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$BYND Bottom to Fall Out This Summer - Fad = FadeNASDAQ:BYND Broke $152 on Friday - likely headed down to $120-$115 level and then next level will likely be $95. I currently own puts in this name. A little summer projection for the beyond meat craze. "Hexane" carcinogen news will likely only gain traction in the media surrounding the fake meat industry with controversy, leading to shorts to pick up speed and longs to begin to doubt the recent optimism surrounding. Fad = Fade Russel re-balance at the end of the month that will be including BYND will likely push this down further prior to insure the stability of the index in my opinion.
NASDAQ:BYNDShort
by StockPickingEnthusiast
How to Trade the Uber slump, with a hedge in case it rallies NYSE:UBER Technically speaking UBER has been trading with a more positive than negative bias since its inception. There are many risks for this company going forward and for that reason we would like to explore options trades that benefit in prices dropping. (or even rising) I have designed this trade to benefit more from a plunge (40% or more) in UBER's underlying stock through the use of options. There is one segment on the right side of the chart that shows a hypothetical gain if uber should drop roughly 41% from its IPO open price. The strike prices are laid out in terms of other long put option targets as well as their intended time frame. For the sake of this exercise we won't be quoting the exact figure because the fast changes in the options premiums, but if all of the targets are hit before or around the time of its earnings call we could see appreciation in the underlying option from 100 - 300% (estimation) Granted this trade is slightly neutral because we are paying for any loss in the call options value if the stock does drop but what we suggest is pyramiding the position where more put options are accumulated as time passes and the earnings date approaches.. The put dates are set for July, August and September where we are getting long puts for these periods in weighted sizes: We would keep buying 10 puts , 7 puts , 5 puts , 2 puts , 1 put at these strike prices : 40, 35, 30, 25 and when the strike prices are hit we would roll forward the put options into lower strikes with a heavier quantity- if successful a portion of the 10 puts at the 40 strike price would be liquidated and a remainder would be rolled into 35 and 30 strike prices for the following month thereby synthetically being short 1000 shares of UBER .... the more momentum in the decline would results in a greater velocity of leverage we'd have on the position (A MUCH BIGGER SHORT) Profiting along the way When such huge drops occur it leads to a lot of competition among buyers, and our concern is that there will be institutions buying up UBER along the way down and for that reason when the goals are met (40, 37, 35) we would cautiously liquidate those puts just to raise cash and protect the overall short position So that being said if there are any comments about why the stock should go up we would like to continue writing about this as it progresses, there are still another 2-3 months for the plan to work, and even though this is a bearish trade we would still be open to protecting against all losses, and even ride the stock to maybe even a $100 valuation in the future. It is early to tell, but from what I have heard, the company is not growing and they have been losing money for 9 years, any price shock would put pressure on management to change vital aspects of the business model and improve performance... best, Damian Richardson
NYSE:UBERShort
by DamianRichardson
1
A Short-Side Maxar Options PlaySince TradingView made it so you can't remove posts, my first (test) post will unfortunately remain, but since it's actually getting a few views (in all its glorious mediocrity) I figured I would at least share the full trade. On May 23rd, NASA announced its selection of Maxar for the construction of the first part of their upcoming Lunar Gateway, slated to support future manned missions to the moon in 2024. Maxar has been struggling for a while for a number of reasons, including a slump in geostationary satellite sales affecting revenue among other factors including negative analyst ratings stemming from over-leveraging including debt rating of B1/B, ‘sub-investment grade’ from the ratings agencies. On another note, insiders only own 1.2% of outstanding shares. Doesn't show a lot of confidence, at least in terms of expectations for stock value. Share prices have reflected this ongoing difficulty (glance at a long term chart and it's extremely apparent what I'm talking about), and this news about the Lunar Gateway project, announced both through Maxar's investor relations page as well as being mentioned in a YouTube video announcement on NASA's channel, was seen as a much needed positive signal for the company, and became a catalyst for a move to the upside. Due to Maxar's being small-cap as well as their low share price I also suspect that retail intraday traders saw this catalyst as a potential to make a quick trade, further propelling the stock to the upside, reaching around 20% at its peak. Throughout the day I will often scan for the biggest movers throughout any given trading day to look for potential options plays, and I will often take the cynical side and enter put positions on companies that have risen sharply on minimal information despite an obvious bearish trend long term. Maxar met my criteria, and after analyzing MAXR's past movements and long term decline I came to the conclusion that this 20% was far from sustainable as the movement was based on little more than an announcement and success was far from guaranteed in this new venture (even though I as much as anyone would like to see this Lunar Gateway happen in the very near future). I entered into a Put position 2 minutes before EOD on the 23rd of May, starting with in-the-money contracts with a $10 strike price (for risk management reasons), and with a much longer timeframe than many of my trades (in this case, Expiry of July 19th) because I wanted to allocate some extra time to let this play out, knowing that MAXR wouldn't be dropping 20% the next day, that I would likely be waiting for negative PR relating to the Lunar Gateway venture for a more significant gain, and that the bagholders from trading would take a bit of time to come to the conclusion that ultimately they would have to sell, take the loss and move on. Since I entered my position the share price has, on average, continued to fall - and is still dropping as I write this. To conclude, let me share a paragraph from Rich Smith writing for The Motley Fool that I think sums up my sentiment on MAXR - "I personally would love to see the company succeed on its Lunar Gateway project -- and rethink the satellite servicing contract, too! But with $3.3 billion in net debt on its books, and no free cash flow coming in to service that debt, I don't see Maxar's problems as over just yet, and even this week's positive NASA news may be too little, too late to save the company." Thanks for reading, please like the post if you enjoyed it and give a follow if you'd like to see more of my options trades explained in the future.
