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Trade Log NIFTY June 9In my trade log for Yesterday, I had said 1. NIFTY has started consolidation. I am going to assume consolidation at least tomorrow morning session till noon. 2. In this consolidation, there are two possibilities - 1. Simple dip 2. Formation of range couple of days. To understand and confirm one of these we need conclusive break of last breakout level 10160-10180, preferably on hourly chart. If this happens NIFTY can also head to last swing low of 9950 in the process. 3. I am inclined to believe, there will be range formation. 4. NIFTY traders are uncertain about 10300 Level. There will be couple of attempts around that level. 5. Broader market performing well, can be taken as positive or negative. If bad quality stocks performing today, then it could be some retail inflows, which may signify not much upside left in the current swing. But these kind of indicators are at the best very weak indicators. From these points, I feel confident 1. NIFTY is in consolidation. It is likely to see some downside tomorrow as well. 2. This is not a simple dip, This is likely to form range. 3. 10300 is firm resistance, any upside is possible only above that. 4. NIFTY is now searching for lower end of the range - first candidate for that is last swing low 9950. My trades today: 1. Morning session, I reluctantly took long, but covered it quickly on first sign of weakness. 2. Then I sold 10100 call, which turned out to clean trending trade. I closed the same around end of the day. Observations for the day 1. The cut on NIFTY little more deeper for consolidation. NIFTY closed 1.19% down. 2. BANK NIFTY closed -2.18% down. 3. INDIA VIX closed 1.8% up. 4. Advance Decline on negative side. 13 advances to 27 Declines. Broader market little better with 757 to 1135. 5. RELIANCE market leader for the current swing showed loss of momentum. 6. Option Data showing resistance shifting at lower levels 10100. My readings for tomorrow 1. Not much changed in my view. I need to wait and see how NIFTY reacts to 9950 level. Overall I still treat this as consolidation. 2. One thing for sure, that the breakout of 10170 is now negated and 10333 is strong resistance zone. 3. Idea would be to keep shorts till NIFTY closes above 9280. 4. As long as 9800 level is protected, I'll continue to believe this is just a consolidation.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY June 5In my view of 4th June I had said 1. NIFTY may not give rapid gains now as VIX is cooling and below 30. 2. NIFTY has strong resistance starting from 10380 - 10600. 3. In next 2-3 days, as early as tomorrow, NIFTY may see strong push towards 10400. 4. BANK NIFTY is under performer, but for the last push , it may again drag NIFTY along. 5. Tomorrow, if opened down, it may go to touch 9900-9930 zone and bounce from there. Overall, I believe we have started seeing the push I mentioned and it may continue on Monday. My trades today. 1. On break of opening range I sold 10100 PUT, but that did not work out well. It did not hit the stop loss and I closed it when it turned back in profit. My observations today 1. NIFTY opened gap up, in the consolidation region and at the end recovered and closed near high of the day. It gained 1.13%. 2. BANK NIFTY was strong 3.16% 3. India VIX supporting the rally by going down 3.40%. That means traders are less anxious about this gains for now. 4. Market breadth very positive. 1567 advances to 309 declines. NIFTY 40 advances and 10 declines. 5. Option open interest data shows traders are balanced. Not very bullish and not bearish. 6. Weekly candle very positive , its 2nd around 6% week. Overall trend is positive on weekly and daily time frames. The rise is fast and till I see the signs of consolidation, I assume upward trend is intact. I plan to do a detailed weekly view post over the weekend. Have a nice weekend!
