$TAN Up 17% in 2 Days!Who says you cannot make big returns on ETF's?
AMEX:TAN the Solar Sector ETF Is on fire. It looks like rotation back into the beaten-up sector. Names Like NASDAQ:FSLR and NASDAQ:ENPH up even more. Rather than take the risk on an individual name I have opened a ¼ sized position in this ETF. I will be looking to bring this up to a full-sized position on any consolidation.
This ETF has institutional accumulation volume going back over a month. It has regained all MAs except for the 40 Week MA in white. All shorter-term MA’s, including the 50 Day Moving Averages are turning up. My stop is set below yesterday’s low and the horizontal line of support / resistance.
Ideas not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
QQQ
US100 ~ Ho Ho Santa Rally or EOY Bah Humbug Bust? (4H)CAPITALCOM:US100 chart mapping/analysis.
Nasdaq 100 consolidating into key macro economic news, much like S&P 500.
Trading scenarios into EOY:
Bullish reaction to macro economic news = break above ~16167 trading range (yellow dashed) towards ascending trend-line (green) / red box confluence zone.
Bullish extension target(s) = new historical highs surpassing ~16770 November 2021 high.
Bearish reaction to macro economic news = break below ~15690 trading range (yellow dashed) + descending trend-line (light blue) towards 78.6% Fib / 200SMA dynamic support confluence zone.
Bearish extension target(s) = descending trend-line (white dotted) / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
Opening (IRA): QQQ March 24th 280/May 19th 323 LPD*... for a 31.72 debit.
Comments: Short delta hedge against a long delta portfolio. Buying the back -90 delta put and selling the front +30 to give me -60 delta/contract worth of hedge. This isn't a commentary or forecast of where the market goes from here, but rather in the nature of buying protection to keep my wife from yelling at me because her portfolio is down too much.
31.72 cost basis with a 291.28 break even on a 43 wide.
* -- Long put diagonal.
Opening (IRA): QQQ March 15th 348 Short Put... for a 3.51 credit.
Comments: Targeting the shortest duration <16 delta put paying around 1% of the strike price in credit to emulate dollar cost averaging into the broad market. Will naturally look to add in shorter duration should we get a sell-off and/or up-tick in IV that makes that worthwhile.
$OSK Breaking Out of Flag Formation?NYSE:OSK Here is another play on electrified specialty vehicles. Check out their website www.oshkoshcorp.com Pretty cool stuff.
I have been watching this one for a good entry since earnings on Oct 23rd. I missed the pullback breakout on Nov 13th, but it has pulled back again and looks to be breaking back above that pullback. I have started ¼ sized position and I will place my stop just below today’s low of day. I do not expect this to be barn burner but a 10% to 20% gain over the next 2 months seems reasonable. I think it can get back to the double top highs from September. All TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
$U Breaking Above 50 DMANYSE:U has been a bit of a troubled stock. However, they did beat on earnings, and they have announced 265 job cuts and office closures to boost profit.
I am taking a chance here on a "turnaround play." I opened a ¼ size position just a bit ago. I’ll place my stop just under the low of the day (that’s about a 9% stop, bigger than I like but it has moved that much today, hence the smaller position size).
I like the volume on earnings day along with follow-up volume the next day. It is on track today to be about 150% of the last 10 days average volume so buyers are showing up. Although it is now above its 50 DMA it has yet to cross the 40-week MA (white) and just above that in light green is the 18-month AVWAP. Those could be strong areas of resistance, TBD.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
$ONON Holding The Uptrend?I have been long NYSE:ONON for about 2 weeks and have averaged in with a cost basis of 29.20 so I am currently underwater, but it has not hit my stop. If it stays above my stop, I will continue with the trade. I have a ¾ sized position and will look to add to a full position once I am at least $1 over my average price.
I am posting this idea today because I have reevaluated the position with the idea that I might close it. But as I do so, I still like what I see. The only negative on the chart is it is below a declining 40-week MA. However, on the positive side It is clearly in an uptrend (I almost got shaken out yesterday). It is above the now rising 50 DMA and is above the IPO AVWAP which means that by volume and price most buyers are in the money. There is still an overhead supply that could keep the progress slow for a while.
Were I a new buyer here I would look at yesterday’s candle as being a reversal and today’s candle as confirmation.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
$CLBT With Huge Cup with Handle Breakout.NASDAQ:CLBT Beat on earnings with an 800% surprise and earnings growth of 1,000% as reported on November 14th. Cellebrite sells software to the Police, and all government entities. They state that: Cellebrite's mission is to enable its customers to protect and save lives, accelerate justice, and preserve privacy in communities around the world.
