion will evade only above the pink box (large). We will take Sell of Call options above this area aggresively and on Monday can witness retracement to test near term support level.
Follow us on twitter and Tlgm
Trade Log NIFTY July 15In my yesterday’s post, I had said
I need one more confirmation of close below 10560. This will confirm some sort of intermediate top.
I am not sure about tomorrow, maybe a pause or continuation day. Overall this week has clear down bias. Any rise is selling opportunity as long as NIFTY does not close above 10820
I am still waiting for this confirmation. It was not a pause / continuation day as I expected. It was a roller coaster ride. Because of Reliance results, I got out of the trend and avoided trading intra day.
My trades today
As NIFTY crossed the resistance area, I sold puts and later covered near the target zone.
My observations for today
NIFTY had a very volatile day finally closed 0.10% up.
BANKNIFTY closed -0.24%.
VIX dropped 1.3%
Advance Decline ratio is 26 to 24 which is neutral.
Open Interest data showing 10800 as firm resistance and 10500-10600 band as support.
FII and DII data is negative.
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Overall, looking at structure, it is confirmed now, that balance has changed in favour of sellers. The question to be answered is if this is some sort of a correction or start of fresh downward.
I’ll watch Thursday, Friday and Monday candles to make my opinion the same. In case of fresh downtrend, at least a downward gap, close around or below 10430-10400 is required.
View for tomorrow
Again tomorrow may be a pause ,range bound day with indecision candle. I don't expect it to cross above 10760. The lower bound is again 10560.
The other possibility is continuing the trend towards the 10500 level.
I’ll start with assumption of 10560-10700 range and play from there.
IWM - Russell Bull Trap?It seems unlikely to me that the Russell will find support here and move towards 158. Betting that this is a bull trap and we see a large move downwards towards $125 in July, with the Russell capturing the initial wave of negative news surrounding re-closures and disappointing earnings.
Entry: $141
Target: $125
Capital One -- Not in My WalletAlthough Capital One is involved with more than consumer credit cards, it doesn't feel like a great place to be with record unemployment -- while unpopular, I am taking the gamble that the longer term trend is closer to '08 style credit crisis. The indicators line up, as well as the exact price levels. If this sells off (starting with poor earnings next week?) and was to do an exact length match to the bottom as in '08, it would be 17 monthly candles, or in this case roughly December 2021. COF broke through its 200 day moving average, and I don't see the earnings impressing.
Trade Log NIFTY July 8Review of yesterday’s view
1. With BANKNIFTY leading, the stage is set for a perfect rally tomorrow. It’s dead simple on charts now that NIFTY will go to 10900-11000 levels.
2. If there is a massive gap up, I won't trade.
3. For brave traders, the reversal opportunity is near 10989.
It was a wrong expectation. NIFTY’s price action is bearish on daily charts now.
My trades today
I did multiple trades today. And survived the last one hour of selling. I plan to do a tutorial post on the same. It turned out to be not so good day for the tutorial trading, as the last 1 hr selling was very strong and not anticipated.
My observations for the day.
1. NIFTY closed -0.87% down. It formed two back to back bearish candles.
2. BANK NIFTY also closed in the red -0.19%.
3. VIX rose 4% indicating uncertainty in the market.
4. Advance Decline ratio is 14 to 35.
5. Sentiment has turned bearish confirmed by open interest data.
Today’s price action was pivotal in many ways. Though some confirmation would be great in the next 2-3 sessions by big red candle.
NIFTY formed dragonfly doji on Tuesday and created bearish engulfing of that doji today.
NIFTY closed below the bearish wedge pattern breakout today. This breakout has failed now.
BANKNIFTY also formed a bearish candle for the day.
All three previous tops had similar price action swing, climax and then fall.
My view for tomorrow
Tomorrow is a weekly expiry day. I am not sure if NIFTY pauses here for tomorrow or continues and fills the gap.
Overall, I’ll trade now with bearish bias for the coming week. 10800 is a clear level which needs to be broken decisively for any thought of an up move.
