SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-30 : Bullish POP PatternToday's POP Pattern in Carryover mode suggests the SPY will attempt to move above $550-551 on moderate bullish trending.
I believe the way the patterns are set up, the price will attempt a moderate rally with the POP pattern. Then, move into mild consolidation (downward trending) on tomorrow's Counter-trend Bottom-Rally Start. Then, move into a moderately explosive upward/bullish phase on Thursday/Friday with the BaseRally301 and Breakaway patterns.
Overall, I see the SPY/QQQ moving into the new Vortex Rally Phase over the next 30 to 90+ days, which will present incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
I'm only trying to predict one week at a time. The last time I did this, I tried to predict three weeks into the future. The more time I include (further out into the future), the more likely my predictions will be incorrect regarding price location/range.
So, we will keep this simple - going one week at a time.
I hope you guys are benefiting from all my hard work. It took me over 20 years to learn enough to figure out these SPY Cycle Patterns. You guys are getting a taste of them for Free on TradingView.
What do you think so far?
Get some.
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QQQ
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade EOD 7-29 - Prepare For Tomorrow's POPThis is an end-of-day recap of the Flat/Down SPY Cycle Pattern - which played out perfectly.
As I warned, this type of pattern suggests the SPY will stay in a consolidated range and attempt to drift downward throughout the day. This type of pattern presents a very difficult day for day traders.
Tomorrow's POP pattern should be very exciting. I'm reading the POP pattern as a Carryover of trending.
Because of this, I'm suggesting tomorrow's POP pattern may present a strong rally trend - possibly attempting to move above $554-555 on the SPY.
If my research is accurate, tomorrow should be a great day for day traders and present some real opportunities for profits.
Hope you are all enjoying my work. Let me know what you think.
Get Some.
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NQ Long (NDX, QQQ)NQ is showing the first signs of recovery from its recent decline. The overall decline and first day of recovery is structurally similar to the last pullback in April. Price has pushed through the bottom BB and is starting to bounce back inside. RSI has turned up on the daily after being pushed below the lower threshold which has only happened 3 times this year and price has bounced each time. Given that the latest PCE was on target, rate cuts appear to be within sight. For the period between now and when the first rate cut actually occurs, I think NQ will rally to the previously developing POC around 20,000.
The 20,000 level is also supported by a massive open interest for QQQ 496 calls (image linked below) which roughly works out to the 20k NQ level. The call wall should act as a progressively stronger magnet since MMs will buy the underlying to hedge their exposure. It will also act as a major resistance which is why my final scale out is a range to be adjusted as the trade progresses.
Risks
There is a lot of uncertainty at the moment, so these assumptions are based on macro data meeting forecasts and the remaining MAG7 earnings being neutral to favorable. If the remaining MAGs miss on earnings, then I expect a drop to around 18,500.
QQQ Open Interest
drive.google.com
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update 7/29 - Flat/Down PatternThis mid-day update highlights the SPY Cycle Pattern prediction and how to trade short-price swings as price contests into a sideways channel.
The Flat/Down pattern is usually a congesting type of price pattern. Price trends are smaller and traders need to learn to adjust to taking quick profits.
These types of days are sometimes difficult for traders who are used to swinging for the fences. Days like today mean "grab profits quickly and try to eliminate risks within the first 10-20 minutes."
I highlight this method in the video showing my new MENT Pressure System setups.
Pay attention to how the SPY Cycle Patterns seem to be aligning again (after the Kamala-Crush). this is good to see, as we want the SPY/QQQ price to move back in alignment with the SPY Cycle Patterns after the recent disruption.
Looks like we may slide into a sideways price trend throughout the rest of the day.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 7-29 : Flat/Down PatternPrepare for a fairly mild day today with the Flat/Down SPY Cycle Pattern.
This pattern suggests the SPY will struggle to find any real trend and will stay relatively flat overall with a moderate downward price trend.
Watch this video. We are in the early stages of a broader Vortex Rally phase - but price will continue to roll higher and lower through cycles. Today's Flat/Down pattern is not a big concern for me. I'm more focused on the broader Vortex Rally phase and how that will continue throughout 2024 and into 2025.
If my research is correct, we are shifting into a new broad price trend that could be explosive. The greatest opportunity of your life is sitting right before you.
If you have not been paying attention to my research/work/tools - maybe it's time to start paying closer attention to what I'm saying.
