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Q3

30/09/24 Weekly outlookFollowing a very important week in the macro economic landscape, a round of rate cuts that signals a pivot in how governments are tackling their economies, bitcoin saw a surge from the start of the week right through until the end of the traditional trading week on Friday. Up +6.3%. Last week Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of US$1.11 billion, and Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $84.51m. Bitcoin is clearly still favoured by the larger institutional investors, at least for now they are. This week should be a semi-turbulent week given the forces at play, we've seen the larger economic environment flip to a more risk-on one with the event of a 50bps rate cut starting a period of QE, however, it is also the month end & quarter end. This is a time for "window dressing" the balance sheet and is negative to market liquidity. With banks making their balance sheet risk assessments at the very end of the quarter a shift from holding riskier assets to safer/high quality assets is made and therefor an assets like BTC will fall victim to this. We are seeing the effects of that at time of writing, BTC has fallen -2.7% today and this window dressing is definitely a contributor to it, albeit a potentially temporary measure and on the 1st OCT that pressure should be relieved. Given the broader market environment, by the end of the week this loss should be recovered and some, IMO any dip is for buying in all of Q4, everything has set up nicely for a strong finish to the end of the year!
by ProR35
(BTC) bitcoinThis is what my latest custom indicator looks like on the bitcoin chart. Not great but there's always room for potential hope. I find hope comes mind a lot with trading mostly because I don't have the money to move markets. Luckily, no one really has the money to move the Bitcoin market, and surely the Ethereum market too. Best two investments in crypto; ETH and BTC. The lines are moving against the trajectory of hope right now. Bitcoin and Ethereum are under the 100 day moving average. Most trending moving average lines are above crypto by now. When I see the bitcoin chart on its own the trend seems doomed. Most of the altcoin patterns have already lost their way to a repeatable price bottom based on before the run up prices in the last few months. Could this mean the chance of Bitcoin falling is less likely due to the knowledge that most altcoins are not in anyway trapped which could lead to the altcoin season,.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptocurrencyBlot
(ETH) ethereumindicator look at the Ethereum price. The green line trend represents a price headed to higher prices when the green line touches down. The green line is touching the 0 horizon. There are many different indicators to determine positive or negative directions. These indicators give a potential positive outlook. Price of ethereum should retain some surmountable levels considering the hype and logical phase of ETH ETF. Ethereum did not go through a halving like Bitcoin therefore the future price of Ethereum is much more leading or telling based on history one might suppose.
BITSTAMP:ETHUSDLong
by CryptocurrencyBlot
TOTAL CRYPTO TICKERThe auto fib retracement and auto fib extension show both indications cryptocurrency ripe to for taking in addition to a complete bottoming out of the price as a whole. Distracted by something, or too busy soaking up the second month of summer? Long orange line represents the time period when the drop happened and the price of cryptocurrency going beyond the 100 day without improving therefore falling. Looks like an opportunistic moment where the fibonacci levels appear as though cryptocurrency is flailing around underneath the resevoir of time and money.