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 4In my view of June 3 I had said 1. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Overall there are some tiredness signs visible for the rally, but I still wont short it tomorrow. 2. Tomorrow will be 7th day. I think there is one more push remaining for NIFTY in current swing before consolidation. 3. I'll mostly wait on sideline, and not take much bets in first half of the day. So not much change here actually, NIFTY saw consolidation around 10000. My trades today 1. When NIFTY came to touch the support around 9980, I sold 10000 PUT and later covered it for profit. My observations for the day 1. NIFTY was choppy and it was uneventful expiry. NIFTY closed -0.32% down 2. BANKNIFTY lost -2.63%. And it mostly contributed to NIFTY's fall. 3. VIX is stable and fell below 30. 4. Advance Decline ratio neutral market wide and for NIFTY it is 26 to 23 5. Option chain indicating sideways expectation of traders as there is balanced open interest. Today's action favouring consolidation with downward bias. 10500 and 9500 have highest open interest. My view for tomorrow 1. NIFTY may not give rapid gains now as VIX is colling and below 30. 2. NIFTY has strong resistance starting from 10380 - 10600. 3. In next 2-3 days, as early as tomorrow, NIFTY may see strong push towards 10400. 4. BANK NIFTY is underperformer, but for the last push , it may again drag NIFTY along. 5. Tomorrow, if opened down, it may go to touch 9900-9930 zone and bounce from there. Given this view I wont short currently. And keep playing intra day levels cautiously.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 02In my June 1 update, I had said 1. As NIFTY approached 9900, VIX rose and there was strong resistance in the zone. I believe this zone will be tested a couple of times in intra day movement before breaking above. 2. There is not much space for long trade until we clear the resistance zone and close above 9930. 3. I think NIFTY will form a consolidation range under 9930 and try breaking out. I need to watch how low it can go to form the lower boundary of the range. 4. 9700 should be a good candidate level lower boundary. In short, my reading was OK. I anticipated the consolidation to last atleast for couple of days. But NIFTY broke out of 9930, and range is not formed, It took support in 9800 area. My trades today 1. I squared my 9900 CALL for loss start of the day. This was a big loss. 2. When 2nd touch of resistance was touched, I sold 9900 CALL and covered that quickly for profit one first sign of strength. 3. Then on breakout I sold 9900 PUT and covered it for profit end of the day. My observations for the day 1. This rally has its 5th positive day. Today NIFTY closed with 1.5% gain. 2. BANK NIFTY outperformed and closed 2.86%. BANK NIFTY closed right at the key level of 20530. 3. INDIA VIX closed 30.12, 2% down 4. Advance Decline ration was ok 36:14, Not as strong as it could be. But BANKNIFTY can drag it along. My view for tomorrow 1. Tomorrow will be the 6th day of higher highs. NIFTY closed near high of the day and just below strong psychological level 10000. 2. If there are positive global clues, NIFTY can create massive gap and short covering. There is not much overhead resistance till 10383 - 10400. 3. The other thing that I sense is mostly it can do similar thing some consolidation below 10000 and eventually breaking it. 4. Considering BANKNIFTY chart, I am more towards quick break and then continuation of rally on Thursday.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY June 1In my trade log for May 29 I had said 1) BANK NIFTY is not leading the rise. So it may cause consolidation and ranges. 2) Overall trend is up and typical bear market rallies are fast. 3) So far this rally has not given any gaps, so next week some surprise gaps can start occurring. For point 3, we saw the gap today. Let us see if we get more gaps in the next few trading sessions. My trades today. I was not very comfortable going long after a large gap right above resistance level. I did conservative trade. I sold 9700 PUT and covered it in profit. Then I stayed away from the trades. I still hold 9900 CALL sold on Friday which I’ll hold till NIFTY crosses 9920. I observed the following about price action today. NIFTY gaped up above 9730 and filled the previous high gap. It closed with 2.57% gain. BANKNIFTY outperformed and gained 3.43% VIX rose 1.73% Advance Decline ratio 40:10. What I read about the price action today 1. As NIFTY approached 9900, VIX rose and there was strong resistance in the zone. I believe this zone will be tested a couple of times in intraday movement before breaking above. 