Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) ~ December 4H SwingNASDAQ:QQQ chart analysis/mapping.
QQQ ETF in consolidation phase after strong November rally.
Trading scenarios:
Further consolidation = descending trend-line (light blue) / multiple EMA confluence zone.
Continuation rally #1 = top range of Fib / ascending trend-line (green) confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #1 = 78.6% Fib / 200MA confluence zone.
Shallow pullback #2 = descending trend-line (white dotted)\
Deeper pullback #1 = gap fill / ascending trend-line (green) / Golden Pocket confluence zone.
Capitulation #1 = 50% Fib
Capitulation #2 = 38.2% Fib / gap fill / ascending trend-line (light blue) confluence zone.
Capitulation #3 = 23.6% Fib
QQQ
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🍂Fall – Fell – Fallen. S&P500 Technical Perspectives over Q3'23The US government is well on its way to going into lockdown and shutting down the economy as policymakers are deadlocked over the national budget for the next fiscal year.
While leading stock market strategists are not yet terribly concerned about such perspectives, and entertain hopes that investors have a high probability of "getting away with it" with strong performance, in reality the facts tell a different story.
S&P500 SP:SPX is suffering losses, and has already lost about half of its annual growth since the beginning of 2023, and the Nasdaq-100 index NASDAQ:NDX reduced 2023 growth approximately by 30 percent.
To avoid a shutdown, Congress needs to pass all 12 spending bills for the next fiscal year by Sept. 30, something it has historically done rather poorly.
This could create problems for the market, which could immediately, that is, on the same day, be seriously affected by a US Government shutdown, considering SPX seasonality where September is one of the worst calendar month for investments into S&P500.
S&P500 Seasonality Chart
Meanwhile historical back test analysis says, in the past 20 government shutdowns, the S&P 500 stayed relatively flat, with the benchmark index losing an average 0.4% the week before a shutdown and gaining .1% by the end of a shutdown, according to a Reuters analysis of CFRA Research data.
And in some cases, stocks actually ended the shutdown period higher, with the market gaining a net 10% following the 2018-19 shutdown, according to Renaissance Macro.
Shutdowns lasting five days or more have also been known to see a quick market rebound, according to a 2021 Dow Jones analysis. On average, the S&P 500 had already moved into positive territory within one month of the shutdown. Shutdowns themselves are also relatively short. The last government shutdown, which was the longest-ever, lasted for 35 days.
Anyway everything could happened. To stay away, or look beyond the market's twists and turns in the weeks before, during, and immediately following a potential shutdown - this is could be very, very individual investment decision.
Technical pictures illustrates that weekly SMA(52) - 12 months simple moving average near 4150/4200 pp in SP:SPX or Dec'23 Futures CME_MINI:ESZ2023 (depends what are you looking for) could be quite strong support in any cases.
$NDX & $SPX momentum slowing down hardNASDAQ:NDX looks a little short term toppish.
Look at weekly NASDAQ:QQQ ;
Considering that the Nasdaq 100 went higher the RSI is much lower than previous top. Shows a serious slowdown in momentum.
Ditto for CBOE:SPX
However, the equal weight AMEX:SPY seems to have some room to go.
AMEX:RSP
$TSLA Wedge Break?I have been keeping an eye on NASDAQ:TSLA as it keeps putting in higher lows. It looks to me that we have a wedge pattern inside a larger wedge pattern. I have started a ½ size position in anticipation of running up to the larger wedge pattern where I would expect more resistance.
In addition, NASDAQ:TSLA is now above all shorter-term moving averages and the rising 40 Week MA in white. A close below the 40 Week MA will be my stop area. Let’s see what happens.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
QQQ Daily 0dte Play 11/30/23Good Morning,
Here is a plan for November 30th for 0dte on the QQQ symbol.
Got the highs and lows highlighted :
We want to hit the long when the price breaks below 389.08
We want to go short when price breaks 392.10
As a rule of thumb, we want to procure 3 strikes away from ITM. So for longs we want to go for 391 calls , for puts we go 389 puts respectively based on criteria met above.
Soft profit target 30%.
If the market opens significantly higher / lower, the middle points of the boxes are adjusted targets for longs/shorts.
Happy Trading !
Yields falling, Tech Falling!Are we seeing a divergence in the market?
Interest rates & yields have cooled off significantly in recent trading sessions thus providing the perfect tailwinds for tch to continue higher.
Todays price action saw Tech make a new nominal high as yields were falling but ended up reversing lower. The fact that tech appears to be selling off under falling yields will certainly have to be monitored.
Bitcoin Losing The Crypto War?Don't judge a book from it's cover. Read on and soon, you will find out who the real winner might be.
The explosive crypto mania was born because of Bitcoin. It is the reason myriads of alt-coins are now traded every day.
From the countless of alternatives, one became strong enough to constitute an alternative to the coin that started it all.
Ethereum (ETH)
From the chart below it is apparent that Bitcoin Dominance is mainly affected by Ethereum
In this idea I will be ignoring the effect of alt-coins, the dominance of which is shown in the following chart.
So how do the big guys compare to each other?