CRYPTOCAP:TOTALLong
by CryptocurrencyBlot
01/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,700.01 Last weeks low: $58,451.16 Midpoint: $61,075.58 Q2 ENDS - Q3 BEGINS After a rough quarter of sideways chop, ranging between ~$56K-73K it's safe to say that the last 3 months has been a tough one for the crypto markets. Despite the frustration with price it's important to realise the positive elements of the last quarter. The ETH ETF approval, THE HALVING, consolidation at the '21 ATH level are all bullish for the industry as a whole. As the weekly, monthly and quarterly all close, July 1st almost feels like a new chapter, one that needs to begin strong. Last week we saw BTC dip to the 1D 200EMA for the first time this calendar year. This is not uncommon in a Bullrun, a bounce off that moving average while it is trending up is often a good R:R entry level for a HTF position. This lines up well with how last week played out and until price breaks below the moving average and changes its trend direction, I do not believe we have reason to panic. As the first few trading hours of the new quarter have completed we can see that there is a clear S/R level at the 0.75 range line that was flipped, I would like to see a positive reaction off any retest of that level. As I stated before starting a new quarter positively can have a positive impact. Staying above $62,400 is important in the short term, $65,000 is resistance and an important S/R zone. In the altcoin market tomorrow is an exciting day as the ETH ETF goes live , we've seen what an ETF can do with BTC and potentially the same thing can happen with ETH, the difference in my opinion is that institutions and larger investors were all expecting the BTC ETF to be approved when it did. However, I do not believe that those same players expected ETH ETF's to be approved as soon as they did. It is no secret that the SEC has been arguing that Ethereum is a security and therefor comes under the SEC's regulatory power which was always a point of contention and made ETF approval unlikely. Now that the probe has been dropped by the SEC and they have relinquished power over the cryptocurrency, the ETF is set to go live and I believe the big players just weren't prepared for this to happen so quickly hence the delay in price movement comparable to BTC. We shall see if this delayed response continues as trading goes live but I have no doubt that over the long term this is a net positive for ETH and the altcoin market. In the broader alt space we can see clear signs of seller exhaustion . BTC dropped 10% last week and most alts didn't react anywhere near as negatively as this move usually does. That to me is a clear sign that sellers are all sold out and that buyers are happy to DCA in at these levels to balance price. This week I am keeping an eye on those altcoins that outperformed BTC last week on their BTC pairs with good fundamentals as these alts will perform the best on the next rally. ETHEREUM ETF trading is the main talking point of the week and I will be monitoring that closely. GOOD LUCK FOR Q3
by ProR35
2
Pinterest / PINS - Idea I.hey Guys, - Yearly Chart is bullish, Double Bottom and Engulfing Candle. ->Targets … 41 … 45 … 49. Quarterly: Bullish Candle breakout above the Highs of Q1. -> But it is retesting a major supply line and a yearly FIB. - creating a Grey Zone which divides the Stock into a bearish zone below and bullish zone above. Monthly: Bullish candle - Stochastic Bullish but OB. -> caution as we could see some Profit taking / reloading at lower prices. 3D: Signs of a possible reversal: Ascending Triangle, Fifth Wave, Diagonal Moving Stock (Distortion?) Breakout to the upside would be extremely bullish… Lower prices could be seen as a great buying opportunity. targets Bears: 41 38 Targets Bulls: 45 49 Please let me know if you would like me to analyse an Instrument for you. Thanks for reading
NYSE:PINS
by MeruEU
DJO, Dow Jones in a Triangle - Bullish Continuation expectedHey Guys, Yearly Chart is very Bullish - Broke above ATH and retesting it with this Q2 Candle. However the Monthly Chart Doji indicates a Balanced Market ahead into the start of Q3. A break above the highs would indicate a bullish progression - the Triangle could provide fuel for quite a large move - either up or down. Likely to be a move to the upside - given the higher TF Analysis. 37.800 and 42.000 are the Key Levels for the coming Quarter. Will we see another Quarter of Gains? Or a little pause Pre-Election with some Profittaking under way as well as a ABC Correction towards 35.500? Thanks for reading…
TVC:DJILong
by MeruEU
Russel 2000 - Consolidation into Q3 Hey Guys, For this Index the Consolidation period has been there since the big Engulfing Candle on the Yearly Chart happened in 22. To become bullish again Russel has to move beyond 2280 (-1625 is the lower end with a mid-point of 1940)… Until then I will take a neutral bias towards this Index. Most likely we will consolidate on the 3D Chart between the two white lines - Demand and Supply Lines from the Quarterly Chart. Keep in mind that the Blue Box is the High of 23 and the Red Box Constitutes the Middle Line of 22. I am looking to go long from the lower part and short from the upper part of the Consolidation - until a break occurs. Normally I would enter on the 4h or 2h Chart but I will break it down to the 1H Chart because I like to take entries from there (Risk - Reward wise). Thanks for reading
CAPITALCOM:RTY
by MeruEU
02/10/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $28351.8 Last weeks low: $27165.3 Midpoint: $25978.9 As September and with that Q3 comes to a close BTC saw a late price rally of 4.4% in a single hourly candle to finish the month strong. Going into Q4 I still expect a sell off and revisit of the yearly open. With credit card debt at levels comparable to that of the 2008 financial crisis, as well as a 22-year high for FED interest rate, no confirmation of ETF approval and still 6 months out from the halving. These points all lead me to believe there will be one final flush out. For this week I'm looking for weakness in BTC to potentially go short, however the stop loss would be tight. 32.5K is still a massively pivotal and would be a key area to watch. ALT's such as LINK have served as a top signal for BTC in the past, currently LINK has rallied 40% in the last 2 weeks to reach local high, if the pattern stays true then that could be an early sign of where the rest of the market will end up in the coming weeks.
