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Trade Log NIFTY May 12About trades today. I sold 9300 CALL as there was a gap down opening below 9190. I squared off the position when NIFTY could not go below 9040. I sold 9000 PUT as there was a possibility of bounce. I squared off this position in profit. I hold 9500 CALL sold from Friday. That position is open. NIFTY Opened gap down below 9190 and continued till 9050. Then it reversed sharply to close near 9200. This may be the lower bound of the range - 9050. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY opened gap down and closed the gap. Also today was 7th down day. 2. NIFTY bounced off sharply from 9050 level. If NIFTY manages to close above 9340 in next two days, NIFTY may again try to touch upper bound of the range. 3. VIX rose less than a percent. 5. Advance Decline ratio 32:18 , on positive side. 5. BANK Nifty performed similar to NIFTY. I read this action as 1. NIFTY has touched the 9050 region and reversed. It may now try to retrace and go towards 9440, upper bound. This may be successful or not. 2. From overall price action today, buying the dip in NIFTY or BANK NIFTY would be good strategy for coming days.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY May 11About trades today. I sold 9300 PUT as there was a gap up opening above 9350. This position is trapped. I squared off the position for loss. I also squared off my positions from Friday. I hold 9500 CALL. That position is open. NIFTY Opened gap up above 9350 and sustained there for some time, like 30 minutes. But then it was straight down day. So 9340-9440 is a hard to break resistance zone. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY has opened gap up and closed the gap. This has happened 3rd time in last 5 days. 2. NIFTY showed follow through on the downside after breaking below 9350. 3. VIX fell little less than a percent. 5. Advance Decline ratio 30:20 , on positive side. 5. BANK Nifty fell down 2%, mostly due to ICICI Bank I read this action as 1. I assume now some momentum is gathered. If NIFTY breaks below 9130, this fall will touch 9000 region.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 8About trades today. I sold 9200 PUT as there was a gap up opening. This position is trapped. I bought 9000 PUT to reduce overnight risk. I also sold 9600 CALL as NIFTY crossed 9330 below. Booked Profit in that position. I sold 9500 CALL when NIFTY crossed below 9300. That position is open. In my May 6 Log I had said 1. I think NIFTY may open gap down or little negative and move towards 9000. 2. Until we close above 9300, it is better to stay on short side. 3. Gap up opening is possible only when there is some positive global news. In that case, need to wait for close above 9350. Review : NIFTY did not gap down, instead gap up. But it did not sustain over 9350. It did not close above 9300. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. With Morning gap up, range was broken, but it turned out to be false breakout of 9350. 2. NIFTY consolidated in the tight range of 9300 and 9330 for morning hours and finally broke down below 9300. 3. In sell off below 9300, there was no momentum. Many bars are overlapping and with tails. 4. VIX fell little 3.81% 5. Advance Decline ratio 28:22 , neutral. 5. BANK Nifty fell down more and closed in negative, -0.7% I read this action as 1. Trend is negative but momentum is lacking on downside. Considering uncertainty, this may continue going forward for some time. 2. Sometime soon, NIFTY will try to touch other boundary of the range , that is 9130, I'll do a detailed post for weekly review for the week over the weekend.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY May 7 In my yesterday's market review, I had said 1. Tomorrow is expiry day. I wont take tomorrows action, especially sharp move if any as indication of further trend. 2. Mostly indecisive day today, so we have to see in which direction the NIFTY moves further. I do not have any bias going in tomorrow. 3. But if I have to build some view, then I think it'll be uneventful expiry (9300 +- 50) tomorrow, if there is no news flow tonight. Point 3, around uneventful expiry turned to be correct. The expiry happened around 9200 with lot of chopping moves. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. Market was very choppy and formed indecisive candle, which is inside candle as well. 2. The action around 9200 -9230, It was a narrow range action - no trade possible. 3. Bank NIFTY also traded in very narrow range. 4. Breadth was bad. 11 Advances and 29 declines. 4. Option writers again going in with 9000 as lower limit and then 9300 upwards calls were written. All this means 1. Trend is negative. and market paused today. 2. Sometime soon, may be tomorrow, there will be expansion of the range. On downside till 9000. And for upside, first NIFTY needs to build above 9350. For tomorrow, 1. I think NIFTY may open gap down or little negative and move towards 9000. 