2. There is not much space for long trade until we clear the resistance zone and close above 9930. 3. I think NIFTY will form a consolidation range under 9930 and try breaking out. I need to watch how low it can go to form the lower boundary of the range. 4. 9700 should be a good candidate level lower boundary.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 29First, I'll start with the review of my yesterdays post. Yesterday, I had posted my view and some important levels that I use on the chart. I had said 1) Trend is up on daily time frame. Weekly trend is up, provided we dont have huge down on Friday. I think NIFTY will gain / consolidate tomorrow. 2) Tomorrow strategy will be to see the consolidation rage. But I wont carry any near the money positions into next week. And I had marked levels on the chart, which I used in my trading decisions today.Both points were quite obvious. Good thing, market played out to the levels wells. This is no guarantee, sometimes market coincides with your point of view by chance. My trades today 1) I sold 9500 CALLs around first resistance and closed it at weak support level of the day. 2) Then when high of the day was tested multiple times, it was broken and I sold 9500 PUT which I squared off. 3) Since INDIA VIX is around 30, I attempted to take few overnight positions. I sold some 9900 CALL options. Lets see how it goes. Its risky. My observations of the day 1) NIFTY closed positive for the third day in a row. 0.95% for today and around 6.4% in 3 days. 2) NIFTY is now in kind of uncharted territory. Less price action in 9500 - 9900 has very less price history in last 2 months. 3) BANK NIFTY unperformed and did not make new high like nifty. 4) INDIA VIX increased little. 5) Advance Decline ratio 36 to 14. I dont have conclusions, as I have I would like to wait till Monday to have clear view. I'll also post detailed weekly review coming weekend. But from days action 1) BANK NIFTY is not leading the rise. So it may cause NIFTY;s momentum some consolidation and ranges. 2) Overall trend is up and typical bear market rallies are fast. 3) So far this rally has not give any gaps, so next week some surprise gaps can start occurring.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
6
Trade Log NIFTY May 28First, I'll start with reviewing my yesterdays post I had said 1. I''ll trade light tomorrow and see how we consolidate, what kind of range we form. 2. I'll wait till Friday, or may be Monday, to really changing strategy clearly on long side. But obviously now Bias is on long side as long as we are above 9000. As per plan, I traded light and also stopped trading around 1.30PM My trades today: 1) This trade was pretty simple. I sold 9400 PUT on open and waited for first sign of weakness. 2) Then when there was failure to continue, I sold 9400 CALL and then squared near bottom of the range. My Observations today: 1) Expiry day today. NIFTY gained 1.88% 2) BANKNIFTY gained 2.45% 3) INDIA VIX fell 4% 4) Advance Decline is 42 to 8. Broader market 1245 to 531. So it was broad based buying. 5) For next week, Option data shows bullish bets, Highest OI at 9000 and 9500. My reading of the price action. 1) Trend is up on daily time frame. Weekly trend is up, provided we dont have huge down on Friday. I think NIFTY will gain / consolidate tomorrow. 2) Tomorrow strategy will be to see the consolidation rage. But I wont carry any near the money positions into next week. I have also marked important levels tomorrow.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade log NIFTY May 27In my yesterdays note, I had said 1. I had said , "Tuesdays price action should be taken as indicative of trend forward". I believe in that and till expiry, there could be down trend continuation. 2. I am not sure if 9000 will hold. 8970 - 8940 is key support region, if this fails, the bias is on short side. 3. Again 9150 - 8950 is the range we are looking at. I am not going to sell options around this range, as this is expiry week and there can be surprises. But trade will come when breakout of the range happens. I was wrong on my Tuesday reading referred in point 1. Point 2 is invalidated for some time. For point 3, it helped me as I did not sold options overnight. And today NIFTY and BANK NIFTY created large move. My trades today : First I closed my yesterdays trade of buying PUT option for loss, as there was no follow through for down movement. Then I made number of trades all for decent profit and as per plan. My profit was limited, because I had 9200 as target in mind and did not traded much after that. BANKNIFTY actually offered much clear opportunity on charts. I'll post that separately as it turned out very nicely. My observations for the day : 1. NIFTY made big candle after consolidation. 