QQQ
Iconic Failed Bullish move on SPX?If the S&P500 gets rejected at this level, it has the power to be an iconic selloff.
Now before we get to “bear’d up ” understand the SPX is still holding above the key short term daily moving averages and holding higher lows. The long term trend is still up.
Now to go back to being bearish. This FOMC interest cut was a big 0.50 BP which is not what most were expecting.
The rate cut that everyone was so bulled up on ended up backfiring in the markets face. The market sold off and reversed lower. Historically this is a phenomenon we can observe throughout previous rate cutting cycles.
Along with a buy the rumour sell type of day, the candle formation om the SPX are appearing to be higher volume reversal candles. Today session almost completed bearishly engulfed yesterday’s session.
These 2 candles have also proceeded to be trading at New All Time Highs before failing to hold and reversing Lower.
Is NVDA the catalyst for the market?NVDA just had a bearish crossover of the 20 & 50 MA (Daily chart)
Last time we saw this bearish moving average formation was in early August.
NVDA proceeded to fall sharply in the coming days.
All eyes on the market leader. All eyes on the QQQ.
Will the Q’s be the demise of SPY?
If Nvidia sees anymore weakness you can be sure it will have other semis following suit.
Risk to reward in the near term is clear.
What To Expect After The Fed rate Cut: 9-18-2024 (Fed Day)This video is really designed to teach you some basics about Fibonacci Price Theory (FPT) Analysis. I wanted to show you how I see the charts using FPT and why, sometimes, I might be seeing things differently than you do on the charts.
In my world, there are simple constructs that are evident on every chart. Supply & Demand zones, trending/flagging, and most importantly Fibonacci Price Theory constructs.
Fibonacci Price Theory is the basis of all my analysis. It is the ground-level structure I look for in price on all charts. Then, I move to more advanced indicators and other analysis types to develop a Success/Failure outcome (trend/trade expectation).
What I do is not hard to understand - it just takes practice.
Fibonacci & Gann techniques are infinitely adaptable to any type of price action. I use another technique I call the Tesla Price Amplitude Arcs which often help me identify where/when price events may happen - but that is for another video (maybe).
Ultimately, it comes down to understanding the structure and intent of price action (either success or failure) and how to position your trades for that success or failure of any price event.
There are really two types of traders: trend traders and counter-trend traders.
Trend traders try to catch the explosive price moves as trend events.
Counter-trend traders try to catch major reversal levels in price and try to profit from counter-trend price moves (reversals/reversions).
Using FPT, you can learn to execute both type of trading styles and improve your ability to see the market trends/setups more clearly.
I hope this video helps you learn to become a better trader and helps you understand my Plan Your Trade videos more clearly. At least you'll be able to understand how I see charts and what drives much of my thinking related to chart.
Get some.
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FOMC (FED) 50 bps Cut - What's Next???FED cut 50 bps today (as CME FED Watch Tool predicted), but it was one of the closer toss-up probabilities at 55% to 45% odds.
Today's 50 bps leaves room for more to come and the market is anticipating 10 cuts in 11 FOMC meetings out through 2025.
The market's resilience has been impressive, but until the market is satisfied with more "good news" on employment, inflation, and earnings growth...fresh all-time highs and rips may prove elusive in the near term.
Thanks for watching and enjoy the video!!!
SPX6900Real stocks r cringe
A memecoin like SPX6900 has the potential to "moon" due to several factors intrinsic to the nature of memecoins and the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. Firstly, memecoins often capitalize on viral marketing and social media hype, which can drive significant interest and investment from retail investors. The name SPX6900 could itself be a clever combination of elements that resonate with internet culture, potentially amplifying its appeal. Furthermore, if influential figures or communities within the crypto space endorse SPX6900, it could lead to a rapid increase in its visibility and perceived value. Finally, the speculative nature of cryptocurrency investments means that many investors are constantly on the lookout for the next big opportunity, and a memecoin with a catchy name and strong online presence could easily capture their attention, driving up its price substantially.