The next 3~5+ years should be filled with incredible opportunities for skilled traders.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-28 - Vortex Rally Phase InitiatesGood afternoon everyone,
This Sunday update highlights my SPY Cycle Patterns for next week and discusses my belief that the US stock market has entered a new Vortex Rally Phase.
For those unfamiliar with my extended research, every weekend, I spend more than 10 hours creating Custom Index charts and reviewing other proprietary data points while attempting to determine an outcome related to capital flows, expectations, and global market trends.
It's not like I sit here trying to study every global market. I have about 20+ Custom Index charts/data points that show me most of the data I need to see; then, I attempt to verify my expectations by looking at other data points/charts.
I'm seeing the start of a Vortex Rally (as I call it). This is something very important for traders to understand and is clearly defined in this video.
Get ready. We will see a solid US Stock market MELT-UP over the next 12+ months.
Get some
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QQQ: Will Start Growing! Here is Why:
Remember that we can not, and should not impose our will on the market but rather listen to its whims and make profit by following it. And thus shall be done today on the QQQ pair which is likely to be pushed up by the bulls so we will buy!
❤️ Please, support our work with like & comment! ❤️
SPX | The Sleeping PilotTraders have made the ultimate mistake, they were caught sleeping on the steering wheel.
And after missing the trend, they attempt to enter it again, only to realize that they have trapped themselves.
A question arises: Were they sleeping or are they performing a suicide attack?
SPX is like a sharp kamikaze plane. Perhaps of Japanese origin, closing in to Perl Harbor.
A wise one should never cut towards them. A knife pointing upwards can only kill bulls.
If they wish prices to go up, they must turn the knife down, to kill any bears that step in their way.
But it seems though the markets are not wise right now.
A successful kamikaze is a fearless kamikaze.
All was well when the soldier was certain of their attack. SPX has been moving in perfect correlation with fearless index, aka VVIX / VIX ratio (orange line).
But now they have second thoughts. And that is their weakness.
SPX is heading upwards with growing fear right now.
VVIX/VIX is the thought, SPX is the action. We are in a jet lag, in no mans land.
The seconds before the pilot moves the joystick back instead of forward.
This is not the first time we are dealing with a soldier who is having second thoughts.
Once in 2018...
...another one in 2020...
...and finally in 2021.
This fight is almost over for the bulls.
Question is: Who will win the war?
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
P.S. Many have made jokes about the POTUS as being sleepy.
Never call someone something you don't want to be called yourself.
QQQ Massive Long! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the QQQ next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 463.00
Bias - Bullish
Safe Stop Loss - 454.70
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 475.34
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ --- AI Tech Bubble Keeps GrowingRight now, not much seems to be stopping the bubble in Tech. You can see we broke above resistance on June 11th and have not looked back. I was expecting some form of test of support, like back in July 2020, but instead any pullback has been bought up. Volume is low and that means that everyone is long to go along for the ride. If we get a run up like back in August 2020, we could top out at the $550 range.
We are in the region of extra hard to predict what will happen next. Without a clear reason to sell, this can keep going. I would expect to see some form of profit taking that could make for a bigger pullback, but so far nothing. I think the saying "The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent" comes to mind.
I am curious if we are in for a case of "buy the rumor, sell the news" when it comes to interest rate cuts. Maybe this will keep going up until we actually get a rate cut.
1D
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-26 Base/Support Rally PatternThe markets are struggling to break away from the morning congestion.
I, personally, want to see the SPY move above $550-551 (filling the gap) before I'm going to consider any potential upward trend.
The past few days have been frustrating for me and my Cycle Patterns. The Kamala-Crush, as I call it, came out of nowhere and crushed the market trend.
The SPY was holding up fairly well on Monday/Tuesday this week but was crushed on Wednesday - the Day of Biden's resignation and Kamala's take-over. I see this as traders/investors actively moving capital away from risks and profits.
Now that we are nearing the end of the week, the dust will settle, and we'll move back to more normal types of trading/trending.
In the next few weeks, SPY Cycle Patterns show moderate upside trending. It should be fun.
Remember, stay focused on your objectives and learn to develop proper risk containment for your trading.
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NVDA is below the split lows and the daily 50 SMA.NASDAQ:NVDA confirmed the daily 50 SMA down today, following the NASDAQ:SMH last week. NASDAQ:NVDA also lost the split lows in similar fashion to NASDAQ:AVGO last week. The weakness in semiconductors contributed to the sell-off in technology names today, which provided an excellent opportunity for shorts. Watch for any gap ups in technology names to get sold off and confirm the previous day's lows, which will confirm the short for further trades to the downside, as we enter a seasonally weak time for technology.
