SE | Short Opportunity | 84 RSI | Overextended from EMA SE is highly oversold and has gained over 200% the three months.
Looking at RSI in the weekly chart, we see that the RSI has reached 84. This is the highest level it has achieved since its IPO.
Our second confirmation on oversold levels is that it is very far away from our 21 days moving average at $63.44. It has to at least bounce off the 21 EMA to reach new highs.
The fib retracement tells us that it a minimum of 38.2% retracement before it could go higher at $74.50. if the bounce occurs during this retracement, it might be combined with the 21 EMA.
Looking at the chart there is no healthy support level from $52.70 to $97, this means that the trend could be quickly snapped making bull take profit.
A second support level is $46.07, which is a more reliable level than 52.70.
Puts
SPY - Is support beneath the 21 Day EMA?What a wild ride its been for the markets! I am definitely having a beer after this week is over... but before we kick off the weekend, we have to take a look at the SPY.
As you all know, I like to look for trade setups when trending stocks pull back to their 21 daily exponential moving average. Today is no exception. SPY has been trending higher over the last 3 months and with the help of the last two days, the SPY has pulled back near it's 21 day moving average.
However, I am not entirely sure that this is a pull back opportunity that I would trade just yet. There is a previous resistance level resting just below the 21 day EMA, near 295. So, SPY could keep moving lower. Also, today is Friday, so taking and holding positions in SPY (or in anything for that matter) over the weekend is a bit risky given the current environment. Consider that next week could easily gap up or down in either direction by a few hundred points.
I would like to see what happens on Monday first. Have a great weekend everybody!
LULU A Nice Short Here IMOMy opinion only.
Short LULU - Thesis of the idea is that it's run up $80+ pts the month of May. Rebalancing should see plenty of institutions selling beginning of June if not late today. Earnings on June 9th should also be underwhelming. ($100+ yoga pants with the amount of unemployment we have?)
Not investment advice.
LULU
Put/Call Ratio should climb herePCC, which is the driver of options sentimate is ready for a test to 1.0 which is a HUGE bearish indicator.
Everytime it got slightly faked out it came roaring to over 1.0. I am looking for this trend to continue.
When you overlay the PCC with S&P Futures I think its ready for a short oppurtunity. Looking for $SPY to finally come down to earth a bit and retest 280.
if your ambishious load 06/01's like me. I am fighting futures software and the fed pump here (LOL!)
Raytheon (RTX) - Pull back or breakout?Here at YouCanTrade, we have been keeping watchful eye on defensive stock Raytheon NYSE:RTX , which has been trading below its 8 day EMA over the past 2 weeks of trading. The last two days of positive market activity has helped Raytheon pullback to its 21-day moving average, which could be a signal for taking a position in the direction of the downward trend. However, the option volume tells a slightly different story. The current call volume for RTX is 14,500 calls, largely outweighing the 5000 puts traded today. That is nearly 3 times as much volume on RTX calls than puts.
So, I am going to watch this trade idea and put it to the test.
As of 12 pm ET on May 19th, the RTX 59 strike puts expiring June 19th, 2020 are trading at a mid-price of $2.50. I am simply going to monitor the price change on this put option over the next few days to see who got it right. The bulls? or the bears?
$BAC Possible PUT OptionIt looks like $BAC (and the banks) are set for a lower session, and we could see $BAC move towards $21.....lets see what happens!!
.....Current BAC Aug 20 - 20 PUT are trading at 1.25 and are up 12%......#FranklinCap.....If you would like to see more of this from Franklin Capital hit the LIKE button and Follow Us!...Thanks!
(PS for those that looked at the Air Canada BUY yesterday....a cool 23% came your way!)
Bearish Outlook With Next Bounce Near $274-278Very simple chart. Things are going wild right now in the market and playing daily options may result in you getting burned. The Fed has shown with their unlimited QE that they are willing to do what's necessary to prop up our markets. That said, looking at the extremely low volume the past week, you can see everytime there is an influx in volume, the ticket begins trending down. I stated in a previous post how the resistance at $294 was going to be the turnaround point, although I will admit I didn't suspect the second double top to occur. That said, if you played had I mentioned with some long-dated Puts, you'd be swimming in cash right now.
