Opening (IRA): QQQ September 20th 430 Short Put... for a 4.34 credit.
Comments: Adding a rung out in Sept at the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging Into the Q's. I already have rungs on in June, July, and August ... .
Will naturally back-track into shorter duration if I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on.
QQQ
Opening (IRA): QQQ July 21st 380 Short Put... for a 3.90 credit.
Comments: Starting to tip-toe into Q3 (July/August/September) contracts in broad market (IWM, SPY, QQQ). Targeting the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market.
As usual, will look to sell in shorter duration on weakness, assuming I can get in at strikes better than what I currently have on.
Don't Panic! Nasdaq Bear Breakout May Signal Trading RangeNasdaq Market Analysis Report
Overview
The Nasdaq Composite Index has displayed a bearish breakout from a prominent top pattern on the daily chart. This pattern followed a strong bullish trend, indicating a potential shift into a trading range rather than a fully-fledged bear trend. I'll analyze where the market could find a bottom, explore potential trading strategies, and offer a market outlook.
Bear Breakout and Trading Range Potential
While the April breakout was strong, a transition period into a trading range remains likely due to the preceding bull market. Identifying the range's bottom is crucial for pinpointing trading opportunities.
Support Levels and Market Direction
Key support areas to watch include:
- Previous All-Time High: A natural support level.
- 200-Day Moving Average: Historically significant indicator.
- 50% Pullback: Common retracement level in major trends.
- Weekly Bull Channel Trendline: Provides underlying support.
- Round Number Levels: $16000 and $15000 offer psychological support.
Market sentiment will be influenced by whether bears continue to hold the current scenario, preventing any substantial breakouts above previous highs.
Trading Strategies
- Bullish Approach: Consider selling volatility (e.g., put spreads with 45 DTE) near the identified support levels.
- Bearish Approach: Selling around current prices with a stop at the recent all-time high could work. Look for double/triple tops or trade resistance from the 50-day MA.
Conclusion
The Nasdaq likely faces extended correction towards either the 200-day MA or the weekly bull channel's lower trendline. Price action around these areas will provide clues to the market's true direction, allowing for suitable adjustments to your trading strategies.
✏️ Weekly Report: Volatility makes Cash the King againGENERAL COMMENTS
Today, the Federal Reserve maintained its interest rates unchanged, highlighting the ongoing challenges in curbing inflation. Initially, this announcement propelled the markets upwards, but a sharp downturn occurred in the final hour, leading to a decline as the day concluded.
The erratic market behavior demonstrated today makes it increasingly challenging to maintain positions in momentum stocks, and the majority of this quarter's earnings reports have been underwhelming. This situation underscores the strategy that cash remains paramount, complemented by selective, quick trading opportunities, as depicted in the following charts.
I will begin tonight's chart analysis with the Nasdaq-100 (QQQ).
NASDAQ:QQQ
The Qs are forming a bearish formation. What is worrying is that this is below the 50D Simple Moving average. As trading is a probabilities game, we can conclude that this leads to probabilities being lower that we continue to the downside. However, the direction of the general market indexes are very well influenced by the fundmental story of the economy health.
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NASDAQ:SMTC
SMTC is up $4 from the $33 Buy Point (alerted in previous versions of this idea - go and check. Believe and Follow). This peaked yesterday with about +20% profit since the alert last week. Of course the way I manage this is never to let this to turn into a loss. My general go to tool is to take half here.
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NASDAQ:KLAC
KLAC fell back to $687 after missing earnings. This of course stopped me out - but at no loss, since I move stopped up to break-even.
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NASDAQ:SMCI
The stock missed its earnings and suffered a severe reaction of a gap down and drop -20% on the intraday.
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NASDAQ:NVDA
NVDA slashed below the 50D SMA and this stopped me out. Waiting and watching this TML during its base building period.
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NYSE:GS
Up $7 from the $419 buy point with stop raised to $416 just in case.
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NYSE:CRM
CRM is prone to go lower if the market continues falling. A break below $266.50 is great place to short.
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NYSE:LLY
Gapped up on good earnings. The next technical buy point is $801 accommodated with heavy volume.
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NASDAQ:MRNA
Earnings are due out tomorrow. If earnings are good then zooming through the $116 on good volume is a great technical buy point
QQQ Sellers In Panic! BUY!
My dear followers,
This is my opinion on the QQQ next move:
The asset is approaching an important pivot point 414.64
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 423.93
About Used Indicators:
For more efficient signals, super-trend is used in combination with other indicators like Pivot Points.
