Noise, S&P Scenario, Gold BubbleThank you to the tradingview community for engaging and supporting my content.
After another rough start to the week, we have a bit of a crossroads ahead for the S&P
1) We revisit the April 7 lows and poke lower with bear trap opportunities
2) We hold Monday April 21 lows and grind back up to gap fill and revisit 5400-5500 resistance
3) We go nowhere with a lot of intraday volatility and noise (between the April 7 low and the April 9 high)
The markets are on high alert
DXY
Gold
Bitcoin
US Bonds vs Treasuries (yields rising)
Trump is more vocal about threatening the FED or firing Powell and the concern is truly unprecedented
Trade War pause is still ongoing, China is being vocal as well to make sure countries don't simply line up to support the US. For all of this to calm down, US and China have to play nice. China is likely able to hold the line longer than the US in the near-term
Thanks for watching!!!
QQQ
$TSLA in penalty box. Stock remains range bound. After the new administration was elected in Nov 2024, AMEX:TSLY stock had a huge bull run since then. It doubled between Nov 2024 to Dec 2024. Since the stock has sold off heavily and has lost more than 50% of its value. It recently bounced back from the lows of 214 $ which was the 0.785 Fib Retracement level if we plot the Fib levels from its highs to the lows. And then it bounced back lower 254 $ which is the 0.618 Fib Level.
AMEX:TSLY is steadily trading within these 2 Fib levels and seems that it fails to break out of this pattern. The stock seems to build a base between 250 and 214 which can be a good place to accumulate the stock. With Elon distracted by DOGE affairs it seems we are missing any catalyst for this stock. So NASDAQ:TSLA fans can keep on accumulating here and wait for a breakout. But to all my NASDAQ:TSLA fans there are already breaks out in other large caps in progress. Look at $MSFT. More regarding NASDAQ:MSFT in the upcoming blogs
Verdict: NASDAQ:TSLA accumulate between 214 – 250 $ if you need to. Else look for other mega caps.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-21 : Inside Breakaway PatternToday's Inside Breakaway pattern may not show up as I would expect.
An Inside Breakaway pattern suggests the OPEN will be within the Body range of the previous bar - I don't see that happening today.
The Breakaway portion of the pattern is much more likely to happen today with Gold/Silver moving much higher and BTCUSD moving slightly higher today. It appears Safe-Haven assets are THE THING right now.
That would suggest the US Dollar and US-Dollar based assed would continue to fall (move downward) as devaluation and contraction in the global economy continues to play out.
If you watched my video (posted late last night), you already know my data suggests there is almost no reason for the markets to mount a rally right now. The only thing I can see that would drive a big rally from these lows would be some incredible news that the world is immediately going back to somewhat normal in terms of GCB spending and Global Trade. I don't see that happening.
I know there are a lot of emotions related to these Tariff wars and global trade. Heck, almost anything that goes on in the world right now is full of emotions.
I urge all traders to STEP BACK. Think of the markets like an engine that runs on the quality of AIR, FUEL, SPARK, LUBRICATION, STRUCTURAL MECHANICAL PARTS, & INTAKE/OUTPUT CAPACITY.
If you start to think about the markets (global markets) as a big engine, while thinking of individual economies (by country) as smaller engines, it starts to make a little more sense (at least in my mind).
Every country runs its own engine (see the components above). If some of those components are failing, then that country's economy will falter a bit.
And that faltering economy may put additional pressure on the global economy/engine.
It takes a lot to destroy a functional economy. I mean A LOT. War, Total Destruction of government/law/society. Maybe even some type of internal conflict.
But, even then, the economy will still have roots and will fall back to core elements.
So, don't worry about all of these people telling you "the world is going to CRASH in the next 2 years because of Trump". That is highly unlikely.
What is more likely is that the world will "re-settle expectations" related to future growth and output. Strengthening economies where needed and building up the core elements of global trade/economies over many months.
So, if you are worried or don't know what to do right now, move your positions into CASH and wait it out a bit.
There will be lots of opportunities for you to pick the right time to start trading again.
There is no reason why you have to try to FORCE the markets to adhere to your wants (they never do that anyway).
Just wait it out, keep learning, and plan/time your trade efficiently.
