The Wedge of Doom!?Thinking that we go test out 10K somewhere along the road in '22. This wedge seems like an easy enough way to get there with brief bounces and dips that lead into the FED easing up. That is a very long wedge and we will probably drop through it at some point earlier than Jan. '23. Maybe last quarter. Maybe late summer. At this point will the FED have gone too far? Factor in war as well as politics and geez, you know, just about anything could happen? Not really...RISK-OFF. I don't choose to fight it. I'm going to ride it with BTC SHORTS and QID. Any thoughts?
QID
SHORT S&P 500 to 4000.Recent drop below Trendline support and Major Horizontal support at 4548 as well as Break below EMA 39.
EMA 39 acting as Resistance now. as well as down trendline (dotted yellow lines)
The run up in Nov-Dec 2021 was a pretty classic Wycoff Distribution as Green candles formed higher highs with smaller and smaller Buying volume. Notice that the Red candles started getting bigger and bigger and as they did the volume of the selloff increased.
Recent Low had one Large Red Candle with very high volume. This was quickly bought up as a rally ensued to the down trendline and EMA 39. I described this EXACT scenario likely playing out in another posted idea except that I expected the rally to occur over a few more weeks. Also notice the Doji candle of indecision with Lower and Lower volume on the recent rally higher and higher over last 4 days. This suggests less and less Demand again.
So, Less and less demand and interest in carrying higher prices while also meeting dual overhead resistance suggest lower prices.
Here we have a great setup for a SHORT in my opinion and I entered 2 SHORTS today via QID and SDS Long positions at $17.91 and $37.94 respectively.
I am expecting this to trade down to 4000 on S&P 500 which happens to be dual support of Horizontal support and MAJOR Trendline Support dating back to April 2020.
We need to watch Volume as it approaches these levels of support for diminishing sell pressure and increasing BUY Pressure. This occurring at support zones will suggest time to cover this short.
Trade what you see.
🩸 Big drop in NASDAQ: Today loosers are tomorrow winners!Hi mates here is my play in nutshell for next 1-2 days on CME_MINI:NQ1!
Bulls High as a Kite on OptimismUS Futures drifted higher in the overnight session, with the S&P hitting a fresh all-time high of 3,859.62. We saw continued weakness in the labour market this morning, with jobless claims coming in higher than expected (exp 845k) at 900k, and over 5MM continuing claims persist. Not that the labour market has anything to do with this super cool new MMT economy. But, I figured I'd mention it nevertheless.
Vix saw it's key ascending trendline break for the first time in almost 8 weeks. This may come as a surprise to many volatility traders, but as we mentioned in our live analysis yesterday, the Vix contract rolled over, and absent any negative inauguration outcomes, which was always unlikely given the incredible military presence in washington, there was potential for VIX to be sold off similar to what we saw in November. So said, so done.
I'll be watching Vix closely today to see if we get support at the post March crash low, and then potentially accumulating more UVXY sub 10's. Risk protection is cheap in my opinion, and stocks are not just overvalued, that would be one thing. But, stocks are at all-time high's, with the QQQ's hourly RSI just below 85. That's extremely overbought folks. I've been looking at the Bollinger Bands a lot more lately, and I've noticed that in many cases, in the past week or two, we've seen a standard deviation of up to 3, struggle to contain the euphoric price action. This isn't going to last forever, as we all know, and so I will continue to position for the worst case scenario, and I won't let greed overwhelm my investing and trading principles.
Key levels to watch on SPY today are the all-time high, of course, near the green ascending trendline around 386, the upper band of the white channel around 380, and the 21 day EMA around 375. I'm keeping an eye on the dollar as well, as we've been expecting a breakout off the back of a potential inverse HS pattern, which could be about to materialize. This would coincide with a rise in yields, which should also see the 10Y yield breakout to the 1.25% - 1.41% range. As always, I appreciate your time today guys, and I hope you enjoyed the analysis. Cheers, Michael.
*I am/ we are currently holding positions in UVXY, HUV, HQD, QID.
Nasdaq100 daily- Reaches 61.8% Fib retracement and Bollinger midNasdaq100 daily- Reaches 61.8% Fib retracement and Bollinger 20 SMA midline support (circled).
SELL SPX 500 2.865 target 2.450Next wave down
Long SDS (ETF)
Long DXD (ETF)
Long QID (ETF)
US equities will drop hard next 10-15 trading days.
Long VIX June
XAO. Has all ords run its course?I have sold off all capital and moved to BBOZ 2x Leveraged SHORT TMF. high risk but i live for the biscuit!!
massive amount of bearish div. across multiple time frames on RSI
large long term distribution pattern (megaphone or expanding / diverging wedge)
new ATH on index
fractalised bearish patterns.
parabolic year to date, floundering and failing housing market, unemployment on the up.
