Puts
Options Idea: Sell The September 18, 2020 Put @ $1.3ALRM seems to have stopped its downward trend. It has recovered the EMA 8 and is heading back to EMA 20 territory. I sold a Sep 18 2020 55.0 Put @ 1.3 with the idea that the uptrend will continue over the next few days or weeks.
20-ALRM-01
Opening Date: August 20, 2020
Expiration Date: September 18, 2020
DTE: 29
IV: 44%
IV Percentile: 37%
Odds of Winning: 68%
Win: > 53.70 @ Expiration
Loss: < 53.70 @ Expiration
Chart Legend
The green area represents 100% win zone.
The yellow area is a win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in.
The red area is loss.
1 SD, 2 SD, 3 SD projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
Sell Calls and Sell PutsGood evening all,
Our levels have stayed steady. I believe that the price will not move much the upcoming month. If you would like to add revenue to your positions sell covered calls and puts. You can collect a nice premium while we wait for movement later on.
PLUG power price action forecast for next week!Our cycles analysis indicates the following forecast for price action this upcoming week! Will be utilizing 10$ strike Put and 13$ strike Call options for 8/21 and 8/28, respectively!!
Ultimately headed to 22-25$ per share by end of September 2020 in our view!!
Let us know your views in the comments below!!
Bad Apple - AAPLAccording to the news, Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) shares sold off today as well as other tech stocks and supposedly dragged the S&P 500 down with them. As crazy as that sounds, I have come to accept that the markets are, as always, unpredictable. Banks stocks on the other hand were in the Green. Let's follow AAPL and see if the SPY continues to follow AAPL further down the rabbit hole. I would be interested to see if we pullback to the 21 EMA or if it blows past it. I am leaning long only because I think SPY wants to retest the all time high of 339.08, and more than likely, that will require all of the heavy hitters, APPL included to pull higher to get there.
short P&G in the supply zone Here's the trade setup
1. PG is in a supply zone denoted in the red colour
2. Earnings is in a couple days which makes for an easy catalyst to turn this around from all time highs
3. There's a triangle pattern formed over past 4 months (see attached link) and these tend to have aggressive breaks
4. I am bearish the general market so that should further support a bearish move
5. Since brokerages are raising price targets in a supply zone, I would like to take a contra call
Strategy: bought october month puts @ 125 strike price for a target in the yellow zone. But, one can always be a little more greedy and wait for the move all the way down to the demand zone (green)
SPCE Daily Higher timeframes show SPCE going to $29.00. If we can hold $25 then SPCE will go to $29 but on the lower timeframes I can see a pull back to around $23.60.
SPY analysis here is a brief analysis of SPY 1D chart.. big week of earnings ahead, let's see what is in store for the market!
How I see SPY Playing Out in the Near TermI recently read the first half of technical analysis of the financial markets, and I noticed that SPY had formed a perfect double bottom reversal pattern. Additionally, SPY has broken overhead resistance at 312-313, returned back and it acted as support. Now we will see a final push upward to fill the gap near 323. This may continue higher to close the last gap overhead from the February 19 drop.
In the near term, I think we have a bit of a melt up (not like tesla though), to sucker in more FOMO and buyers. Then we see a 15% pull back to close the gap below at 280.....Queue round 2 of fiscal stimulus, and go long with 1/15/21 calls SPY 400, QQQ 300, TSLA
Looking back at major movements in SPY I have noticed an odd pattern of dates that are 9th, 19th, 29th being the beginning of a major reversal in trends.
Feb 19th, we all know that date, beginning of free fall
(more dates below)
Not financial advice, more for my own record keeping and being held accountable for ideas. Happy to discuss the book if anybody is interested, I have found it quite useful as of late.
Tesla- Waiting for a pullbackTSLA soared to all time highs this week... and though it would be fun to jump in on the action, it just feels like Iwould be entering no man's land to be bullish on TSLA at such a high price. I am going to be watching for a pull back somewhere between the 13 and 21 EMA over the next 7 to 10 days. What goes up, usually comes down. This is one that I will be waiting for in the days to come.