QQQ continues to test major resistanceQQQ rallied up its resistance and tests with false breakout
Volume increases over day before yesterday as resistance is tested again
RSI trends downward and stays below SMA
QQQ has been trending downward since August and now trying to break through its major resistance. Generally September and October are not great months for the market so extra caution must be taken during this time
VIX Watch outHours before FOMC VIX is doing this. I bought QQQ puts expire today to trade the news. More than 60% probabilities the FED cuts 0.5. But if it only cuts 0.25 might trigger a violent sell-off
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-18 : Gap Potential & Fed DayThis video pretty much covers everything I've been telling all of you over the past 5+ days.
Yes, I'm planning on waiting out the consolidation/early trading today and waiting through the Fed decision. There is no reason to jump in front of a moving train attempting to change its direction or speed. You just get run over and beat up.
So, I'm going to take a break this morning, watching the markets and waiting for the Fed rate decision.
While I did look at some data points this morning, the one thing that caught my attention was the Mortgage Refinance Index. That index has jumped more than 45% over the past 12-16+ months while mortgage rates are still above 6%.
I believe this is an indication that ARM borrowers are under some pressure now (after roughly 36 months) to refinance and are dealing with higher rates. 2024-3 = 2021.
Those hot to buy anything after the COVID pandemic may have signed into ARM loans with a 3-year rate guarantee - which may now be rolling into fully adjustable rate loans. That would push the refinance index higher as these homeowners attempt to wiggle their way into something more realistic than the 6.5 to 7.5% rates on their ARMs now.
In my opinion, this is the only thing that may prompt the Fed to lower rates a bit - the pressure on a small segment of home owners in ARM loans that need some relief.
We'll just have to wait and see what happens today.
Get some.
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9/17 Expectation of two bases points cut increased to 65%. Overview:
The VANTAGE:SP500 closed higher despite forming a red daily candle, signaling potential intraday weakness or selling pressure, but the broader trend remains positive since the overall price closed higher than the previous day. This pattern suggests buyers were active, but sellers took control after the market opened, creating a bearish candle even with upward movement. Similarly, the NASDAQ:QQQ didn’t break previous highs but printed a similar candle.
While BlackRock and Grayscale stayed on the sidelines, all other major funds loaded up on BINANCE:BTCUSD , pushing the day’s total to $186.8 million, 84% higher than the average BTC ETF volume of $102.3 million. Ethereum ( BINANCE:ETHUSD ) continues to struggle, with Grayscale selling ETH even on today’s green market day.
Retail sales rose again, showing that the U.S. economy remains on solid ground, keeping recession fears at bay. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the number of traders expecting a 0.50% rate cut has risen to 65%, compared to 50% at the end of last week and just 10% in early August.
Technical Analysis:
W: Despite recent gains, BTC remains in bearish territory, trading below the BB MA. Price touched the $61.4k weekly level during the Asian session but retraced. A rate cut could be a positive event, keeping BTC in its current range without major sell-offs. Some altcoins may see 10-20% gains.
D: BTC held the $58.4k level and bounced, signaling possible growth after the rate cut.
4h: BTC briefly hit overbought RSI at the $61.4k resistance level but was rejected. MACD shows a bearish divergence, but this may be overshadowed by the upcoming rate cut.
1h: Overbought RSI is cooling off now.
Altcoins vs. BTC:
Another day of divergence among altcoins. BTC grew by 3.6%, while ETH followed with 2%. SOL printed a doji candle, but NEAR outperformed with a 6.4% gain, bouncing off its support. SUI and TAO saw strong gains of 12.2%.
Bull Case:
The lack of a large sell-off by whales suggests confidence heading into the rate cut. BTC has been climbing since September 6th, and if the rate cut injects liquidity into the markets, some of that money may flow into risky assets like crypto. A postponement of recession fears could also lead to higher interest rates for longer, but this means more disposable income available for speculative investments.
Bear Case:
Despite the rate cut, the economy is slowing down, and a 0.50% rate cut represents only a 10% decrease in the current rate.
Fear and Greed Index:
The index rose slightly to 37.91, reflecting cautious optimism ahead of the rate cut.
