QCOM - Long for mid BB testMorning traders,
QCOM has taken a beating, and looks like alot is flowing back into semi's today, if SPX can re-take 2766 we're looking at a potential full bottom reversal with alot of upside potential on this one.
Currently long june 7-21st calls targetting 71-75 zone
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QCOM
Qualcomm to drop by 15% ? Possibly even 25-30% within the year?Qualcomm overall is a solid company and usually performs bullish in the longer holding time frame..
BUT....
I have seem to come across some shorter to mid time frame bearishness.
First I' noticed QCOM forming a Head & Shoulders with weak looking shoulders that decline from the L.shoulder over to the R.shoulder. A gap also occurred from the L.shoulder over to the R.Shoulder within the same price region showing weakness here.
On Balance Volume shows that there are low exchanges of hands and could be signaling weak buying power and a sell off to come.
OBV to price also shows a Bearish Divergence.
Last but not least, we seem to be in the process of forming a descending triangle (iHVF) with flat bottoms and that is low slung.
Only sign of slight bullishness would be in the weekly time frame in which QCMON is bouncing within a channel that we seem to be within the bottom region of. QCOM has exited this channel before but usually tends to be extremely volatile when done so. Could this be a sign of another series of hyper volatility and a hint of the temporary health of the overall market?
QCMON to see around $48 soon and possibly even mid $30's within the year
QCOM - Great RR setup, 20% zipper in coming monthMorning traders,
On mondays open I plan on opening a middle June to end of June put spread on this asset. Let's dive in.
1) Weekly shows signs of clear exhaustion and indecision, we have a doji print.
2) RSI is exhausted and printing downwards
3) Slowstoch is at the peak and is bearishly crossing
4) VFI has flattened out, likely the high of this move with downside coming next week.
5) MACD is bullish, but expecting the first negative tick next week.
6) Stoch RSI shows it's about to correct.
With a RR of 3.76 and a 19.53% potential return, this is a juicy short. Last week QCOM had the highest amount of shorts opened, and I expect that to continue once it gets going.
I'm targeting the major support zone which also coincides with the 0.618 @ 69.03
China news can propel this thing at any moment, so it should be an interesting, and profitable week.
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APPL - still bearishThe market was rescued this morning following "There's still hope!" tweet from our President.
Looking at the 15 min timeframe, you can see the stock gained some bullish movement but it's still quite bearish.
Note the price is below both the green and red lines.
$195 target for 5/10.
MOONSHOT - attacking the most violent stock on earth!Qualcomm is probably the most violent stock on the planet. The resent trip to the moon was a result of the signing of a truce with Apple (APPL). Apple - the giant - had sued Qualcomm for $30 billion in an overcharging dispute. Qualcomm had fired back with a paltry $7 Billion counter-suit for lost payments. They settled their dispute and investors went into a frenzy.
But have a look at this chart on any time frame. It's not just about the recent lawsuit. I've never seen such volatility before, in all my years.
So - how does one exploit this. Volatility is supposed to be essential to making money in markets - right? Errrh.. so why is this one gonna scare a lot of people?
The problem is in finding entry and exit positions! Those with keen eyes, have a look at the amber ATR indicator. Nearly every time there is a Grade A trend switch, $$ should flash in your eyes! It then becomes simple. The trend could decide your entry and exit points! No predictions!
Now the challenge is to find a suitable trend switch on the recent moonshot! Note the folly of shorting on ridiculously high or low RSIs. On this chart the RSI peaked most recently at 95.
QCOM: Pro traders' end of day reaction to AAPL newsThe huge candlestick yesterday was NOT HFT activity. A run occurred toward the end of the day, driven by pro traders who received early news regarding the settlement of a 3-year lawsuit with AAPL. Pro traders initiated the end-of-day run and smaller funds’ VWAPs triggered to continue the end-of-day run on high volume.
QCOM...Critical level approachingQCOM is a company I respect dearly, but as traders we must be able to emotionally detach ourselves if necessary.