BA Puts signalCalled BA in the group chat at 186.07
Target for BA is 171 to fill the gap
This put is for the short term so about a week or 2 depending on market
The group chat is having a 20% sell for the 4th of july ( Use coupon code: "July4" ) and will go on until sunday the 5th. I would , love to see anyone who supports my posts join our group and make even more money with us as we grow richer and richer by the day: If your interested join through DMing me
All you'll have to do is join the discord, then go to free chat room and type upgrade and set up your membership.
And of course Direct message me with any questions you have!
Sad story for the frequent trader $FB$FB has room to volume with Friday performance along with the rest of last week’s. The name is getting weaker and weaker as it continues to make no changes to its platform to support a movement. Turn advertisers away from the platform to something like $TTD, $ROKU and others.
TSLA Puts and Short on the menuBought 1 TSLA Put 400 18/09 yesterday at $1007
Let's wait and see.
I am a small fish. Hopefully bulls don't learn to swim.
Not financial advice.
The whole market needs a chill pill.
Trader's Guide to Options Part 2The information in this guide is intended to get you started with your understanding of options, the terminology, and their basic characteristics. In addition to this guide, it is recommended that you study all information available under the education section of your broker’s website. Most brokers who cater to options traders provide good information that will help you learn.
Types of Options:
Call Options:
Call options increase in value when the underlying stock rises.
Buyers of calls have the right, without any obligation, to buy the underlying stock at the strike of the options contract. They retain their right until the option no longer exists, defined by the expiration date.
Call buyers anticipate the value of the underlying stock will rise. When it does, the value of the option will also increase at approximately the rate of the Delta. Buyers pay for the right to buy the stock in the future, sometime before expiration of the option. When buying the option, they pay the ask price. The premium they pay is less than buying the stock, yet they will still benefit from any appreciation in the value of the stock.
Say you wanted to buy XYZ stock because you think it is going to move up from its current price of $84. Instead of buying the stock a trader could buy a call option for a fraction of the price of the stock. Remember, all the trader is doing is buying the right to buy the stock without any obligation to actually buy it. The option only costs $4.00 for the right to buy the stock at some future date. Buying 1,000 shares of the stock would require $84,000 but buying 10 options contracts would only cost $4,000.
Call Options – The Sellers…
Sellers of call options are selling to someone else the right to buy the underlying stock from them. When/if the buyer chooses to buy the stock from the seller, (remember, the buyer has no obligation to do so) it is referred to as an exercise…the buyer is exercising the right to buy the stock. The seller is obligated to deliver the stock to the buyer. A seller’s obligation ends when the stock is exercised, the option expires, or the option is bought to close (BTC).
Call sellers receive a premium from the buyer. The buyer is paying the seller for the right to buy the stock in the future. Sellers want the price of the stock to go down. Why? If the price goes down, the buyer will have no reason to exercise since they could buy the stock for less at the current market price. In this case, the seller gets to keep the premium paid by the buyer.
So, what does this mean in plain English? The concept of a call option is present in many situations. For example, you discover a painting that you would love to purchase. Unfortunately, you will not have the cash to buy it for another two months. You talk to the owner and negotiate a deal that gives you an option to buy the painting in two months for a price of $1,000. The owner agrees, and you pay the owner a premium of $50 for the right to buy the painting.
Consider two possible scenarios that can impact the value of this “option”:
Scenario 1: It is discovered that the back of the painting has a signature of a famous artist, which drives the value of the painting up to $10,000. Because the owner sold you an option which gives you the right but no obligation to purchase the painting at the previously agreed price, he is obligated to sell the painting to you, the buyer, for $1,000. The buyer would make a profit of $8,950 ($10,000 value – $1,000 purchase price – $50 for the cost of the option).
