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Q4

UPTOBER ENDS Bitcoins monthly close is behind us and it's an interesting one... For most of the last day of the month BTC was above the previous monthly close high of $71,413.40. However, Bitcoin failed to close above that level coming up 1.67% short. Despite this the monthly candle is very strong, historically October is a good performer hence the "UPTOBER" nickname and this time around was no exception with an +11% move. I said in a previous post that a retest of the '21 ATH @ $69,000 is possible and likely, in the last 8 months BTC has routinely rejected off this level with no acceptance above, just SFPs galore. This is the chance to retest and accept as new support. that would set up a move for ATH and above. Q4 so far has been positive, we know that this month will be a strange one as the US election is in a few days and can sway markets so volatility can be expected. In the end I think the trajectory is new highs by the end of the year.
BINANCE:BTCUSD.P
by ProR35
Reveries II (Q4 update) It's Mid October and we're inside the 12M sell box; r1 on 1M - 5902 r1 on 1W 5924 r1 on 1D 5898, r2 5918 (chart on right) r1 on 4h macro 5896, r2 @ 5921 (on left) all pending bearish rotation. Feasible push to 5896 (r1 on 4h macro, maybe even r2 @ 5921) but unless es sustains north of 5902 / 5918, downside cycle is coming, and wkly could push to 5790's with minor extension. No bounce there and monthly could revisit 5590's, before post election pump to fill out upper end of 12M sell box (roughly 5827 - 6095, same levels projected from Feb). Projected floor for Q4 5440 - 5320, barring some random endgame narrative, dip to this level keeps us above August lows and provides a generous running start for the leap to breach 6k. Wildcard scenario; hunt to 5960s before pre-election evac... watch for strength north of 5902 / 5921 and if it sustains above, temper expectations; as a.) 5953 is the 120% level for the year and b.) last high on 1d di+ after August low printed Sep 17. Appreciate the risk.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by iSovereign
1
SOLUSDT | Marketoutlook Summary: • SOL/USD Movement: • Trading within a medium-term descending channel . • Resistance zone: 157.40–162.50 (23.6% Fibonacci & Murrey ). A breakout above could lead to further growth toward 175.00 and 185.80 (July highs). • Support zone: If the price falls below 147.60 (central Bollinger Band), it could decline toward 131.25 (38.2% Fibonacci & Murrey ) and 125.00 (Murrey ). • Technical Indicators: • Bollinger Bands: Horizontal, signaling consolidation. • Stochastic: Preparing to exit the overbought zone, indicating a potential sell signal. • MACD: Increasing in the positive zone. • Trend Outlook: • With the long-term downtrend intact, further decline in the near future appears more likely.
Long
by DCFX-TA
1
SEI FOLLOWING SUI??SUI has been on a great run in the last few months being a first mover in the altcoin space while BTC has been chopping for 6 months, now SUI is on the very edge of pushing above above the local high. The chart on the right is SEI and looks like the chart lines up perfectly just lagging behind by a month. This could be a great trade opportunity going into the end of the year/Q4. If the trajectory is the same as SUI we could look to expect a +218% move, and structurally even without a comparison to SUI the chart TA suggests a new higher high and higher low bullish structure which will naturally want to climb back up the chart. Bitcoin generally has a big part to play in the altcoin world, however SUI has made this rally on its own without the pulling power of BTC, could SEI do the same???
by ProR35
XYO xyo "price return"The price of XYO has flipped over from a falling movement to a growing movement after being in a slump for a very long time; As some may already know from the blatantly obvious change in position for the price of XYO. The indicator proves this to be true rather than rely on the fact that the price increased through a slight spike in price last week and so on. The price reflects the death trap descend based on BTC falling in price at the same time that XYO was finally gaining in price. Typical of a scenario where a cryptocurrency does well and the BTC people have complete control over the system to collapse the price of minor tokens when they at long last increase in price thus shuttering the momentum and possibility for the smaller tokens to receive attention. Once the price suddenly collapses, as it did so when BTC fell in price, the momentum is broken and the trivial aspect of interest from outside investors reduces. Nevertheless, Solana does well, Polygon does well, Tron does well, practically every known cryptocurrency on the CoinGecko list of SEC coins/tokens does well over the long term except XYO, conspiracy,.
