Get started

QQQ

Nasdaq - A Black Friday Blowout Sale?Using the SPX as a reference for ease of use, at the beginning of the November rally I asked whether or not manipulation would come after we saw a 5% rally in 3 days just because the U.S. Treasury decided to spam bonds at a lower, but still already highly inflated, rate in Q4 than they did in Q3. SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming? The week before last, I cautioned bulls who believe in the "Santa Rally" thesis that we may just see sideways and manipulation back down with the end of year target being merely 4,600 and not 4,900. SPX - Santa Ralliers: You Better Keep Your Eyes On The Clock And for the record, I haven't cared about this rally because I haven't had a position, since there was never a retrace I never went long and shorting has looked bad, and turned out to continue to be bad. But Friday the 17th marked the monthly Options Expiry (OpEx), and we predictably spent the day sideways. The next week ahead is U.S. Thanksgiving on Thursday, where the markets will be closed for the last time before Christmas, and then Black Friday the day after. Although there is little news drivers this week, except for Employment on Wednesday and PMI on Friday, I posit that since the Nasdaq set a double top with its July high, we may very well see a 1,000 point "Black Friday blow out sale" this week that sets up a December rally that takes out the All Time High. Keep in mind after this week, starting with "Cyber Monday," we still have four trading days to complete the November candle, and so we most certainly can dump an awful lot and rally an awful lot to finish the month some 2 or 3% away from where we closed on Friday. The dangers in the markets are exceptional at the moment, however. Xi Jinping visited San Francisco for the climate theatre conference, where he met with the Biden Administration. What this event indicates to us is that the International Rules Based Order is extending Xi, who is a Chinese nationalist, an olive branch to cede his control of China and form a critical hub in the coming One World Government. But the IRBO has never been so intelligent as to understand that it cannot out maneuverer the Red Dragon of the Chinese Communist Party, for the Devil Red is a scourge who has come to ensure that humanity and all of its related souls are totally annihilated. At the root of the conflict is the 24-year persecution of Falun Dafa, originally started by former Chairman Jiang Zemin on July 20, 1999. The campaign has targeted 100 million spiritual believers, even going so far as to commit the unprecedented sin of live organ harvesting. Although Xi has been killing the Jianglings for more than a decade in his Anti-corruption Campaign, Xi is still the head of the CCP, the Red Dragon and Destroyer of Worlds, and this is a problem for him that he will either solve by overthrowing the CCP in a coup Gorbachev-style, or Heaven will solve it for him by sacking the Emperor's Bedroom in Zhongnanhai and Beidaihe. For the IRBO, the problem the whole world faces is that the supposed "International Police" (and its Wall Street financial vanguard) have been staining their hands sanguine crimson with the Jianglings in Shanghai-Babylon all these years. The sins are so extremely massive that they can never be fully paid for, and they still aren't doing their part to wash their hands and social distance from the Devil Red. Instead, they're doing everything they can to expand the CCP's Zero-COVID Social Credit system worldwide. And this is going to cause a Dark Winter for humanity. When that day comes, your indexes and your memestocks, your "Magnificent 7," even, will all trade like crypto dumpstercoins because no market making algorithm will be available to pump and dump, and at the same time everyone will be desperate to sell, with no buyers available. But the good news is that when that day comes, you won't be paying attention to money anymore. Instead, what is unfolding in this world will be the only thing notable, and you won't have any interest, or any need of, following CNN and NYT and Xeeeeeeeeeeter for updates. The information will come from a combination of your own eyes and another platform, one pure and clean. Lord Jesus once told his followers: "Whoever has eyes, let them see. Whoever has ears, let them hear." The blind and the deaf will be culled, and such is the nature of the trial all souls face.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by LordWrymouth
9
S&P Pull BackNew update. It seems like markets have found themselves face to face with reality. The bear market rally seems to have run out of steam due to the amounting economic and inflationary data. Simply put, I do not think markets can rally from here, based on: RSI overbought on 1W MACD Crossed on 1W Food prices are at 18 moth highs according to UN. Fuel prices are back near record highs Rent prices are back at record highs according to Redfin and Zillow Home Prices are heading higher according to Case Shiller Index Vehicle prices remain high, making a slight gain last month according to FRED and MUI Housing affordability is at a multi-decade low (1980s) With this data in mind, I can't imagine how the Fed will be able to hide this new inflation in future CPI/PPI reports. It's impossible. Just because their official report says inflation is falling, it doesn't make it a reality. The debt to savings ratio in America is about the worst on record, which means people are paying more for the same items they used to buy because prices are rising and there is nothing they can do to stop it. Some people believe