fakeout into a shakeoutgood eve'
over the last 4 weeks the es1! has seen a bit of a shakeout which has scared a lot of people out of the market. whenever these things happen, i always wonder what it is that they're afraid of?
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the es1! completed 5 waves up on a weekly timeframe from the 2023 low which we predicted, to the 2024 top which we did not pinpoint this time around.
i'm predicting we sweep the high 1-2 more times into the fed pivot,
before dropping very aggressively into the presidential election.
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if all goes well, the timeline will look like this:
> we pop to sweep the high into the "fed pivot"
> we drop -20% into the presidential election.
> the presidential election turns out to be favorable for the market:
> next bull run begins.
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i'm not your financial advisor, in fact - i'm not telling you to be a buyer nor a seller.
just sharing my interpretation of the chart in front of me.
do with this information what you will.
🌙
QQQ
NASDAQ-100. A POTENTIAL SYMMETRY PERHAPS IS THE NEXT BIG THINGPolicymakers at the U.S. central bank on Wednesday held interest rates steady, although Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
A Day later stocks heavily sold off Thursday (again), with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) tumbling nearly 500 points, as investors’ fears over a recession surfaced.
Some fresh data stoked fears over a possible recession and the notion that the Federal Reserve could be too late to start cutting interest rates. Initial jobless claims rose the most since August 2023. And the ISM manufacturing index, a barometer of factory activity in the U.S., came in at 46.8%, worse than expected and a signal of economic contraction.
After these releases, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped below 4% for the first time since February.
These weak data releases come a day after central bank policymakers chose to keep rates at the highest levels in two decades, when Fed Chair Jerome Powell gave investors some hope by signaling a September rate cut could be on the table.
Labor situations is on the radars also, as fresh unemployment data expected on Friday, August 2.
The Federal Reserve risks further weakening the US economy and tanking US stock markets.
As the unemployment rate has risen in recent months, it has fueled speculation that the strong labor market is cracking and pointing to potential trouble ahead, with full-time employment in the US declining by about 1.23 million jobs over the past 12 months, and part-time employment adding about 1.52 million jobs (May'24 data).
While much of the attention of financial analysts in June and July 2024 was focused on the Fed's rhetoric, inflation and manufacturing statistics, the US unemployment rate, which is recovering from its 55-year lows, is much greater thing.
In technical terms, June'24 will be the 4th month in a row, US unemployment rate is above its 26-week (6-month) simple moving average.
Historical backtest analysis of the entire history of data since the end of World War II indicates that the onset of a recession in the United States is just around the corner.
In any case, such labor market symptoms have always, in all cases without exception, signaled either an already occurring or an imminent US recession.
The main graph (Nasdaq-100 Futures cont. contract) indicates on a potential symmetry for further bearish development. with the nearest target roughly S14'000 mark (that is corresponding also to 5-years SMA).
SPY/QQQ/GOLD Plan Your Trade - New Week Aug 12~16+Thank you for all the boosts and likes. I'm trying my best to deliver informative and intelligent information for traders to learn to make their own decisions.
My goal is to teach you the skills to become better at identifying and selecting better opportunities for profits. Not to be right all the time - that's impossible.
But, to learn to manage risk levels, trade more efficiently, plan your trades, and to execute better trades with detailed information and guidance.
I hope I'm achieving those goals for all of you.
Some of the comments have been wonderfully supportive. Of course I'm not right 100% of the time - no one is. I'm simply trying to provide the best analysis I can to help you plan and prepare for better trades.
This video discusses what I expect from the markets over the next 5~10+ days.
I believe the markets need to retest support before shifting into the new Vortex Rally phase.
We need to watch Gold/Silver, the Transportation Index, Crude Oil, the US-Dollar, and how the SPY/QQQ react over the next 5+ days.
It will be interesting to see how things play out.
Get some.
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QQQ Set To Grow! BUY!
My dear friends,
My technical analysis for QQQ is below:
The market is trading on 450.55 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Both Super Trend & Pivot HL indicate a highly probable Bullish continuation.