Get some...
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QQQ, Weekly RSI has reached oversold territory just 4 other timeIt's also came at or near a long-term bottom.
If you're a long-biased trader looking for high-probability entries, this setup deserves your attention.
The weekly RSI just hit oversold territory — something that’s only happened 4 times in the last 10 years. Each of those times? It marked a major bottom or the start of a strong bullish trend.
We’re also bouncing near long-term horizontal support (~$420) and holding above a rising trendline that’s defined the bull market since 2018.
If price continues to hold this zone and RSI starts curling back up, I’ll be looking to go long.
Stop below $420. Reward-to-risk looks solid if momentum confirms.
Not calling the exact bottom — just positioning where the risk makes sense.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For The Week Of April 20-25 : CautionI want to thank all of you for the great comments and questions over the past few months.
I'm very impressed by all of you and how well many of you are picking up my techniques to improve your trading results.
This video is more of a Pre-Week review - telling you why I expect the markets to trade/trend a certain way over the next 5 to 25+ days (or longer).
Additionally, I want to remind all of you my research goes much deeper (behind the scenes) than what you see in these Plan Your Trade videos.
I know many of you rely on my morning videos and some of you have messaged me about how important my videos are in helping you prepare for the day's price range/trend.
Ultimately, I started doing these Plan Your Trade videos to highlight my SPY Cycle patterns and to prove my research is accurate and helpful. Obviously, if my technology/techniques were failures, I would be hearing about it from lots of people by now.
But that is not the case. It appears my SPY Cycle Patterns and other techniques/tools are very well appreciated and are really helping traders learn to build better skills for greater success.
And that is what this is all about.
Remember, I've been lucky enough to rub shoulders with some of the greatest traders/minds on the planet for the past 35+ years. Sometimes, we would sit down for Coffee and share ideas. Sometimes, they would hire me to explore something they thought was important (coding/research). At other times, we would simply show up at an event together and chat about life and the markets.
I was lucky.
I got into this industry in the late 1980s (a long time ago) and have continued to learn new things and build my skills over the past 35+ years.
Now, I'm trying to share some of that knowledge with all of you so you can carry this information forward and make a real difference in your life (finding success while trading).
One of the biggest things I continue to try to teach all of you is PATIENCE.
Right now, the markets are in a unique phase (consolidation in a downward trend). You are going to have to learn to WAIT for the best trade setups and try not to force the markets do to what you want.
If you are not sure what to trade, sit on the CASH until you see a better opportunity.
OK. This week, after Easter, should be fairly quiet. Tax day and Easter usually fall fairly close to one another. This year, they were on the same week.
The markets are usually very flat near Tax Day - so don't expect much in terms of trending.
Volatility is still elevated. So, we may see some wild price action this week. Trade smaller amounts if you are still unsure about direction/setups.
Get some...
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A Broader Market Review...As we have all seen within the last month or so, the U.S. equity markets have been getting the worst ass whooping since 2020. And as much as we'd like to forget that absolute disaster, it does bring to thought the idea of buying general market funds (such as AMEX:SPY , NASDAQ:QQQ , or AMEX:DIA ) to gain a nice entry into the next bull market, whenever that may be. However, not everything is all smooth sailing. The unfortunate part of this market downturn is that no amount of technical astrology fortune-telling analysis could have predicted the market's reaction to the tariffs being levied on foreign nations. So we need to put our big-boy pants on and look at the market as if it isn't some automatic wealth generating pattern that points north-east all day long.
Let's start with the tariffs. Firstly, we know there has been a 90 day pause on all conforming countries most notably leaving out China. It's not like that's anything special, just almost all our crap is made there. Unfortunately, we are observing what may be the greatest economic error of our lifetimes.
For those who are lost, foreign governments DO NOT pay for the tariffs in the way we are told. The U.S. Government levies the tariffs on the exporter (Chinese companies in this case), who then pass it on to the buyer of the goods (think Walmart, Target, Apple, etc.), who then pass those charges onto YOU... Enjoy!
So with an attempt at a full blown trade war, which the U.S. cannot win nor even has the industrial strength or infrastructure to compete, we can expect the markets to completely do a Bald Eagle courtship nosedive into new lows as observed a few weeks ago. But what will the Creature from Jekyll Island think of this?