2. Today is a day before monthly expiry. 3. BANKNIFTY outperformed and closed 7%+ 4. INDIA VIX fell less than a percent. 5. Index breadth was positive, 41 to 9 but overall breadth was OK, 1059 to 712 6. NIFTY closed above 10,20,30 and 50 day simple moving average. So overall clear trend day. The only suspicious things are 1) VIX did not fell heavily. That means, NIFTY has to consolidate to keep this gains and make it a new swing. 2) Timing of today's rally. Near expiry so, I wont go all in. My reading 1) I''ll trade light tomorrow and see how we consolidate, what kind of range we form. 2) I'll wait till Friday, or may be Monday, to really changing strategy clearly on long side. But obviously now Bias is on long side as long as we are above 9000.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 21My trades today. 1) I had entered credit spread (Sell 9000 Put / Buy 8800 Put) for 71 rs. This expired in full profit. 2) Then as NIFTY was consolidating in the range, made a risky reversal trade and quickly got out. I sold 9100 call and covered it. 3) On breakout of 9145 I was able to Sell 9200 PUT and and squared it around resitance. This turned out to be good decision as NIFTY fell after that. I did not trade after that because NIFTY unexpectedly moved down around 2.30. In my last post I had said 1. I think, some kind of sustainable pullback may have started. It needs confirmation by holding up tomorrow. 2. Another confirmation signal is BANK NIFTY makes higher high. For confirmation of bottom, I would wait till Friday EOD . 3. Obviously, this pullback does not change long term picture right now. But now intra-day bias is clearly shifted to bullish side. 4. VIX dropping dramatically at 8800 support level , means NIFTY may make 8800 as base for this pullback rally. For point 1, NIFTY confirmed by staying in green. For point 2, BANK NIFTY may be looking bad, but managed to form higher high and higher low for daily candle today. I maintain that I'll wait till Friday for another confirmation on pullback rally. For point 3, intra-day bias is on bullish side till NIFTY is above 9000. For point 4, VIX again dropped, expiry day effect as well. But still one more confirmation about 8800 support for pullback rally. From the price action today 1. NIFTY gained, BANKNIFTY closed in red. drop in bank NIFTY sudden after 2.30. 2. VIX fell by another 8%. 3. NIFTY and BANK NIFTY both candles are weak. 4. Advance Decline ratio is 30 to 20. OK. not great. From this action my reading for Friday. 1. I am reluctant to jump on either sides for long term future. For tomorrow, I maintain my bullish bias in NIFTY. 2. I'll change my view when NIFTY drops below 9030-9000 zone. 3. I think tomorrows day may decide the trend for next week.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 20My trades Today 1. I sold 8900 PUT today as market opened with positive bias. When It faced rejection at 9000, I squared off the position. I was profited because IV dropped. 2. Then there was a consolidation in tight range. Since there was no follow through on short side after rejection, I was confident of selling credit spread. I'll let it expire/ close tomorrow. 3. Then on breakout of the range, I bought CALL and squared it off near EOD. In my Trade log post for May 19, I had said 1. Global news not helping, NIFTY is showing strength, but BANK NIFTY bearish . On BANK NIFTY chart, 17150 - 16700 is a support zone . This will be second touch of the zone, hence it can build support here. That means 8800 can be touched again, or even breached. 2. I don't expect NIFTY to go below 8600. 3. Also, I don't think 8800 is a bottom, on next touch, it may not hold, at least breached once. In this, point 2 is certainly confirmed. For point 3 I think there are chances that 8800 may be bottom for near term and pullback rally starts from here. Observations about price action today 1.NIFTY gained in the first few hours. It maintained the gains and consolidated in tight range. And then gained even more in second session. Closed 2.11% up. 2.BANK NIFTY supported 2.11% 3.VIX down 9%+ 4.Advance Decline ratio 42 to 8. 5. NIFTY formed higher low and higher high. BANK NIFTY did not form new low. For next 2 days, 1. I think, some kind of sustainable pullback may have started. It needs confirmation by holding up tomorrow. 