BTC RE ENTRY NOV 28 2024bitcoin again giving you chance to re enter. The green box would be the safest but it can fly from here itself.Always define your risk & reward
QQQ
Holiday Markets and All Markets Spot CheckLimited trading for the remainder of the week in the US with Thanksgiving
We've notched a few all-time highs in the US markets but without any major surges. Low volume and light activity have been pretty apparent as the post election rips have settled down somewhat.
US data still in line before FOMC on Dec 18. Current FED Watch Tool showing a 64% probability of the FED still cutting 25 bps before end of year. This will be an important message from the FED to the markets on how the FED plans to adjust monetary policy in 2025 (pause, hold, cut, hike).
DXY and USD related crosses showing signs of nice movement (weaker dollar). Let's see if that is a stronger reversal pattern with follow through as many USD pairs are at strong support/resistance levels to show some reactions.
I'm not aggressively positioning on anything currently. If the melt-up continues, it's pretty easy and steady gains. If we have any flinch or pullback before end of year, I'll have my hedges in profit to help offset drawdowns. The best path for me is management both ways and inexpensive protection to the downside.
Thanks for watching!!!
2024-11-27 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
nasdaq e-mini futures
comment: Market tested the 50% retracement to the tick and reversed up. It also closed above the daily 20ema, so bulls remain in control but barely. Clear triangle on the daily chart and it has room for 1-2 more days but it could also break out big time tomorrow.
current market cycle: Bull trend but also nested triangle on the daily chart
key levels : 20500 - 21500
bull case: First target is a break above 2100 and we would likely see giving up by the bears then and no more resistance until 21340. If bulls fail here and the bull trend line from August breaks, market is free to crash down to 18000.
Invalidation is below 20500.
bear case: Bears need strong follow through selling below 20700 or we won’t see lower prices. 20850 is around the mid point of the triangle and my line in the sand for bears. If they manage to keep it below, we could test down to 20700 and maybe break below.
Invalidation is above 21000.
short term: Neutral. Either wait for a bigger breakout or play the range.
medium-long term: If we stay above 20500, will likely rally more into year end before a bigger correction.
current swing trade: Nope
trade of the day: Selling the US open. Market traded below the 2m 20ema for 240 points down.
5 SPIRALS DUE 11/29 to 12/2 The chart posted is the updatedThe chart posted is my SPIRAL turns focus point it is 11/29 to 12/2 I feel rather strong that the markets are set for the NEXT TIMING TURN I AM RATHER BEARISH As you can see I am labeling the wave count and have NOT changed anything . Best of trades WAVETIMER
YEN CARRY TRADE ABC RALLY ENDED LOOK FOR 136 /129The chart posted is the yen carry trade We bottomed into my target 138 and then rallied just past my orginal abc target of 155.10 I now feel the the SH!T Is going to HIT THE FAN in ASSETS . Best of Trades THE WAVETIMER
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-27: BreakAway PatternHappy day before Thanksgiving, everyone.
Stay safe this holiday and remember to share hugs and love with all the people that are the most important in your life.
Trading will be there tomorrow and the next day - always.
Family, health, and loved ones always come before trading/work.
Today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY. I suspect the SPY will still struggle near the 600 level and possibly REJECT into a downward price trend over the next 5+ trading days.
The QQQ is showing a very clear Flagging formation whereas the SPY is showing more overall strength.
Gold and Silver make a big GAP move higher. This is nice to see. I still believe Gold will attempt to rally above $3000 before the end of 2024 and Silver will attempt to rally above $35 before the end of 2024.
Bitcoin is now moving into a projected consolidation phase. The pending breakdown phase may see Bitcoin move down to the $74k to GETTEX:82K level. Buckle up.
Remember, we are going to have Thanksgiving holiday and shortened trading hours. If you have not already moved a large portion of your capital into CASH, you could be taking unwanted risks.
Get some.
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BTC ANALYSIS 26TH NOV 2024If this demand zone works then we will see 100,000 for sure. The trade has already given us entry today. Now we are tradjng it with SL mentioned in the chart
META Aggressive bullish flowConsolidating.
I have noticed a very aggressive bullish flow coming in everyday.
I am watching a break above the trendline for a possible move back towards $600
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-26 : Inside-BreakawayAs we move closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, I want to remind traders that low liquidity is likely to drive extreme price swings throughout the markets this week and next.
Many traders are already "taking a break" from the markets right now - so please trade with CAUTION. Trade smaller positions and don't get trapped in anything you can't handle.