Tomorrow is an earnings announcement for the chip producer and will provide a clearer picture of where the current price level may go. The $50 zone is critical and a brake below $48 dollars can spell trouble for bulls. The $45 zone is the last hope before complete capitulation.
Should we see an upswing, I suspect resistance @ the $54 zone.
Personally, I see an upswing very unlikely from a technical perspective.
QCOM has been battered on the fundamental front, including a contested buyout by Broadcom, which was ultimately denied by Trump, an FTC lawsuit challenging its patent based business model, and a bitter dispute with Apple, which left Apple seeking Intel as a chip supplier. The FTC lawsuit wrapped up earlier today, and the final result will be the driving force behind future price action.
In summary, the future doesn't look bright technically or fundamentally for the company.
Taiwan Semiconductor (Reversal)TSM is moving towards a key resistance level which could in-turn create a reversal. That level is just under $39.00. Big tech companies are anticipating the release of 5G, so most if not all mobile devices will have capabilities and Qualcomm which is a customer of TSM will be producing a lot of chips.
QCOM Earnings: Test of 2-year ResistanceQCOM looks like it wants to test it's 2 year support at the $50 mark. Secondary support is somewhere around $43. QCOM is coming off of a finished head and shoulders pattern, making its D leg downward. Typically a D leg is finished by a sharp reversal. In case of negative earnings, QCOM will likely drop well below the $50 support and have a sharp reversal upward. If earnings are positive, QCOM will likely bounce off the $50 support and make a less drastic reversal upward. Fisher transform also indicates the potential for an upward reversal. With QCOM's extreme debt levels, the FED put will serve them well going forward.
QCOM - Bullish-neutral Iron CondorYear-long cyclical pattern, within a wide parallel ascending channel (not shown to prevent clutter) is the current predominant price action, showing clear supply and demand zones. Expecting price to finish upswing or remain neutral at least until close to or at the next earnings season.
50/52.5/65/67.5 JAN19 IRON CONDOR @ 0.66 CREDIT
General plan:
Roll if necessary & if possible mainly to reduce risk.
Target maximum profit, unless significant profit appears early.
Comment or direct message for discussion, or on other interesting ideas!
Follow for updates.
ADDED 1,000,000 SHARES - POSSIBLE BUYOUTWe heard a rumor that at least two to three large chip companies approached Micron about a takeover.
Is the rumor true, we are trying to find out.
We can say this, after looking at the stocks / P/E's of lesser public companies, in the computer / technology industries and other industries, and then looking at the price of Micron, if the company is not purchased by Intel (INTC), Qualcomm (QCOM), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), Qorvo (QRVO), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Western Digital (WDC), Broadcom (AVGO) or someone else, it will be a miracle.
Look at Cracker Barrel (CBRL), trading at 19 x trailing 12 months, with a P/E of $9.00...STOCK PRICE = $172.00 (yes, we understand it's a restaurant - that doesn't change earnings for earnings or P/E for P/E)
So, even if Micron sales drop, and E.P.S drops to between $8.00 and $9.00, the stock should be trading upwards of $175..? No..? E.P.S is E.P.S right...?
Cracker Barrel has a market cap of only $4.2 Billion while Micron has a market cap of $41 Billion...
Look at MCHP, trading at $73.00 with a market cap of only $17 Billion... P/E....? 32 x trailing 12 months...? OMG!
Look at QRVO, trading at $63.50 with a market cap of only $7.7 Billion... P/E...? 460.33 x trailing 12 months...? OMG!
MICRON is one of a handful, if not the only UNDERVALUED STOCK ON THE STOCK EXCHANGE
Corrupt Analysts calling for more of a drop in the price of Micron could soon be kicking themselves in the teeth!
We will continue to keep adding Micron to our portfolio at these FIRE SALE PRICES!
IT'S REALLY DISGUSTING WHAT IS HAPPENING TO MICRON!
WALL STREET HAS MICRON ALL WRONG AND SOON, THEY WILL ALL BE JUMPING OFF BUILDINGS!
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