2. Until we close above 9300, it is better to stay on short side. 3. Gap up opening is possible only when there is some positive global news. In that case, need to wait for close above 9350.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 6 Yesterday, I had said 1. Today NIFTY did opened with positive global clues but could not sustain. I expect some gap down opening if there are even mildly negative news. 2. I do not have clear idea, but my hunch is tomorrow again will be a down day with mostly some support discovery around 9050-9150 region. Overall, I think point 2 was observed. The support was discovered in the region of 9100-9150. Now We have to see how long this holds. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. VIX dropped 5.41% for just 0.75% rise in NIFTY. Market was choppy and formed indecisive candle. 2. The second sell off of the day after 1:30, found higher support around 9190. 3. Bank NIFTY outperformed. 4. Breadth was Ok. 37 Advances and 13 declines. 4. Option writers undecided at level 9300 and considers 9600 as upper limit. 9100 as lower limit for tomorrow and coming week. All this means 1. Trend is still negative, but there could be a pause and consolidation. That means some reversals on intra-day charts. 2. We have to consider the 9100-9200 region as the support now. This support will further confirmed if we get a close above 9340 tomorrow. And resistance of 9340 is confirmed if it closes below 9190. For tomorrow, 1. Tomorrow is expiry day. I wont take tomorrows action, especially sharp move if any as indication of further trend. 2. Mostly indecisive day today, so we have to see in which direction the NIFTY moves further. I do not have any bias going in tomorrow. 3. But if I have to build some view, then I think it'll be uneventful expiry (9300 +- 50) tomorrow, if there is no news flow tonight.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY May 5 In my yesterdays review, I made the following points 1. This fall now wont be as unidirectional and steep as the March fall. 2. There will be choppiness with negative bias. 3. 8300 is not short term bottom. 4. The first bounce if any tomorrow will likely to fail. Point 3 and 4 were confirmed by today's price action. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. VIX did not dropped significantly. This means this continuation did not surprise or created fear. 2. The sell off after 1.30 was steep. And there is no climax action today. 3. Bank NIFTY under performed severely. 4. Breadth was not too bad considering the points lost, but banks contributed to the losses. 4. Option writers consider 9400 -9500 unbreakable by May 7. All this means 1. Trend is confirmed as negative. 2. This drop in now entering the choppiness zone of last rise, 9000 - 9150, This is likely to offer first support if any. For tomorrow, 1. Today NIFTY did opened with positive global clues but could not sustain. I expect some gap down opening if there are even mildly negative news. 2. I do not have clear idea, but my hunch is tomorrow again will be a down day with mostly some support discovery around 9050-9150 region.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY April 30Expiry day today. Gap up is huge and there is very little chance for me to participate any trade. Still scalped small profit. Few Observations for today: 1. Bank NIFTY initially surged but closed around Low of the day. 2. Advance and Decline ratio is not great. 3. This market surged in straight line from 9270 to 9860. This is 600 points rise in 2.5 days. 4. VIX has not fallen today. Till we cross 10000 - 10500 zone, we are still in large down move. Hence I'll be careful of going long till this view invalidates. Considering this background, May month may start volatile. Mostly on downside.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY April 29NSE:NIFTY broke out of the range today. 1. I squared off trapped call positions for loss. 2. On breakout, sold 9500 PUTS which were squared off profit. Some ideas from the price action today. ------------------------------------------------------------ Today may be much awaited start of the breakout. The strength of the breakout is pretty strong. But one thing to be noted is This breakout still need to be confirmed by spending couple of days more building on this strength and staying above 9400. The overall market breadth was not very strong. 38 Advances and 12 declines. Since large move is made today, tomorrow we may have consolidation. Once again remember overall view on monthly time frame , This is just a first meaningful bounce which can fail anytime. So better to stay light on long positions.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY April 17NIFTY Gaped up. Since the breakout of 9250 was held for 15 Mins , I entered PUT 9200. This was aggressive because the level for stop loss was 9040 , which is way below the opening level. 1. 9200 PUT sold at 152 Rs Then NIFTY touched 9220, which I though was a pullback. 2. 