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The End of a Tesla Era! Tesla missed on earnings. Huge decline for this leading EV stock. Tesla was already getting oversold on the daily chart, & now with this decline its a salavating opportunity for day traders. I still think the true swing trade level is a bit lower from here. This weekly close will tell us more. We have included an analysis of the XLY sector (Consumer Discretionary). We discuss 3 signals that have only ever happened over a 25 year period. The weekly Golden Cross. Often this Weekly Golden cross is bullish long term but historically weak price follows in the short term.
AMEX:XLY
by Trading-Capital
$QQQ 2024 downside price targets + timingIt's very tough to forecast price + time and get the exact timing and price targets correct. However, I'm going to attempt to do so. Over the next year, I expect NASDAQ:QQQ to fall somewhere between 35-50%. If the move that I'm expecting plays out, we'll be right around a 50% drawdown from the current levels. The chart attempts to forecast time and price levels that are important over the coming year (2024). Each grey box represents a price level that should get hit within that timeframe. Again, this is extremely hard to do accurately. Often I do these for myself just to try to anticipate large changes in trends, but I thought I'd share this publicly as it would be fun to follow along over the next year. Essentially what I'm forecasting is one more move up before the end of the year. It should happen before Christmas, but I'm allowing myself some extra time. Then Q1 should be extremely bearish for the markets with the largest leg down during that time. There are two scenarios that I'm looking at. Either we hit the lower targets all in one move $205-218, then bounce afterwards (this scenario would be the bottom), and we'd retest that lower range in Q4. Or, we hit $246-255 and then bounce into Q2 and fall further in Q4 marking the final bottom. Regardless of which one plays out, you'll want to buy equities in March/April and then again in October/November. Q2 and Q3 we should see a bounce where you'll likely want to take profits on the way up. Let's see if it plays out as anticipated.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by benjihyam
7
$FFTY Forming a VCP (Volatility Contraction Pattern)?AMEX:FFTY looks to me like it is working on a VCP with volatility shrinking and forming a nice wedging pattern. I like this pattern “IF” or when the market turns positive. Here are the negative things I see, as of now it is trading below or right at the 18-month AVWAP. It is right at shorter term resistance. It is below the downward sloping wedge trendline. And the RS is still declining. On the Positive side I see current price is about 11% below the 52-week high. Price is above all the moving averages including the 50 DMA and the 40 Week MA. Price is above the upward sloping wedge trendline. Here is my trading plan, if the overall market looks good, RS breaks above the trendline and price moves above the 18-month AVWAP I will start with a one-third size position. My stop will be price closing below the 50 DMA. If it breaks out over the wedge downtrend line, I will make it a two-thirds sized position. If it can consolidate without stopping me out, I will build to a full position on any resumption of the uptrend. All TBD. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking. AMEX:FFTY The IBD 50 Innovator Fund is comprised of IBD’s picks for high growth stocks. The stocks represented turnover more often than most ETF’s.
AMEX:FFTYLong
by jaxdog
$LOW Consolidation PennantNYSE:LOW has been on a tear since its Oct 27 low. The volume of buying during December 13, 14 and 15th is amazing. We now have a nice 8-day consolidation going that has formed a bullish pennant. In addition, today is shaping up to be an inside day. I do not know which way this will break but I did put on a one-third size position today with a stop just below the Dec 20th low. I will look to add to my position should it break to the upside. All TBD. See the chart for other essential information. Ideas, not investing / trading advice. Comments always welcome. Thanks for looking.
NYSE:LOWLong
by jaxdog
Opening (IRA): QQQ March 15th 380 Monied Covered Call... for a 371.81 debit. Comments: Buying stock and selling the -75 call against to emulate a 25 delta put that is defense-ready via roll of the short call. This is temporarily in lieu of what I ordinarily do in broad market, which is to target the <16 delta strike paying around 1% of the strike in credit and slightly more aggressive delta-wise. This only makes sense in a cash secured environment; on margin, you should probably do something else that is more buying power efficient (e.g., short put/take assignment/cover, Jade Lizard, short strangle, yada yada). 8.19 max profit on BPE of 371.81; 2.20% ROC at max; 1.10% at 50% max. Generally, I'll take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call on test to reduce cost basis further and improve my downside break even.
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by NaughtyPines
5
1/22 Weekly Plan. ES Futures March NQH24 Weekly Pivot is 17,3901/22 Weekly Plan. NQ Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 17,390 Targets 17,480 17,625 17,770 Targets 17,270 17,158 17,022 Now trading at 17,563 (between uT1-2) Alerts You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close): Weekly opening 17,466 Weekly pivot at 17,390 Each weekly target. Side notes NQ is currently OTFU in all timeframes (D-W-M), daily which would come to an end if 17,166 is breached during RTH session.