Target - 467.96
Recommended Stop Loss - 440.00
About Used Indicators:
A pivot point is a technical analysis indicator, or calculations, used to determine the overall trend of the market over different time frames.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
Massive Sentiment Swing (Bears vs Bulls Royal Rumble)Many traders were looking for answers this week. What just happened? The quick summary is the JPY carry trade was quickly unwinding and as the Nikkei 225 was dumping with the largest 2 day move (EVER) the JPY volatility increased. On top of that, the FED didn't cut rates in July (as expected) and elected to punt to September (with likely 25 bps cut forecasted). Unfortunately, Thursday Unemployment Claims were higher and Friday's Non-Farm was a massive whiff. This triggered concerns that the FED is now behind the curve and the economy is heading into a recession (Sahm Rule is undefeated as a predictor). Key takeaways from me this week - VIX made the 2nd largest single day spike (Friday to Monday), and 24 hrs later made the 1st largest single day retreat (Monday to Tuesday). As I explain in the video, eerily similar volatility event like we saw in 2017 into January 2018. History rhymes and 2017/2018 were very different economic times compared to today. The week ahead is a bit lighter on US earnings, but key news is PPI and CPI (Tue and Wed prints). I'll be watching the key equilibrium levels to see who gets the upper hand. Do bears attempt to push price lower and re-test the lows? Do bulls continue to rip after the outlier cleanse and we're back to all-time highs before the election or end of year? We'll find out. I'll be watching and trading and doing my best. Thanks for watching!!!
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SPX are we bullish or bearish? The S&P 500 closed the weekly firmly.
Finally putting in a high volume reversal, has the SPX bottomed here?
One thing is for sure we are still putting in higher highs & higher lows on the weekly time frame.
Until we see the markets give us that lower weekly high its still a tough market to short.
We think about the decline in semis and megacaps after earnings...all eyes will be on NvDA near end of month.
The markets have a strong chance at staying buoyamt into NVDA earnings.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 8-9 Noon Update : Possible SqueezeThis quick update covers SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and NVDA.
Boy, what a change in price range compared to the last few weeks. Looks like ht markets have settled into a deep sleep today.
I still believe the Breakaway pattern could really make a move in the last 30 to 40 minutes of trading. A solid squeeze potential is available to price if the short trading pressure starts to unwind before the weekend.
Watch how this plays out at the end of the day, and remember that next week should see solid rallying trends.
Have a great weekend.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 9-9 Update : SPY Must Rally Above 532This is a quick update related to the Inside Breakaway Pattern today.
The SPY must attempt to break above 532 in order to attempt a rally up to 539-542.
I really believe the SPY is primed to move into a Ripper Rally phase between now and the end of next week.
I will urge the Make-Or-Break (525-526) is still in play.
If the SPY falls below 525 - the trend flips to BEARISH
If the SPY stays above 525 - the trend is BULLISH.
So, we need to see how today plays out. But, I believe a Ripper Rally is primed and ready to go where the SPY could rally up into the 540+ level very easily.
It may play out as a rally to 545++ by mid-next week - but we may see it start today.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-9 : Inside Breakaway VolatilityToday's Inside Breakaway pattern requires price to open within the body of yesterday's candle. Therefore, we need to see price move below $530.65 before the 930 opening bell in NY.
If this happens, then the Inside Breakaway pattern is ready to play out, and I believe we have a much stronger chance (about 75%) for the price to rally higher today (leaving only about a 25% chance for a broader market pullback).
The Current Flag formation on the SPY (and other major symbols) may present an extended range of volatility today and on Monday.
I'm suggesting today's Inside Breakaway pattern will resolve to the upside. But I'm also warning there is about a 30% chance the markets will FLUSH-OUT to the downside today before resolving back into a Bullish price trend.
The reason I'm making this suggestion/warning is because of the Flag pattern that is currently playing out. The closer we move toward the Flag Apex, the more likely we will see broader price volatility and bigger price swings.
It is very common for price to become extremely volatile near Flag Apexes. This happens because the price has been coiling into the Flag Apex range for many hours/days and potentially weeks. That energy, when released, usually prompts a fairly large volatility range.
Today, I warn that the $524-525 should act like a make-or-break level for Bullish or Bearish trending.
I cover the SPY, Gold, Bitcoin, IWM, and more in today's video.
Remember, I'm trying to teach you techniques you can use for the rest of your life while showing you what I see on these charts.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-8 : Harami Means IndecisionThis update to my morning video was created to help you understand why a Harami pattern will likely prompt fairly large price rotation today.