Simple... right? Well not exactly... Not all candidates fight with the same rules. Ethereum started after Bitcoin, and the enthusiasm has given it an apparent advantage.
To fix things, we must make the game fair for everyone. To achieve that, we divide each coin with the total amount of addresses (the bubble part).
In this chart above, I did an important transformation. BTC_ADDRESSES, as noted on my previous idea, is the reason items like crypto get explosive.
You know this chart above reminds me of another dominance chart:
Bitcoin did show it's power compared to other crypto. After all, it is not important if you bubble without foundation.
Ethereum is in an even bigger bubble than Bitcoin.
And a final, short-term chart for today. The calculation is again "modified-btc"/"modified-eth"
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
$FROG Breaking out of PEG Pennant?I have been watching NASDAQ:FROG since the Power Earnings Gap on Nov 2nd. It pulled in nicely and I should have bought it on Nov 13, but I missed it. It has since pulled back again and looks to be breaking out of this consolidation area.
I have started a ¼ size position with a stop below today’s low. I will look to add if it can follow thru without stopping me out this week. All TBD.
They did miss on earnings but beat on revenue. Although they missed, the earnings growth was 47.4% and revenue grew by 23.1%
Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
From earningswhispers.com :
JFrog Missed Consensus Estimates
Wednesday, November 1, 2023 at 4:07 PM ET
JFrog (FROG) reported a loss of $0.10 per share on revenue of $88.64 million for the third quarter ended September 2023. The consensus estimate was a loss of $0.08 per share on revenue of $87.56 million. The company missed consensus estimates by 25.00% while revenue grew 23.12% on a year-over-year basis.
The company said it expects fourth quarter non-GAAP earnings of $0.12 to $0.13 per share on revenue of $92.50 million to $93.50 million. The current consensus earnings estimate is $0.08 per share on revenue of $92.93 million for the quarter ending December 31, 2023.
JFrog, the creator of the DevOps platform, is on a “Liquid Software” mission to enable the flow of software seamlessly and securely from the developer’s keystrokes to production.
$FRSH Breaking Out of Downtrend?NASDAQ:FRSH I like this chart except for a declining 50 day moving average (red) and it has yet to put in a higher low. The positives are a rising 40-week MA (white) price has moved over the shorter-term Mas. It looks to be breaking out over the downtrend line. I like how I can define my risk if I am wrong.
I have started a ¼ size position and I will look to add if / when it moves over the near horizontal trendline. I will place my stop on a close below the 40-week MA.
Has Nvidia finally topped?NVDA just put in a weekly bearish engulfing candle!
This is the first sing of a leading Mega Cap potentially seeing some distribution.
If this bell weather names keeps falling its going to turn the sentiment in the semiconductors slightly more bearish and will weigh in on the QQQ.
New All Time Highs On Nasdaq😈Hello Traders,
My name is Philip and I am just an average stock and indices trader with over 4 years of trading experience💻
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➡️In today's video, I will analyse the Nasdaq for you🫡
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➡️Let me know your opinion about today's analysis in the comments below👇
➡️I will only enter a trading position if ALL of my trading/entry criterias are met!
Keep your long term vision!
P.S. Trading is risky and most beginner traders lose money!
BTC | Let NDQ Go Bust!Bitcooooooins... UP!
In the recent history, we have had two perma-bull trade-ables, NDQ and Bitcoin. No-one in their real mind would dare to short these 2 years ago... So what if, we could compare these two bulls? Who will survive in the years to come? Who is the record keeper? The answer is NOT as simple as it might seem. Read until the end to find out...
2022 will be marked as the worst year "ever" for equities (except The Great Depression of course). Money got much more precious last year compared to equities. Just by having money, you got "richer" last year. So compared to money, equities did get worse.
Items like Bitcoin suffered even worse. A 73% drop compared to SPX is a monumental way to break the crypto mania.
Bitcoin has been an over-leveraged, perma-bull trade-able item.
I don't know if it is a currency, a commodity or something else, so I call it a simple item.
The majority of Bitcoin's gains were thanks to derivatives (trading).
The same happens in Equities, but not to such an extent. NDQ is another perma-bull market full of stocks like AAPL and TSLA (everyones' favorites for some reason)
Bitcoin is on a whole new level of rapidness...
However, there is an exponential cousin to NDQ. That is SQQQ.
So how does it compare to NDQ? Since SQQQ is basically 1/QQQ, we will plot the QQQ*SQQQ chart to see the outcome.
This reminds me of the diminishing nature BTC_ADDRESSES showed.
We can raise SQQQ to the 0.2 exponent to bring it down to reality.
SQQQ is moving at the 5th exponent of QQQ. Incredible speeds really...
So how do these two lightnings (1/SQQQ and Bitcoin) compare??
I told you that the answer is not straight-forward.
And some short technical analysis:
This chart above describes the popular over-leveraged period when everyone traded Bitcoin.
There is a longer-term ticker showing the entire history of Bitoin ( INDEX:BTCUSD )
It shows us yet another perspective:
If these charts are true and breakout as intended, what could this mean for equities? Just how big of a bubble are equities in?
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
PS. The popular knowledge is not the truth, it is just a famous lie.