The markets will close on Thursday and have a half day on Friday. That means we are going to go about 3.5 days with no trading into early next week. Are you ready for that?
If not, get into a position where you can settle in through the holidays and relax. Come back to the markets on Monday/Tuesday next week.
I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to reject near the recent highs (yesterday) and for Gold and Silver to move into a bullish recovery phase after yesterday's selling pressure.
The one thing I would warn trades about today is the potential for a low-liquidity BREAKDOWN in price for the SPY/QQQ as well as Gold & Silver.
If there is some financial (US Treasuries) or breakdown event that prompts the markets into some type of Flash Crash - everything will go down.
I'm not saying this IS going to happen - but it COULD happen.
So, be prepared just in case.
Bitcoin is struggling to find any support throughout this downtrend. I suspect the $72-$77k level may be the final support for BTCUSD.
Buckle up. We could be in for a wild ride.
Get some.
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Custom Crash Index Indicates Global Markets Are PanickingI believe the global markets are panicking related to Trump's pending inauguration and the fact that the US Fed may have to keep interest rates elevated through a US austerity process.
If you understand what this means, you'll clearly see why the US Dollar is trading above 106 and why Gold/Silver have moved downward recently.
The process of the US moving into smaller government with potentially $1.?T in excess capital means the US would move into a dynamic BEAST of a global economy. Able to pay down debt, restructure government agencies to become more efficient and lean, while pushing global economies closer and closer to having to clean up their own mess.
This is what I call the Predatory Fed.. and will likely prompt some very big price moves over the next 4-5+ years.
Get some.
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SPX to new ATH till next CPIThe correction is over and now SPX is looking at new ATH till Dec 11. Invalidated if breaks below the green line.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-25-24 - Carryover TrendToday's pattern is a Carryover in Trend mode. Obviously, this is a holiday week, and because of low liquidity, I expect to see moderately wild price volatility.
Stay cautious, as price moves could be exaggerated this week.
Gold and Silver are still attempting to break higher and trading in a consolidated sideways price channel.
BTCUSD pauses into the holiday week.
This would be a good week to pause, read a good book, and avoid the risks in the global markets.
This shortened trading week will likely result in very wild price swings.
Stay cautious.
Get some.
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Gold Spot intraday setup. The Pushmi - Pullyu animalRemember Dr. Dolittle? He was a vet who could talk to animals. One of the rarest was the “pushmi-pullyu,” a llama with two heads (one head was where the ass ought to be).
The pushmi-pullyu was a gentle creature that did not like to be stared at. And yet the other animals in Africa convinced him to go with the good Dr., and be put on display in Europe, because Dr. Dolittle was a kind soul who needed money to look after all the animals in his “care”.
It's gone a bit since Gold explosion last week, due to Biden's gaffe to authorize the yellow/blues regime use US-made missiles inside Russia's legal area, while the rods of Russia's retribution hanged like the sword of Damocles over all of Europe, on the basis of reciprocity.
Last week Gold spot added +153 US Dollars just in 5 Days. That was the best in history ever 1-week return, since January, 1980. Additionally, in percentage points Gold spot added +5.97 percent in a week. It was the 3rd best 1-week return over past decade.
Gold spot in Euro OANDA:XAUEUR at the same time continues its gain 11th straight month in a row.
The main intraday graph is for Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD , and it indicates that Gold has retraced a bit to its key $2670 level (that was discussed in earlier published ideas), and ready to take Adv. again, since Trump-a-rally rolled out into the all-the-world fart.
QQQ I Continued growth within the ascending channelWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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Stock Market Analysis| TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOG MSFTStock Market Analysis| TSLA NVDA AAPL AMZN META GOOG MSFT
Entering a Bull Market for the Russell 2000From a weekly chart perspective, the Russell 2000 ETF is showing a rounded bottom formation. Coupled with Trump-era policies encouraging reshoring and boosting local consumption, this has been a positive catalyst for small-cap stocks.
While the S&P 500 remains strong, the Nasdaq, particularly tech stocks like semiconductors, has already experienced varying degrees of pullback.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-22: Tmp-Bottom PatternToday's Temp-Bottom pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move downward - trying to find support.
If this pattern plays out as I suspect, we'll see the SPY and QQQ move lower, with the SPY attempting to move to the 588-590 area and the QQQ attempting to move to the 499-500 area.
I still believe the current setup promotes a breakdown in price based on the current Flagging formation related to the broad Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Nothing tells me the markets are going to rally at this stage. Unless we get above the Peak levels of these patterns, the most logical outcome is a breakdown in price leading to a Phase #3 EPP consolidation low.