The Harami pattern is an indecision type of pattern. It suggests price is struggling to find direction and may attempt to test upper and lower boundaries.
The purpose of the Harami pattern is to flush out weaker trading positions while, essentially, completing a minor Flag formation.
The Harami pattern is an Inside Bar. By structure, this Inside Bar is a Flag setup (very short-term).
The end of a Flag Formation means price will attempt to move into a new trending mode - or move back into a new Flag formation.
Pay attention to how price constructs this Harami/Flag pattern today.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 8-8 : A Volatile Harami PatternToday's SPY Cycle Pattern is a Harami/Inside.
Because of the recent price volatility and the current price FLAG setup, I expect today's Harami pattern to include a fairly large high/low price range. That means we may see very solid price trending (up/down) throughout the day - whereas today's open/close range should stay within yesterday's open/close range.
If you've been following my research, I expect the SPY to attempt to mount a fairly strong rally over the next 10+ days (possibly longer). After the recent bout of volatility (the Kamala-Crush), I believe the US markets will attempt to move into what I'm calling a Vortex Rally based on simple fundamentals.
In order for this to happen, we need to see a few things happen:
- the US dollar continues to strengthen
- crude oil should continue to slide downward (possibly targeting $65)
- IYT (TRAN) should stay somewhat muted into the end of this year
- Gold/Silver should continue to move upward
- Global markets should continue to struggle
If this happens, it will strengthen my Vortex Rally expectations into 2025 and beyond.
Remember, the SPY Cycle Patterns are not always 100% accurate. But they can provide a very clear context for expectations, and when used with other TA techniques and proper risk management - they can be incredibly helpful.
Get some.
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What's going on with QQQ and Tech?Here is what I have been tracking with my technical analysis. What we saw since the end of July is the AI bubble losing its momentum.
What happened?
You can see on June 24th where price gaps up above the long-standing blue trading channel from 2009 that contained trading from 2009 until the 2020 bubble.
You can see it gap down back into the blue channel on July 24th.
It found some support on the mid-line of the longer running black channel from 2009 that includes the covid bubble peak.
Then we got a test of the blue channel resistance on August 1st with a very strong rejection.
Then the bottom dropped out to break below the AI rally purple channel.
Where are we now?
The morning open on Monday saw a test of the red trend line with a strong rally to back above the 200.
We saw a test of the previous purple channel with a high wick on Tuesday.
Today (Wednesday) saw a strong rejection of the channel, where it looks like support has now become resistance. We saw the high wick touch the orange price line around $449. The good news is that the 200-day SMA is showing support again.
Where are we going (this is my guess)?
It looks like the market is trapped between a rock and a hard place. I think the 200 day and the red trend line are going to give QQQ support as long as there are no other panics.
It is unlikely that the AI momentum will be coming back either.
I think it is going to drift sideways for a few days before picking a direction. This means it may bounce up and down between the purple channel and the 200-day into next week. You can see the red down channel that has now formed.
If we do get a counter rally then I would expect it to stay inside the channel. That would leave us with a potential another leg down. The RSI is only a little into the oversold range. How far? My guess would be either the red trend line again, or maybe even farther to the center of the blue channel. We get down that low, then I have a bunch of cash to go long.
I just can't see why QQQ would rally back to ATH now. There is way too much uncertainty now, but markets are irrational. I could see QQQ working back up the underside of the purple channel until the end of the year, with a lot of up and down action.
I really do think that there is a bigger pullback sometime in the next several months. The market is just running close to the top of the decade plus trading channel and the AI bubble may finally become deflating some. I believe that we will see a touch of the center line of the blue channel in the next few months, which could be Nov or Dec time frame. That will give us a lot more room to rally and make some good money.
Where is the S&P500 trend?Where is the S&P500 going with this recent decline?
We can observe to key parallel channels that have acted as support and resistance both in the near and short term.
The Uplsoping channel in on watch as price action is struggling to close back above. As long as we remain in the upsloping channel we have to observe the risk of falling to the lower boundary range.
If we recapture the falling channel we can always float back up to the upper range.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your trade For 8-7 : Perfect Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat/Down pattern played out perfectly. Now, as price nears support, we should be looking to position our trading for the next big move higher over the next 5+ trading days.
If my research is accurate, the SPY/QQQ should begin to setup a base mid/late tomorrow and start to rally into Friday - carrying into early next week.
