SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-3 : GAP Breakaway PatternFirst off, thank you for all the great comments and accolades related to my calling this breakdown (nearly 60+ days ago).
Did I get lucky having these new tariffs announced, causing the markets to break downward? Probably.
Did my research suggest the markets were going to break downward anyway? YES.
Did my research predict these tariffs? NO.
My research is specifically price-based. You'll notice I don't use many indicators, other than my proprietary price pressure and momentum indicators.
The purpose of what I'm trying to teach all of you is that price is the ultimate indicator. You can use other indicators if you find them helpful. But, you should focus on the price chart and try to learn as much as you can from the price chart (without any indicators).
Why, because I believe price tells us everything we need to know and we can react to price more efficiently than getting confused by various technical indicators.
At least, that is what I've found to be true.
Today's pattern suggests more selling is likely. After the markets open, I suggest there will be a bunch of longs that will quickly be exited and shorts that will be exited (pulling profits). Thus, I believe the first 30-60 minutes of trading could be extremely volatile.
My extended research suggests the markets will continue to try to move downward (over the next 60+ days) attempting to find the Ultimate Low. But, at this point, profits are profits and we all need to BOOK THEM if we have them.
We can always reposition for the next breakdown trade when the timing is right.
Gold and Silver are moving into a PANIC selling phase. This should be expected after the big tariff news. Metals will recover over the next 3-5+ days. Get ready.
BTCUSD is really not moving on this news. Kinda odd. Where is BTCUSD as a hedge or alternate store of value? I don't see it happening in price.
What I do see is that BTCUSD is somewhat isolated from this tariff news and somewhat isolated from the global economy. It's almost as if BTCUSD exists on another planet - away from global economic factors.
Still, I believe BTCUSD will continue to consolidate, attempting to break downward over the next 30+ days.
Remember, trading is about BOOKING PROFITS and moving onto the next trade. That is what we all need to focus on today.
Get Some.
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QQQ
AAPL About to CRACK!Without Question, AAPL is the best company in the world and the most valuable. However, it means little in this economic landscape.
AAPL is about to start cracking here. I usually do not post them ahead like this, but in this situation, I will break my own rules.
Take your money and RUN!!!
WARNING!! GTFO!
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-4 : Breakaway PatternToday is a very interesting day because my MRM investment model turned BEARISH on the Daily chart. That means we have broken through major support because of this tariff war and the markets are not OFFICIALLY (based on my models) into a Daily BEARISH trend (or a Daily Broad Pullback Phase).
What that means is we need to start thinking of the markets as OVERALL BEARISH and trying to identify support - or a base/bottom in the near future.
This is no longer a BULLISH market - everything seems to have flipped into a BEARISH primary trend (OFFICIALLY).
So, watch this video to understand how Fibonacci price levels will likely play out as the SPY targeting the 500-505 level (possibly lower) and where the same Fibonacci price levels will prompt the QQQ to target 395-400.
BUCKLE UP. This is a BIG CHANGE related to overall market trend.
Gold is holding up much better than Silver. But I still believe this is a PANIC selling phase in Gold/Silver and they will both base/recovery and RALLY much higher.
The funny thing about the cycles in Gold/Silver is this:
In 2007-08, just after the major expansion phase completed, the Global Financial Crisis hit - prompting a large downward price rotation in metals.
Maybe, just maybe, this forced tariff war issue is a disruption that will "speed up" the process of metals rallying above $5000++ over the next 60+ days.
I see this move as PHASES and it appears the tariff disruption may prompt a faster Phase-Shift for metals over the next few months. We'll see.
BTCUSD seems to be in SHOCK. It's really going nowhere on very low volume.
If BTCUSD is a true hedge or alternate store of value - I would think it would have an upward reaction to this selling.
We'll see how this plays out.
Get some.
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Welcome to the real world Uncle Sam!The market can withstand a lot of pressure.
It can handle:
the dawn of "fake news" and outright "lying"
the pollution and "enshitification" of social media
imperialist ideas of a Gaza takeover
partnering with a Russian totalitarian state
overhyping of AI and Nvidia's overpricing
populist politics
unworldly valuations of tech stocks
What it cannot handle is:
Upsetting the world order
Undermining of NATO, Europe, and allies
Starting trade wars with your best friends
Establishing tariffs which will harm the US economy
I love the US stock market, and US animal spirits, it's the best in the world.
But when risk rises, then secure investments like bonds/treasuries become the smart money move. Stocks become "risk off"
Risk is rising, tariffs will pressure inflation, inflation kills economies and markets.