Trade Log NIFTY July 2In my yesterday's post I had said
1. NIFTY broke out above 10400, but faced resistance at 10440. 10440 is strong resistance. So tomorrow, strong candle above 10440 is required to confirm this breakout. Breadth is not supportive for the breakout.
2. Tomorrow, I'll wait to see if breakout gets confirmed. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Considering consolidation, there could be some strong moves in either direction. I'll refrain from option selling (Near the money) tomorrow.
3. 10390 and 10360 is the zone, break of which will remove the strength of the breakout.
4. For intra-day, any 30 min break above 10440 is a signal for long and confirmation of up move today.
My view about strong moves, break of 10440 with strong candle all happened.
My trades today
1. I sold 10400 PUT on breakout of the range and covered it near 10580 resistance.
My observations for the day
1. NIFTY strong up day breaking and closing above previous high. It closed 1.17% up.
2. BANKNIFTY closed -0.11%.
3. VIX down -5.73%.
4. Advance Decline ratio is 36 to 14.
My view for tomorrow
1. Today's breakout is not a convincing breakout. Mostly because of it was weekly expiry and BANKNIFTY not supporting the move.
2. I do not anticipate this upswing will have lot of momentum. But with close above 10440, I have changed my view about the trend to bullish.
3. But I wont take overnight long positions. I am reluctant to be completely positive about this breakout.
Trade Log NIFTY July 1Review of June 30 Trade Log
1. As i have said in my weekly view, I am more on bearish side and I think this consolidation will result in break of 10240.
2. I'll short on break of 10240. My bearish bias is wrong if NIFTY closes above 10420.
I was wrong to assume the breakout is on downside. NIFTY broke out of the range on upside.
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My trades today
I was expecting a trending day today. I sold 10400 PUT on opening range break. I covered it end of day for profit.
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My observations today
1. NIFTY gained 1.24%. Technically it is a breakout after 4 days of consolidation.
2. BANKNIFTY gained 2.84%.
3. VIX dropped 3.43%
4. Advance Decline ratio is 26 to 23. This is neutral.
5. Option data showing 10300 - 10500 range.
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My view for tomorrow
1. NIFTY broke out above 10400, but faced resistance at 10440. 10440 is strong resistance. So tomorrow strong candle above 10440 is required to confirm this breakout. Breadth is not supportive for the breakout.
2. Tomorrow, I'll wait to see if breakout gets confirmed. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Considering consolidation, there could be some strong moves in either direction. I'll refrain from option selling (Near the money) tomorrow.
3. 10390 and 10360 is the zone, break of which will remove the strength of the breakout.
4. For intra-day, any 30 min break above 10440 is a signal for long and confirmation of up move today.
Trade Log NIFTY June 23In my post yesterday (link below), I had said,
1. NIFTY may face consolidation, but brief consolidation in the current zone - 10380-10280.
2. Even it goes little below but stays above 10060, the view remains intact.
3. 10380 does not look like a top. In next attempt, this will be taken out and NIFTY may move towards 10500.
4. Overall, as I discussed in my weekly review. I am not interested much in trading 10300-10600 zone.
5. There is no point in creating short position trade right now.
The consolidation did not play out for long and deep enough, but point 3 worked perfectly.
My trades today
1. When NIFTY broke above opening range, I sold 10400 PUT which I covered near end of day.
My observations for the day.
1. NIFTY closed near high of the day and finished 1.55% higher.
2. BANKNIFTY closed 2.56% higher.
3. INDIA VIX fell 3.68%
4. Advance Decline ratio 46 to 4. Thats very good.
5. Option covering is not seen so far at 10500 CALL.
From the action today, my view is
1. I still think, crossing 10540-10580 is not easy. If with strong sentiment, there is gap up and it gets crossed, it'll be difficult to sustain above that without some retracement in the coming days.
2. For brave traders, there is good reversal trade around 10580 with SL 10700. To be done with options for next months expiry.
3. Considering the that NIFTY is in last week expiry, no target is impossible, but it should eventually consolidate/retrace around these levels.~ 100400-10600.
My weekly view
My post yesterday