SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-13: Breakaway GAP RALLYWatching the markets this morning, it was very clear the SPY Cycle Pattern prediction of a breakaway pattern setup cleanly with the morning bullish price gap.
Now, we get to watch as the markets struggle to move above recent resistance channels (and Fib retracement levels) as the Vortex Rally base continues to build.
I find it very interesting to watch so many other analysts continue to predict a CRASH.
What changed over the past 5+ weeks?
- A different candidate for the elections?
-- the US elections were in question many months ago.
- Bank Of Japan indicating they need to aggressively support the YEN?
-- the US Fed rate hikes were already putting pressure on global currencies and economies.
- Conflicts in the ME (as that situation continues to work itself out)?
-- The Israel conflict has been ongoing for more than 40+ years. Israel is doing what it must to defend itself from multiple aggressors.
- What else?
I simply don't get why so many other people seem to think the US markets are, somehow, going to absorb all of these foreign market economic & currency issues.
So what, Asian currencies weaken further over the next 24-36 months. How does that detract from the US economy?
So what, the Canadian dollar weakens further and their economy moves into a recession. If you remember correctly, the Canadian economy was super-heated pre and post-COVID (at about 150% of the US economy). It is almost essential for the Canadian economy to contract after a massive speculative bubble.
So what, other foreign markets struggle to defend their economies and currency values as we shift/settle into a more defined global structure. The decoupling of these global economies is actually a very healthy component of what is taking place throughout the globe - monetary contraction.
We need to see this type of monetary contraction in order to move into an organic growth phase. The US Fed and global central banks kept the world's economies on a high over the past 10+ years with easy rates. Now, we need to settle back into more normal rate/economic function.
And I still believe the US economy is the strongest, most dynamic, and most capable of growing over the next 24-36 months while the rest of the globe "settles into a base".
Get ready for a Vortext Rally in the US/US-Dollar.
Get some.
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QQQ
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-13 : Breakaway May Pause A BitThis morning's video covers the SPY, QQQ, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and more.
I suspect today's Breakaway pattern will result in a moderate pause before the markets attempt to move higher.
I still believe the US markets are shifting (decoupling) from global markets a bit, and we are amid a mild "shakeout."
I believe the US markets must settle (establish a base) before the rally can continue.
Ultimately, what has changed over the past 90 days is nothing other than the fact that we have a new dynamic in US politics, and the BOJ has warned that the US Fed's rate decisions may put extreme pressure on foreign currencies.
Get ready for a bit of a sideways slide before the markets resume trending (I believe upward) again.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-12 : SPY 10 Min Flagging/BreakoutThis update shows you why I believe the SPY will resolve the current Flag formation into an upward price trend.
The Vortex Rally base will likely continue to setup over the next 5+ days. But the 531-532 level on the SPY is proving to be a strong support area and as long as this level is not broken - we should see the SPY attempt to rally back above 545-550.
It is all about timing the move and staying patient while the SPY/QQQ settle near this base.
I'll continue to post more updates as price trends.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 8-12: Vortex Base Building This is a quick update suggesting that the upward momentum in the US markets appears to be fairly strong. But I urge my followers to stay cautious.
The markets are not "cleared for lift-off" yet. We still have numerous Fibonacci resistance levels to break, and we could see the markets move into a broad sideways FLAG formation or break downward again to establish a deeper low.
Within this video, I share what I believe is essential for the markets to move into a confirmed "lift-off" mode.
Please be patient. If we stay patient and protect capital, there will be many opportunities for big swing trades.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-12: Gap/Breakaway PatternWatch this video to learn why the Vortex Rally is building a base and why it is important that price stay above the 0.382 and 0.50 Fibonacci price levels as the base forms.
You'll see how these Fibonacci price structures are key components to all of my research and how to use them efficiently.
Fibonacci Price Theory teaches us price is always attempting to reach new highs and/or new lows. Additionally, price moves in only two modes : Trending or Flagging.
When you completely understand the mechanics of price and how price attempts to operate (see above), then you can pick apart charts very easily.
Currently, price is moving higher (establishing new higher highs) and may attempt to break through the downward 0.382 & 0.50 ceilings as the Vortex Rally base continues to build.
Stay cautious this week as we may see extended price volatility. There will be a huge opportunity (sweet spot) for traders over the next 60+ days to catch more of this big Vortex Rally phase.
Get some
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$SPY 8/12 - 8/16- Massive panic sell off last week and a quick quick recovery BUT we are still overall red for the month
- If price makes higher highs above $534 lvls we most likely will keep pushing higher so we will look for calls
- IF price rejects and starts to make lower lows as well as retest previous demand zones then we should look for puts
- KEEP IN MIND there is PPI 8/13, CPI 8/14, and Retail sales + Unemployment 8/15
- Earnings for Retail Companies are next week as well so keep an eye on NYSE:HD , NYSE:WMT , NYSE:BABA for any major moves
fakeout into a shakeoutgood eve'
over the last 4 weeks the es1! has seen a bit of a shakeout which has scared a lot of people out of the market. whenever these things happen, i always wonder what it is that they're afraid of?
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the es1! completed 5 waves up on a weekly timeframe from the 2023 low which we predicted, to the 2024 top which we did not pinpoint this time around.
i'm predicting we sweep the high 1-2 more times into the fed pivot,
before dropping very aggressively into the presidential election.
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if all goes well, the timeline will look like this:
> we pop to sweep the high into the "fed pivot"
> we drop -20% into the presidential election.