unicorns are real, but that doesn't mean they're real. Markets have risen for the last 4 consecutive months without pause, and continually since Oct 2022 lows based on the idea that inflation is "easing" and that the Fed will reverse course. Higher interest rates are good, because it promotes savings with higher yields. It also promotes paying off debt and less leveraging by Americans. The problem with 0% interest is that it creates artificial spending growth, which in fact is nothing more than a bubble. We saw the mad rush to buy cars and homes in 2021 with people overpaying on over priced homes and cars. Now? They're starting to sweat, especially those who bought vehicles, because 2 years later, they still owe more than MSRP and dealers won't buy them for near MSRP. Home buying sentiment is the worst in 23 years according to CNBC (keep in mind, that's worse than 2008-09). Keep watching.. let's see how this farce of a market plays out. Who knows, they may continue to fudge numbers and markets may reverse and rally again, but everyone knows that prices everywhere are higher, so it matters not if the "official" numbers are low. You feel it at the pump, grocery store, and everywhere else. There was no easing. #SPX CBOE:SPX
SP:SPXShort
by WorldEconomics
3
NQ Uptrend Still BullishWhen evaluating whether to take a short or long position, it's crucial to observe current trends. For example, the NQ 4-hour chart maintains its uptrend as it hasn't broken any higher lows. This was evident during a live chat I observed today, where some traders were initiating short positions anticipating a "flush." However, their rationale wasn't clear. Understanding the shift in trends, characterized by breaking higher lows followed by forming lower highs and lower lows, is a key aspect in determining your trading bias across all time frames. Although the 4-hour trend is still strongly bullish, the 1 to 5-minute timeframe may exhibit a "pullback," offering short-term intraday shorting opportunities. However, it's important to be aware that this strategy goes against the dominant bullish trend in a higher time frame and is very high risk.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by AmpedTrading
Inflation Wins, We LoseThere are two kinds of inflation, the normal one and the dangerous one. Printing money creates inflation. The kind however which is not dangerous to the foundation of the economy. With money printing, currency loses value and prices react accordingly. Nobody gets wealthy from money printing, and in a sense, "nobody" gets poor. By nobody I mean the economy as an average doesn't really get hurt. Inflation however widens the gap between poor and wealthy. Poor get poorer while rich get richer... Inflation analysis can be very simple. If one believes in simple support/resistance levels from consolidation patterns, then the following picture can be drawn for the standard inflation chart. For further validation, we can try analyzing commodities like oil. In the main chart, crude oil value is divided by the "total value of money in circulation". The value of money is the yield percentage. A massive consolidation pattern formed in 1986-2002, on which we are now supported. I believe that price cannot drop much lower than the point we are in. Dips can be expected, but in macro scale the chart is bullish. From the chart above, we conclude that oil prices (inflation) will grow compared to yields themselves. Each increase in yields (inflation fighting) will lead to higher oil prices (higher inflation). Charts like these prove the Catch-22 phenomenon we are in. This is the bad kind of inflation. This inflation is un-fixable. There is a plethora of charts that prove what I say, that inflation is unfixable. One of these charts is GOLD*PPIACO. @SPY_Master used the GOLD*DBC chart as a measure of inflation. Gold*PPIACO can be considered as another very-long-term inflation measure. Commodity production cost is bull-flagging against money supply itself. So okay, we all expect more inflation. And surely, equity prices have priced this in, right? Wrong. Equities have priced-in that the FED is controlling inflation. Investors expect both inflation and the FED to calm soon. So, equities have priced-in something that will never come. An investment can suffer when the investor judges the situation wrong. An investor who has understood the situation, "cannot" go bankrupt. Equity prices show that markets ignore the FED. In the chart above, DJI is divided by the yield curve as an attempt to measure the ability of equities to grow in a progressively tighter economy (falling yield-curve, negative yield curve). Even with all that money destruction and yield increases, equities are making all-time highs. The markets are very stubborn. The yield curve may describe the "ease" the market shows for equities. In normal times, the yield curve is positive, long-term yields are higher than short-term ones. This encourages short-term borrowing and stimulates the economy. As the yield curve steadily lowers, short-term money borrowing is less and less interesting for investors. (In the Spaaace!!! idea linked below, you can find more information about the DJI/yield-curve chart) High inflation and stubborn markets by themselves don't render equities as worthless. After all, equities survived in the stagflation period of 1970s. While the stagflation outcome can play out, there are things that may happen before it. There are some charts which are very concerning for equities... We tend to talk about the crypto bubble, and ignore the equity one. Equities have been consistently growing for