9100 PUT sold at 152 Rs NIFTY crashed and consolidated around 9130. Then there was sharp rally in last 1.5 hrs. This is very difficult move. Closed the day by squaring off both the positions. Overall, NIFTY is making violent moves trapping trades who are looking for clear trend.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY April 7Nifty Gaped up and continued moving in one direction. I was thinking about this kind of day for last 3-4 sessions, but never imagined such a strong momentum. I could not capitalise this move fully. Ended the day with normal profit. There are few points to keep in mind. 1) VIX did not fall proportional to this strong move. 2) 9100 continues to be strong resistance overhead. But overall, this day will change view to bullish from consolidation for few days.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
SPY range trading, AlphaOverBeta Technical AnalysisHello traders, SPY had completed a 1-2-3 pattern and is consolidating its price pattern, this is very good technical news as price returned to standard behavior after moving wildly and unpredictably. The current trade range is 245-265 in the short term, any move above the 265( which our model begins to increase the probability for! ) will provide a bullish short term indication, moving below the 240-245 will provide the trigger that the market is headed to re-test the 220 lows. We are currently short term bullish on SPY with PUT options hedging our position, crossing the 265-270 resistance will provide a major trigger to go long equities. Trade Smartly, Alon, AlphaOverBeta
AMEX:SPY
by Alon_AOB
2
NCLH sweet tradingNow to note on some of my trades went, well not great due to the virus. HL options expired and everything pretty much dropped. Even though I had some bear options on amd and spce. The virus didn't give a dam about it and if you were a bear you were lucky a little if you weren't reading the virus early stages in China, which AMD dump was given. Now on to NCLH and why I'm bullish. First the news -On friday trump signed the 2trillion dollar stimulaus package with 4trillion set aside in case the 2trillion fails...hint hint it will fail. -Now NCLH and the cruise lines weren't in the relief help in the bill, so on Friday and today they tanked with fear - Trump has stated he will be buying/bailing them out with only NCLH leaving his mouth, so NCLH could be a safe accumulation phase and probably the most volital stock...I love it -NCLH, only one I heard, is proactive and leasing their ships to the US gov to fight the virus and help treat people. -One concern is that their staff has been reported lying about what NCLH is doing, yet the company told their emplyees to stop spreading rumors and the lies. Now the virus, yes the virus is needed to do TA with uncertain so lets cover global news on it. -USA becomes number one in case, yet still fewer deaths besides in major cites/high destiny population -Vaccine/treatment is suppose to come later this fall, yet the average time of a vaccine is over a year, so next year is likely candidate to end the virus/be able to treat it. -More and more world leaders are catching the virus and could cancel/delay the US elections. Now into NCLH TA -Side note I read that there have been alot of put sellers at the $10, yet take it with a grain of salt during this uncertainty and may be just stupid money against crusies. -Now overview on the lines: -the purple box is the range a bought NCLH on March 19 with the first blue horizontal line being a sell before it went to $20. -Green line at $9.88 is todays buy near market open with that insane dump with fear from friday one could say -Second blue line is the low of march 25-26 which could be a top with this buy in with the idea we could get into a tight range before making the big move. -First red box of 30% is from todays buy to the low mar 24 before it had its move to $20. The second one is from todays buy to the low of the trading range of mar 25-26 -Emas are still far apart and looks towards more downside -MACD looks like its gonna go bullish with a crossover as the selling platues out, could make another hill so still risky trade -RSI is oversold, but not deadly oversold, just oversold by today. -Volume is dropping and have an expected massive move soon since volume is still up there as today bulls hold the low $10 range. I'm bullish on NCLH cause it was hit one of the hardest since china came out with the virus early this year. From what I read NCLH is the most proactive crusie line and during this bear trend in the market, I believe sub $10 or whenever you are confident there is hugh potential and upside. Also going on the assumption as the president said they will bail/buy out NCLH after discussion and them leasing their ships out is postive news to accumulate on and could get a bigger cut when they get their releif. Long esposer may hurt, but during this time and with a cheap price this is a great swing trading stock during this market.
NYSE:NCLHLong
by nathanielx9