Government ran projects at massive high levels (search Keynesian economy vs Simple economy), companies buying back shares across the board (this is my opinion is bad because it shows a lack of sentiment in short to mid term growth ie money not reinvested in staffing, equipment and growth but funneled back to company execs) inverted yield curve over seas, tension between CHINA and USA (trade war) (ref. hang seng HSI and view Australia's economic dependence on China's growth) well over extended period between recessions locally and a historically bullish, parabolic and over bought real estate market has caused Australia to fuel a service and construction boom leaving alot of people with out jobs if things go bad. No jobs + over extended and over inflated property market = mass forced sell offs... The bad times have just began. (IMO)
these are a few of my reasons to be mid term hyper bearish
do what you want
DEFINITELY DO NOT TAKE MY WORD AS GOSPEL ON THIS ONE DYOR!!!
good luck
stay safe
squirrel funds
and DYOR
oh btw
DYOR
not financial advisor, hard core day trader, chart analyst and punter!
QQQ VOLATILIDAD DE RANGO ACOTADO ANTICIPA GRAN AJUSTE INMEDIATONASDAQ:QQQ
CUANDO EL QQQ (ETF DEL NASDAQ 100) SE COMPORTA CON UN MISMO RANGO DE VOLATILIDAD ENTRE 5 A 7 JORNADAS, ANTICIPA GRAN AJUSTE DE PRECIOS INMEDIATAMENTE.
ESTO ES EVIDENTE CUANDO EL VXXB (ETF VIX) CAE MUCHO Y LOS PRECIOS DEL MERCADO NO AVANZAN DEMASIADO.
Nasdaq could lead the way on the correction - Techs Not So Hot!Our researchers believe the NQ and YM chart illustrates a very different dynamic which is currently at play in the US Stock Markets. The NQ, the Technology heavy NASDAQ futures, appears to have stalled near the 75% Fibonacci price retracement level whereas the YM, the Blue Chip heavy DOW futures, has already rallied past this level and is setting up a “double top” formation near 26268. It is our belief that the US Stock Markets are already nearing an intermediate top rotation price area and that traders need to actively protect their long trades/profits right away. We believe a downside price rotation may take place very quickly over the next 5~10+ days and that the markets may rotate downward by a minimum of 4~6% in what we are calling a “momentum rotation setup”.
Weekly charting basis shows how dramatic the upside price move since December 24th has been It also shows the current high prices are very near to the high price levels near the end of November 2018/early December 2018. We believe this “intermediate double top” formation will prompt a downside price rotation towards support near 24985 (or a bit lower). This represents a -5.5% price rotation and will likely frighten a few long traders. It will also embolden the shorts to start to power back into the markets expecting “This is IT! – the Big One”. We believe this downside price rotation will become a very healthy moderate downside price swing that will revalue equity prices, re-establish support and prompt a new upside momentum move that may eventually break all-time highs later this year. In other words, we believe this rotation will be an excellent buying opportunity for skilled traders. We show our volatility VIX setup forming here.
Be prepared for a moderately large, -4~6%, downside price rotation over the next 5~15 days where support will likely be found near the -5 to -6% levels for the YM and ES. The NQ may fall a bit further towards 6295 ~ 6773 (-6% to -12%). We believe the weakness in the technology sector will be much greater than the Blue Chips and Mid-Caps.
QQQ SQQQ TQQQ QID PSQ QLD QQQX
FUTURO NASDAQ ALCANZA TARGET 6761 PTS, DIA CLAVE .FUTUROS NASDAQ APERTURA CLAVE DIA VIERNES YA QUE ALCANZA TARGET DE HIPOTESIS MOVIMIENTO CONTRATENDENCIAL EN ABC EN 6771 PTS.
POSIBLE AJUSTE DE IMPORTANCIA INMINENTE PARA NUEVO MOVIMIENTO BAJISTA, ENCARADO POR ACCIONES DE ALTA PONDERACION.
Why Buying $QID Is Getting Me So Excited Today $QQQ $AAPLYes, I will admit it. I am excited today. Buying the ProShares UltraShort QQQ ETF (NYSEARCA:QID) is probably the smartest move an investor can make today. Why? Because $AAPL has carried the NASDAQ 100 for four straight days but is seeing MASSIVE distribution today. What is distribution? It is where there is huge volume but prices starts to flatten out. This is happening to Apple ever since it tagged the $115.00 level. Distribution occurs when big money institutions sell into greedy small investors. The volume is big but price stays the same as the buy volume and sell volume is equaled out. In addition, the NASDAQ 100 ETF (NYSEARCA:QQQ) just filled a major gap going back to Friday's collapse. This is a huge resistance point for the NASDAQ 100. When you add the gap fill + Apple distribution, you get a top in the NASDAQ. This is why I am so FREAKIN' EXCITED. You can thank me later when you make thousands on this heads-up alert.
