Put
Options Idea: Sell The PAM Sep. 18, 2020 10.0 Put @ $0.40Pampa Energia (PAM) is reversing a long-term downtrend, and beginning to trend upwards. After hitting a low of $8.72 in March, we’ve been seeing higher highs and lower lows for the last 4 months. This is an Argentine stock and it’ll probably see a bump higher after the government finishes its sovereign debt restructuring. Also, PAM has a share buy-back program in place and management has been very aggressive about buying back their ADRs when they get close to the $10 zone, which is the strike we've chosen for our naked put.
Warning : PAM options are not liquid. So if you decide to enter into this trade, you’ll probably have to take all the way to Sep 18. Since there isn’t much liquidity, so probably won't be for everyone, but we think the current set-up offers a good risk/reward ratio.
20-PAM-02
Opening Date: July 27, 2020
Expiration Date: September 18, 2020
DTE: 53
IV: 76.42%
IV Percentile: 42%
Odds of Winning: 77.87%%
Odds of Losing: 22.13%%
Win: > 9.60 @ Expiration
Loss: < 9.60 @ Expiration
Reg-T Margin: $290
Chart Legend
Green Area: 100% Win Zone. If we finish above or in the green area, we keep 100% of our initial credit. The size of the green area is the size of credit (our maximum win).
Yellow Area: Danger Zone: We still win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in.
Red Area: If we finish in this area we have a loss. The size of the red area is the size of our maximum loss.
1 standard deviation, 2 standard deviation, 3 standard deviation projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
Death Cross Forming $UNI will be testing out the Death Cross pattern with $UN paper trading. History shows that UN usually will go down the day after - 2 days after the pattern is complete, reaches it's low a few days later. The goal is to reach $53, right where it was before it blew up last month from earnings
AMD has gone parabolic, good shorting opportunityShort idea is summarized as follows
1. stock has gone parabolic and these typically have aggressive corrections
2. robintrack shows sentiment is extremely optimistic so would like to make a contrarian bet
3. assuming a SZ 84-88 so taking a $4 risk and executing the trade via November PUTS. 80 strike
Options Idea: Sell The September 18, 2020 Put @ $1.3ALRM seems to have stopped its downward trend. It has recovered the EMA 8 and is heading back to EMA 20 territory. I sold a Sep 18 2020 55.0 Put @ 1.3 with the idea that the uptrend will continue over the next few days or weeks.
20-ALRM-01
Opening Date: August 20, 2020
Expiration Date: September 18, 2020
DTE: 29
IV: 44%
IV Percentile: 37%
Odds of Winning: 68%
Win: > 53.70 @ Expiration
Loss: < 53.70 @ Expiration
Chart Legend
The green area represents 100% win zone.
The yellow area is a win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in.
The red area is loss.
1 SD, 2 SD, 3 SD projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
Trade Log NIFTY August 14In my August 13 post, I had said
“I have a bearish view for tomorrow. I consider the 1 hr candle (11.00 AM) which failed the opening gap and for the day, there was no attempt to recover above 11320. This view is invalid when NIFTY stays above 11360.”
I had also mentioned the possibility of big red candle in my post dated
“One very interesting observation is, both days and weeks so far have formed dragonfly candles -> open = close (within some points). These candles back to back may be seen as a sign of coming climax+exhaustion. So in the next one or two days, NIFTY may show a large red body candle.”
My Trades
On break of opening range, I bought 11300 PUT , which was squared off near the end of the day. Today I bought put instead of selling, because when range fails, breakout is sharper.
My Observations for the day
NIFTY closed 1.08% lower.
BANK NIFTY closed 2.33% lower.
VIX is up 5.37%
Advance Decline ratio is 12 to 37.
Open interest data for Options shows the 11000 and 11300 range.
Finally after 4 days of tight consolidation, NIFTY broke down below and achieved all the targets. Now further downside possible when NIFTY breaks below 11100. I’ll cover more about the same in my weekend post.
Happy Independence Day!!!
Trade Log NIFTY August 12I expressed my thoughts in August 11 post
If global cues are supportive , then NIFTY may attempt another go towards 11380-11390 zone. I think this level should pose some resistance. With VIX slowing down, intraday range is compressing. I do not have a clear view for tomorrow.
One very interesting observation is, both days and the week so far has formed dragonfly candles -> open = close (within some points). These candles back to back may be seen as a sign of coming climax+exhaustion. So in the next one or two days, NIFTY may show a large red body candle.
NIFTY opened a gap down but did not follow through.
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My Trades
I sold 11300 PUT when the signal occurred for intraday buy. This was covered later.
My observations for the day
NIFTY closed flat -0.12%
BANK NIFTY closed 0.17% up
VIX dropped further 2.41%, so far VIX has dropped 6%+
Advance Decline ratio is 23 to 27
Option data confirming the narrow range of 11200 - 11400.
My view
Unchanged view. I still feel the climax move is pending on NIFTY. Possible reversal trade is 11380-11400. But for shorting it is best to wait for price action to confirm the same.
August 11 Trade Log
Weekly View
*Possibility 1 as per my assumption.
3 price outlooks for NikolaI don't see any big investors rallying in before they see alot more than what Nikola has delivered so far.
They're 2Q revenue of 30k came from excecutive member buying solar panels from Nikola :D...
Cathy Wood publicly stated Nikola is headed to 0 in their view.
My bets are on 1 and 2...
Cheers!
