Should traders buy Puts at All Time Highs?Many traders I talk to on social media are buying Put Options as the market grinds higher. Is this a good trade? Yes, it can be, with discipline...
Puts
SPY Channel SpottingMake sure you are ready for whatever comes next!! Don't be fooled... Either way!! AMEX:SPY
Get in the Zone: the Lotto ZoneIf any of you are up for a gamble, this is a good play for a short position / long puts. AZO has had a monster rally and is starting to wind back to some pre-pandemic support levels I believe. Now this is a good company, but the stock will get caught up in a mess of short-term declines in the Retail Trade sector and this one has far to fall and a well-defined area of support to work off of.
Some solid indicators are saying this is well over-bought and flashing the sell signal. This means we may have reached the peak of it's new consolidation area and will begin grinding down to find the bottom. Thankfully we have a triple-top to tell us where that bottom will ultimately be. Options are expensive for shares this pricey, and bid-ask spread is huge, so maybe just an old-fashioned short is your ticket.
Short HD; you can do it, I can help.A couple of indicators are showing divergence for the past week or so, as HD has melted up choppily. It needs some relief and is being sustained by erstwhile investors scrambling for a safe investment in a volatile bond market when the banks can't be counted on to manage their risk. I'd suspect that this could continue a little bit, but within the next week or so as the market changes again this should take a pounding.
Note the marked divergences and the weakness of the indicators after we passed the shaded area. Today might well be the double top we need to leg it down.
The way I see it, the weak technical picture hides an interesting scenario; bond yields calm, money flows back into more conditional investments like tech (this will keep happening to a lesser extent everytime yields 'decline' and consolidate) and away from HD. Bond yields increase and the market panics. Bond yields stay the same and people go back to their riskier bets. In all scenarios HD and other builder, stocks decline in the interum. Perhaps they'll pickup before earnings but they need price discovery now.
WHR: Extreme Bearish DivergenceWhirlpool showing extreme bearish divergence in multiple mid-term timeframes on multiple indicators. Semiconductors used in Microwaves and Appliances are infamously unavailable, and this is sure to affect whirlpool's outlooks despite favorable macroeconomic conditions and stock rotation. The entire sector related to homebuilders is due for a drawback, and despite a p/e of <13 I think WHR will feel it worse.
SPY Rounded TopsLooks like some rounded tops here on the SPY
Other indices have bearish patterns as well
AMEX:SPY
SOS possible retest of 4$ before running up againSOS looks kind of weak and beaten down it probably will retest previous levels of resistance around 4$.
Be careful out there the whole market doesn't look solid today.
BA Correction!Hello Community!
Before we begin HATE IT OR LOVE IT please support my idea with a thumbs up and a comment. It'll be greatly appreciated!
When taking a look at BA we can see it trading in an ascending parallel channel. It has currently reached the top and is looking to aim lower to the next support which is the 55 EMA. If the 55 EMA fails we can expect it test the bottom of the channel before bouncing and moving higher. The RSI is showing over bought, and the Mac D is showing bearing signs. With the Quadruple Witching happening tomorrow it makes for a perfect storm to move lower with increased volatility but that's just my guess.
This is not Financial advice.
Safe Trading Calculate Your Risk/Reward & Collect!
Simplicity Wins
Buying FCX 19 MAR 21 28 PUTI'm expecting price to hold this current resistance on the 4H.
If price breaks above current resistance, then I will close these contracts for a loss and salvage what I can from the position.
My profit target is around $28.
So, why $28? Because price has already checked the $33 - $30 price level noted by the check mark. I think price could move lower to the next price level around $28 noted by the down arrow.
Purchasing BB Puts with 12 Mar expI expect price to break through previous support after being rejected at the current resistance. It's possible that price will move to $7.78 and $7.34 within the next 2 weeks.
Therefore, I purchased 12 MAR 21 8 PUTs. I plan to sell these contracts at market value, if they make it to speculated price level.
A Wish for a Put!I think a Wish meme is all I need for a reason to justify the Put I entered. Can't give full analysis since I'm teaching at the moment. Let's see what happens!
I Originally marked this up on the Daily so the current support zone is really around $26-$27. I just need a few pennies off of the retracement if the market follows my order!
Strike Price: $26.82
What do you think?
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-Amateur Robinhood Trader lol
$TSLA Double TOP Very Bearish. Will probably correct and retest.600s are most likely inbound by Friday. It has failed to hold support and in a clear bear trend on the hour charts.
Once it bounced off the 760 opened a call OTM and made almost $300 and as soon as I saw the reverse i closed out. Opened $780 put at $786.60 exp. 2/26.
Will be riding it down to and will pick up a call for the quick up trends to scalp!
Have fun boys and girls!
SPX500-Bear Setup (Update)This is an updated trade plan based on my last published trade setup (SPX500-Bear Setup)-posted yesterday. Just reading price structure and making some adjustments on where I think this correction might end. 3870 is going to be descent support and would complete a measured abc move from the local top. This would give us the correction we need to proceed to 4k+....nothing has changed with my longterm view on sp. We are still in a very strong uptrend and have key fib extensions at 3960 & 4k+. Please let me know if you have any questions but for now im leaning towards taking most of my profit @387 may lets some ride just depends. Thanks, and Happy Trading!