Watch the video I created this morning to learn more.
This short follow-up video will help you understand how my SPY Cycle Patterns work and how you can benefit from their interpretive capabilities.
Get some.
#trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
Massive US Growth Will Decouple Many Global MarketsPlease watch this video to learn my viewpoint on where real opportunities exist for traders.
For many months, I've suggested that the US markets could double or triple over the next 5 to 7+ years. Some people laugh at my expectations, but others seem to "get it."
In this video, I try to explain why my expectations are valid and why I believe the "crash-dummies" will continue to trap traders into believing each new high reached is a fantastic selling opportunity.
Please watch this video and listen to what I'm trying to share. I don't see the markets as a risk related to a massive financial or global crisis (although it could happen).
I see the markets as shifting/changing related to a post-COVID coupling/decoupling event - very similar to what happened, briefly, in the 1990s.
A decoupling event would shift global economics to a point where global assets move away from determined risk factors and towards safety/security. That means the US stock market, as long as the US Dollar & US economy stays relatively strong, would be the most logical in-demand asset for the next 2~5+ years.
It is straightforward when you consider what is happening.
I hope this helps you understand where opportunities exist and how important it is to rethink what is unfolding right now.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 8-7 : SPY Settles - Gold RalliesThis video highlights what I believe will be the best opportunities for the SPY/QQQ over the next 7+ trading days while highlighting how Gold is setup for a dual-leg rally phase (possibly moving up above $2550) over the next 7+ days.
My continued efforts to deliver pertinent and actionable trade data to my followers are based on the concept that "I do the research—you make all the decisions."
I'm not trying to tell you what to do or when to trade. I'm just showing you what I see on the charts using my skills and understanding of advanced price theories and technical analysis. If it helps you out - perfect. If not, then forget about my research and move on to something/someone else.
Overall, my real objective is to provide very high-quality content (it doesn't matter if I'm right or wrong—I'll stand by my research/data every day).
Today's video is very important. Please understand there are two or three big setups taking place in the SPY/QQQ and Gold over the next 7 to 10+ days.
If my research is correct, this is a wonderful time to plan/prepare for these big moves.
Get some.
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QQQ Completed a Cycle Expecting to Resume the RallyShort Term Elliott Wave in QQQ suggests that the ETF has completed a bearish sequence from 7.11.2024 high. The decline made a zig zag Elliott Wave structure. Down from 7.11.2024 high, wave (A) ended at 455.63 low. Rally in wave (B) ended at 475.61 with internal subdivision as a expanded flat structure. Up from wave (A), wave A ended at 467.94 and wave B ended at 452.31. Wave C higher ended at 475.61 which completed wave (B) in higher degree.
Then, QQQ turned lower in wave (C) with internal subdivision as an impulse structure. Down from wave (B), wave 1 ended at 444.47 and wave 2 ended at 450.49. Wave 3 lower ended at 426.59 and wave 4 ended at 436.17. Final leg wave 5 ended at 420.00 which completed wave (C) and ((4)) in higher degree. The current rally is in progress expecting to continue higher as wave ((5)). Near term, we are calling a leading diagonal as wave 1 of (1) of ((5)). This wave 1 ended at 447.07 high. Now, we are expecting to correct the cycle as wave 2 before resuming to the update in wave 3. The view is valid as price action stays above 420.00 low.
Black Monday 2024? Discussing Current Markets and PositionsDuring Monday's open, I said this is going to be a day for the history books. Volatility expanded nearly 200% on the day (over 300% in a 3 day period), the Nikkei 225 crashed over 12% in a single day and had the largest 2 day decline ever. It leaked into the US markets with a nasty bearish futures run and massive gaps lower. Fortunately Monday's trading didn't make things much worse, but the damage was already done for many with that dramatic vol expansion. As the dust settles a bit more into Tuesday's trading, I wanted to review everything. Enjoy!!!
Developing Success With PineScript : Building Trigger MechanismsIn my ongoing quest to build better tools for traders, I continue to develop new quantitative trigger logic to improve the working versions I have already created.
Trigger logic is complicated for most people because they fail to take the time to "focus on failure."
Everyone builds trading systems focused on where the triggers work perfectly (trust me - I've seen/built a few hundred of them).
But the most important thing to focus on is where it fails to generate a decent trigger and how you are going to filter it out or protect capital when that failed trigger hits.