the last 15 years. But thanks to what? Are companies in a "better shape" than they were in 2010? Sure technology has evolved, but from dependable devices we are now filled with unstable gadgets. Consumer devices as well as corporate ones, are more vulnerable than ever before. Security gaps are now appearing from big-tech companies to banks. Sure, issues like these were commonly occurring throughout history. But let's consider, is the immense equity growth representative of the dependence we can have on companies and their products/services? Are equities growing because of actual innovation, or from the easy way of derivatives? This chart shows the diminishing nature of derivatives. They are exponentially losing value, but their effect is much bigger than their cost. A purchase of cheap derivatives can bubble-up anything you can hope for. Where does this chart lead us? This chart attempts to calculate the effect of derivatives in QQQ price. Before 2020, QQQ consisted of a "stable" amount of derivatives. Price moved in the channel. In 2021 a bull-flag formed and launched the chart in incredible new highs (where we are now). It is one way to visualize the immense effect of derivatives, especially in big-tech stocks. (More about this chart in the "who would you trust with your money" idea linked below) Even if Bitcoin is "overpriced", it will be the winner if this golden bull-flag breaks out. Bitcoin seems to be beating many investments. Even if it may not be considered a commodity, it certainly behaves like one. Even if equities grow, each upwards move for equities, will lead to much higher prices for Bitcoin. Just like Bitcoin is bull-flagging against the most powerful of equity bubbles (QQQ Derivatives), commodities are bull-flagging against the most stable of equities (DJI) Not all equities are grim though... We may be witnessing a massive wealth transfer away from US corporations. In this idea, I attempt to analyze the massive shift of balance that we may be witnessing. While much harm has come to Europe from the war, almost everything is priced in. If the chart is correct, it means that every upwards move for US equities will push Germany further upwards. Germany has been enjoying a massive influx of money from the entire EU. After swallowing the entire European market, it is now forming a bull-flag against Europe and other countries. Germany as well as emerging markets prove a significant challenge for the US. These are bad news indeed for US equities... Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
NYMEX:CL2!
by akikostas
6
NQ 6H OverviewOverview NQ seems to be operating within a descending triangle pattern at the moment. This formation doesn't necessarily indicate a bullish or bearish trend, but a breakout in either direction could provide significant insights. In addition to the descending triangle, it's evident that we're currently ranging between two crucial levels: 16000, which acts as a major supply zone, and 15800, serving as a significant break and retest zone. If the 15800 level holds strong, we might see a move towards 16000 or higher. Conversely, if 15800 is breached, there's a possibility of a decline to the 15600 level, the next demand zone, or even to 15450, another notable break and retest zone. Key Levels Supply: 16000 Demand: 15600 Break and Retest Zones: 15800 & 15450
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by AmpedTrading
MSFT ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:MSFT chart mapping/analysis. Bullish price momentum within an ascending parallel channel (green). Bull target(s) Breakout above ascending trend-line resistance (white dotted) Upper range of ascending parallel channel (green) Upper range of ascending parallel channel (light blue) 23.6% Fib + ascending parallel channel(s) confluence resistance zone Bear target(s) Underlying gap fills (~357.54 / ~339) Ascending trend-line support (white dotted) 38.2% Fib Lower range of ascending parallel channel (green) 38.2% Fib + parallel channel (green) confluence support zone 50% Fib Gap fill (~280.39) + Golden Pocket Fib confluence support zone Lower range of ascending parallel channel (light blue)
NASDAQ:MSFT
by BlueHatInvestor
NFLX ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:NFLX chart mapping/analysis. Bullish recovery back into ascending parallel channel (green). Bull target(s) Breakout descending parallel channel (white) + descending trend-line confluence resistance Overhead gap fills (~470 / ~506.93 / ~566.88) Golden Pocket Fib + gap fill (~506.93) confluence resistance zone Bear target(s) Underlying gap fills (~412.52 / ~354.79 / ~341.38) Ascending trend-line support (light blue dotted) 38.2% Fib 23.6% Fib
NASDAQ:NFLX
by BlueHatInvestor
5
NVDA ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:NVDA chart mapping/analysis. Breakout/bullish price momentum pushing higher within an ascending parallel channel (green). Bull target(s) Golden Pocker Fib Ascending trend-line resistance (white dotted) 78.6% Fib (+1) Bear target(s) 50% Fib (+1) Descending trend-line support (white dotted) aka "return to scene of crime" 38.2% Fib (+1) Underlying gap fill (~423.81) + lower range of ascending parallel channel (green) confluence support zone 23.6% Fib (+1) Lower range of ascending parallel channel (light blue) + gap fill (~306.01) confluence support zone
NASDAQ:NVDA
by BlueHatInvestor
