BTC Swing LongPotential for a Strong Bullish Move 📈
BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Based on current price action, I believe we may be heading into a significant bullish leg. Here’s why:
Bullish Arguments:
Previous Month Low (PML) is being disregarded.
Previous Month High (PMH) is being disregarded.
Previous Week Low (PWL) is being disregarded.
Previous Day Low (PDL) is being disregarded.
4H swing high is being ignored.
4H swing low is being disregarded.
The only bearish point to note:
Previous Week High (PWH) is still respected.
Trade Management: Once we hit the first Equal High (EQH) around 68K, I’ll move my Stop Loss to Break Even (BE) and manage the trade towards the final target.
Pwl
11/26/23 DXY Daily Outlook11/26/23 DXY Daily Outlook
#DXY #DailyOutlook
We tapped into the 4H-FVG(L), into the YOP again, and took out the PDL PWL with the move up during the over night sessions and into the NY session. We left a new 4H-FVG through the lows taken out, a new 4H-OB, a Price gap on the 1H LTF and in the process of trading down into the PWH from 8/30.
This will be our biggest news release, however, we do have a few #FOMC speakers but not Powell. We also have Richmond Manufacturing Index numbers #RMI and the S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y at 9:00am.
10:00am
USD
CB #ConsumerConfidence
101.0 102.6
XXX/USD bullish
USD/XXX bearish
#BullishCase: A bullish move on Dollars means that we are seeing a LTF move through the 4H-FVG. Once we move through it we see that price uses the 4H-FVG as an IFVG setup to the upside. We then target the previous -POIs, the PDH from Monday and back into the 4H-IFVG range.
#BearishCase: A bearish scenario is a bit more probable at the moment still. We left fresh -POIs and we can look to take setup off of each of these, the Price Gap, the 4H-FVG, 4H-OB, and as you can see on the 1H TF these same POIs are available as well.
1H chart
4H chart
D chart
11/26/23 DXY Weekly Outlook11/26/23 DXY Weekly Outlook
#DXY #WeeklyOutlook
Last week did as expected by continuing to take out highs. We were busy Sunday to Wednesday and stalled out on early market closure because of the holiday. Next week should be busy with a lot of news and we may also get some early reports on Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales. We have news to watch out for everyday up until Friday at 11am when Powell speaks. However, we don’t have #NFP until next Friday. So #powell, #UnemploymentClaims, #PCE, #gdp, #Consumerconfidence, will be the big news releases to watch out for
#BullishCase: A bullish move on Dollars means that we are seeing a LTF move through the 4H-FVG. Once we move through it we see that price uses the 4H-FVG as an IFVG setup to the upside. We then target the previous -POIs, the PDH from Friday and back into the D-IFVG range.
#BearishCase: A bearish scenario is a bit more probable at the moment still as we have a PDL from Friday within a few points below us and last week’s PWL as well. The initial moves of the week will need to be how we handle the 4H-FVG made on Friday near the YOP. If we get a reaction within that range we can see continuation to the down side from there.
XXX/USD bullish
USD/XXX bearish
1H chart
4H chart
D chart
W chart
11/19/23 DXY Weekly Outlook#DXY #WeeklyOutlook
Next week is Thanksgiving holiday so, historically that week can be a hit or miss and especially given the fact that we don't have a lot of news this week so I would tread lightly. We don't have any red folder news until Wednesday and that is going to be an early release of #UnemploymentClaims , #DurableGoods, and #ConsumerSentiment. On Tuesday we do have #ExistingHomeSales which will ll be something that's an economic gauge more so than something we may want to trade off of, but we can see what happens on Tuesday. After Wednesday, there's not really much going into Thursday and Friday because Thursday is a holiday, although we do close out the week with #PMI.
Probability for dollar this week looks like we will definitely take out the PWL last week that I was sitting at 103.815. We are sitting inside a D+FVG but we have the yearly opening price #YOP just about 0.31% below us and that may be what we’re drawn to at least to tap it. We could see some LTF moves to the up side but the daily and weekly charts are pretty heavily favored to the downside meaning that:
XXX/USD bullish
USD/XXX bearish
D chart
11/12/23#NAS #DailyReview #WeeklyOutlook
Last week was a weird week with the drop on Thursday and then price on Friday setting the Weekly High after trading into the D+VIB and near the Weekly low. We also traded through the D-OB and if it is going to continue to the upside may use this as a new POI. Dollar moved up the entire week pretty slowly but the Bonds pulled back and that caused the buy on Friday. Tuesday we'll have CPI and Wednesday we'll have PPI and Retail sales. Then Thursday we will have Unemployment Claims so that will definitely move the markets on those days for sure.
#1 Taking the PWH should be the first move and we might see price move into this 4H+FVG to move higher from there.
#2 Selling for now isn't an option at the moment but taking the sell into the +FVG on the lower time frame may be a move on the 15m chart and below.
4H chart
11/12/23 SPX Weekly Outlook#SPX #DailyReview #WeeklyOutlook:
Last week was a weird week with the drop on Thursday and then price on Friday setting the Weekly Low and high. Dollar moved up the entire week pretty slowly but the Bonds pulled back and that caused the buy on Friday. Tuesday we'll have CPI and Wednesday we'll have PPI and Retail sales. Then Thursday we will have Unemployment Claims so that will definitely move the markets on those days for sure.
#1 Taking the PWH should be the first move and we might see price move into this 4H+FVG to move higher from there.
#2 Selling for now isn't an option at the moment but taking the sell into the +FVG on the lower time frame may be a move on the 15m chart and below.
4H chart
Weekly Outlook - SPX 10-22-23 Weekly Chart:
We gapped up last week only to trade near last week's high and into the W-FVG(MT). Price failed to continue the move up. We are down for the month and this week's candle has opened inside of last week's candle. Staying bearish for now with last week's low at risk PWL and 10/2-10/6 PWL as well. Getting a bullish short term move into the last up close candle would be where I'm looking for setup unless we go after the PWL first.
Weekly Chart:
Daily Chart:
Opened to the upside is likely my short term bias and I'm okay with seeing prince move into the D-FVG above Friday's PDH. However, just given the proximity oof Friday/PWL (previous week low) this is the first place at risk to be taken out. 10/4 is holding the next PWL target if Friday's PWL is taken out.
Daily Chart:
4H Chart:
As we push up short term, I'll be looking to see how price pushing and if we reach into this 4H-OB during the over night sessions. That will be my first POI to determine how we setup Monday morning. We don't have a swing low from the weekly to the 4H so far so this still plays into this pushing to the downside a bit more.
4H Chart:
1H Chart:
Short term focus will be how we move, if we move into this 1H-FVG, take out the +LP above Friday's closing session high, or if we move immediately after the PWL. Overall I'll be paying attention to the short term move but looking to see if I can get into a HTF setup.
1H Chart: