Put Call - Protection DecliningThe New Bull Market... feeble at present.
FUF Day for VIX, no shortage of ITM Calls.
No approaching storms...
All is well....
Putcall
⚠️ VERY TELLING SIGN!! READ OR PAY THE PRICE 😉Now we see that the SPY has made over 12% drawdown since it major top in 04JAN22. Currently the correction in the Nasdaq Composite reached -19.72% peak to trough while the Russell 2000 came off -21.44%.
This is the largest correction in the general market since the Covid crash in March of 2020.
However, this indicator is a sign that we might not be out of the woods yet. What is telling us that? Well the buying patterns of traders and institutions.
The Put-Call ratio is barely in the neutral level, which suggest that the participants in the markets have not been buying puts (aka equivalent to selling short) just yet. When they do, things can get really ugly. /for the chart we look at 10D SMA of the PCall ratio on the Daily timeframe/
This together with the high VIX should be more than enough to keep you on the sidelines.
REMEMBER CASH IS A POSITION and if you were in our free discord service you would have already been out by 13JAN
Bitcoin situation based on Options flowBitcoin is trading recently in clearly visible Trading Range, keeping investors nervous and asking question - is it Distribution or Accumulation? From Daily Timeframe we see in general Positive/Bullish sentiment from Options Traders, but it's not fully confirmed by the market yet. Going into more detailed M30, we see recent signals of incoming demand to the market identified by VSA Scanner in form of Selling Climax and Climactic Shakeout. Also Volume Area (blue rectangle on the chart identified also by Scanner) is retested from the top (top edge on 45945) what adds fuel for Bulls.
From Daily Chart we could observe also equal ratio of Put and Call options what happened several times on level 46105. This is currently our major support which needs to be kept if Bullish tendence should continue be present on BTC. From Related Idea about BTC, you can remember that level 50000 is strong Put Wall. Billions of dollars are loaded into Options with Strike Price above 50k. Around area of 50k also we have present Supply Zone (red rectangle), therefore we can expect Bullish run up to that level, then correction most likely to happen. And here will come decisive moment for both camps - Bulls and Bears. We also have present Virgin VPOC on 54890 from beginning of December, what is another confluence factor for Long.
And what only worries me, is Virgin VPOC from 30th September on 43100, which is the level below the current price (for the moment of writing analysis). Let's make some popcorn and see what happens next ;) Here comes handly VSA Scanner script, which will at earliest possibility warn us before potential Supply signals and Bears entering the market.
Options Data forecasting turning points and key levelsOptions are major weapon (if properly used) in toolset of Trader. Billions of dollars each day are floating on market and speculation here is an art. Art performed by Big Guys (aka Smart Money), where funds are often significantly higher in comparison to Futures Market. With help of Machine Learning algorithms, I load Options Flow data, parse and analyse it and extract to Quandl Dataset. From there, I load it via API to Tradingview and display results in indicators. And I trade with edge instruments from Futures Market.
This data doesn't need to be always used on Intraday timeframes. We can't forget about Big Picture aka Context. From D1 timeframe alongside with properly parsed Options Data, we're able to identify real key levels (not by using Price Action but by using Balance Points, where Volume of CALL options is equal to Volume of PUT options) - marked on DAX chart with red horizontal lines. Those are close prices of candles, on which indicator identified Balance Points (blue background on indicator). Demand always is trying to reach balance with Supply - therefore that's why it's even more important to observe such levels. I personally love to play retests of those levels and breakouts - especially when they happen after at least few days since initial Balance Point.
We can't forget about Pressure. Who is dominating at the market? This is the question that traders are asking themselves each session. Based on multiple factors, like: Put/Call Ratio, Strike Prices and Expirations of Options, Volume put on Options, Type of Options (ATM, ITM or OTM) - Machine Learning is allocating weigh ratio to those factors and return result identified on indicator by green/red area. Bigger Area show stronger Imbalance on market (aka one side dominates the market).
We have so many data around us, sorry - tons of data! We are unable to parse it and get insights manually. Here Machine Learning comes handy. I encourage you to deep dive into Options Market and combine it with picture, that Market draws you via chart. Market is based on emotions, so play what you see from moves of Big Players - which in majority believe me - are present on Options market.
Wrong Side of the Boat, Folks!Based on the US equity options Put/Call, most traders are on the wrong side of the boat heading into tomorrow's (quad-witch) opex. Hold on to your hats, folks!
Tutorial: PC-Indicator - Spar_maDeutsche Version Unterhalb.
English version:
This indicator is supposed to be another tool to recognize when a panic movement has begun and also ended. Of course, there are other indicators that work very well, but this can also help to identify the timeframe.
Description of for using the indicator with the example of the panic sell-off in March:
Before the selloff started, two areas can be identified in which the market is being tested. This is when at the same time, the price intersects with the 21 moving average and the put / call indicator. This indicates that something could be wrong (no guarantee, just an indicator). This happened first (marked with 1) when the virus was discovered: Few who had been informed had any idea what might happen. The second "drop" (marked 2) happened when it was publicly announced that such a virus existed. The third time the panic broke out (marked 3) long after the virus was known. The portfolios should have been hedged here at the latest. Shortly before the yellow marking the virus was reported daily and maximum panic were spread. This was the point at which the hedge could theoretically be ended (if you have the courage to do so). However, I myself waited until the 21st and the indicator were clearly broken.
This indicator could have helped to save a loss in value of the portfolio by at least 17%. I hope this indicator can continue to perform as well.
Please leave a like and subscribe if you are interested in further trading ideas from me.
Name of the indicator: “PC-Indicator - Spar_ma”
That’s my opinion and should be treated like it.
No trade advice!
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Deutsche Version:
Dieser Indikator soll ein weiteres Tool sein um erkennen zu können, wann eine panische Bewegung beendet ist. Natürlich gibt es weitere Indikatoren die sehr gut funktionieren, dieser kann jedoch zusätzlich dabei helfen zu erkennen wann es soweit ist.
Beschreibung des Indikators an Beispiel des Panischen sell-offs im März:
Bereits vor beginn sind zwei Bereiche zu erkennen, an denen der Markt getestet wird. Dabei kreuzen sich gleichzeitig der Kurs mit dem 21-gleitendem Durchschnitt und dem Put-/Call- Indikator. Das lässt darauf zurückführen, dass etwas kommen könnte. Dies geschah zuerst (mit 1 gekennzeichnet) bei der Entdeckung des Virus: Wenige die Informiert wahren, jedoch ahnten was passieren könnte. Der zweite „Drop“ (mit 2 gekennzeichnet) geschah als öffentlich bekannt gegeben wurde, dass ein solches Virus existiert. Beim dritten Mal brach die Panic aus (mit 3 gekennzeichnet), lange nachdem dieser Virus bekannt gewesen war. Spätestens hier sollte das Konto gehedged worden sein. Erst kurz vor der gelben Markierung wurde täglich vom Virus berichtet und maximale Panic verbreitet. Dies war der Zeitpunkt an dem theoretisch der Hedge beendet werden konnte (wenn man den Mut dazu hat). Ich selbst habe allerdings noch gewartet bis der 21ger und auch der Indikator klar durchbrochen wurde.
Dieser Indikator hätte dabei helfen können einen Wertverlust des Kontos um mindestens 17% ersparen zu können. Ich hoffe dieser Indikator kann weiterhin so gut performen.
Bitte lasst ein like da und abonniert mich, falls Ihr Interesse an weiteren trading-ideen von mir habt.
Name des Indikators: “PC-Indicator – Spar_ma”
Dies ist nur meine persönliche Meinung und sollte auch so betrachtet werden.
Dies ist keine Handelsempfehlung.
