AAPL Looks Tough to Call But Resistance is ClearThe behemoth that is NASDAQ:AAPL is going to report earnings October 28th. Typically, most stocks experience a "pre-earnings run-up" with most of the gains in the options contracts being made before the earnings announcement. That is particularly true with tech companies.
With that in mind, the resistance level is going to come in around 153. That will be the level to watch post-earnings.
Puts
VZ short put, Nov 19VZ is into a level of tested demand
Sold 42 DTE, Nov 19, 11.59% AROI, 4.24% from underlying price
Yield at strike is a decent 4.78% which is way over the US10Y hurdle rate by 3x
It's pushing below the Feb 2021 spike low, but it seems to be very passive selling to me the past 6 months.
Lots of back filling and retracing to push lower. Like a robot is just refreshing the offer lower.
Trend on the daily is absolutely Down.
But it's into Previous demand and 53.40 level is where I see -1 sigma value where algos could step in to buy.
I don't mind being long VZ outright, but I like the idea of bidding for 52.50 even better.
Because if it goes to 51.55 I split the difference.
It's a down day into new lows and that's the best time to sell put premium, so I did.
D short put 70, 42 DTESold D 70 strike, 4.2% from underlying for 11.55% AROI
42 DTE.
Dividend at the strike is 3.6%
I'm not in weekly demand here to initiate the trade, which would be proximal at 70.
But It has found some support at the -1 sigma range level and going sideways.
And since this is a Theta decay, there's no telling how long it can stay sideways and expire a put.
I've passed on many opportunities to grab 9 to 12% and thought price could move lower, but it just went sideways for 2 months, and left good premium on the table.
Not great, but not terrible either.
I'm thinking it gets stuck sideways at the 72.75 support level.
The hourly has pushed up and found top of the local range at 75.
So maybe it goes sideways for a couple weeks without going down to test 70, which I fully think it will.
I doubt it can stay much below 70 for a long duration over about 2 days because the dividend would be over 2x what the US10Y yield is at that point.
And I don't think the US10Y gets over 1.7 without the Fed coming in to smash it back down artificially.
OHI Short Put Nov 19Sold OHI short put 42 DTE, Nov 19, 28 strike
5.72% from underlying price, 15.52% AROI
Assignment yield at strike is 9.57%, so I'd be happy with that.
Price is reacting to a zone where buyers have rallied from before. So I'm just at the Nov 2020 lows on strike.
I think about if I would've just bought OHI last Halloween and held it for 10% cash payout. I'd be right back to par today on capital value, but 10% more cash.
UGH, I regret not being more aggressive last year.
If OHI doesn't stick the landing below 28, then I'm happy with 15% AROI also and an extra 5%
Already have a bag of OHI in the Rollover IRA, but this is a taxable trade.
I like the high dividend yield, but with the whole Evergrande bullshit and Debt ceiling FUD, I am reluctant to take outright long positions, as is probably every fund manager in the world.
Overall, I think it's an asymmetric trade to the upside where I'm being paid 5% extra AROI to bid.
$SPY Bull Trap ? In the short term SPY broke out of the downward trend however break down below will signal a bull trap and anticipate a move back down 427 zone.
Overly long so I want the resistance to now act as support. Perhaps consolidate even for next move up.
Hedging with 10/15 436P nonetheless . Big OPEX next week, see what they do with that coupled with a miss on jobs data (bullish IMO).
Good Luck Traders : )
Energy Sector Showing Inverted Head and ShouldersAMEX:XLE
Scanning through the sectors I noticed something quite clear, an inverted head and shoulders with a possible retest playing out. This is supported by the laguerre rsi below. I'm expecting prices for XLE to go higher and potentially confirm a megaphone pattern.
SPY Breaking Critical Technical LevelAMEX:SPY
An update on the SPY Chart shows continuing bearishness. We are not getting back to the 0 line on our upper indicator and falling further below our current level on that indicator would be a very bad sign for the market.
Inflation doesn't seem like it's going away and crypto may be showing itself as an inflation hedge.
MARKET ALPHA - SPY UPDATEAMEX:SPY
For those that are following this chart... You would have been well aware of the weakness the market was showing overall. After a bounce higher, we were never recovering on our Laguerre RSI. The explosive move to the downside today was flagged by the weakness in that indicator.
I would totally have posted yesterday but It was my girlfriends birthday so I was getting everything ready for that. Stay safe out there in there in this market. It could be the beginning of the market finally rolling over.
$UPS trade the box breakout Darvas MethodPossible good short idea with a break below the box $189/188 zone. I like the R/R on the short side with a volume pocket indicating a possible free fall to $180 .... Juicy
Bulls have been defending this spot however and could also move back up towards top of the box. Watch for a break to the upside to go long. Short side invalidated if box holds.
Essentially Nicolas Darvas method (box break out trading) Great book if you haven't read it.
Alerts set :)
Analyzing My Part Time Employer - UBERNYSE:UBER
Is a great way to make money part time, especially if you can do it to invest that money in to the market.
Why do I do Uber?
That's simple... I do not trade with money I cannot afford to lose. I love investing but I also love paying my debts. Unlike China... ok that was pretty weak.
Anyway... This demonstrates buying the wrong break out and what can happen if you are caught in that zone. The strength looks good with a massive upside especially in an economy where work culture is beginning to shift dramatically and the gig economy is becoming more of a household choice rather than a regular side job.
I am long on $UBER as long as regulations stay in favor of the gig economy, but is imperative that we break above our upper wedge resistance for a more sustained breakout move.
$CELH Short IdeaTook profits on my longs and flipped short (10/15 $85 Put) on Celsius .
Appears to be a top channel rejection with a pretty bearish engulfing candle. Small volume pocket below bears and profit taking could easily push this to $79. Bearish confluence on indicators as well.
Just praying reddit doesn't mention the ticker and it pumps to $500 : )