COINBASE:XYOUSD
by CryptocurrencyBlot
BITCOIN ONCE MORE ON THE RISE!!Hello and welcome back friends i have some exciting cooks for the next crypto PUSH of 2025. Bitcoin is looking great despite the world events which is nothing more than a reason to set up bitcoin for its spring to the upside. After a war there's always profits once it resolves. Indicator (1). Donald T. Speculation if he wins it will push crypto, he is pushing a crypto narrative and wants to make the USA a BTC/Crypto Hub. Indicator (2). Banks are having innovation coming in 1-2 years through company SWIFT for adaptation of Digital Currency. Indicator (3). XRP just received greenlight for adaptation as one of DUBAI's currencies. Check your own facts so that you can correlate to this post as ive done my research to. Its just funny, as well as interesting to notice how the chart TELLS US where the market will go, and then the world events make it happen. Absolutely amazing to have conviction through these markets at these very moments we are in a bearish dip for BETTER BUYS. This baby will continue to pump thorugh 2025. Now..... For the Analaysis haha. As we can see from the chart BTC seems to have a strong floor here at the 60,000 Price range. i have it marked up by a green textile box that price has a great level of support and resistance if you notice to the left. Currently sitting on the 0.236 of our Fibbs from a swing low to swing high out look, and as the jingle goes from low to high we're looking for buys at key levels of the fibb. If she decides to dump a little further for reasons of war & fear, but as stated earlier thats actually a good thing for a higher push in economies. Black swan events despite being unfortunate bring prosperity in goods overtime. This level would be the 0.382 or price at 51,500 of BTC. this will be another VERY strong floor for BTC to quickly recover from notice the wick Monday 5 Aug. We're in for some Bullish runs team Lots of love keep yourselves well and DCA through this crypto market build your portfolios and HODL for 2025.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by IJackPips
30/09/24 Weekly outlookFollowing a very important week in the macro economic landscape, a round of rate cuts that signals a pivot in how governments are tackling their economies, bitcoin saw a surge from the start of the week right through until the end of the traditional trading week on Friday. Up +6.3%. Last week Bitcoin spot ETFs had a net inflow of US$1.11 billion, and Ethereum spot ETFs had a net inflow of $84.51m. Bitcoin is clearly still favoured by the larger institutional investors, at least for now they are. This week should be a semi-turbulent week given the forces at play, we've seen the larger economic environment flip to a more risk-on one with the event of a 50bps rate cut starting a period of QE, however, it is also the month end & quarter end. This is a time for "window dressing" the balance sheet and is negative to market liquidity. With banks making their balance sheet risk assessments at the very end of the quarter a shift from holding riskier assets to safer/high quality assets is made and therefor an assets like BTC will fall victim to this. We are seeing the effects of that at time of writing, BTC has fallen -2.7% today and this window dressing is definitely a contributor to it, albeit a potentially temporary measure and on the 1st OCT that pressure should be relieved. Given the broader market environment, by the end of the week this loss should be recovered and some, IMO any dip is for buying in all of Q4, everything has set up nicely for a strong finish to the end of the year!
by ProR35
Nasdaq Long Memory updated Technical Analysis: The market is currently trading within an ascending channel, characterized by two distinct touches on both the upper resistance and lower support levels. We recently observed a bullish rebound from the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, where sell pressure was rejected, allowing buyers to take control. Given this setup, there is a strong likelihood that the market will test the resistance level for a third time, with potential new highs projected between 20,500 and 20,800. Fundamental Analysis: As we enter the fourth quarter, seasonal consumer behavior, particularly driven by the upcoming festive period, is expected to influence the markets. With an uptick in consumer spending, many companies are likely to see a boost in sales, providing a positive backdrop for continued bullish momentum. Another catalyst for this period is yet to emerge but may further support the bullish outlook as we progress through Q4. Current Position: I am currently holding a long position, having identified 19,915 as a key resistance level that has recently been breached. The daily candlestick closed firmly above this level, indicating potential support for the continuation of the bullish trend. This breakout reinforces the case for upward momentum in the near term.