In this example, I highlight my new "Gun-Slinger" triggers and how my continued development is creating more advanced trading tools for skilled traders.
I hope you enjoy it.
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Is This the Start of a Recession? Why You Shouldn’t PanicMarkets have been selling off amid the latest fears of a recession, with the NASDAQ dropping over 10% and Bitcoin dropping over 20% in just a matter of days. Last Friday’s unemployment report further affirmed investors’ sentiment, exceeding expectations by 0.2% and sparking one of the biggest rotations of capital since the COVID crash. Investors are gearing up for tough times by flocking to bonds and panic-selling risky assets, but has a recession really begun? Should you panic?
Understanding the Economic Data
Recent unemployment numbers have triggered the Sahm Rule Recession Indicator, created by Claudia Sahm in 2019 to identify recessions as they start. This indicator is triggered when the three-month simple moving average (SMA) of the US unemployment rate rises by 0.5% above the lowest rate observed over the past year. Despite its growing popularity, it’s important to note that this tool has never actually identified any recessions in real time, except for the 2020 recession.
In contrast, more established indicators like the Smoothed U.S. Recession Probabilities, developed by Marcelle Chauvet and James Hamilton in 1998, have not indicated that the economy is currently in a recession. Unlike the Sahm Rule, this nearly 26-year-old tool, which relies on complex calculations and various datasets, accurately identified the 2001 and 2008 recessions in real time.
Moreover, recessions in the US typically occur when the US Composite Leading Indicator (CLI) is on a downward trend, which hasn’t happened yet. This further suggests that other indicators besides the unemployment rate aren’t currently showing signs of concern.
Even though the unemployment rate has risen sharply, other leading unemployment indicators, such as initial claims and continued claims, remain at historically low levels. Typically, these leading indicators rise sharply before a substantial increase in the unemployment rate, not the other way around.
With the market pricing in substantial rate cuts following the unemployment numbers, yields have dropped, increasing the spread between the short and long ends of the yield curve. Historically, recessions haven’t usually unfolded during inverted yield curves.
Additionally, expected looser monetary policy from the Fed combined with surprisingly tighter monetary policy from the BOJ pushed the DXY substantially lower. This resulted in a breakout in global liquidity, which is inversely correlated with the DXY and serves as a helpful indicator of future trends in risk assets.
Understanding the Market Trends
While the real economy hints that we are likely not currently in a recession, it’s crucial to examine the charts to better understand the downside risks and how to position oneself in order to stay on the right side of market risk. The spike in the VIX and the put-to-call ratio on Monday indicated extremely fearful sentiment, which historically suggests limited downside risk and the potential for a short-term rebound.
The sudden surge in fear was reflected in the sharp increase in bond prices as investors shifted from high-risk to low-risk assets. With bullish short-term and long-term trends since early June, bond prices have reached overbought conditions, suggesting they are likely to slow down in the short term but continue outperforming in the long term, aligning with market expectations of future rate cuts.
The inverse can be observed in the equity markets, with US indices in oversold conditions and exhibiting recent bearish short-term and long-term trends. This suggests that equities are likely to experience a short-term bounce but will continue to decline in the long term, providing a potential opportunity to sell.
The cryptocurrency market tells a similar but much more pronounced story, with bearish short-term and long-term trends evident since late June. Despite being oversold, the future outlook for the cryptomarket remains pessimistic and is likely to underperform equities, especially if investors continue to reduce risk.
This flight to the relative safety of mega caps has been a recurring theme since March 2021, when both the small cap and mid cap to mega cap ratios turned bearish, a trend that remains unbroken and is likely to continue unless a recession materializes and forces a shift to looser monetary policy.
Similar trends are likely to continue in the cryptocurrency markets, as evidenced by the breakout in Bitcoin dominance, which currently positions Bitcoin’s market cap at 62% of the entire cryptocurrency market when stable coins are excluded from the calculation.
Concluding Thoughts
While the market is starting to panic amid recessionary fears, the data does not yet confirm that the economy is currently entering a recession. Investors should avoid panic selling, as a rebound is likely to occur in the short term given the current overextended conditions. For the mid to long term, the situation calls for a cautious approach, focusing on managing risk and gradually shifting from riskier to less risky assets, as indicated by longer-term trends in asset markets.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice.