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ROLLING: NDX/IUXX AUG 5TH 4350/4375 SPV TO 4400/4425Rolling up the put side yet again (I've basically rolled the thing into an "iron butterfly" (filled for a .90 credit ($90)) to defend the call side. I generally don't like to "invert" condors (here, roll the put side beyond the call side), so I'll probably just leave the setup alone running into expiry, but keep an eye on the setup's net delta and make a decision as to whether I want to erect a separate delta hedge (in this case, most likely another short put vertical set up in a separate expiration) to protect the position from further upside and/or mitigate call side loss. Otherwise, I'll just do my usual close out the worthless side, roll out the tested side for minimal strike improvement, and sell a put side against for a credit that exceeds the price to roll the tested side.
NASDAQ:NDX
by NaughtyPines
KC shortUpdate on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal. I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady. Warehouse stocks in EU and US plenty as well. Dont get me wrong, as shown in the blue channel, even if we have a correction lower, the blue trend channel might indicate a change in trend, however the frost damage is simply not there and in order to rally, this market would need breaking news like that.... without anything of that sort coming out, I see a correction lower before making new highs. Still, knowing coffee, I remain short with 1x2 calendar spreads, buying the downside 1 leg in one month and selling 2 lower puts in a month further back.
KShort
by mjhillpp
2
No frost in BrazilSeems like no frost in Brazil. It was a busy weeks last week and throughout the weekend with fears a frost could hit coffee areas. None has been confirmed and worst fears did not play out. Once all of this is digested I expect some downside opportunities as the market goes back into trading technicals rather than emotions. Quite oversold and we saw sell signals on RSI and Stochastik a while ago. Also, the 5 hour chart will provide with a sell signal, which has been a superb indicator of short term price action (5-10 days). I am short via 1x2 calendar put spreads, long the 135s in Q and short the 125s in U and various other like this. As we move lower, option vega will come in and provide some nice profits. Also, selling the Sep (U16) contract provides with some good premium as this is considered the frost month. Looking at futures spreads, they have been weak the past two trading sessions and also foreshadow price action. Support at 134, then nothing until 125
KShort
by mjhillpp
5
Rising wedge, but for now running into supportAs we see some support is coming in from our longer term trend channel as well as the lower Bbands. So far the last three weeks have provided with the expected sideways action once reaching 50. Selling calls has been the right strategy so far (51, 52 and 53 calls). At this support I am covering my short calls, but will hold of selling any put spreads to see how the FOMC decision plays out. I would not be surprised to see no rate hike and crude test some downside targets. For now, neutral, but getting ready to sell some downside put spreads once we breach the support (if we do)
NYMEX:CL1!
by mjhillpp
Generated buy/cover signals on RSI StochastikGold bounced off of the support area for now Light volume during recent bounce indicates this is a retracement in the downtrend --> I threw in some Fibs to indicate where overhead resistance lies. Resistance at: - 7 day MA (currently there); a break would suggest the 20 day MA or the 38% FIb as target (1240ish) - 23% Fib at 1224, 38% Fib at 1240 Overall: the lack of volume on the bounce indicates the lows might be tested again as the downtrend is still prevailing. Took advantage of the break the last 5 days, but covering my short puts now I dont have any sells signals yet, hence I am not doing anything until I see some
COMEX:GC1!
by mjhillpp
Change buy from neutral as strong support was found on trendlinePro Long: - Trend line provided massive support (dark red line) - High volume at support and during the rally - future spreads very strong (N16-U16 turned into backwardation) - If we close positive today 7 MA will cross 20 MA generating buy signal Contra Long: - running into resistance on middle Bollinger Band (20 day MA) I sold the 2900 puts last week as a sideways prediction was put in place and will keep that position and add once I see a pull back into the lower trend line
CLong
by mjhillpp
Still waiting, beware bulls; risk reward not so greatPro Long (Chart): - RSI and Stochastik created buy signal - Orange support line Pro Long (Physical): - ICE warehouse stocks new lows - spreads tightening ever so slightly Contra (Chart): - still in middle to upper end of trend channel - room to go in terms of lower Bollinger band - long term trend still down - risk/reward for long position not there IMHO I start looking into selling put spreads out in August or September. For example the U16 110/100 p spread. Due to the negative put skew, 1x2s also work great IMHO (selling the one buying the 2s are also an interesting idea).
K
by mjhillpp
Note quite yet, KC longCoffee nearing the orange support line around 122 (2nd month continuation, about 119-120 front month ). Interesting fact about this correction lower from 134 to 122 is that this is the first time in a couple years that we actually have an up-sloping support line (orange line). If the orange support holds this could mark a longer term trend reversal. On the downside further targets remain the lower Bbands as well as the previous lows around 113. IMHO selling put spreads out in Sep16 might be a good risk reward once we reach the orange line (U16 110/100 p spread). The U provides some decent premium over the other contracts as this is the frost scare month.
K
by mjhillpp