MShort
by gweebo
4
Oh Snap! Going downSNAP looks bearish as fuck 4HR and my honest hope is the price holds just long enough into open that I can score some cheap 5/3 and 5/10 puts. Better yet, the price spikes slightly to 11.30 and sells off from there. Okay, so let's break it down. Bear flag, clear as day. Other notable mentions would be rising wedge, rising price on declining volume and momemtum exhausted. Also, number of watchers on Stocktwits is at 97,897 with a shit ton of posts from retail bagholders swearing the price is going back to $12 TOMORROW. LOL, sorry kids but no. You're going down. But you can buy some puts and enjoy the slide down. Say it with me! WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEeeeeeeeeeeeeEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!! Oh, also from what I've read, this stock is a total POS and is the poster child for zombie companies. Companies that plague this stage of the business and credit cycle, propped up solely by super cheap and available capital.
NYSE:SNAPShort
by jdharward
PAYPAL SHORT TERM. AT WAVE 5 OF 5 OF WAVE 3. LOAD UP ON SHORTSOPTIONS PLAY: LONG PUTS or sell calls. Entry: $108.97-$110.00 Target: $90. Keep an eye on the sub wave 1-2 extension at $110 at 3.0. A blow past the green zone will have to reconsider the count. Puts 2 months out, cant go tits up. This is a close-up of the larger wave 3, see my long term chart for this. The EW count suggests we are at the top here and about to hit the big ABC down to $90 where the 200 DMA and 618 of the fib retracement sits. Fib extensions shown to predict the end of wave 5, and has accurately predicted several of the wave counts before. All EW rules are obeyed and the standard impulse applies. The biggest question is the time factor. I imagine the B wave will be drawn out and a possible flat due to the volume profile and resistance we built on $100-$105. I will be looking to trade the $110-->~$100 swing, exiting and re-entering. for the big C. No stops identified, trade at your own risk.
NASDAQ:PYPLShort
by warrenbudget
Be patience and you could get big reward buying nflx putsFang stocks are in a inflexion point, we are close to earnings, and this crazy buying frenzy in march, is because everyone is bullish, and the reality is that low volume trades end badly. last week looks like some of the fangs, cant break important levels without earnings, i have to admit this looks like huge manipulation, the scary thing is that all people are confident, they have vix at 14. when average is 16x and dow spy and nasdaq are so oberbought, i think netflix could get near to the $320 before any earning release, people are not that dumb, unless some crazy shit happen, just look what happen with facebook and nvdia all is market manipulation and crazyness im waiting but is great probability that fangs suffer a lot in the next two weeks, be prepare to get cash and buy crazy puts.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by Kanon8260
SHORT MRKT20/Mar/2019 12:49 PM -- I would guess spy hourly catches cloud. -- To Papai i said: "if amd closes below $25 this week might I suggest taking some profit. Not saying to close position. - But I think you should have an if then plan. - If at the same time XLK were to get below 72 and close below I would personally consider that affirmation for profit taking and if qqq gets below 175 Id take off even more" -- XLF monthly with rsi rejection with single line analysis(either that or uniformity cant remember) So if xlk goes... -- Would think u would have wanted to buy puts this morning few weeks out while vol is still tamed -- PUBLISHING FOR MY RECORDS. NOT RECOMMENDATION TO BUY OR SELL. DO NOT FOLLOW ME OR LET MY OPINION BIAS YOU. DO YOUR OWN DD.