Scenario 2: After closer review of the painting, it is discovered that the signature on the back is not of a famous artist, but is the brother of a famous artist. This actually drives the value of the painting down to $500. If the buyer exercised their option to purchase the painting it would cost $1,000. This would not make sense because the buyer could instead just buy it at “market price” for just $500. Since the buyer had no obligation to purchase based on the option contract, the agreement, or contract, would just expire and the buyer would lose the $50 premium paid.
The example demonstrates two important points. When you buy an option, you have a right, but not an obligation, to do something. You can always let the expiration date pass, at which point the option becomes worthless. If this happens, you lose 100% of your investment, which is the money you paid for the option.
Put Options
Put options increase in value when the underlying stock decreases in value.
Buyers of puts have the right, without any obligation, to “put” the underlying stock to someone else at the strike price of the options contract. They retain their right until they sell to close (STC) the option or it no longer exists, defined by the expiration date.
Put buyers anticipate the value of the underlying stock will go down. When it does, the value of the option will increase at approximately the rate of the Delta. Buyers pay a premium for the right to be able to put (sell) the stock to someone else in the future, sometime before expiration of the option. When buying the option, they pay the ask price.
Say you thought XYZ stock is going to move down from its current price of $84. Buying a put with a strike of $85 gives the buyer the right in the future to sell or put the stock to someone else at $85. So, if the stock declined to $75, the buyer of the option could buy the stock at $75 and immediately exercise their right to sell/put the stock at $85, making a $10 profit. Remember, all the trader is doing is buying the right but has no obligation.
Put Options – The Sellers…
Sellers of put options are selling to someone else the right to sell/put the underlying stock to them. When/if the buyer chooses to put their stock to the seller, this is referred to as being assigned……the buyer of the put option is assigning the stock to the seller. The seller is obligated to buy the stock based on the strike price of the contract. A seller’s obligation ends when the option expires or the option is bought to close (BTC).
Put sellers receive a premium from the buyer. The buyer is paying the seller for the right to sell the stock to the seller in the future. Put sellers want the price of the stock to go up. Why? If the price goes up, the buyer will have no reason to assign the stock since they could sell the stock for more at the current market price. In this case, the seller gets to keep the premium paid by the buyer.
Exercise and Assignment
Most stocks and ETF’s are American style options. This means that if the buyer of an option chooses to exercise or assign their rights they may do so at any time prior to expiration.
Indexes such at SPX , NDX and RUT are European style options. This means that any exercise or assignment may only occur at expiration.
Who wins when the stock moves?
1. Buyers of Calls – win when the stock goes up
2. Sellers of Calls – win when the stock goes down
3. Buyers of Puts – win when the stock goes down
4. Sellers of Puts – win when the stock goes up
Are you new to options trading? Stay tuned for Part 3 of Trader's Guide to Options which will include in-the-money, at-the-money, and out-of-the-money options as well as the reality of trading.
Trader's Guide to OptionsThe information in this guide is intended to get you started with your understanding of #options, the terminology, and their basic characteristics. In addition to this guide, it is recommended that you study all information available under the education section of your broker’s website. Most brokers who cater to options traders provide good information that will help you learn.
What is an option?
An option is a financial contract between a buyer and a seller. It is an agreement to buy or sell the underlying equity (stock or index) at a set price by a pre-determined date. Instead of buying the stock a trader could buy an option for a fraction of the price of the stock.
Options have the following characteristics:
Traded as contracts and each contract represents 100 shares of the underlying stock or index.
Pre-set expiration dates. Standard monthly options expire the third Friday of each month. Some index options like TVC:RUT , TVC:SPX , and TVC:NDX cease trading on Thursday before the third Friday. Weekly options expire each Friday.
Price points, referred to as the strike price, are the prices at which buyers and sellers trade option contracts. Options are, usually, available to trade in standard price increments of $5 and $10.
Quotes to buy or sell an option are presented as the bid and ask. When selling an option, the bid price is used. When buying an option, the ask price is used. Sell the bid / Buy the ask.