The European defense industry will benefit, the US consumer will pay higher prices.
Higher risk, could mean a lack of confidence, and confidence powers the stock market.
Batton Down the Hatches.
Trading Note: I sold all my US holdings on Tuesday, at the break of the double top neckline (see chart).
My target price is the 2021 high, before the one-year bear market. Its a big drop, I give it a 60-70% chance.
RSI & ROC Negative Medium-term divergences
Of course this could all change if Trump backtracks on trade wars, tariffs and imperialist rhetoric.
But until then, enjoy the ride.
Using Fibonacci/Measured Moves To Understand Price TargetThis video is really an answer to a question from a subscriber.
Can the SPY/QQQ move downward to touch COVID levels (pre-COVID High or COVID Low).
The answer is YES, it could move down far enough to touch the pre-COVID highs or COVID lows, but that would represent a very big BREAKDOWN of Fibonacci/ElliotWave price structure.
In other words, a breakdown of that magnitude would mean the markets have moved into a decidedly BEARISH trend and have broken the opportunity to potentially move substantially higher in 2025-2026 and beyond (at least for a while).
Price structure if very important to understand.
Measured moves happen all the time. They are part of Fibonacci Price Theory, Elliot Wave, and many of my proprietary price patterns.
Think of Measured Moves like waves on a beach. There are bigger waves, middle waves, smaller waves, and minute waves. They are all waves. But their size, magnitude, strength vary.
That is kind of what we are trying to measure using Fibonacci and Measured Move structures.
Watch this video. Tell me if you can see how these Measured Moves work and how to apply Fibonacci structure to them.
This is really the BASICS of price structure.
Get Some.
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MARKETS NOT OVERSOLD CAUTION!While only 36% of stocks are over the 20-day MA, they are nowhere near oversold conditions. As such, there is still room for the downside.
While this indicator is only suitable for short-term trading, tomorrow new making event could push markets way lower.
While I would not suggest trading news events. I know some do, as such bottom picking is not advisable.
CAUTION!
QQQ - support & resistant areas for today April 4 2025The key support and resistance levels for QQQ today are above.
Follow me to get this notified when I publish in the morning.
My group in my signature, get these first, then ideas, and then minds; I also post these for QQQ TSLA META VIX in my group, so join if y'all haven't.
Understanding key levels in trading can provide valuable insights into potential market movements. These levels often indicate where prices might reverse or consolidate, serving as important signals for traders considering long (buy) or short (sell) positions.
Calculated using complex mathematical models, these levels are tailored for today's trading session and may evolve as market conditions change.
If you find this information beneficial and would like to receive these insights every morning at 9:30 AM, I invite you to support me by boosting this post and following me @OnePunchMan91.
Your engagement is greatly valued! However, please note that if this post doesn’t receive more than 30 boosts, I will have to reconsider providing these daily updates. Thank you for your support!
Need any other charts daily, Or how to trade this? Comment on this.
NYA THE ONLY BULLISH WAVE COUNT 4th WAVE TRIANGLE on NEWSThe chart posted is that of the NYSE NYA this is the only Elliot wave Structure that is BULLISH I have now moved into calls in the SPY 540 and QQQ calls 450 dec 2026 . This is a HIGH RISK TRADE BUT I AM WILLING TO TAKE A 25 % position the sp cash was at 5415and qqq were at BEST at 452 put call above 1 and vix above 28.5 the fear greed was at 9 best of trades WAVETIMER
QQQ: Tariff ReactionNASDAQ:QQQ As China strikes back with a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting April 10, the global trade landscape could see some serious turbulence. This follows Trump's tariff moves, and the market's already feeling it: QQQ’s daily chart shows capitulation volume on the table, suggesting a potential bounce— IF tariffs ease.
But until these trade tensions subside, it's likely to be a rocky ride. Tariffs push prices up, inflation lingers, and the Fed finds itself boxed in. The outcome? A market crash, recession, and stagflation—yet, there's still hope for a bounce, depending on how these factors play out.
Manage the levels with us at ChartsCoach.
Using The CRADLE Pattern To Time/Execute TradesThis simple video highlights one of my newest pattern definitions - the Cradle Pattern.
In addition to the many other patterns my technology identified, this Cradle Pattern seems to be a constant type of price construct.
I'm sharing it with all of you so you can learn how to identify it and use it for your trading.
Ideally, this pattern represents FLAGGING after a trend phase.
It is a consolidation of price within a flag after a broad trending phase.
