Get started

Putspred

Options Idea: Sell The Sep 18 2020 WFC 22.5-20 Put Spread @ 0.34WFC is in a long-term downtrend, but wants to reverse course. There is a resistance around the $24 area that has held except in mid May when WFC made its 52-week low at $22 and then bounced quickly back the next day to close at $24. I'm going to sell a Bullish Put Spread at the 22.50-20.00 strikes. Since we are in a downtrend I'm going to play it safe and I'm not going to sell naked just in case WFC wants to make a new 52-week low during the next two months. This is a negative probability trade (expected loss > expected win), so it may not be for everyone. 20-WFC-01 Opening Date: July 29, 2020 Expiration Date: September 18, 2020 DTE: 51 IV: 44.94% IV Percentile: 59% Odds of Winning: 73.74% Odds of Max Loss: 12.38% Win: > 22.16 @ Expiration Loss: < 22.16 @ Expiration Reg-T Margin: $250 Chart Legend Green Area: 100% Win Zone. If we finish above or in the green area, we keep 100% of our initial credit. The size of the green area is the size of credit (our maximum win). Yellow Area: Danger Zone: We still win, but we have to give back some of the initial credit taken in. Red Area: If we finish in this area we have a loss. The size of the red area is the size of our maximum loss. 1 standard deviation, 2 standard deviation, 3 standard deviation projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included.
NYSE:WFCLong
by OptionsCoach
Trading Edge 2020 Portfolio -Trade #6 - WMT - Asymmetric Spread Ticker: WMT *This trade is a little more complex, than the others, as it has 2 separate spreads, but stick with me Position: 1st leg - Call debit spread - 21st Feb 2020 expiry - Long 114 Strike call = $4.85 - D = 0.99 - Short 115 Strike call = $4.25 - D = 0.95 - Net cost of 1st leg = $0.6 Position: 2nd leg - Put debit spread - 21st Feb 2020 expiry - Long 120 Strike put = $3.88 - D = 0.88 - Short 119 Strike put = $3.30 - D = 0.73 - Net cost of 2nd leg = $0.58 Total net cost to run 1x of EACH spread = $1.18 <-------- This is the key number to pay attention to (DO NOT ENTER if this price is above $1.30) Profit Target/ Exit: - Maximum profit at expiration is $0.82 (both spreads finish at max value) - Maximum risk = $0.18 (one of the spreads is guaranteed to finish at maximum value ($1.00), therefore the maximum risk is simply the excess, in this case $0.18 - This gives us a "Return on Risk" (RoR) multiple of 4.5, this is a very good asymmetric trade, but it is entirely dependent on the price paid for BOTH spreads, this is why the highest price i would pay is $1.30 for both spreads, lower than $1.25 would be ideal - Even the worse case scenario of paying $1.30 would still result in a $0.30 risk to make $0.70, which is still a RoR multiple of 2.3 - Exit, let the spreads run their course for the duration, we are risking the full exposed premium (so limit your risk assuming it will fail) Rationale: - The high RoR multiple is the major rationale, coupled with the relatively low risk and entry cost - So long as WMT finishes within the outlined white lines, the trade will be profitable - If WMT finishes within the red lines, the trade will achieve maximum profit - Position size only so that your are risking a relatively small amount, i will risk no more than around $400 - Technically, WMT does appear to be more bullish than bearish, if this does eventuate, then a simple way to play that would be to incorporate a naked bought call, to capture the upside, however this would also make this a directional trade, whereas currently this is a theta dependent trade. *Note, the specific entry prices will likely vary, however so long as the net cost to run 1x of BOTH spreads is less than $1.30, ideally less than $1.25, then it will still be a valid trade - TradingEdge
NYSE:WMT
by Profit_Link