Well miraculously, Fed chairman Jerome Powell claimed that the Fed will NOT allow the tariffs to exacerbate inflation into new highs. Get that, the Federal Reserve will not allow economic movements that raise prices on an importing nation ( that's the United States by the way), to raise prices anymore. While he's at it, how about we just get no inflation ever since it's just that simple?
And as if that wasn't enough, Donald Trump called for Jerome Powell to lower rates for some reason, saying that Powell was too late on his economic movement at the Fed. As it turns out, our plan for strengthening the economy is to.... weaken the dollar? Not sure why that's the case but at least we will be able to borrow more money at a cheaper price, as if the United States doesn't already have a debt problem. The Fed lowering rates would of course open the possibility of getting yet another wave of quantitative easing which will most likely be observed further down the road. Another round of QE, along with rate cuts, will of course send the equity markets to new highs on top of a weaker dollar.
Speaking of a weaker dollar, we should lastly talk about the TVC:DXY which measures the comparative strength of the U.S. Dollar to other currencies. As it turns out in this scenario, the dollar is getting weaker and weaker every day, meaning that people are running from U.S. Debt like it's the plague. If we were going to get a weaker dollar, at least could we have a higher market to offset our inevitable losses? I guess not...
Here is the TVC:DXY 1D looking back into late 2024.
Lastly for what to expect out of the market. If the trade situation will all the tariffs and this neo-cold war cool down, we might see some tariff pauses or lowering which will of course fire the market into new highs. However, if the situation doesn't cool, our debt yields rise, the market is going to go south faster than a Canadian in December. On a positive note, macroeconomic events move slowly, so it should be clear when a turnaround is coming...
MARKETS NOT OVERSOLD CAUTION! UPDATE!This is a monthly chart and TV keeps forcing "Target reached" on my updates. As such i am reposting this chart I first issued back on April 1st, 2025, before our "LIBERATION DAY" FACEPALM!
We are still not oversold on a monthly chart!
WARNING!
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MARKETS NOT OVERSOLD CAUTION!While only 36% of stocks are over the 20-day MA, they are nowhere near oversold conditions. As such, there is still room for the downside.
While this indicator is only suitable for short-term trading, tomorrow new making event could push markets way lower.
While I would not suggest trading news events. I know some do, as such bottom picking is not advisable.
CAUTION!
AAPL About to CRACK!Without Question, AAPL is the best company in the world and the most valuable. However, it means little in this economic landscape.
AAPL is about to start cracking here. I usually do not post them ahead like this, but in this situation, I will break my own rules.
Take your money and RUN!!!
WARNING!! GTFO!
Are US Tariffs Similar To The COVID-19 Global DisruptionThis video is in response to a question asked by one of my followers on TradingView.
He specifically asked if the current US Tariffs create a similar situation to the COVID-19 supply disruptions and how it may result in longer-term market disruptions.
In this video, I try to answer these questions and highlight the differences I see related to what is happening now vs. the COVID-19 shutdown.
It is an interesting question.
I certainly see similarities, but I also see vast differences in terms of how the global markets are attempting to address the US tariff issues.
First, the current tariff issues are somewhat self-inflicted, not something like COVID-19 (unavoidable).
Second, the global central banks acted in concert to present immense liquidity to support a global shutdown with COVID. I don't see that happening right now.
Supply-side disruptions are evident, but we'll see how they play out over the next 60- 90+ days.
Longer-term, I hope these tariff issues are resolved before the global economy moves into a deeper recession. I will state that hard assets are likely to take a hit over the next 60-90+ days across the globe.
Any moderate (think 15 to 35%) slowdown in production, shipping, and consumption across the globe is going to be felt all over the planet. It is not going to be isolated to just one or two areas.
This is the smackdown that I don't believe anyone is really ready for. And that creates the urgency to resolve the tariff issues asap.
Hope this helps.
Get Some.
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TSLA Eiffel Tower Not CompleteEiffel tower patterns are rare but very powerful TA structures when they develop.
They are very hard patterns to short since we can never know when the wave up ends. However, there is so much information we can extract from them during and after the collapse.
When they are rising and going vertical, and you happen to be in it. The benefits will be great! As the price action sucks in everyone all at once with virtually no sellers.
So, what info can we learn?
On the way up, when this is happening, you should have the ability to recognize it at some point without worrying if you got the top. Take your money and RUN!
Never try to get back in and try to chase it up!
Never try to short it, thinking it is too high, this is the top!
When it tops out, never buy the dip! Bc you know how this structure will end.
Never buy based on some silly FIB or bc it's down too much!
Never buy the base thinking it will go back to new all-time highs, and it is now safe to get back in bc it will only keep going lower, more through time, frustrating you until you puke it up.
So remember this gimmicky sound bite.
"If they don't scare you out, they will wear you out!"
Ain't nobody got time for that! Your money has a much better place to be allocated to make you money instead of being fixated on a chart like this.
The reason people get stuck is bc the move provoked emotion! Then, when they get involved thinking they will be Buffett tomorrow from this one trade, they will experience Euphoria, sadness, anger etc., further provoking even more emotions to the point they become obsessed! Guessing, waiting, hoping, doubling down on and on...
Ask me how I know! hahaha!
While I made a lot of money shorting GME, here is an example of an Eiffel tower with many, many people that have this trading disease I just spoke about.
In conclusion, anyone who believes that TSLA will hit $1,000 blah blah blah and suckered into buying it. You now know you are being honey dicked by a bunch of armatures and bots on X. Beyond TSLA there are many such charts out there tight now that have formed the beginnings of ET. As such, you should know how to recognize it quickly and avoid the pitfalls out there.FYI I called the Top on TSLA ))
Click Like, Follow, Subscribe to learn much more about real macroeconomics and technical analysis. Let me help you navigate these crazy markets.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video For 4-17 : Another BLANK dayToday's BLANK pattern in counter-trend mode is nothing to worry about.
As I research and document these patterns, there are patterns that appear frequently on the Daily price chart and there are others that appear more infrequently.
If I have not already marked these patterns and documented them, they have not appeared anywhere in the 11+ years of the Daily price data I use within the Lookup Engine.
Therefore, these are VERY RARE types of patterns - Extremely infrequent.
I will add that the secondary looking criteria show yesterday and today could be similar to "key top/bottom" types of price rotation. So, I do believe the current price level on the SPY (520-535) could prove to be very critical support/resistance going forward.
Tomorrow is Good Friday (no trading). So if you are going to take any trades today, make sure you remember to plan your exits for TODAY or NEXT WEEK (or later). You will not be able to exit stock/ETF trades tomorrow (sorry).
Gold is moving into a Momentum Rally, and I really want to see how that pattern plays out before the long holiday weekend.
Fingers crossed we see a BIG RALLY again today.
BTCUSD is still rolling into a downward price trend based on my EPP pattern structure. This downward trend aligns with my May 2 Major Bottom pattern for the SPY/QQQ. So I would expect BTCUSD to start to roll downward sometime near the middle/end of next week.
Remember, this weekend should be about your family, your friends, and your beliefs.
Relax and enjoy.
Get some...
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SPY CRACK! WARNING!We are in the "honey" phase in Stocks.
This is the part where they tell you:
-Don't panic
-Stocks are cheap forward EPS
-Nible on the way down
-Diversified portfolio wins..
-It's a stock picker's market
-There is a lot of cash on the sidelines
-It's just a reset
-It's a correction
-We needed this to shake out the weak hands
-Buy when there is blood in the streets, even if it's yours
-There is a lot of value in...
-This is your last chance to...
-This and that stock are going to $1,000
-Stocks are the best investment over the course of time
The list is endless to get you to buy or stay in and suck up the pain. They will "Future Fuke" you the world.
I will remind you that you cannot buy unless you first sell! No one has endless money, and your 1% addition monthly will not lower your cost basis.
All I can tell you is what this chart shows! A BIG CRACK!
WARNING!!!
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S&P 500 - Key Levels and April 7-11 Weekly Candle StructureApril 7-11 will easily be remembered in 2025 as one of the craziest weeks in modern history.