2. Another confirmation signal is BANK NIFTY makes higher high. For confirmation of bottom, I would wait till Friday EOD. 3. Obviously, this pullback does not change long term picture right now. But now intra-day bias is clearly shifted to bullish side. 4. VIX dropping dramatically at 8800 support level, means NIFTY may make 8800 as base for this pullback rally.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY May 19My trades today: 1. Due to positive global cues, I expected positive day today. Hence I sold 8700 PUT in first 15 minutes, with stop below yesterday's close. 2. When opening range was sustained and downward trend line break happened I sold 8900 PUT. 3. Around 11, NIFTY was already 2.43% up and started showing signs of momentum loss, that is candles with long tails. Hence existed both the positions at profit. 4. Then when opening range high of the day was broken decisively on second attempt, intra-day trend turned. Hence I sold 9200 CALL, which I later covered around bottom of the opening range. Review of price action today: I observe 1. Following global cues, NIFTY opened gap up, but could not sustain gap. 2. BANK NIFTY closed negative, while NIFTY closed positive. 3. INDIA VIX fell 3.5% 4. NIFTY Advance Decline was 36:14, which broader market Advance Decline was not good 781 to 980. 5. Inside candle formed after large bearish candle yesterday. My view for next tomorrow and Thursday 1. Global news not helping, NIFTY is showing strength, but BANK NIFTY bearish. On BANK NIFTY chart, 17150 - 16700 is a support zone. This will be second touch of the zone, hence it can build support here. That means 8800 can be touched again, or even breached. 2. I don't expect NIFTY to go below 8600. 3. Also, I don't think 8800 is a bottom, on next touch, it may not hold, at least breached once.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Draft Kings is a Monster - Long Live Sports BettingsDraft Kings I personally believe is worth double what it is now. However, sports not being played all that makes it scary for investors. With news on earnings today I think you see a big time change. I think it will consolidate in the corner forming an ascending triangle and breakout the top. If it doesn't I also marked put options where to enter and wher to check on the way down. Personally I am long not just on 30% rev earnings, but I love draft kings myself, their customer support, overall experience and its a money making machine with little overhead.
NASDAQ:DKNG
by DigitalData
14
Trade Log NIFTY May 14About Trades today: 1. I sold 9600 CALLS intended to expire. Since market opened gap down, I did not sell PUTS. 2. Opening range of 15 Mins was broken , but could not sustain, hence I enetred the trade sell 9300 CALL intended to covered on touch other end of the range. 3. On touch of range , 9200 PUT of next week expiry was entered , but it was lacking strength, and sold before 1.30 4. When the range broke down, I sold 9200 CALL of next week expiry and closed the position around EOD. In my notes yesterday I had said, 1. Somewhere market players are doing the maths and estimating that the impact of stimulus in the short term is minimal. Otherwise the range breakout would have been sustained. 2. The series of FM conferences will create some sector specific action, but overall stimulus bounce is behind us. 3. Since we are on the top bound of the range, the obvious bias is to again short till we breakout the range, that is close above 9450. It turned out to be true. NIFTY actually swung back near to the other end of the range. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY gap down near support area 9200, but after initial bounce, it did not show any buying. 2. VIX fell 1.68% 3. Advance Decline ratio is very weak 40:10 4. BANK NIFTY under performed . It fell -2.88%. It also just filled the gap, did not fell further like NIFTY, so overall, it has better performance if we combine yesterdays move. 5. Tech sector weakened today based on US news flow. All this means 1. NIFTY is again in the lower bound of the range, It is likely to go below 9130 and then down to earlier lows around 8800. 2. This fall may not be steep or with momentum. It can be another range bound movement in 9350 - 8800 area.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
4