Delta is the change in the value of an option relative to each $1.00 change in the value of the underlying stock. If an option has a Delta value of .45, it will change in value by 45 cents for each $1.00 change in the value of the stock.
- NASDAQ:GOOG is trading at 1445.
-The 1445 call strike has a Delta of .50
-GOOG goes down $10
-The 1445 call will decline in value by $5.00 = ( $10 * .50)
The Options Chain:
All option information for any stock or index is listed on an options chain. The options chain can be found on the website of the broker you use to trade. The chain will list all available strikes and expirations, the Delta, and the bid and ask prices. It will also display both Call and Put options.
Ways to trade Options:
There are four actions that could possibly be taken when trading options:
1. Buy To Open (BTO) - buying an option as part of opening a new position.
2. Sell To Open (STO) - selling an option as part of opening a new position.
3. Buy To Close (BTC) - buying back an option that was originally sold to open
4. Sell To Close (STC) - selling an option that was originally bought to open
When a position is Bought-To-Open, it is referred to as a long position .
When a position is Sold-To-Open, it is referred to as a short position .
When a position is Bought-To-Open, it is done for a debit .
When a position is Sold-To-Open, it is done for a credit .
Are you new to options trading? Stay tuned for Part 2 of Trader's Guide to Options which will include teaching about call and put options.
<- Direct link to chart image.
SE | Short Opportunity | 84 RSI | Overextended from EMA SE is highly oversold and has gained over 200% the three months.
Looking at RSI in the weekly chart, we see that the RSI has reached 84. This is the highest level it has achieved since its IPO.
Our second confirmation on oversold levels is that it is very far away from our 21 days moving average at $63.44. It has to at least bounce off the 21 EMA to reach new highs.
The fib retracement tells us that it a minimum of 38.2% retracement before it could go higher at $74.50. if the bounce occurs during this retracement, it might be combined with the 21 EMA.
Looking at the chart there is no healthy support level from $52.70 to $97, this means that the trend could be quickly snapped making bull take profit.
A second support level is $46.07, which is a more reliable level than 52.70.
SPY - Is support beneath the 21 Day EMA?What a wild ride its been for the markets! I am definitely having a beer after this week is over... but before we kick off the weekend, we have to take a look at the SPY.
As you all know, I like to look for trade setups when trending stocks pull back to their 21 daily exponential moving average. Today is no exception. SPY has been trending higher over the last 3 months and with the help of the last two days, the SPY has pulled back near it's 21 day moving average.
However, I am not entirely sure that this is a pull back opportunity that I would trade just yet. There is a previous resistance level resting just below the 21 day EMA, near 295. So, SPY could keep moving lower. Also, today is Friday, so taking and holding positions in SPY (or in anything for that matter) over the weekend is a bit risky given the current environment. Consider that next week could easily gap up or down in either direction by a few hundred points.
I would like to see what happens on Monday first. Have a great weekend everybody!
Don't Know If I Should Buy Calls, Or Puts LOLI think this still looks bullish, but I just don't know. There are no real indicators showing me that this has another spike. I am watching this one next week.
Short $ZM down to $160-$170 level (Just my opinion)My opinion only.
Shorting down to bottom of the channel.
Not investment advice.
LULU A Nice Short Here IMOMy opinion only.
Short LULU - Thesis of the idea is that it's run up $80+ pts the month of May. Rebalancing should see plenty of institutions selling beginning of June if not late today. Earnings on June 9th should also be underwhelming. ($100+ yoga pants with the amount of unemployment we have?)
Not investment advice.
LULU
Put/Call Ratio should climb herePCC, which is the driver of options sentimate is ready for a test to 1.0 which is a HUGE bearish indicator.
Everytime it got slightly faked out it came roaring to over 1.0. I am looking for this trend to continue.
When you overlay the PCC with S&P Futures I think its ready for a short oppurtunity. Looking for $SPY to finally come down to earth a bit and retest 280.
if your ambishious load 06/01's like me. I am fighting futures software and the fed pump here (LOL!)