TSLA weekly chart shows confluence.NASDAQ:TSLA weekly chart shows that it is coming into key demand areas around $205 to $215. The weekly chart shows a Wyckoff accumulation phase since the 2021 all-time high at $414.50, with a spring during Phase C at the recent lows below $140. This corresponds to the bottom of the cup, with Phase D of accumulation corresponding to the handle. A close over the weekly 200 SMA, currently at $232, will give room to the weekly 150 SMA supply. Reclaiming these weekly supply zones may lead to a break of the weekly handle, and a push up to the final weekly supply zones of the weekly upper Bollinger Band and upper weekly 100 linear regression channel ahead of $300 during Phase E, which may start at the end of this year or into next year. The trade is invalidated below the weekly 20 SMA, which is currently at $187.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 7-26 - Top/Resistance Counter-TrendToday's Counter-trend pattern is a Top/Resistance pattern.
This pattern usually reflects a price peak setup - rolling into a downward price trend. But it is in a Counter-trend formation today - so we should expect a base/bottom setup rolling into a bullish price trend.
This video covers the SPY/QQQ/Gold, and I expect the "Kamala-Shakeout" may be nearly over in terms of market disruption (at least for now).
I strongly believe this is a moderate price shakeout. Traders are reacting to the new Democratic nominee (Kamala Harris) and the sudden change in expectations related to the Presidential election outcome.
I could be wrong, but it makes sense to me that this sudden change would be reflected throughout the global markets as a repositioning of capital (related to risks).
Let's see if the markets can hold this base/bottom setup over the past 2 days.
I really want to see the SPY above $550~551 to settle above my A/B level related to risks. A move back above $550-551 would indicate price has rejected the current downward swing.
Get some.
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NQ | QQQ | Day trading plan 7-26-2024CME_MINI:NQU2024
Bullish Scenario
Immediate Resistance Levels:
Bullish Line: : 19,115.75
Target Price 1: 19,168.75
Target Price 2: 19,278.50
Strategy:
Entry: Consider entering a long position above the immediate resistance at 19,115.75.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss below the nearest support at 19,041.75 to minimize risk.
Targets: Set targets at the resistance levels mentioned above. Partial profit-taking can be considered at each target level.
Confirmation: Look for bullish candlestick patterns or confirmation from volume indicators before entering the trade.
Bearish Scenario
Immediate Support Levels:
Bearish Line: 19,065.00
Target Price 1: 19,041.75
Target Price 2: 18,998.75
Target Price 3: 18,932.00
Strategy:
Entry: Consider entering a short position if the price breaks below the Bearish Line at 19,065.00.
Stop Loss: Place a stop loss above the nearest resistance at 19,115.75 to minimize risk.
Targets: Set targets at the support levels mentioned above. Partial profit-taking can be considered at each target level.
Confirmation: Look for bearish candlestick patterns or confirmation from volume indicators before entering the trade.
Summary
Bullish Entry: Above 19,115.75 with targets at 19,168.75 and 19,278.50.
Bearish Entry: Below 19,065.00 with targets at 19,041.75, 18,998.75, and 18,932.00.
Stop Losses: Adjust according to the nearest support/resistance levels to manage risk.
This analysis should be used in conjunction with other indicators and market conditions for a comprehensive trading strategy.
Weekly Recap & Market Forecast $SPX (July 21st —>July 26th)Market Forecast (Updated 07/21/2024)
**SPX**-Rotation into small caps and industrial stocks continue, which led to more sell off in SPX
We have a lot of earnings coming up this week so that can shift the direction of the market as well.
Next resistance $5655and $5688
Next support $5521 and 5428
Weekly Sentiment = Bearish
**Chart Analysis:**
()
**Dollar Index:**
DXY- Looks like the dollar index found support as the euro weakens. Which means we could see further drop in SPX.
Next resistance $105.90
Support $104
Sentiment = Crossover to upside
**Put to call Ratio: 1.31 —> 1.15
Next FOMC date: July 31, 2024**
**Fear & Greed Index: 56—>49**
Is the market crashing? The SPY and IWM have completely diverged.
On the back of rate cut expectations, many investors are piling back into the junk and high beta names.
A clear relative strength move has occurred in small caps: IWM
Whilst the megacap stocks have been sold off.