This move down is a clear indication the .68 Fib level held as expected and the market is pulling back now. This will continue to happen until we reach the next support zone which is looking like won't come until we reach the .5 Fib retracement level. I will need to spend the day watching price movement to see if a buying opportunity will be present, but that will be the next buy-zone to watch for. If this leg down is a violent one, it's very much a possibility we dive through this zone with enormous volume.
For now, shorting to this area should be a relatively safe play to scalp some profit. Hope this chart gets more exposure than my last!
SPX SPY Confirmed Entering Wave Three Down (Edited Repost)Wanted to add my wave count for the rally we saw from 3/23 lows. We have formed a large ABC zigzag down from the ATH's in Feb, down to the 3/23 lows, then up to the 297 level (A and B). We are now entering wave C down, which can be broken up into subwaves.
Inside of the large ABC zigzag's wave C, this wave three should take us to 258 levels according to the length of wave one from out recent high at 297 to the 279 range.
There may be some support speedbumps along the way, 285, 279, 272, but 258 is the target according to basic elliot wave analysis and it has been extremely accurate lately.
Entered shorts during wave two up, and finalized my positions at 289.5.
We deviated from the waveform last night, so we could see a near straight down drop here today as correction.
Good luck all!!!
MLNX Short. Bearish divergence I opened short position:
MLNX put 21 JAN 2022 $120 @ .2250
MLNX put 21 Jan 2022 $115 @ .20
Buying power is weak and the price action is going sideways.
AMD PUT IdeaMy idea:
so based on several factors and signals I looked into (not shown), I simplified into what I see happening. I know there is no strict correlation with AMD and SPX, however, it can be noted that as SPX grows, investors seem to be more "open" to drift away from value stocks into growth stocks to acquire quicker and higher profit. Every since the like of Amazon, Apple, Netflix etc, it can very easily be shown that the society of investors are more open to risk in this pre-technological era as we move closer and closer to a more dominant technological era.
That being said, based on this chart, my idea is both the SPX and AMD (along with MANY others) will have a significant drop coming in the near future, as investors come to terms that the Feds intervention wont be enough to overcome the "iceberg" of problems that are arising. Each on their own does not seem to be significant with the fed intervention, but once you realize the relation that they will have against each other, each "problem" becomes intertwined in the other, from the "iceberg beneath the water" (what many can or do not want to see right now).
With every rally there will be numerous day and swing traders trying to jump on the band wagon of each of these rallies to catch a quick profit. That's why I believe we are seeing such volatilty intraday within the markets. These rallies seem prominently based on emotions and rumors, which day and swing traders are infamously known to be attracted to.
please like and share if you enjoyed this idea/opinion...feel free to like if you disagree as well :p , look forward to a discussion.
SPY Trade IdeaPossible rising wedge forming, a continuation pattern in a down trend or reversal in an up.
Today felt "toppy" IMO, long weekend ahead, lets see what Monday brings... If wedge is validated this oughta make some put holders happy, but one more impulse up before more down... unless JPOW printer go brrrrr.
Looking at ~$264 for local low and ~$293 for top.
Added a few potential outcomes based on major support/resistance horizontals.
The low of $156 (although hard to imagine it going that low) is the 2007 top.
Cheers!
AAL Watched as AAL shot up to a big supply zone. Tagged it and rejected right away. Was a quick move but was able to get some good fills on puts right away for a nice swing back down after rejection.
Think it will bounce around for a bit but no trade plans until price drifts back towards either of the demand/supply zoneS. If supply, since it was such a very brief tag, I think it can hold up. But, then again with the stock being so beaten could even see a gap and go over it.
INTCTook an intraday short trade today when INTC entered (and overshot a bit) a first primary supply level I was targeting. Watched price action and was able to get a good fill on some puts for a nice gain today.
From here I think we continue down to demand level for "b" and then reverse upward towards "c." With the craziness of this market, will watch the up move within "c" as there is potential the "c" wave could become an impulse wave. I don't think this will be the case as I still think the market needs to revisit some downside.