Intraday swings were face ripping all from a Monday "fake news" becoming Wednesday "real news" with the US pausing tariffs for 90 days
5500 major resistance on S&P
4800 major support on S&P
I believe the market will struggle to provide any clear direction in the coming weeks without some shift in narrative (for better or worse). I'm sure most traders are hoping for an optimistic tone but be prepared to be disappointed as the world's alliances and economies are being strained with massive uncertainty and angst.
There are trading opportunities in the short-term, but I'm not taking any major risks. If I can survive, the upside will be easier and a pleasant surprise.
I expect the weekly candles to dance inside the April 7-11 low and high levels and hopefully it provides some ventilation to a VIX > 30
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-15 : BLANK pattern day.As I stated in this video, last night I looked through the data and could not find any reference for this pattern going back more than 11 years. Same thing for tomorrow's pattern.
That means these are very RARE pattern setups and we'll have to watch to see how price action plays out today.
If there were no reference points over 11+ years of Daily price data (more than 2500 Daily Price Bars), then this is something very unique.
I believe today will act like a Reversal Bar. Potentially rallying off a lower opening price and setting up a type of Gap Lower Rally type of pattern - but that is just a guess.
At this point, trade smaller quantities until we see how price reacts this morning.
Gold and Silver make a BIG MOVE overnight - breaking above the $3300/$33 levels I suggested were critical psychological levels.
This is an INCREDIBLE rally in metals (thanks, China).
At this point, if you were long metals like I was, you can thank me all you want.
Be aware that metals will likely pause a bit above this psychological level, then start to move higher again.
The next big target is $3600-$3750 for Gold.
Bitcoin is doing exactly what I stated it would do - rolling into a top as demand for BTCUSD wanes. I believe the next low for BTCUSD will be closer to $60k-$63k. Pay attention.
Going to be a good day for everyone holding Gold/Silver/Miners CALLS (like I kept suggesting).
GOT SOME.
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SPY Weekly Options Trade Plan 2025-04-15AMEX:SPY SPY Weekly Analysis Summary (2025-04-15)
Below is an integrated view of the models’ findings:
─────────────────────────────
SUMMARY OF MODEL KEY POINTS
• Grok/xAI noted that on very short timeframes the price is a bit below key 5‑minute EMAs and near lower Bollinger Bands—with RSI and MACD giving mixed signals—but on the daily chart some bullish features (price above the 10‑EMA, a slight MACD bullish grace, and a max pain level at $549) hint at a potential mean reversion. Their “if forced” ramp suggested a call at the $549 strike, though overall confidence was low (≈55%).
• Gemini/Google’s report highlighted conflicting technical readings – the M5 setup looked bearish while the daily chart showed a little bullishness. Their integration of high but falling VIX and options open‑interest levels led to an overall neutral/unclear reading. Their recommendation was to refrain from entering a directional trade at open.
• Llama/Meta leaned toward a moderately bearish reading based on the short‐term indicators (price below key EMAs, bearish MACD on both charts) despite some daily support. They specifically recommended buying the $537 put option (even though the premium is higher than the “ideal” $0.30–$0.60 range) with a target profit roughly 50% above the cost and a stop when SPY breaches an upper resistance level—backed by a 70% confidence level.
• DeepSeek also synthesized mixed timeframes – pointing out that while the market holds some daily support, the intraday picture is muddled by technical conflict, expensive premium costs for the moves required, and time decay factors. Their view was to wait rather than initiate a new position.
─────────────────────────────
2. AREAS OF AGREEMENT AND DISAGREEMENT
• Agreement: All reports recognize that SPY (about $537.61) is trading near key short‑term support levels with significant options OI clustering. The falling VIX is universally noted as a positive sign for reducing fear even though overall volatility remains high.
• Disagreement:
– Grok’s report and to some extent the daily charts hint at a slight bias to the upside (supported by max pain at $549), suggesting a potential call wing trade.
– In contrast, Llama/Meta’s analysis and the very short‐term indicators (M5, lower Bollinger band, bearish MACD) point toward a bearish bias, recommending a put trade.
– Both Gemini/Google and DeepSeek, however, find the technical signals too mixed to have high confidence in initiating any naked single‑leg weekly option trade at open.