Public Storage Put?Price is currently testing a resistance zone. Looking for a retracement of previous low up to 61% of fibonnaci. On the 4 hour I see a W pattern that is finishing up hopefully which would trigger a pullback.
Strike Price: $230.34
What do you think?
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Brookfield Asset Management Put?Financials haven't been so great. Some consolidation going on. Price is currently at a resistance zone. Looking for a retracement of the previous low before it may continue up....IF IT DOES. Used pivot points (orange triangles) to show pattern and relationship from resistance to support.
Let me know what you think
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Strike Price: $39.27
Shorting MACY's into the earnings :) I am Shorting MACY's into the earnings via PUTS for mid March. Overall brick and mortar retail has NOT comeback yet and NYC is a ghost town. Macy's is the next JC Penny's, they are not there yet but are due for a pull back. Momentum and Volume have been no where in sight over the last week for this stock and its sitting at a 1 year high.. I am no genius but I would assume that its due for a fall. to $12's maybe even $10's if the market over reacts. I am betting against the trend here so I am taking a less risky approach by shorting via PUT contracts for mid march which will give the earnings a chance to sell off. I am operating under the assumption that because of my above points, that the earnings will be a missed target. I picked up some $16.50 PUT contracts for Mid March.
SPY Correction! Bearish Volume DivergenceAMEX:SPY
The chart shows a decrease in volume over the past 6 trading days as SPY has surged to ATH's. I think not only is the market due for a correction but SPY/QQQ are demonstrating similar charts. Today I will be looking to enter some 2/19 386 Puts today. I will be looking for a possible bounce in the 388 range and if that fails then I think we see lower. If we bounce at 388 and reclaim 390 I will be out. As a swing trade I would like to see us gravitate to the LVN at 385/384 range.
*Past 4 days of volume show two bearish days that each have more volume than the two bullish day. Something to keep an eye on, will be watching today's volume.
Cisco Put?Company Profile:
Cisco Systems, Inc. engages in the design, manufacture, and sale of Internet Protocol based networking products and services related to the communications and information technology industry. The firm operates through the following geographical segments: the Americas, EMEA, and APJC. Its product comprises of the following categories: Switches, Routers, Wireless, Network Management Interfaces and Modules, Optical Networking, Access Points, Outdoor and Industrial Access Points, Next-Generation Firewalls, Advanced Malware Protection, VPN Security Clients, Email, and Web Security. The company was founded by Sandra Lerner and Leonard Bosack on December 10, 1984 and is headquartered in San Jose, CA. The listed name for CSCO is Cisco Systems, Inc. Common Stock (DE).
Financials (Comparison vs Microsoft)
Competitors: Zoom, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services
There are 7 things I compare when researching stocks. I make sure I find at least 2 strong competitors for the best analysis I can give! I only post 1 comparison for the sake of time.
1. Return on Investment Capital
2. Price to Book Ratio
3. Price to Earnings Ratio
4. Net Margin%
5. Return on Total Assets
6. Return on Equity
7. Earnings per Share
1. ROIC
Company: Cisco
2020 22.84%
2021 21.33%
Company: Microsoft
2020 23.56%
2021 26.05%
2. P/B Ratio
Company: Cisco
2020 5.18
2021 4.30
Company: Microsoft
2020 13.02
2021 14.02
3. P/E Ratio
Company: Cisco
2020 17.20
2021 15.76
Company: Microsoft
2020 35.31
2021 36.04
4. Net Margin %
Company: Cisco
2020 22.75%
2021 18.22%
Company: Microsoft
2020 30.96%
2021 35.90%
5. Return on Total Assets
Company: Cisco
2020 11.64%
2021 11.16%
Company: Microsoft
2020 15.06%
2021 17.48%
6. ROE
Company: Cisco
2020 31.37%
2021 28.83%
Company: Microsoft
2020 35.31%
2021 42.70%
7. Diluted EPS (Recent Two Quarters)
Company: Cisco
Q4 0.62
Q1 0.51
Company: Microsoft
Q1 1.82
Q2 2.03
Fundamental Analysis
To keep things simple, I like this stock for a PUT due to their market competitors. They are in competition with some other big dogs in the industry who have better financials than Cisco in my opinion. After looking at their financials the main thing I noticed in comparison with Zoom and Microsoft was the NET MARGIN%. Cisco ranged from 22.75% to 18.22% while Microsoft (15.06 %to 17.48%). These were yearly comparisons and it tells me that Cisco isn't profiting as much as they could be compared to other market leaders.
Technical Analysis
Stochastic RSI: White line is above the green line which means price is overbought while also being in a resistance zone.
Fibonnaci: Ranged from the potential "Current Resistance Zone" to the "New Support Zone". I'm looking for a retracement of the previous low being $43.72. I'm expecting a retracement of anywhere between 30% and lower.
MacD Squatter: White line is still above the zero line but momentum is losing on smaller time frames.
Current Price:$ After Hours $49.50
Strike Price: $45.37 and lower if lucky.
Stop Loss: $55.11
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Let's talk about it!
- Amateur Robinhood Trader lol
LI Breaking DownLI breaking out of the wedge moving down
Bought puts here
Target somewhere near the green line.
-10% move
Risk to reward 1:3