Trade Log NIFTY May 12About trades today. I sold 9300 CALL as there was a gap down opening below 9190. I squared off the position when NIFTY could not go below 9040. I sold 9000 PUT as there was a possibility of bounce. I squared off this position in profit. I hold 9500 CALL sold from Friday. That position is open. NIFTY Opened gap down below 9190 and continued till 9050. Then it reversed sharply to close near 9200. This may be the lower bound of the range - 9050. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY opened gap down and closed the gap. Also today was 7th down day. 2. NIFTY bounced off sharply from 9050 level. If NIFTY manages to close above 9340 in next two days, NIFTY may again try to touch upper bound of the range. 3. VIX rose less than a percent. 5. Advance Decline ratio 32:18 , on positive side. 5. BANK Nifty performed similar to NIFTY. I read this action as 1. NIFTY has touched the 9050 region and reversed. It may now try to retrace and go towards 9440, upper bound. This may be successful or not. 2. From overall price action today, buying the dip in NIFTY or BANK NIFTY would be good strategy for coming days.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY May 11About trades today. I sold 9300 PUT as there was a gap up opening above 9350. This position is trapped. I squared off the position for loss. I also squared off my positions from Friday. I hold 9500 CALL. That position is open. NIFTY Opened gap up above 9350 and sustained there for some time, like 30 minutes. But then it was straight down day. So 9340-9440 is a hard to break resistance zone. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY has opened gap up and closed the gap. This has happened 3rd time in last 5 days. 2. NIFTY showed follow through on the downside after breaking below 9350. 3. VIX fell little less than a percent. 5. Advance Decline ratio 30:20 , on positive side. 5. BANK Nifty fell down 2%, mostly due to ICICI Bank I read this action as 1. I assume now some momentum is gathered. If NIFTY breaks below 9130, this fall will touch 9000 region.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 8About trades today. I sold 9200 PUT as there was a gap up opening. This position is trapped. I bought 9000 PUT to reduce overnight risk. I also sold 9600 CALL as NIFTY crossed 9330 below. Booked Profit in that position. I sold 9500 CALL when NIFTY crossed below 9300. That position is open. In my May 6 Log I had said 1. I think NIFTY may open gap down or little negative and move towards 9000. 2. Until we close above 9300, it is better to stay on short side. 3. Gap up opening is possible only when there is some positive global news. In that case, need to wait for close above 9350. Review : NIFTY did not gap down, instead gap up. But it did not sustain over 9350. It did not close above 9300. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. With Morning gap up, range was broken, but it turned out to be false breakout of 9350. 2. NIFTY consolidated in the tight range of 9300 and 9330 for morning hours and finally broke down below 9300. 3. In sell off below 9300, there was no momentum. Many bars are overlapping and with tails. 4. VIX fell little 3.81% 5. Advance Decline ratio 28:22 , neutral. 5. BANK Nifty fell down more and closed in negative, -0.7% I read this action as 1. Trend is negative but momentum is lacking on downside. Considering uncertainty, this may continue going forward for some time. 2. Sometime soon, NIFTY will try to touch other boundary of the range , that is 9130, I'll do a detailed post for weekly review for the week over the weekend.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY May 7 In my yesterday's market review, I had said 1. Tomorrow is expiry day. I wont take tomorrows action, especially sharp move if any as indication of further trend. 2. Mostly indecisive day today, so we have to see in which direction the NIFTY moves further. I do not have any bias going in tomorrow. 3. But if I have to build some view, then I think it'll be uneventful expiry (9300 +- 50) tomorrow, if there is no news flow tonight. Point 3, around uneventful expiry turned to be correct. The expiry happened around 9200 with lot of chopping moves. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. Market was very choppy and formed indecisive candle, which is inside candle as well. 2. The action around 9200 -9230, It was a narrow range action - no trade possible. 3. Bank NIFTY also traded in very narrow range. 4. Breadth was bad. 11 Advances and 29 declines. 4. Option writers again going in with 9000 as lower limit and then 9300 upwards calls were written. All this means 1. Trend is negative. and market paused today. 2. Sometime soon, may be tomorrow, there will be expansion of the range. On downside till 9000. And for upside, first NIFTY needs to build above 9350. For tomorrow, 1. I think NIFTY may open gap down or little negative and move towards 9000. 2. Until we close above 9300, it is better to stay on short side. 3. Gap up opening is possible only when there is some positive global news. In that case, need to wait for close above 9350.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think