Prediction:
Short-term bullish for BTC, but expect range-bound movement or a drop in October.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17 : Wednesday is CriticalIf you were paying attention to my SPY Cycle Patterns today - boy, a beautiful "top" pattern setup today. Just like my SPY Cycle Patterns predicted more than 3 years ago.
If you've been following my research, you already know I've identified dual excess Phase Peak patterns that should resolve into a rollover topping pattern, sending the SPY/QQQ moving downward towards the end of this week (Sept 19-20). If the current Ultimate High price level continues to act as resistance, there is a real potential for the SPY/QQQ to move into a downward momentum breakdown the following week (Sept 23-30).
But, the one thing that throws the whole topping pattern into a mess is that the RSP has already broken to new ATHs and appears to be attempting to hold above the previous high-price fractals. Thus, we are seeing the equal-weighted S&P already moving into a broad value-based rally phase.
Watch this video to understand why I continue to suggest traders avoid engaging in any big trades or get greedy, thinking they are going to WIN BIG on their trades. Yes, I'm sure some people will hit their targets over the next 3-7+ days, but others will get run over (hard).
Unless you really like taking the risk of getting run over by the markets or market makers, I suggest sitting back and reading a good book while the markets or traders struggle to find their exits.
One thing is certain: the markets will move into a trend by the end of September—either into a breakaway rally phase or into a rollover topping phase.
You'll have lots of time to position for these trends because my research shows the next cycle phase is October 7-10 (nearly two+ weeks away).
So, why stress out about tomorrow's Fed Rate decision? Just sit back and wait for the markets to give you a clearer understanding of what's next.
I'll create another morning video tomorrow morning.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update For 9-17: Excess Phase Peak BreakThis short video explains why it is so important to often wait for the markets to show you what it really wants to do - not trying to force a trade when the markets are undecided.
Many traders are likely short right now - expecting a top to setup in the markets ahead of the Fed rate decision. My research suggests a top would likely form because of the dual Excess Phase Peak patterns on the charts as well.
But, the RSP rally to new ATHs over the past 3+ days gave me reason to PAUSE and really consider the potential that price may rally and break away from the Excess Phase Peak setups.
Well, today we have a new ATH in the SPY. We need to wait till the end of the day to see if price gets rejected at these new ATH levels - but this is a BREAK of the Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Over the past 10+ days, I've continued to share why these Excess Phase Peak patterns are one of the core constructs of price action. They happen all the time (probably 60% of all trading through any year is an Excess Phase Peak pattern).
There are five constructs to the pattern. They can be Bullish or Bearish in structure.
At any time after the initial PEAK/TROUGH is set, they can INVALIDATE. So, we have to stay keenly aware of when/how they can invalidate.
This video will show you multiple examples of Excess Phase Peak patterns and how to use them.
Get ready, we may be at the start of a moderate melt-up for the SPY targeting 585-595 or higher.
Get some.
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SPY/QQ Plan Your Trade For 9-17 : Top PatternToday's Top pattern suggests the markets will melt upward in early trading, finding resistance, then rolling over into a moderate downtrend.
A top pattern is very similar to a reversal pattern. Where price moves higher, finds a key resistance area, tops, and then rolls downward away from the resistance area.
In today's video, I take a quick look at RSP, the equal-weighted S&P500 ETF, where price levels have already moved to new ATHs. And this may be very important for all traders to consider.
If the equal-weighted S&P ETF is moving to new all-time highs right now, while the QQQ and SPY struggle within the Excess Phase Peak patterns, it may be just a matter of time before the SPY invalidates the Excess Phase Peak pattern and moves to new ATHs as well.
The QQQ may be a different story as that chart still shows quite a bit of upper price range before invalidating any of the Excess Phase Peak patterns.
Therefore, I suggest traders stay very cautious today and tomorrow as we see how things play out. Right now, I would suggest the topping/peak pattern has about a 60% probability of playing out successfully today. Those ATHs in the RSP are more indicative of a moderate melt upward instead of a rolling top pattern - at least right now.