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
✏️ Weekly Report: "Buy in May and Stay"?MARKET OVERVIEW
The stocks had a good turnaround after a strong report from $NASDAQ:KLAC. NASDAQ:MSFT Also posted strong earnings!
Could the famous saying "Sell in May and go away" turn to "Buy in May and Stay"?
Lets review some charts.
NASDAQ:QQQ
The Qs snapped back after strong earnings. Now it looks like we are heading for the 50D SMA
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NASDAQ:KLAC
Up $19 from the $687 buy point that I shared in previous idea ( see related ideas below )
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NASDAQ:NVDA
Mentioned it in previous idea ( see related ideas below ) before it skyrocketed $51. Could consider here or a little bit lower if it consolidates.
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NASDAQ:SMTC
Up $2 from the $33 buy point mentioned last week on the idea. Potential add point is the $35ish level.
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NASDAQ:META
We warned about META, what we are seeing is that buyers are stepping in on Friday and Thursday to support it. For the aggressive traders could play a snap back but personally, I would pass.
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NASDAQ:MSFT
MSFT snapped and squatted lower. Consolidation around the 50D SMA would present a good opportunity for a buy. Before that I would pass.
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Nothing to do on Bitcoin but wait during the base building period is over
04/27/2024 - Watchlist, Stocks, Crypto - Video Idea - TA ChartsWatchlist, Stocks Indexes, Bitcoin, Crypto TA Charts by @NoFomoCharts
00:25 Watchlist and News
02:05 Stock Indexes
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Watchlist, SPY, QQQ, DIA, IWM.
TOTAL, Bitcoin (BTC/USD), Halving History, ETH/usdt, BNB/usdt, SOL/usdt, ADA/usdt, XRP/usdt.
04/27/2024, 08:00PM EST Video Idea.
Technical Analysis & Educational Chart Videos.
Follow, Comment, Boost, or Cheer to support. Thank you!
All content is Not financial advice.
This is why I am taking on long calls the channel The chart posted is in a well defined channel that is parallel we are now retesting it . if we were to Break it . that would be BAD thing . But if we break it and close back above that that would be a GOOD thing .We had the Vix cycle peak come in within 1.5 days of the 4/15/4/17 and we are setting up for Moves in Both directions . Trade it this way
$SPY Does it Need a Bigger Correction?I have zoomed out to larger timeframes on AMEX:SPY to come up with some larger / longer timeframes. Here is what I started with; the weekly chart (shown) then zoomed out to the Monthly Chart (not shown) to draw the February 2009 trendline. I came back to the weekly to find the March 2020 trend. I then looked that the latest run starting in October 2023. That trend line is almost parabolic and was unsustainable.
I am not making any prediction here, but it would be prudent to have a plan for a larger correction. I have horizontal lines near the top of the chart that were drawn using the daily chart and it is possible that one of them (or none) could be support areas. It is all to be determined. Keep an open mind. Corrections can happen in price or time or a combination of both.
I would like to point out that on any of the charts that I post I am only correct about 50% of the time. My posts are more about self-accountability than anything else. However, I do hope that you find some value in the technical aspect of the posts.
Thanks for looking.
✏️ Weekly Report: Weak Bounce & Weak $META MARKET OVERVIEW
A weak bounce in the market this week, which lifted stocks modestly off their lows though most stocks are struggling to recover a significant portion of their recent losses.
Tonight, Meta Platforms ( NASDAQ:META ) is adding more downside pressure on growth stocks after it announced weak guidance numbers and the stock collapsed $75 lower in afterhours trading.
Let’s start the charts with Nasdaq-100 above (QQQ)
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NASDAQ:META
NASDAQ:SMTC
Constructive pattern. Closed just above the $33 buy point, however I would like to see more volume pick up from here.
NASDAQ:MSFT
The stock needs strong earnings today to get past $431 would be a place to open a position. However, slicing through the support level at $395 is a sell short point for aggressive traders
GOOGL
Massive weekly Cup with Handle base. Earnings are coming today. Technical buy place is $160.25 if earnings are good and we have good volume.
NASDAQ:KLAC
This company reports earnings tomorrow. A move above the $687 is a buy point. However, weak earnings below $680 is a logical short.
NASDAQ:NVDA
Bounced to the 50D SMA (red) and turned down. Aggressive play for the intraday traders is a move over the $880 on a strong volume.
NYSE:GS
GS is just a little bit extended over the proper buy point. If the market starts rallying this could be a good short trade. I would be extra tight with stops here (around $414 level) if I was to play this.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
Bitcoin is performing a tight pivot. Over the blue line is a technical buy point (if we have good volume too)