TSLA ~ Snapshot TA (Daily / Nov 2023)NASDAQ:TSLA chart mapping/analysis. Continuation of bearish price momentum. Bull target(s) Breakout above 38.2% Fib Overhead gap fills (~242.08 / ~289.52) Descending trend-line resistance (white dotted) 50% Fib Upper range of descending parallel channel resistance (white) Ascending trend-line resistance (green dotted) aka "return to scene of crime" 50% Fib + trend-line/parallel channel "super" confluence resistance zone Gap fill (~289.52) + Golden Pocket Fib confluence resistance zone Bear target(s) Ascending trend-line support (green dotted) Descending trend-line support (white dotted) 23.6% Fib Underlying gap fills (~162.95 / ~146.41 / ~122.63 / ~114.39) Lower range of ascending parallel channel (light blue) + gap fills(s) (~146.41 / ~122.63) confluence support zone(s)
NASDAQ:TSLA
by BlueHatInvestor
1
$MCHP Ready to Break Downtrend?NASDAQ:MCHP is heavy into automotive chips along with many other industries as well. When looking at the chart I see that we have a longer-term double bottom formation that put into play an Undercut and Rally on Nov 2nd, which was the earnings date. That is technically still in play. It looks like it will break out of the downtrend line today where I have an alert. I like the accumulation volume before and after earnings. NASDAQ:MCHP has regained the faster moving averages but is still below the 50 DMA in red and the 40-week MA in white. The MACD turned up just 3 days ago. Lastly, NASDAQ:MCHP has either been reiterated or upgraded to either “Buy” or “Outperform” by at least 4 different analysts in the last few days. The average price target is $101. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:MCHPLong
by jaxdog
SPX - Santa Ralliers: You Better Keep Your Eyes On The ClockIn previous threads looking at SPY: SPY - Did We Bottom, Or Is Manipulation Coming? Nasdaq Nasdaq Futes - You Wanted a Dip For That 'Santa Rally,' Aye? And ES SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter Rodeo We've noted that both the extreme bear and extreme bull cases are dubious. After the five day 8% rally to start the month, we warned that manipulation may be coming. Instead, we got a flat week where the October high was taken on a Friday afternoon. The important thing for Santa rally believers, who are expecting the all time highs to be taken out, is that we're on what amounts to a pretty tight deadline, with the final day of the December candle being the deadline. The reason for this is because the indexes went up in a straight line starting the first day of 2023, and this is not likely to repeat itself. And so, what I believe we're in store for, is not a real Santa rally, but a fairly big 150-200 point retrace starting next week, that culminates in a rally that takes out 4,650 by year end, but goes no further. That will mean that 2024 is a very unpleasant year for everyone, U.S. election or not. Perhaps what will stop the Santa Rally from taking the all time highs on the indexes is the looming problems posed to the world by mankind's continued cooperation with and support of the Chinese Communist Party. The Chinese Communist Party, under former Chairman Jiang Zemin in 1999, launched a full scale organ harvesting genocide and persecution against the 100 million practitioners of Falun Dafa meditation. Those sins are more eternal and boundless than what Nero and the Romans did to Jesus and his Disciples 2,500 years ago by an infinite degree, for the scale is so much larger, the importance of this moment in history is so much more significant, and Falun Gong's students being true spiritual practitioners. Xi Jinping, because he has made himself the head of the Party and has continued to hold onto Marxism and Leninism with a deathgrip, has painted himself into a corner that he only has one way out of. That way is to coup d'etat the CCP and get rid of it like Gorbachev and friends got rid of the USSR. But the clock is ticking. He has to do it before the Wuhan Lung Flame breaches the Emperor's bedroom. And former Premier Li Keqiang was killed by a heart attack just a few weeks ago, and only in his 60s. Either way, the CCP is dust in the wind, and so are all the clowns on Wall Street, governments, big corporations, and Antifa/BLM-style scum of society revolutionary groups who have been either providing blood to or taking blood from the Evil Party all these years. And this means that markets will go up in preparation for the falling guillotine. Because it's ultimately just humans gambling against Gods. So here's the trade. I expect next week, and perhaps also the week after, will bring a ~4-5% retrace that sets up a month end rally into a December rally that takes out 4,600. We won't go sideways, I suspect, but it'll chop up and down and back and forth before finally getting to the point, and so it will probably suck to trade levered ETFs and options. Still, there's a chance to go long coming up ahead with a target above the July highs to end the year, and that is about as good as she gets, I gander. Good luck. I hope you heed the caution about "China" and do your part to social distance and wash your hands from communism and all its related scams.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by LordWrymouth
2
$MBLY U&R?NASDAQ:MBLY looks like and technically is a fairly new IPO. However, it was a publicly traded company prior to NASDAQ:INTC buying them in 2017. They re-IPO’d in 2022. I am playing this as an Undercut and Rally play. Earnings are behind them, and they beat expectations and guided sales and earnings higher. My stop is a close below today's low. A word of caution, they are located in Israel and may be affected in some way by the conflict going on over there. They have enjoyed several upgrades as well. See Chart for additional notations. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NASDAQ:MBLYLong
by jaxdog