Gold and Silver will pause a bit ahead of the Fed rate decision. All markets are in a "wait and see mode" ahead of the Fed. This is another reason why you should not be overly aggressive in your trading right now.
Bitcoin is attempting to FLAG again - moving into a tighter, more consolidated price range just below $60k. I still believe an explosive upward price trend is building for BTCUSD.
I believe we will see an explosive upward price trend setting up just before the elections across the SPY/QQQ and other markets as well - we have to get through the next 45 days of consolidation and uncertainty ahead of the elections.
Get some.
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$SMH Wedging Here – It Can Break Either WayI have been long NASDAQ:SMH for months and have been up as much as 18%. I have given a lot of that back and am now watching this chart very closely. I did hang in for that 29% drop (shown on chart) and felt it was a shake-out. It started recovering nicely but dipped again. The only positive thing I can say about this chart is that it has managed to put in a higher low (but has it?).
I am watching this wedging pattern and looking for it to break either way. My bias since I am long is to break up and out. But I am prepared for a breakdown as well. I have an alert on both the upper and lower trendlines. Should it break up, I will add to my position and should it breakdown I am ready to sell my position and consider shorting. All TBD.
Thanks for checking it out. Comments always welcome.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-16 : Gap Reversal PatternMy honest opinion related to the next 2~3 trading days is - go take a few days off and wait out the markets for the next 48+ hours.
I don't believe there will be much in terms of opportunity over the next 48-72 hours as price is likely to chop around near the top of the current FLAG. The real opportunity comes late Wednesday and into Thursday/Friday as price should attempt to break downward (if my analysis is correct) and move into a solid 5-7+ days of downward price momentum.
What I see happening over the next 48-72 hours is Sideways Chop. Not fun for the average trader and really not something you can make a lot of money trading unless you are very skilled at catching short-term price rotation with options.
Overall, the next 48+ hours should be about observation - watching price attempt to stall, break away from this FLAG, and setting up for the bigger move near the 19th & 20th of September.
I'm not telling you how or what to trade. I'm just saying I believe the next 48-72 hours will be very difficult for average traders.
OK. Happy Monday.
Get some.
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9/15 Weeks Overview. Rate Cut Volatility or Bullish Opportunity?Overview:
The VANTAGE:SP500 closed the second week of September with a strong green candle, completely retracing the previous week's red candle. The precision of this price action is impressive: the 1st week's open was at 5623, and the 2nd week's close was at 5626. The 1st week's close was at 5408, and the 2nd week's low was 5406. So, is this a bearish or bullish signal? Neither—it's volatility. There's uncertainty around whether we're headed for a recession or a soft landing. Will the Fed’s rate cut ignite a bull run or crash the market?
One factor contributing to this week’s positive performance is favorable macroeconomic data, such as the CPI and PPI, which came in lower than expected and weren't revised down multiple times. Next week, all eyes will be on the Fed's interest rate decision, scheduled for Wednesday at 2 PM EST. This announcement will overshadow other key macro data, including US retail sales (trending up), building permits (trending down), and the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (trending upward since January 2024). Current expectations are split, with a 48% chance of a 0.25% rate cut and a 52% chance of a 0.50% cut. The expectation of a two-basis-point cut has doubled in just a month. If the odds were skewed more heavily (90/10), the market could avoid volatility as the move would be priced in. However, in the current scenario, even a 0.25% rate cut could trigger a sell-off.
Historical Context for Rate Cuts and Risky Assets:
Looking back at how NASDAQ:QQQ performed after past rate cuts provides valuable insight:
• July 31, 2019 to April 2020: Rates dropped from 2.40% to 0.05%. In the next three trading days, QQQ dropped 6%. However, it reached a new all-time high in 86 days and gained 22% in 202 days. This was supported by a strong labor market, with unemployment falling for eight consecutive years. The temporary decline was due to COVID shutdowns.
• September 18, 2007 to December 2008: Rates fell from 5.25% to 0.15%. QQQ soared 1.9% on the day of the cut and gained 12.2% over the next 42 days. However, the Subprime Mortgage Crisis ensued, leading to a 52% drop in 380 days. The labor market was weak, with unemployment rising for four months before the cut.
