Putspread
bear flag on AIG and subdued volatility: put debit spreadAIG currently is trading with an IV30 of 19.6, making its IV Rank 21.8. This low rank indicates that the options will be cheap, and encourages debit spreads, regardless of being bullish or bearish. These spreads will profit when volatility mean-reverts to higher levels.
Because of this well-developed bear flag, we are expecting a continuation of the prior downtrend, thus reversing the immediate uptrend characterized by higher highs and higher lows. To profit off of this, we are doing a put debit vertical by longing the July 26th 54 puts and writing the 53s, for a max potential profit of 41 and capped potential loss of 59, per contract. This is particularly cheap because they expire prior to the expected earnings announcement on August 1st, '19. The break even price is 53.41 because it is being done for a debit of .58. There is max profit below the short strike K = 53.
TSLA Sets New Negative Net Volume RecordWith the largest negative net volume since the 14th of May, 2013, TSLA dipped back into $260 territory today after news got out that the SEC is filing a lawsuit against Elon Musk, allegedly for fraud. SEC claims that Musk misled investors when he tweeted that he was considering taking the company private at $420 a share back in August.
Naturally this has created an insane amount of implied volatility which is perfect for selling options while premium is high. I have personally taken a November-9 put credit spread with the assumption that TSLA will either remain flat or rebound in the interim. TSLA has broken the daily 2-SD low 5 times previously this year, rebounding on every occurrence. Will history repeat itself, or will this finally be the straw that breaks the camels back? I assume the former, or at worst a nice flattening in the short term - enjoy the show folks.
Selling bull put spreads under the stockOne of warren buffett his subsidiaries want to acquire this company. This deal will once get done but can take some time. Thick bids will possibly remain under the stock. That's why i'm selling a bull put spread under the stock. Don't expect this stock to go much lower.
MA: Double ABCD completionBack in April I was talking about using the elevated volatility to buy some cheap July put spreads on MA with the recognition that we might be early to game. Well...there appears to be a double ABCD completion in progress and I am keeping my fingers & toes crossed. Just a reminder, not only is this an expensive stock, it is a parabolic price action. Hope springs eternal!
AAPLLong AAPL via short put spread.
Sold Apr20 145/165 put spread for $2.15.
POP: 74%
BPR: $1,785
Max loss: $1,785
Max win: $215
Stop loss: Price at $162 or $400 loser.
Target: 50% of credit received.
short 165 put: 27 delta
long 145 put: 5 delta
Maybe add to the upside if AAPL starts to look better.
JNJLong JNJ via short put spread.
Short Mar16 125/130 put spread for $1.10.
POP: 69%
BPR: $390
Max loss: $390
Max Win: $110
Target: 50-60% of credit received
Stop loss: Price at $127 or $350ish loss.
short 130 put: 37 delta
long 125 put: 15 delta
If this starts to get really ugly, I may pull off before $127.
FXI put spreadsGetting long Chinnnaaahh (Donald voice) via credit put spreads @ $1.77. I went ITM to be a bit more directional.
Mar16 40/48 put spread
POP: 56%
Max Loss: $625
Max Win: $175
Stop loss: Price at $44.45 or 2x credit received
Target: 50% of credit received
short 48 put: 61 delta
long 40 put: 6 delta.
UVXYShort UVXY via long Apr20 put debits for $2.19.
POP: 68%
Max loss: $892 (2.19 x 4)
Max Win: $308
ROC: 34.5% over 66 days
Long 24 put: 36 delta
Short 21 put: 30 delta
I usually let these expire ITM, as my broker TW has cheap exercise fees. In the case that it expires in between strikes, then I will have to manage them by closing on expiration day.
Tmobile, HI IV, and pays 15% for this trade ideaThis is one of my favorite weekly plays!!! so yes I am biased. Now that we got this disclaimer out of the way, here is the idea.
This stock has major support at the 60 area, so we will be using that as the protection level for this trade.
Option 1. -62.5/+57.50 for June 16th has a midprice of .77... a decent 15% ROI...
Option 2. -60P, midprice is .62, but with unlimited risk, your margin is 1200 making this trade 5.1% ROC. However you got almost 13% downside protection... not too shabby.
#notyourboringcoveredcalls
KC shortUpdate on a upsloping trendline (blue) which acts as resistance
On the 5 hour chart, we should have generated a sell signal.
I still remain short via puyt spread 1x2s, as frost is no longer an issue. It appears the market is still digesting this from last week and should correct lower IMHO as physical supplies out of Brazil remain steady.
Warehouse stocks in EU and US plenty as well.
Dont get me wrong, as shown in the blue channel, even if we have a correction lower, the blue trend channel might indicate a change in trend, however the frost damage is simply not there and in order to rally, this market would need breaking news like that.... without anything of that sort coming out, I see a correction lower before making new highs.
Still, knowing coffee, I remain short with 1x2 calendar spreads, buying the downside 1 leg in one month and selling 2 lower puts in a month further back.