AMEX:XLKShort
by gumbtg
MSFT Short There is not even more clear to me nowSooner o later bubbles burst, MSFT is an amazing company but know is just being manipulated to the upside for the absent of volatility and complacency of the market, the last earning quarter for MSFT Was not that great,azzure revenue was flat overrall revenue 12% YOY but actuallly missed estimates, the thing is im worried is valuation 27x His earnings at low double digit growth, is not justified this absurd valuation, if you look even technicalls, yes is above SMA 200 day, bullish bla bla bla, but in order to have a real trend there has to be a retest, but the market has not make that yet, the question why rising to all time highs before earnings are even release?? ask the question why all tech become parabolic now? because they know that this is the last ride and irratitional exuberance is dominating the market, but we know how end on feb 2018-October 2018 And probabably April-June 2019. be prepared if you are long look for get it and out quickly because you know how the market works, push nvdia to 300 then pushed to 130 to average you, thats how the market works be prepared to buy puts anytime soon.! GL in your trades.
NASDAQ:MSFTShort
by Kanon8260
Call me crazy, but this is how i see the market for 2019 BTFD xdThis thesis is not only technical . my thesis is that first economic growth around the globe is awful and even with china trade deal means nothing, because earnings are declining specially in Europe and china and once the euphoria, is over and currency manipulation by Japan Central bank and Us Treasury is over the market is gonna be terrible. also, i think we are in a recession already but media, government and institutions hold information until they sell to average Joe, also, the bond market is already speaking, the 10 year treasury is declining everyday, i think the fed is not gonna raise rates, would do the opposite,because home sales keep falling, the only fake that is sustaining this market are central banks,i would not enter this market until there is a double botton, so, this trend is totally fake because nothing has change since december earnings are not that great and US Market is way overvalued. Good Luck to all and be prepare with cash and buy puts like crazy :D!
AMEX:SPYShort
by Kanon8260
SPY be cautious!I have posted an IWM chart not too long ago but from the daily chart perspective. Here we have a SPY weekly chart with some areas to keep on watch. We have finally come into an area of strong resistance and finally some red juicy candles. Now of course resistance can be broken to the upside and we do have a trade deal on the horizon in which trump tweets an update every weekend about. On the larger picture we have a head and shoulders topping pattern which could lead to some bad turbulence in the coming weeks. So just keep watch for the yellow boxed levels and be safe in the coming weeks. Also keep watch on IWM as it was the first to go last year before SPY, also watch Gold as it has had a pullback for a couple days and could be ready for another leg higher. Weed stocks also tend to move when the markets become shaky and if you'd like, I have some charts for the weed players in which today alone made me more than I make a month of working for a bank. Goodnight everyone. Cheers!
AMEX:SPY
by Vickk
IWM top is in?Little late night charting, have a nice naked chart with a couple areas of focus. Very simple and easy on the eye for bears but maybe not so much for the bulls. After a very boring fight performance from the bears since December 24th, they might be sneaking up on the bulls here. Of course this trade deal is still on the horizon but feels like a lot of this could be priced in/buy the rumor sell the news. Now of course just speculation but a possible scenario that could play out or also we could see some downward movement then some consolidation then the news arrives and we head back north. In my eyes I'm keeping it simple and I see a that a trade-able top is in the top yellow box, target would be middle yellow box. From there we bounce or we head for lower yellow box. Very simple. Zoom this daily chart into the weekly chart and you can see a huge head and shoulders pattern. Could be a scary ride from here until April so stay alert, stay safe, hedge your plays if possible, and look into weed stocks in the mean time. Thinking tomorrow will most likely be a very crazy day in the markets. Goodluck everyone.
AMEX:IWM
by Vickk
T longer term playHey guys and gals it's been a long time since I have posted an idea but I have one where the risk to reward is quite appealing, AT&T is in such a nice triangle pattern since its inception and is playing out very nicely and getting quite tight in price. On the monthly chart we see a baby triangle inside a huge triangle, what this means is we are in the loading up stage, at this exact specific time on smaller time frames we are hitting resistances and have some red candles coming in, to me this means perfect opportunity to pick up some shares as it moves downwards in the $26.50-31 range, little by little add shares on dips. This is also a nice 7% paying dividend stock so for each quarter you will be paid to hold this stock. Target for this stock would be at $38 and then $43 if it breaks out, with such a huge pattern, the breakout can be very strong, remember this stock is in a triangle pattern so it can move downwards as well, stops would be under $26 and the move can be epic to the downside as well, so keep an eye on this sucker but I'll be loading up in my dividend portfolio. This $10+ move to the upside can take a year or more to complete so the dividend will be a nice reward for holding that long. Have a great weekend everyone, Cheers!
NYSE:TLong
by Vickk
This chart of apple scare me!! becareful Apple shortThis whole rally to me is looks like like a bear bounce rally, dont get me wrong apple is a wonderful company and the whole trade deal hope, is more psychological and actual factual, the fact is that apple has a big declining sales especially in china, we have a global slowdown, and yet stocks are up, because of fed put, but i dont think this would last long term, what im seeing is that apple could retest the lows, and fall even further, safe some cash and dont get to much exposure maybe short term exposure im would be ready with puts on my side.!! could drop back to retest lows in april!
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by Kanon8260