• January 3, 2001 to July 2003: Rates declined from 6.5% to 1%. This marked the collapse of the Dot-com bubble. QQQ had already corrected by 56% over 280 days. While it rallied 32% in the next 21 days, the downtrend resumed, dropping another 61.4% over the next 645 days. Unemployment had bottomed eight months before and started rising one month before the cut.
More weight should be given to the 2007 scenario, as the current labor market resembles both 2007 and 2001. The 2001 rate cut holds less relevance since QQQ tracks tech stocks, which were uniquely impacted during the Dot-com bubble.
Strategic Outlook:
Based on historical data, one could allow the market correction to finish on Monday or Tuesday, then take a long position on your favorite altcoin for 1–2 weeks—but no longer than that.
In terms of ETF flows, historically, if weekend was red, Monday opens with more sell off driven by ETFs.
BTC Timeframes:
W: Needs to stay above $58.4 to maintain short-term bullishness. However, given the upcoming volatility, the chances are slim.
D: As of Sunday evening, whales started selling off, likely anticipating next week’s volatility. As mentioned in Friday's forecast, "Short-term correction to $58.4, then volatility during the rate cut week." The current correction from Friday’s highs is 3.5%.
4h: The sell-off began at 4 PM EST and has now corrected to the weekly level of $58.4.
1h: The price has just reached the weekly level, and RSI is oversold, presenting a short-term bullish opportunity back to the $59.8 level.
Altcoins Relative to BTC:
The divergence continues, with altcoins correcting more than BINANCE:BTCUSD . While BTC has corrected 3.5%, BINANCE:ETHUSD is down 6.7%, and BINANCE:SOLUSDT is down 6.4%.
Bull Case: We are in a 2019-like scenario, where speculative assets rise for several months after a rate cut.
Bear Case: We are in a 2007-like scenario, where the labor market continues to weaken, corporate revenues shrink, and the recession plays out over a couple of years.
Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 35.64 and trending down. As long as the index remains below 40, it's a good time to start dollar-cost averaging into top altcoins like ETH, SOL, BINANCE:NEARUSDT , BINANCE:BNBUSDT , and BINANCE:AAVEUSDT .
Prediction:
We’ve already corrected to a relatively strong weekly level. The only prediction that can be made is a short-term bounce, followed by more volatility.
Opportunities:
BINANCE:FTMUSDT has reached a higher price on the 4-hour chart, but its RSI and MACD are trending down, signaling a bearish divergence. This could be invalidated by a sudden spike in BTC.
Stock Market | TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOG MSFT AnalysisQQQ Forecast
Sp500 ETF analysis
Nvidia Stock NVDA Forecast Technical Analysis
Apple Stock AAPL Forecast Technical Analysis
Microsoft Stock MSFT Forecast Technical Analysis
Google Stock GOOGL Forecast Technical Analysis
Amazon Stock AMZN Forecast Technical Analysis
Meta Forecast Technical Analysis
Tesla Stock TSLA Forecast Technical Analysis
QQQ What Next? SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the QQQ next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 475.38
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 466.57
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ Short-Term Selloff After the Fed's Rate Cut DecisionIf you haven`t bought the recent dip in QQQ:
Then you need to know that as we approach the Federal Reserve's rate cut decision this week, there is growing speculation that the central bank may implement a larger-than-expected 50 basis point cut, instead of the anticipated 25. While rate cuts are typically viewed as bullish for markets, this unexpected move could trigger a short-term selloff, particularly in tech-heavy indices like the QQQ.
Why? The market tends to operate on a "buy the rumor, sell the news" mentality. Investors have already priced in expectations of a modest 25 bps cut, so if the Fed delivers a more aggressive 50 bps cut, it may signal heightened concern over economic conditions, causing traders to pull back. Such a scenario could spook the market, leading to a temporary selloff in major indices like the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ).
In light of this, it may be worth considering a bearish strategy for the short term. Specifically, the $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could be a prudent option, as they stand to gain value in the event of a selloff following the Fed decision. The short-term market reaction could make these puts a strategic play for traders anticipating a dip.