> the presidential election turns out to be favorable for the market:
> next bull run begins.
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i'm not your financial advisor, in fact - i'm not telling you to be a buyer nor a seller.
just sharing my interpretation of the chart in front of me.
do with this information what you will.
🌙
NASDAQ-100. A POTENTIAL SYMMETRY PERHAPS IS THE NEXT BIG THINGPolicymakers at the U.S. central bank on Wednesday held interest rates steady, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
A Day later stocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2.
The Federal Reserve risks further weakening the US economy and tanking US stock markets.
As the unemployment rate has risen in recent months, it has fueled speculation that the strong labor market is cracking and pointing to potential trouble ahead, with full-time employment in the US declining by about 1.23 million jobs over the past 12 months, and part-time employment adding about 1.52 million jobs (May'24 data).
While much of the attention of financial analysts in June and July 2024 was focused on the Fed's rhetoric, inflation and manufacturing statistics, the US unemployment rate, which is recovering from its 55-year lows, is much greater thing.
In technical terms, June'24 will be the 4th month in a row, US unemployment rate is above its 26-week (6-month) simple moving average.
Historical backtest analysis of the entire history of data since the end of World War II indicates that the onset of a recession in the United States is just around the corner.
In any case, such labor market symptoms have always, in all cases without exception, signaled either an already occurring or an imminent US recession.
The main graph (Nasdaq-100 Futures cont. contract) indicates on a potential symmetry for further bearish development. with the nearest target roughly S14'000 mark (that is corresponding also to 5-years SMA).
SPY/QQQ/GOLD Plan Your Trade - New Week Aug 12~16+Thank you for all the boosts and likes. I'm trying my best to deliver informative and intelligent information for traders to learn to make their own decisions.
My goal is to teach you the skills to become better at identifying and selecting better opportunities for profits. Not to be right all the time - that's impossible.
But, to learn to manage risk levels, trade more efficiently, plan your trades, and to execute better trades with detailed information and guidance.
I hope I'm achieving those goals for all of you.
Some of the comments have been wonderfully supportive. Of course I'm not right 100% of the time - no one is. I'm simply trying to provide the best analysis I can to help you plan and prepare for better trades.
This video discusses what I expect from the markets over the next 5~10+ days.
I believe the markets need to retest support before shifting into the new Vortex Rally phase.
We need to watch Gold/Silver, the Transportation Index, Crude Oil, the US-Dollar, and how the SPY/QQQ react over the next 5+ days.
It will be interesting to see how things play out.
Get some.
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QQQ Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for QQQ is below:
The market is trading on 450.55 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 467.96
Recommended Stop Loss - 440.00
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Massive Sentiment Swing (Bears vs Bulls Royal Rumble)Many traders were looking for answers this week. What just happened? The quick summary is the JPY carry trade was quickly unwinding and as the Nikkei 225 was dumping with the largest 2 day move (EVER) the JPY volatility increased. On top of that, the FED didn't cut rates in July (as expected) and elected to punt to September (with likely 25 bps cut forecasted). Unfortunately, Thursday Unemployment Claims were higher and Friday's Non-Farm was a massive whiff. This triggered concerns that the FED is now behind the curve and the economy is heading into a recession (Sahm Rule is undefeated as a predictor). Key takeaways from me this week - VIX made the 2nd largest single day spike (Friday to Monday), and 24 hrs later made the 1st largest single day retreat (Monday to Tuesday). As I explain in the video, eerily similar volatility event like we saw in 2017 into January 2018. History rhymes and 2017/2018 were very different economic times compared to today. The week ahead is a bit lighter on US earnings, but key news is PPI and CPI (Tue and Wed prints). I'll be watching the key equilibrium levels to see who gets the upper hand. Do bears attempt to push price lower and re-test the lows? Do bulls continue to rip after the outlier cleanse and we're back to all-time highs before the election or end of year? We'll find out. I'll be watching and trading and doing my best. Thanks for watching!!!
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SPX are we bullish or bearish? The S&P 500 closed the weekly firmly.
Finally putting in a high volume reversal, has the SPX bottomed here?
One thing is for sure we are still putting in higher highs & higher lows on the weekly time frame.
Until we see the markets give us that lower weekly high its still a tough market to short.
We think about the decline in semis and megacaps after earnings...all eyes will be on NvDA near end of month.
The markets have a strong chance at staying buoyamt into NVDA earnings.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-9 Noon Update : Possible SqueezeThis quick update covers SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and NVDA.
Boy, what a change in price range compared to the last few weeks. Looks like ht markets have settled into a deep sleep today.
I still believe the Breakaway pattern could really make a move in the last 30 to 40 minutes of trading. A solid squeeze potential is available to price if the short trading pressure starts to unwind before the weekend.
Watch how this plays out at the end of the day, and remember that next week should see solid rallying trends.
Have a great weekend.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 9-9 Update : SPY Must Rally Above 532This is a quick update related to the Inside Breakaway Pattern today.
The SPY must attempt to break above 532 in order to attempt a rally up to 539-542.
I really believe the SPY is primed to move into a Ripper Rally phase between now and the end of next week.
I will urge the Make-Or-Break (525-526) is still in play.
If the SPY falls below 525 - the trend flips to BEARISH
If the SPY stays above 525 - the trend is BULLISH.
So, we need to see how today plays out. But, I believe a Ripper Rally is primed and ready to go where the SPY could rally up into the 540+ level very easily.
It may play out as a rally to 545++ by mid-next week - but we may see it start today.
Get some.
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