Now to the chart, I have charted this on the weekly timeframe, so the latest candle is only 2 days old. 4 weeks ago, NASDAQ:CLBT broke out of the handle formation. It is now consolidating that breakout. The formal breakout that many use would be the height of the cup before the handle was formed. The breakout price for that is $8.29. Which is very close in price to the 18-month AVWAP. As of this moment it’s trading at $8.45. I have an alert set right at 8.60. Should that trigger, I will look to go long with a stop just under this week’s low of 8.09. That seems to be a good risk reward ratio to me. I do not set price targets, but I think it is possible to go back near all-time highs of around $11.50. Should that happen that is a 33% move! I can handle that.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
$VRT Flat Base Breakout?I traded NYSE:VRT about 3 weeks ago on the break above the declining trendline shown on the chart. It had a lackluster move, so I closed it out for 1.12 profit per share over a 2-week span, too slow for me.
Yesterday saw a lot of buying on big volume. I wanted to wait until this morning to see if there was going to be any follow through. Yes, it happened so I have started a new ¼ size position with the day low as my stop. With all that volume I am looking for this to be a sustainable breakout, but I have that stop in case I am wrong. If I am correct, I will look to add on any pullbacks to the moving averages.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
ES1! Key Levels into EOY 2023ES1! 6WK: Update from April 14, 2023 Publish:
0.786 Levels clear development of structure into EOY.
KL: 4741.25
Risk on sentiment as evidenced by confluence of sigma 1 and 0.5 fibonacci level (4155.25) now approached 0.236 fibonacci level (4500). This was a high area of interest as PA reverted to mean because it was where price acceptance has occurred (Oct 2020) and where price acceptance was rejected (Feb 2020)//
Regression analysis with pearsons r of .9558//
VIX 12.04
Price at time of study 4693.75//
KL: 4741.25
Upcoming macro events and earnings guidance will be factored in alongside breadth and yield measures// Bias: Risk On
Nasdaq 100 Rally to All time HIghs - QQQNASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:NDX
Here's what I see shaping up in the Nasdaq 100
💡 Remember we do have two big news events this week . The inflation CPI # Tuesday and the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday.
These two events 📰will be huge market drivers. One or both could disappoint and cause a decent pullback.
Putting that aside for now I do see positioning and a technical target 🎯in the 430 range for QQQ.
Buckle up - it's going to be an interesting week
QQQ Massive Short! SELL!
My dear friends,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 392.15 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 388.70
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
$SPX at IMPORTANT area! DJ:DJI is fighting to stay above, hang around resistance.
NASDAQ:NDX came back & fighting to chug higher as well.
VERY IMPORTANT AREA for $SPX!!!!!!!
Strength has subsided but it's not down yet.
Could AMEX:SPY retest the highs?
TVC:VIX is holding but doesn't look fully awake. Hmmm...
#stocks AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:SPY
$QTWO Flat base Breakout?Here is another off the radar company that has the potential to double in price over the next year. Today it is peaking out over a most recent flat base. Since the most recent low on Oct 31st, this stock has rallied by over 30% and is hitting a 52-week high today as well. I do not know if it can get back to the all-time high of about $147.00 per share but I do think it can be a solid gainer.
I have opened a ¼ size position in this today as it is breaking out. I will place my stop just under today’s low of 36.98 which makes for a good risk reward as a trader. An investor who plans on holding a longer term (a year or more), a stop could be placed under the most recent higher low or maybe the large bar on Dec 1st. Either of those 2 areas would give a lot of breathing room. I, however, like a tighter stop and I am not opposed to getting stopped out and getting back in even at a higher price.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
From earningswhispers.com:
Q2 Holdings Beat Consensus Estimates
Wednesday, November 1, 2023, at 4:30 PM ET
Q2 Holdings (QTWO) reported a loss of $0.15 per share on revenue of $154.97 million for the third quarter ended September 2023. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.17 per share on revenue of $155.44 million. The company beat consensus estimates by 11.76% while revenue grew 7.06% on a year-over-year basis.
The company said it expects fourth quarter revenue of $160.3 million to $163.3 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $161.42 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2023.
Q2 Holdings Inc through its subsidiary is engaged in providing secure, cloud-based virtual banking solutions. Its software suite includes integrated modules for online banking, telephone banking, mobile banking, and core account management.
$RAMP with a PEG Consolidation.NYSE:RAMP may well ramp up here. They had nice earnings beat with a Power Earnings Gap (PEG) and now some nice consolidation. I have placed an alert just over yesterday’s high. Should it trigger, I will look to a lower timeframe for a good risk reward entry. I like these kinds of set-ups as the risk can be clearly defined. So, if the trade does not workout I will get stopped out for a small loss.
From LiveRamp’s website: LiveRamp aspires to make it safe
and easy for companies to use data effectively.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.