FOREXCOM:NAS100Long
by MrMosako
1
BTC: NEXT POSSIBLE MOVE!!Hey everyone! Appreciate a like and follow if this analysis helps! Bitcoin has successfully broken out from a symmetrical triangle in the 4-hour timeframe. However, a retest of the broken resistance level is likely. Avoid impulsive buying (FOMO) and wait for a potential pullback. Anticipated Timeline: Sideways Movement: Expect Bitcoin to trade sideways for the next week or two. Retest: A retest of the broken resistance level (around $60k) is probable. Post-Retest Outlook: Bullish Momentum: A successful retest and subsequent close above the resistance could ignite a strong rally. Target: The next major target is $80k. What are your thoughts on BTC's current price action? Share your analysis in the comments!
Long
by CoreCrypto1
NQ Framing: anticipating seasonal LowHello everyone, We have had a bearish weekly bias and have continued downward today crossing an important level. As shared previously, I have been watching these levels in case we get a new low for October, surpassing the earlier one, signaling the seasonal low for Q4. We are very close to breaking that level. Rarely do you come this close to an important level without reaching it. I would like to see 14586 broken, for a new low. There ARE levels below that, and of course anything is possible. However, I will consider the break of 14586 the seasonal low for this quarter, unless convincing signs of further downside occur. Important to note we are framed by a weekly gap above and below- there is a lot of room between this range. I will be looking for daily moves between those for now. Have a great weekend!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by The_Lioness
Key points for seasonality tracking Is the low in or notWe definitely saw a reaction after tapping into that daily FVG above. I expected a retrace after that. now we have to see if it finishes this as a small retracement or puts in a surprise new low for seasonality. Price could retrace to and bounce off those FVG's or go past the last two lowest lows for a surprise. We will know more after today and Monday. these are the key points of interest I am watching. Have a great weekend!
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by The_Lioness
02/10/23 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $28351.8 Last weeks low: $27165.3 Midpoint: $25978.9 As September and with that Q3 comes to a close BTC saw a late price rally of 4.4% in a single hourly candle to finish the month strong. Going into Q4 I still expect a sell off and revisit of the yearly open. With credit card debt at levels comparable to that of the 2008 financial crisis, as well as a 22-year high for FED interest rate, no confirmation of ETF approval and still 6 months out from the halving. These points all lead me to believe there will be one final flush out. For this week I'm looking for weakness in BTC to potentially go short, however the stop loss would be tight. 32.5K is still a massively pivotal and would be a key area to watch. ALT's such as LINK have served as a top signal for BTC in the past, currently LINK has rallied 40% in the last 2 weeks to reach local high, if the pattern stays true then that could be an early sign of where the rest of the market will end up in the coming weeks.