The SPY sliced through the 50 MA yesterday and cofirmed the break below.
Although this is typically bearish, we are getting into an area of oversold support.
If the SPY gaps down tomorrow, I think traders will be buying the dip with both hands.
The IWM has blasted above the 50MA, basically moving the exact opposite of the S&P500.
The question remains....are small caps going to hold their gains inside of the weekly topping tail?
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 EOD Wrap-up - Kamala-CrushThis is an End Of Day wrap-up related to the continued downward price trends the US markets are experiencing.
As I continue to research why the US markets are contracting so suddenly, the only thing that makes sense to me is what I call the "Kamala-Factor."
Suddenly, last weekend, Kamala Harris went from the sidelines to front-n-center.
Monday, everyone talked about Kamala Harris as the new Dem candidate after Biden pulled out of the race.
By Tuesday night, Kamala Harris had secured enough delegates for the Dem nomination.
Wednesday morning - the markets CRASHED.
Today, we saw a little bounce near support, but the markets continued to sell downward into the close.
As far as I'm concerned, this is actually FEAR related to Kamala's policies, plans, and leadership. Traders/investors are suddenly moving capital away from sectors they believe could be at risk of a further collapse.
This is the only reasonable response to the sudden collapse of the major US indexes—gold, Silver, Oil, Transportation Index, and others—while the VIX suddenly shot up to 18+.
The short story Kamala Harris scares people, particularly investors/traders and large investment firms. As a result, they are moving capital away from risk factors before the US POTUS election.
We need to see the US markets find support, or we could be in for a deeper market downturn.
Get some...
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MidCap vs. LargeCap. Technical & Fundamental Levels to WatchThe Russell 2000 trailed the S&P 500 significantly in 2023, gaining about 17% compared to a gain of about 24% for the large cap index. That underperformance has spilled over into 2024.
As of July 10, 2024 the Russell 2000 YTD is about Zero compared to a 17.75% gain in the S&P 500 (SPX) and 23.50 gain in Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC).
By the way, that valuation measures make the small cap Russell 2000 index much more compelling when compared to the S&P 500.
Small caps relative to the S&P 500 on a price-to-book basis is back to where it was in 1999.
As of June 30, 2024 small caps price-to-book (P/B) ratio is 2.10, as it described on FTSE Russell 2000 Index Factsheet, while Total US Market (Russell 3000) P/B ratio is 4.42.
I'll be brief. Perhaps it will be the briefest brief over the past ten god years I'm here on TV.
DON'T MISS IT, AS IT ONE PER LIFE OPPORTUNITY.
The main technical graph is ratio between RUT (Russell 2000 Index) and S&P500 Index, and it back to support that was never seen over the past 25 years, since March 1999.
What's happened with market at these times?
⭐ Nasdaq Composite Index doubled in price over the next 12 months (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 4x down.
⭐ S&P500 Index printed +20 per cents (March, 1999 - March, 2000), than turned 2x down.
⭐ March 1999 was the absolute low and was a launch point of 12 years of outperformance for Small caps vs Large caps.
Will history repeat itself..? Who knows... But personally I believe - Yes, it can.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 7-25 : Temp-Bottom UpdateGood afternoon everyone,
Today's Temp-Bottom pattern played out perfectly after what I'm calling the Kamala-Shakeout on 7/24.
The SPY price is struggling to find support near the 2x StdDev lower channel and appears to have bounced higher into a new short/intermediate-term Bullish price trend.
If you've been following my research, you already know how powerful and accurate my SPY Cycle Patterns are and how they do not take into account news, politics, or other outside crisis events. They are psychologically reflective of Fibonacci/Gann price cycles/structures—nothing else.
I believe the SPY will attempt to squeeze higher into the close today, setting up another bottom-reversal pattern tomorrow (a counter-trend Top Reversal). The Counter-trend type suggests the pattern will be inverted.
If my analysis is correct, we'll see the SPY move into a more solid Bullish price trend by tomorrow and then continue to try to break above the $560 level again.
Here we go...
Get some
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SPY on weekly stays the course LONGSPY on the weekly chart is up 25% in the past six months. This is beyond its historical norms
even during a presidential election year. While there has been some volatility in both directions
the climb is consistent and persistent. The indicators serve to document this. The predictive
algo predicts more of the same. A price cut when the fed gets around to it will serve to sustain
the trend. Lack of it through the summer may cause a fade of momentum. Make hay while the
sun shines.