How the Hero Lock Itself Up Into A SELL SELL SELLGopro (NASDAQ: $GPRO) is down 28% since hitting a peak in the first week of October. A lock up withdrawal of 5.8M to start a charity was a signal that more "downside" was to come. On December 23, just about every share remaining in the lock up (borrowed money) will be made public, thus flooding the market with supply; driving the price down even further. Lean into the Puts two months out. Once Earnings is over, there might be a valuation adjustment to set a fair market value on the market. I'll close when I see a peak gain at 100% in profits. But til then I'm Bearish with a Full House Of Puts, so far in my favor. Read the article in the Business Insider for an explanation on borrowing for shares.
Put
USD/GBP - Short Setup Developing - 1.70 Sept Puts Idea is simple:
1. Wait for market to recover to 1.7116 - 23
2. Buy September Put Options with a strike of 1.70 (personal preference)
3. Wait
Rules:
1. If market proceeds to make a new high above the 1.7190 High on the 15th of July.... Close position.
Why am I using options?:
1. Risk is fixed.
2. Greater leverage because we are expecting a SHARP selloff from this set up, not simply a drift.
2 for 1 on YahooYahoo has produced two high probability patterns that would fit well in a bearish channel. The cypher (purple) formed right after the rejection candle at $32.17 at the 1.27 extension measured from the X to A leg. Price also put in a double top at $39.64. A Gartley pattern (red) shortly appeared right after. The kill zone for the bearish Gartley pattern is at $38.33 at the .786 retracement measured from X to A. There's also confluence at $38.47 1.27 extension level measured from C to B leg of the Gartley. When there is confluence, there's strong resistance/support. I'm looking to short the gartley (red), and if price action heads up a little higher into the Cypher (purple), i'll scale in another size.
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AKG - Gold sector starting to shine fundamentalllyThe gold sector has been rather sanguine of late and considering the lack luster performance of the underlying, that sector under performance is understandable. I believe there are areas within the gold space that are starting to offer 'value' investors some very interesting propositions. The great part of 'value' investing is we are often presented ideas when nobody else is interested. In fact, for one reason or another, the public is generally selling when we are thinking of buying. Because we are buying 'value' (and not too concerned about day to day fluctuations) we seem to get lots of time to accumulate our positions. Once these names put in 'technical' bottoms (which seem to come around our 'value' levels but can take some time to develop) price seems to take off very quickly. Anxiety can get high during those breakouts and FOMO can often lead to poor trade location decisions. So the question is, as 'value' investors what's the most efficient way to be a shareholder? Interestingly, Options by far are the most efficient way of become a stockholder but very few in the public understand how they work. Put-option-writes are, in my opinion, the only way investors should ever take long positions in large cap stocks. Not only does one buy the stock with the Put-option-write (keep in mind we fully expect to get exercised) but we also get to take advantage of bearish sentiment (through inflated premiums). Indeed, the case for writing options gets even more compelling if you understand how the modern day brokerage system works. If you chose to hold the position on margin in your brokerage account, you can literally collect enough of that bearish sentiment premium to pay the margin requirement to hold the stock indefinitely (as long as it stays 'option eligible') and get a little bit extra too - my 'get paid to buy stock' scenario....Here then above is a graphical demonstration of the WDB model in action. The model suggested we could get paid $3.10 by writing the August, 2014 $5.00 Put. If done and exercised, the margin requirement to hold the $5.00 position would be $1.50 (30% of underlying). Keep in mind, we were paid $3.10 (more than a 200% premium) ahead of time....Target to sell half the position is double our cash cost price ($3.80) which should create a 'risk free' trade on the remaining shares. That level seems achievable considering it is well below the natural 38.2 Fib & 200 week sma.
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