by ProR35
SPX earnings recession, growth slow down.The fed hiked rates today by 0.75%. They have also moved to meeting by meeting data dependency. Since they've done both in one meeting there is the possibility that if inflation continues higher for a few months they will be unable or unwilling to cut rates to save the economy from the earrings recession likely on the way. In short the supply side situation is still not resolved leading to over supply of certain goods and under supply of others. Oversupply of goods in typical capital overproduction is what breaks the system due to over competition and thus lower prices. utility theory of value applies until extreme highs/lows of supply and demand shows the underlying labor relations. This imbalance will lead to a slow down in growth and thus an earning recession. Q3 & Q4 are thus likely a prolonged period of reduced demand coupled with oversupply. Such conditions will allow the FED to pivot, reduce rates and step up asset purchases late in Q4 or early Q1 as they will be reluctant to cut rates and "save" the economy from low growth while jobs numbers are high and inflation stabilizes in Q3 and Q4 even if that's what is needed it would be politically dangerous until after the election. If you're a bull you want the jobs numbers to decline quickly in a sharp recession allowing the FED to pivot sooner. If you're a bear you want inflation numbers to be sustained and plateau while jobs numbers slowly come down. I for one am bearish on the current overall trend and that is unfortunate since it means real pain ahead for actual people not just numbers on a screen. Always remember that little nugget is conditional to you making money anthropomorphic reader I am creating on the fly. Probably shouting into the ether on this one...which reminds me of a good long trade actually given the merge...hmm.
SP:SPXShort
by GreatScottTheMoon
2
Bearish catalysts have all but evaporated ....With Fed. Chair Jerome Powell being confirmed once again, its all but confirmed that the rampant money printing and destabilization of the dollar will also continue. As inflation continues to become more and more unmanageable, people will continue to pile into fixed supply assets that will historically beat inflation. $SPX continues to show how overheated equities have become. As of right now, interest rates will continue to be manipulated as low as possible, the fear/uncertainty of the Fed chair being replaced is now gone and so it is within reason to expect the equites market to go on a rocket ship directly to the moon leaving BTC behind temporarily.... However BTC typically does not follow far behind when that momentum takes off.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by ChimeraHoldings
DXY sell off to 93.5 AKA crypto commence! The US dollar has been in a frenzy for the past 30+ days. With the recent FED meeting it can be speculated that the end may be near for our beloved dollar. FED has stated it will start withdrawing its EMERGENCY funds. The inflation in talks is simply the corp finance worlds inability to recook an already cooked balance sheet. The word of the month is "transitory aka TRANSITION TO A STABLE COIN AKA CRYPTO WORLD. The 2nd word of the month is "tapering" aka the DUCK TAPE IS FALLING OFF THE BOTTOM OF THE BOAT (think flex seal commercial) Prepare to long XXXUSD and short USDXXX pairs. notice my MA about to cross (blue/ orange = bullish ) (orange/blue = bearish) last 4HR candle closed UNDER MA = more bearish confirmation 93.75 is a safe entry if you want to strictly trade DXY. may test 94.1 before the drop I am looking for DXY to take a liquid dip to 93.5 as there is clearly a point of lower support. DXY has failed to test the 94.6 key levels (last touched 9/28/20. In my eyes this is q4 crypto pumping DXY dumping time. ALTs on the breakout daily, BTC looking for the 75K mark ETH looking for the clear 5K mark.
TVC:DXYShort
by chestephens1
NAS100 NEW ATH 16368! NAS HAS BEEN ALL GAS NO BREAKS FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS (Q4 BULL RUN) Tech is at an all time high world wide with WFH continuing as well as vaccine mandates that have citizens returning to office. The recent crypto run can be said to be a fuel to the NAS fire. TESLA going to 1K+ is another great indicator of a healthy nas bullish trend. I would love to see a slight pullback to my blue liquidity box 15600s before the rocket to 16300s! OCT was all green for NAS with a full-body close with no top wick. Currently 450 points away from this short term goal. Does nas want 17-18K to close 2021? (NAS IS UP 3400 YTD)
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by chestephens1
1
DOGE breakout to test .33+Doge has been in consolidation since late august with the last .35 test. Once it failed the .35 test it dipped to its support level of .20 to regather momentum for this Q4 rally. While all other ALTS are somewhat pumping DOGE has seemed to stall out as of recent. we are not out of consolidation until we successfully close ABOVE .31 (looking to shoot thru my liquidity box @.30) I anticapte this move as soon as 11.4.21 or can stall to 11.24-early DEC 2021. **A Tweet from ELON can send this baby to the moon once again**
BITTREX:DOGEUSDLong
by chestephens1