by ProR35
WILL $INJ REACH $6 AGAIN BEFORE BULL RUN OR CONTINUE TO RALLY?CRYPTOCAP:INJ has made an explosive run upwards since the buy setup executed by $5.40 in the previous analysis on $INJ. Begs the question, will CRYPTOCAP:INJ reach $6 again? I think price will reach $6 again. Below are the confluences for my Bearish stance - Price is currently in a Weekly Rejection Block - Sell Side Liquidity has been taken on the Weekly and Daily timeframes that was at $9.58 - Retail Market Sentiment is bullish as we can see major news articles are writing about the bull market coming which is always great for an institutional trader as there is retail liquidity to raid. - Price is also in a Daily Bearish Order Block that has not been violated as yet. - There is a Fair Value Gap by $8.50 as well as another Fair Value Gap by $6.50 which the algorithm will most likely be targeting to close before another big rally. - There is Buy side Liquidity (retail buy stoploss) by $7.75 which is very attractive. We are currently in Q3 and I project that prices within the Crypto market will make their lows within this quarter in August-September before a Bullish rally begins again. N.B: If you enjoy and learn from detailed analysis like this one, do well to follow, like and share this analysis to your fellow traders. Happy Trading Pals
Short
by Evaliste
SPX earnings recession, growth slow down.The fed hiked rates today by 0.75%. They have also moved to meeting by meeting data dependency. Since they've done both in one meeting there is the possibility that if inflation continues higher for a few months they will be unable or unwilling to cut rates to save the economy from the earrings recession likely on the way. In short the supply side situation is still not resolved leading to over supply of certain goods and under supply of others. Oversupply of goods in typical capital overproduction is what breaks the system due to over competition and thus lower prices. utility theory of value applies until extreme highs/lows of supply and demand shows the underlying labor relations. This imbalance will lead to a slow down in growth and thus an earning recession. Q3 & Q4 are thus likely a prolonged period of reduced demand coupled with oversupply. Such conditions will allow the FED to pivot, reduce rates and step up asset purchases late in Q4 or early Q1 as they will be reluctant to cut rates and "save" the economy from low growth while jobs numbers are high and inflation stabilizes in Q3 and Q4 even if that's what is needed it would be politically dangerous until after the election. If you're a bull you want the jobs numbers to decline quickly in a sharp recession allowing the FED to pivot sooner. If you're a bear you want inflation numbers to be sustained and plateau while jobs numbers slowly come down. I for one am bearish on the current overall trend and that is unfortunate since it means real pain ahead for actual people not just numbers on a screen. Always remember that little nugget is conditional to you making money anthropomorphic reader I am creating on the fly. Probably shouting into the ether on this one...which reminds me of a good long trade actually given the merge...hmm.