─────────────────────────────
3. CLEAR CONCLUSION
• Overall Market Direction Consensus:
The models collectively paint a picture of uncertainty. There is no clear, high‑conviction directional bias at the open. The short‑term (intraday) technicals lean bearish or at best neutral, while the daily chart and max pain argument hint at a potential slight mean reversion. Given these conflicting signals, the overall market direction remains neutral/unclear.
• Recommended Trade:
Based on the clash in opinions—only one model (Llama/Meta) would go short (with puts) while two models (Grok/xAI and Llama/Meta) suggest if forced a trade—and given that the majority (Gemini/Google and DeepSeek) advise against trading in the current conditions, the consensus is not to enter a new weekly options position at the market open.
– Strategy: Single‐leg, naked options (calls or puts)
– Expiration: Weekly options only (expiry April 17, 2025)
– Premium: Trading ideal premium range is $0.30–$0.60, but neither candidate in the call nor put space meets all our criteria with high conviction
– Entry Timing: At open would be the plan if a trade were to be placed
– Confidence: Overall confidence in any trade is low (<60%)
• Key Risks and Considerations:
– The short‑term technical indicators (lower EMAs, bearish M5 MACD, tight Bollinger bands) could trigger a whipsaw if SPY moves sideways or reverses abruptly.
– The high but falling VIX signals that although volatility is subsiding, levels remain elevated.
– Time decay (theta) on weekly options is significant at the open, and the probability of a strong directional move is diminished without further confirmation during the session.
– Conflicting signals between daily trend (some bullish pointers) and intraday behavior reduce the reliability of a directional play.
─────────────────────────────
4. FINAL RECOMMENDATION
Given the model consensus with mixed and conflicting signals, the recommendation is to NOT trade weekly SPY options at market open today.
─────────────────────────────
TRADE_DETAILS (JSON Format)
{
"instrument": null,
"direction": null,
"strike": null,
"expiry": null,
"confidence": null,
"profit_target": null,
"stop_loss": null,
"size": null,
"entry_price": null,
"entry_timing": null
}
Disclaimer: This newsletter is not trading or investment advice but for general informational purposes only. This newsletter represents my personal opinions based on proprietary research which I am sharing publicly as my personal blog. Futures, stocks, and options trading of any kind involves a lot of risk. No guarantee of any profit whatsoever is made. In fact, you may lose everything you have. So be very careful. I guarantee no profit whatsoever, You assume the entire cost and risk of any trading or investing activities you choose to undertake. You are solely responsible for making your own investment decisions. Owners/authors of this newsletter, its representatives, its principals, its moderators, and its members, are NOT registered as securities broker-dealers or investment advisors either with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, CFTC, or with any other securities/regulatory authority. Consult with a registered investment advisor, broker-dealer, and/or financial advisor. By reading and using this newsletter or any of my publications, you are agreeing to these terms. Any screenshots used here are courtesy of TradingView. I am just an end user with no affiliations with them. Information and quotes shared in this blog can be 100% wrong. Markets are risky and can go to 0 at any time. Furthermore, you will not share or copy any content in this blog as it is the authors' IP. By reading this blog, you accept these terms of conditions and acknowledge I am sharing this blog as my personal trading journal, nothing more.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 4-15 : Base Rally PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ have been busy forming a BASE and may transition into a moderate rally mode.
I believe this move will prompt the SPY to move above the $550 level, potentially targeting $555-565 over the next 48 hours.
This upward move could be related to news or Q1:2025 earnings.
I don't believe the markets really want to move downward at this time, although I do believe the markets will move into a topping pattern by the end of this week.
Gold and Silver are moving into BLANK pattern day, today. Given the fact that we are between rally patterns and the metals charts show a very clear FLAGGING formation (watch my video), I believe we are moving into a FLAG APEX that will prompt a move above $3300 (for Gold) and $33 (for Silver). It's just a matter of time.
BTCUSD is still struggling in the Consolidation phase. As I keep suggesting, I believe the next move for Bitcoin is to the downside. But, until we break this consolidation phase, price will continue to roll around within the consolidation range.
Remember, we are going to be moving back to more normal volatility. So you need to understand these huge daily ranges are going to vanish over the next 3-5+ days.
Volatility will likely move back to the 1% to 2.5% range very quickly.
Get some..
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