It usually resolves in the direction of the major trend, but can present a very solid reversal trigger if the upper/lower pullback range is broken (see the examples in this video).
Learn it. Use it.
Price is the ultimate indicator.
Learn to read price data more efficiently to become a better trader.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update Update For 4-2 : ConsolidationThis quick update shows why I believe the SPY/QQQ will struggle to make any big move as long as we stay within the 382-618 "Battle Zone".
The SPY continues to rally up into this zone and stall out. If the SPY stays within this zone, I believe the markets will simply roll around in a tight range and go nowhere today.
Thus, I published this article to warn traders not to expect any big trends until we breakout - away from this Fibonacci "Battle Zone".
You can't kick the markets to make it go anywhere. And, unless you are trading very short-term swings in price - you are probably better off sitting on the sidelines waiting for a broad market trend to establish.
This is a warning. As long as we stay in the Fibonacci "Battle Zone", price will struggle to build any major trend.
So, play your trades accordingly - or just take a break from trading while you wait for the markets to roll out of the "Battle Zone".
Get some.
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NASDAQ Harmonic pattern indicating strong bounce incoming.AI vs. Dot-Com Bubble
When drawing parallels between #AI and the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, many express concerns that current valuations may be excessively inflated. However, significant differences are apparent.
To begin with, the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of the NASDAQ-100 is approximately 30, whereas during the dot-com bubble, it skyrocketed to 200, with many companies lacking any earnings in sight.
Additionally, the market capitalisation to #GDP ratio reached unprecedented levels in the late 1990s, while today's figures, although still high, are supported by robust earnings and solid cash flows from established business models.
Innovations in AI, cloud computing, and digital transformation have fuelled revenue growth, exemplified by #NVIDIA's data centre sales, which surged 409% year-over-year in Q4 2024, and Microsoft's Azure, which experienced a 28% year-over-year increase in 2024. This surge in productivity is being driven by individuals, businesses, and governments alike.
As a result, major tech firms are making substantial investments in AI research and development, with clear strategies for monetisation.
AI is poised to become a transformative force, akin to the transistor, a groundbreaking invention that scales effectively and permeates various sectors of the economy.
Lastly, the Federal Reserve raised interest #rates to 6.5% to tackle inflation after previously lowering them to address Y2K concerns before the bubble burst in 2000.
In contrast, current expectations suggest that interest rates will stabilise or decrease, which would support valuations.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-2 : GAP Reversal Counter TrendToday's pattern suggests price may attempt to move downward in early trading, trying to find support near recent lows, then potentially roll a bit higher.
I do expect price to move into a downward price trend - attempting to break below the 549 price level and targeting the 535-545 target Fib level this week.
Today, Thursday, and Friday are all GAP/Breakaway types of patterns. So we should be entering an expansion of price trend and I believe that trend will be to the downside.
Gold and Silver are nearing a Flag Apex level. Very exciting for a potential breakout rally driving Gold up above $3250 and Silver up above $36.
I personally believe there is nothing stopping Gold and Silver in this rally phase until Gold reaches levels above $4500. GET SOME.
BTCUSD had a very interesting spike low. I still believe BTCUSD will roll downward - targeting the $76-78k level, then break downward towards the $60k level. Time will tell.
The rest of this week should be very exciting with the Breakaway and GAP patterns.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-1-25 : Temp Bottom PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find temporary support near recent lows or a bit lower.
I'm not expecting much in terms of price trending today. I do believe the downward price trend will continue today with the SPY attempting to move down to the 548-550 level trying to find support.
The QQQ will likely attempt to move downward toward the 458-460 level trying to find the support/base/bottom level today.
Gold and Silver are in a moderate consolidation phase that I believe is transitioning through a Flag-Trend-Flag-Trend-Flag-Trend type of phase. Ultimately, the trend will continue to push higher through this phase as metals have moved into the broad Expansion phase. This phase should see gold attempt to move above $4500+ before the end of May/June 2025.
BTCUSD is rolling within the 0.382 to 0.618 Fibonacci price levels related to the last price swing. I see this middle Fib level and the "battle ground" for price. I expect price to stall, consolidate, and roll around between these levels trying to establish a new trend.
Thus, I believe BTCUSD will move downward, attempting to move back down to the $78,000 level.
Nothing has really changed in my analysis except that we are experiencing a 48-96 hour consolidation phase before we move back into big trending.
Play smart. Position your trades so that you can profit from this rolling price trend and prepare for the bigger price move downward (targeting the bigger base/bottom near April 15, 2025).
Get some.