While the reaction to the Fed decision could be sharp in the short term, it’s unlikely to be long-lasting. Market participants will soon digest the news, and I expect a recovery by the end of the month. In fact, by November 5th—U.S. election day—we could see new all-time highs in both the S&P 500 (SPX) and the Nasdaq 100 (NDX).
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has been keen on maintaining market stability, which could give the Democrats a slight edge in the upcoming elections. After all, former President Donald Trump has stated he wouldn’t reappoint Powell if re-elected, possibly adding a political dimension to the Fed’s moves.
In conclusion, while the QQQ might face near-term turbulence due to the Fed’s potentially larger-than-expected rate cut, the broader market is likely to recover soon, with tech stocks regaining their upward momentum as the election approaches. The $475 strike price puts expiring on September 20 could serve as a timely hedge during this brief period of volatility.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-13 : Rally DayPlease take a minute to watch this video, and possibly some of my earlier videos from this week, as we continue to see the SPY, QQQ, and Bitcoin continue to move through an Excess Phase Peak pattern.
It is very important for traders to understand the eventual A/B outcome of the Excess Phase Peak pattern. For the SPY/QQQ, we are still flagging into what is very likely to be a rolling top pattern - setting up a broad downward price trend in the near future. The only thing that can stop that rollover top is a rally to new ATHs (which can happen to invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern).
Because of these pattern setups, it is important to see were the SPY ends this current rally phase and if the SPY can rally above the recent ATH levels or not.
Gold is moving into a temporary topping pattern above $2600. I would think the 2613 level would be the ideal topping level for Gold - but I would expect Gold to struggle to move up to the 2613 level at this point.
Bitcoin is showing an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. I go into detail about this pattern and what we need to look for over the next few weeks.
Ultimately, I believe the markets are moving into a transitional price rollover ahead of the election.
Plan, prepare, and Get Some.
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Markets Finding Equilibrium Before FOMCAll major indexes and broad market advancing today with the US CPI/PPI combo causing some big recoveries since the post Labor Day selloff.
Momentum goes to the bulls for now until price proves otherwise. FED likely to cut 25 bps next week with more to come by end of year. It's amazing how quickly sentiment can shift like it did with Aug 1-5 and after, and again Sep 3-6 and after.
I hope you enjoy today's video. Friday's close for the day and week will be important and perhaps it's all quiet on the western front heading into FOMC next week where price can be excitable and volatile, but we'll do our best to navigate everything.
Thanks for watching!!! See you in the markets.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : GOLD Breakout WINNERGetting through my morning with phone calls and coding - I took a break to check on the markets and what did I see? A huge breakout rally in GOLD.
This huge move higher (+$40) is a massive win for those who followed my Plan You Trade Videos.
I've been saying any price move above $2565-$2575 would be a gift and traders should attempt to BOOK PROFITS as Gold moves above these levels. I warned not to hold positions above $2585-2593.
In fact, I'm expecting a bit of a metals flash-crash event to take place near mid-October.
But, today is a winner day for gold traders. A HUGE WINNER day.
I'm so happy to hear from all of you about your success with my Plan Your Trade videos.
This is what it is all about - help you become a more skilled trader.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 9-12 : BreakAway PatternMuch like yesterday's pattern, today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY.
I believe today's price move will be more muted than yesterday's big rally off the 540 lows.
Combining the 830 jobs data with price expectations is difficult. I believe jobs data will be relatively soft, and traders will interpret that as the Fed may decrease rates before the end of this year. But I believe traders will be wrong, and the markets will flatten out this afternoon (after some morning volatility).
Ultimately, the Fed is very confident that it will leave rates where they are unless something breaks. And because of that, I believe traders are trying to WISH the Fed into making a move.
Because of this dynamic, I believe hedge assets will continue to melt upward and we will move into a fairly consolidated price period between now and the Nov 5 election.
Overall, I believe most of today's price action will take place before Noon ET. Buckle up and prepare to take the afternoon off if my research is correct.
Get some.
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