Gold and Silver are starting to make a very big recovery rally - just as I suggested weeks ago.
It is great to see this move in Gold - although Silver is lagging a bit. Silver will rally, but it will rally slower than Gold at this point.
There is a real chance Gold could be trading above $3000 before the end of 2024. Buckle up.
BTCUSD came within $1000 of my $100,500 target level overnight. WOW.
This last $1000 move higher should be reached today.
Once we get above $100,500 on BTCUSD, expect it to try to roll into a new pullback and setup a new EPP Flagging formation.
That is what price does, it is either TRENDING or FLAGGING.
Get some.
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MU GETTING READY FOR DEC 2024MU is getting ready for a breakout We should see $128 soon. It started consolidation on 5th August 2024 & today is Nov 11,2024 & should consolidate further.
I will post when Big green candle is expected but for now I have started creating long positions in MU.
Tech on the Edge: SMH vs. QQQ Signals Caution Amid Bull MarketIntroduction:
While we remain enthusiastic about the strength of the current bull market, emerging signs of stress in capital flows warrant a closer look, particularly in the tech sector. One key metric to monitor is the ratio between semiconductors (SMH) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). This ratio acts as a barometer for tech sector health: when SMH outperforms QQQ, it indicates a risk-on environment; conversely, QQQ outperforming SMH raises caution flags.
Analysis:
Tech Sector Barometer: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio has historically been a reliable indicator of momentum in the tech sector. Outperformance by SMH reflects strong demand for semiconductors and broader tech health, while underperformance signals potential concerns.
Emerging Concern: Currently, we’re observing the potential development of a rounding top formation in the SMH-to-QQQ ratio. While this formation isn’t confirmed, a breakdown below key support would validate it, signaling broader weakness in the tech sector.
Critical Inflection Point: For now, chip bulls must take control and push this ratio higher to maintain sector strength and prevent a broader pullback in the market. Failure to do so could signal a shift in sentiment and increased vulnerability in tech stocks.
Conclusion:
The SMH-to-QQQ ratio is at a critical juncture, with the potential to dictate near-term momentum in the tech sector. While the bull market remains intact, any confirmed weakness in this ratio could signal broader vulnerability in tech stocks. Will chip bulls step up to defend the sector, or are we on the cusp of a pullback? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio, the potential rounding top formation, and key support levels)
Tags: #Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #MarketTrends #TechnicalAnalysis
Update: GOLD, SILVER, NVDA, SPDR Sectors, SPY, QQQ & MoreThe markets are really struggling this morning.
The strong selling after the open is likely an indication traders are not buying into the hype right now.
NVDA earnings hit and drove the markets a bit higher into the open. I see this selling pressure as a BIG SHIFT into my Anomaly Event.
Gold & Silver are reacting to the downside.
SPTD sectors, particularly XLE (Energy) is still showing strong upward trends - while many of the others have already started to move downward.
I'm watching XLF and XLRE for a breakdown event.
The SPY & QQQ are showing broad weakness right now.
Prepare for my Price Anomaly Event.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-21 : Harami Inside PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will consolidate in a Harami-Inside day type of price action.
In today's video, I highlight the continued potential for a price Anomaly event, even though we are seeing mostly post-election bullish price activity.
I do believe the proposed Anomaly event is highly likely headed into the Thanksgiving & Christmas holiday season.
Gold and Silver may stall a bit before attempting to rally further. Silver is not reacting similar to Gold, thus I have concerns that metals may stall a bit before attempting a bigger move higher.
BTCUSD is on track to rally up to $100k - just as I predicted.
Get some today.
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Market Snapshot - MSTR is a monster + NVDA earnings and HedgingNVDA beat top and bottom estimates after market today.
Due to it's 3.58T market cap, let's see where the SPY/QQQ are trading Thursday post NVDA earnings.
MSTR making headlines as one of the top traded stocks (behind NVDA) and it continues to surge and even outperform BTC in a big way - great gains but be careful of the rocket ship runs because they tend to end violently.
I also spend time reviewing my full watchlist in stocks, options, futures, and forex.
Thanks for watching!!!
NVDA Predictive Modeling Outlook : Pre Earnings 11-20-24I thought I would have a little fun with my ADL Predictive Modeling system.
This shows the Daily & Weekly predictive results for NVDA prior to the earnings data release.
Have fun.
This is really just to show you how the ADL system works and to test the outcome related to NVDA's earnings/outcome.
Get some..
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