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Nasdaq updated forecast with sell-side & buy-side targetsNQ futures aiming at 18900 level off these last highs. Now seeing developing weakness... expecting sellers to take it down for one more low as we approach the implementation of Trump's tariffs on 4/2.
Look for renewed buyer strength after the next set of lows as we approach the next FOMC rate decision into first half of May 2025.
This is a great swing trade setup for TQQQ, if desired, or long dated in-the-money QQQ call options.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD Update : Rejecting The BreakdownDoes this big rejection bar mean the selling trend is over?
I doubt it.
In my opinion and experience, big rejection bars like this reflect a critical price level where the markets will attempt to REVISIT in the near future.
Normally, when we get a big rejection bar, like today, we are testing a critical support/resistance level in price and you can see the difference between the SPY, DIA and QQQ charts.
The QQQ price data is already below the critical support level and barely trying to get back above the rejection level. Whereas the SPY and DIA are still above the rejection lows.
I see this as a technology driven breakdown and because of the continued CAPTIAL SHIFT, we may move into a broader WAVE-C breakdown of this current trend.
I see the SPY already completing a Wave-A and Wave-B. If this breakdown plays out like I expect, we'll see a bigger breakdown in price targeting $525-535, then possibly reaching $495-505 as the immediate ultimate low.
If you follow my research, there is a much lower level near $465-475 that is still a likely downward target level, but we'll have to see how price reacts over the next 2+ days before we can determine if that level is still a valid target.
Watch for more support near recent lows tomorrow, then a potential breakdown in the SPY/QQQ/DIA.
Get some.
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INVERSE CUP AND HANDLE $TSLA TO $120 The inverted cup and handle, also known as the upside-down cup and handle pattern, is a bearish chart formation that can occur in both uptrends and downtrends. Unlike the traditional bullish cup and handle pattern, this inverse pattern features two key components: the "cup," which forms an inverted U-shape, and the "handle," a brief upward retracement following the cup.
Sell NASDAQ:TSLA right now with fact check:
brand reputation risk, high competition, loss of EV market leadership, cyber truck/ product recalls, declining sales with lower margin, stock volatility concern, insider selling, investors buy it based on expected future earnings rather than its current profitability.
+ Head and shoulder/ inverse cup and handle, P/E ratio 79.8-161.23 (overpriced), falling knife, dead cat bounce, the lowest target estimate stands at $120.00, below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, MACD indicator is -19.8, bearish signals.
+ potential stagflation, tariff war, slow economic growth, inflation, rising public debt, geopolitical tensions, ai bubble, and more
FREE $QQQ Day Trade Setup!🚨 FREE NASDAQ:QQQ Day Trade Setup:
Break below $460.71 (Pre-Market Low)
🎯 $458/ $455
Options: April 1st $460 Puts
Ride H5_D on 2Min. chart. (Close above H5 is an Exit)
Retest PDL (Friday Low) = Look for a rejection
🎯Pre-Market Low
Play April 1st $466 Puts
Not Financial Advice
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 3-31 : Carryover PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to carryover Friday's selling trend.
I do believe the SPY/QQQ will attempt to find some support as we move into a Temp Bottom pattern tomorrow. So be aware that the SPY/QQQ may attempt to find support near 535-540/450-455 over the next few days.
I would also urge traders to not get very aggressive in terms of trying to pick a bottom in this downtrend.
In my opinion, I don't see any reason why anyone should be buying into this breakdown unless you are prepared to take a few big lumps. Just wait it out - wait for a base/bottom to setup.
Gold and Silver are moving higher and I believe this trend will continue for many weeks/months.
BTCUSD should continue to move downward - trying to establish the Consolidation Phase range.
As we move into trading this week. Be aware that Tuesday/Wednesday of this week are more ROTATION type days. They may be wide-range days - but they are still going to be ROTATIONAL.
Get some.
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$KRE CRASH COMING ... Not yet tho..we'll find out..Regional Banks seem to be heading on a slippery path identical to the most previous crash pattern back when they needed all the loan Bailouts. Now that all the loans have stopped, I'm sure some banks may be heading towards loan restructuring perhaps, maybe defaults, I'm not sure honestly. I just know that the chart never lies and I've been watching and waiting for a long while. I predicted the first crash back then and I currently have no doubts with the current chart ahead of me. As always, I will do my best to provide the best insight possible into these speculations. Currently we have the Daily breaking trend and the bar count getting close to the previous 141 bars. The only difference is that we bounce off the 100% retracement. If we continue to lose the 1.27, we'll be headed for the 1.61..... updates soon.