HERE´S HOW YOU OUTPERFORM THE S&P500S&P 500 Index
4Hour Timeframe
RSI
Moving Average
Elliot Waves
Overall Summary
Hello and welcome back everybody!
I hope you are doing good at today's monthly close!
We are watching a 13$ S&P500 gain this month, which is absolutely crazy! Gains were possible, though the cliff to the downside looks scary as hell. Mixed feelings everywhere, uncertainty, fear but kind of hope- very ambivalent mental condition everywhere.
Since 22% of the whole SP500 Index is divided into the six FAANG companies (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google(Alphabet)) and Microsoft, these are the drivers of the US markets right now.
Oil, as well as touristic, hotel, and accommodation markets took big hits, while a few made gains, which has led to the recent bull market/recovery from all-time high/coronadump.
Well, today I´d like to show you something I just have read about recently, it is the Elliot Wave counting technique. As you guys know, I do not give too much about technical analysis systems and techniques, but it is worth trying out and see why they have become such popular.
As you can see, in the ABC-Correction, which is part of the wave counting, the number A marks the all-time high, number B marks the bounce, and C marks the very last low the SPX at 2190.
As you already noticed, the price is coming near the 200MA (Moving Average of the past 200 candles). Historically the top has been a little lower of it, but a few times it actually broke it for a short period of time, after which a massive decline/selloff followed.
RSI looking good, not oversold, but testing the market strength of all-time high. So the market is strong basically, even though volume declines since the bull market started. Spikes here and there happen, but nothing which delivers serious information about it respectively to make predictions out of it.
What does it mean for us?
1. The top might have been reached already, though tonight after market close Apple and Amazon gonna present their earnings, which possibly leads to a temporary boost of the market while looking at the monthly close and the end of the reporting season! :)
At that point, when the bull market of the last month started, we set our first wave up to the number 1, which continues to 5.
We do not know how high 5 will be nor if we already hit the "fifth Wave". Afterward, in most cases, people count ABC and call that an ABC-Correction - whatever it is. You know, in technical analysis, if you wanna fit something to a chart, you fit it. Since lines, shapes, and whatever seem to be fit perfectly, in most it is not. So look at them, but do not trust them too much.
Furthermore, Elliot waves and other techniques are instruments, to describe what happened and make predictions out of it. Nobody can tell the future, nobody knows what is gonna happen in the coming days, weeks, and months.
Personally I am bearish since Q1 might have been "still ok" when talking about earnings, even though many took big losses, but I think upcoming reporting seasons of Q2 and Q3 will be a devastating disaster.
That is it already for today, hope it brightened up your view on the market :-)
Keep you, safe guys, make sure to wash hands and whatever, you know what you gotta do! Be careful with your funds and I´d like to know what do you think?
Will we see a bearish Q2 and Q3 or did the new bull market of the decade already kick in? Just tell me in the comment section!! If the content pleased you, make sure to hit the like button or leave a follow, would help a lot!
Best, Roman