SP:SPXShort
by GreatScottTheMoon
2
PayPal strongly bullish after huge dropAs we know, PayPal's Q3 quarterly have shown a steady growth of the company, which is also trying to open up to collaborations with a giant like Amazon. However, this had an anomalous effect on the markets, where PayPal lost more than 10% in the following days. At this point, using a Fibonacci retracement with a minimum set in May 2020 (ie when the main lockdowns are over and a "new era" has begun for everyone, including the markets), we note how the decline of these days has reached the famous "61.8%", one of the most recurring and well-known retracement points in the trading world. Let's add how a company like PayPal has hardly already reached its waning phase, and indeed still has to reach its maximums (introduction to payments with crypto). I leave the conclusions to you, I only tell you that in my opinion this is the right time to buy PayPal on sale
NASDAQ:PYPL
by UnknownUnicorn18031164
1
Post 10/20 Q3 FY21' Earnings Analysis $TSLA, $VZ, $IBM, $NDAQ $TSLA closed up ~+1.5% after reporting revenue that fell short of estimates - profit beat Q3 projections, despite a semiconductor shortage and supply-chain challenges that have troubled automakers $VZ gained +2.4% yesterday following better-than-expected earnings numbers and a lower-than-expected customer churn rate, showing continuous growth $IBM fell (5%+) in extended trading after missing revenue expectations and showing a decrease in gross margin vs. Q2 - also said that increased labor costs will be impacting their pricing in the future $NDAQ posted beats on both EPS and Revenue for the 4th straight quarter - largely thanks to strong performances by both the Solutions and Market Services businesses
SP:SPX
by jnallain1
Corona the Pandemic, The Recession of 2021. The Banksters.Corona the Pandemic, The Recession of 2021. There too many factor playing out and 2021 the Q3-4. Printing more and more money to stabilize market. Wont last. Too much devaluation of dollar would risk more to the ecnonomy. Money would become worthless and it will never be a hyperinflation again. Dollar is already hovering around lows but still building upwards. As we seen in 2020 the dollar spike hard at crash of all the bond buying and selling of stocks. In the greatest Pandamic of all time is the best year for big companies and worst for smaller ones. I proves big things are gonna come very soon. If you look at all the insider trasaction of 2021 you can see Walmart, Facebook, Amazon, Google, Netflix and many more of the biggest shareholders selling of big profits. Some every day and some every week. Tells they have fear and retail person have no clue. Time to call this move. The banksters did a massive move from highs with above 20% move to the upside to liquidate retails marginal calls. Prices of Lumber sored most in history and crash this summer to its lows again. We had minus price in WTI and almost 80 in WTI after its lows. Big things is going down and it will get a lost worse. Unemployment is still at its highs, what will happend when savings account and stockmarket will fail. 10x the 2008 is coming. By just looking at the FED system and the debt. We know. By looking at insider trasaction. We know. By looking at technicals are all levels we are going to have a big Deflation/Recession to stabilize the currency of domination and reset the economy to whats needed. Exit the market or do you placements. But dont get greedy for more upside. (To be clear, recession has not begun. -35.87% drop is not a recession. its above 50% to be a recession counted as one. we did a too rapid drop and too rapid recover for sustainability. Index have done around 1450-1500 point move every sustainable move. now we have done 2280 points in a year in one go. We had Disjunction Pattern in 2017-2021. We are about the get the worst crash in history. Biggest companies in the world are selling of massive share. So many things proves this is one of the biggest bubble every created. Printing money cant sustain. It devalues the dollar. Dollar is on is recover.)
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by PivotX
IWM Q3 rotation. If you pay attention to quarterly rotations - the timing of their occurrence, the breadth of selling and the actual rotation direction, read further. Quarterly rotations don’t always take place on the same time each quarter. Sometimes they strike early or late. This causes difficulty in determining when to take a position, which is why we build positions over time, not overnight. With the big government spend bill, there is fundamental support for a rise in price over the next several weeks. Another trillion freshly minted dollars will achieve its goal of sending the dollar lower with the 10 yr in tow. I first predict a new high and potentially into breakout territory over the next several weeks. But as we approach Q3, be wary of the imminent rotation. As during previous rotations this year, the price finds itself on the edge of several different support lines. And that is precisely what I see by late august or early September. The rotation kicks off selling and the break out will pullback to find and confirm long term support. The thick red line is from September 2020. Where this line and the 0.618 level meet is where I suspect price will find itself.
AMEX:IWM
by Harry_Hood
2
TESLA RE-VALUATION UPDATE|Q3 EARNINGS DISSECTION|+ESG INVESTING+The Q3 earnings report was surprise to everyone, kudos to Musk and his team for a job well done . There are still some questions, but it seems that most of the fundamental issues that Tesla had since the start of the year, have been solved. ****Here are the key points from the Q3 earnings report and the revaluation with the addition of ESG factors: ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ 1. Increase to 22.8% Gross Margin(from 18.9%) and an Operating margin of 4.1%(from -2.6% ). Argument : Improvement in their production line, Tesla's becoming more efficient at producing vehicles. (Ref #2) 2. Large improvement in cash flows, mostly because of cost cutting(15% "magical" drop in expenses) ; at the same time slightly lower revenue. More importantly their investments are having faster payoffs than expected ( China expansion and model Y development, both ahead of schedule). 3. Tesla is becoming more diversified as there are more indications that they're successfully developing their energy storage projects. Revenue from project unrelated to auto sales grew from 368(Q2) to 402 mil(Q3), and will continue to expand in 2020 .(Ref #3) 4. Obviously, since cash flows are better, so is their EBITDA(Q2-371 mil, Q3-876 mil), this is where their good EPS figure came from. Furthermore, there are indications of deferred revenue that will be realized in the following quarters." We also expect to gradually release nearly $500M of accumulated deferred revenue tied to Autopilot and Full Self Driving features." 5. US EV market seems to be saturated, but there could be an opportunity for more demand to kick in as the current ESG investing trends continue based on the current DIM(Green new deal) momentum . Tesla's European expansion will take time and won't be as profitable as the Asian expansion. Chinese expansion opportunity without a doubt will have a large long-term payoff.(Ref #4) *** Most importantly: The rest of the market could feed off the Tesla surprise. No doubt, it's been the best and most bullish surprise for the earning season so far. In times of rising recession fears, Tesla doing well as the market leader in a growing EV automarket, definitely is a major benefactor to the sentiment overall .*** _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ Have to say that I've learn to, not be dependant on wall street analysts when trading highly volatile growth stocks (extension from my previous post). But then again, going off of management's' guidance, they will always have the incentive to manipulate the numbers . It can be said that their bad start of 2019, was an existential threat to Tesla, so Musk and the team got to work. There are still some questions about profitability, but the tricky part is that Tesla's investors are motivated because of ESG factors, not by profitability . Profitability matters less to these type of investors, since the markup in valuation from having a high ESG* score, could improve long-term returns in such investments as Tesla . At these low rates, even if profitability is low, Tesla could keep financing their investments and keep growing with good fundamentals. Additionally, taking their positive ESG score into consideration- the long term looks bullish. I think that more and more portfolio managers will sacrifice potentially higher sharpe ratios in order to acquire stocks with higher ESG scores(some trade-off), as investor preferences continue to change and become more and more adaptive to the increasing popular ESG investing trends. ( Ref #1, great paper on ESG's impact on investing. This is the update on Tesla post-earnings. Learned my lesson (my bad) , short interest was just too damn high to ignore it pre-earnings. -Step_ahead_ofthemarket- *ESG stands for Environmental, Social, Governance. >>I do not share my ideas for the likes or the views. This channel is only dedicated to well informed research and other noteworthy and interesting market stories.>> However, if you'd like to support me and get informed in the greatest of details, every thumbs up and follow is greatly appreciated ! _____________________________________________________________________________________________________ References and Disclosure: 1. papers.ssrn.com ( ESG Investing paper, released about a week ago) 2. ir.tesla.com (Q3 Earnings report) 3. hypercharts.co (All the financials) 4. www.youtube.com (Good video on earnings and conference call) *https://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/environmental-social-and-governance-esg-criteria.asp Full Disclosure: This is just an opinion, you decide what to do with your own money. For any further references or use of my content for private or corporate purposes- contact me through any of my social media channels.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by step_ahead_ofthemarket
6