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by dhjesus
QQQ Under Pressure! SELL! My dear friends, QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details: The market is trading on 421.23 pivot level. Bias - Bearish Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market. Goal - 403.51 Recommended Stop Loss - 430.34 About Used Indicators: Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis ——————————— WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by AnabelSignals
2
2024-01-18 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good evening and i hope you had a good trading day. Bulls took over in the globex session and we never looked back. Yesterday i said in my short term outlook that we go up and we did. nasdaq e-mini futures Most bullish indix of em all. Many of the same as dax for today. Nq just reached higher prices. We are trading 38 points below the december high and i think we will get there. Can we touch the big upper wedge? Probably. Bull case is the 400 point rally from the weekly low yesterday which could easily go to the wedge line around 17250. Bulls even bought the 160 point dip midday to close at the highs. Bear case is that this is a trading range from 16950 to 17120. The selloff from bar 43 to 50 was deep enough to dampen the euphoric rally. We are also at the highs of the wedge on the daily tf. They also argue that this is a trading range inside a bigger one between 16450 to 17130. So the question is, how much more room is there for the bulls despite the selling pressure? I think the most reasonable case is, that above 17100 there were many trapped bulls from the december high who will gladly use this rally to exit out of their longs and that’s another reason why i think the upside is limited. But i also thought NVIDIA at 400$ was high enough, so bulls might just continue to dance until the music stops. short term: sideways to down (weakly held and i will long on big bull bars) medium-long term: big down New swing short position opened for nasdaq. I think shorting above 17000 on higher timeframes is a no brainer.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
2024-01-17 - a daily price action after hour update - nasdaq Good evening and i hope you are well. We continue the big downs and big ups. Both sides can make money yet bears manage to make lower lows and lower highs. nasdaq e-mini futures Tricky. Bears making new lows but bulls buying it all and closing at the highs. Yet they did not manage to trade above yesterdays open and the globex high. I do think the move from 16689 up was strong enough to get a measured move to around 17000 but bulls first target tomorrow is 1h close above 16900. We clearly broke above of the triangle and the tight new bull channel could get us above 16900. Bears see it as a two legged move inside a broad bear channel. They will try to keep it under 16900 and close the week below 16700 or maybe even touch the lower bull wedge line from early december + early january at around 16600. That beeing said. Bears still can not close below the daily 20ema which is bullish. Bulls want a retest of the december high at 17165 and keep the big bull wedge alive. short term: sideways but can break out both ways again. we currently go up and down almost every day medium-long term: down
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
MSFT EARNINGS CHART - PRICE TARGETS AND TRENDSMSFT Trying to get multiple charts done so description will be short. Sorry to those asking about my website. Work in progress, and progress was slowed due to migraines. Basically, Short term shows a drop, mid term shows a pump, and long term shows a drop. With this in mind, it sets up strategy to keep risk to a minimum during earnings. IF MSFT is pushing 336-342 around close. Look to see a final pump to maybe 348-354, with some fast retracements in the AH. IF MSFT is around 326-327 around 10am-11am, I would look to buy call options, and I would sell those call options before close. Personally, I see the same indicators setup on almost all the technology stocks, THEY ALL show a small pump to the topside, with a near 20% retracement.
NASDAQ:MSFT
by nicktussing77
2
TSLA Caught in Vortex of Conflicting TechnicalsPrimary Chart : TSLA's 2D Price Chart with .618 Fibonacci Retracement of Decline from All-Time High to Jan. 2023 Low and Various Degrees of Trend Represented by Conflicting Channels SUMMARY: 1. TSLA's technicals are unclear and conflicting. The trend from the 2021 all-time high remains downward until broken. The trend from the January 2023 low remains upward but somewhat choppy and unstable. The trend from the July 2023 high remains choppy and downward until broken. 2. Institutional buying into year end may be supportive of prices, allowing short-term traders to buy dips to well-defined support / risk levels into early January 2024. Until more structural change occurs providing more clarity, it's difficult to have confidence in any trend other than the shortest ones. 3. Once the next multi-month trend move occurs, some may look back and say that its was obvious and inevitable, offering post hoc arguments based on data that can be manipulated to support opposite outcomes. But today, unambiguous data pointing to a clear directional outcome is lacking (especially on intermediate and longer-term time frames). 4. Severely inverted yield curves suggest pressure on the economy and equity markets in the coming year or two. But as the lessons of the dot-com crash have taught us, markets can rally violently into their own recessionary demise. The downward channel from the July 18, 2023, swing high has been the only pattern working lately. The last decline in late October 2023 was bought, and this dip fell to support at the downward sloping parallel channel. Bulls may see this as a bull flag, and it might be, but a breakout above the downward-sloping trendline from TSLA's all-time high stands in the way of a potential flag-breakout. Further, bears may reasonably see the channel from January 2023 as a bear flag within the larger downtrend from 2021. These conflicting technicals are worth watching over the coming weeks and months for resolution. Supplementary Chart A If one zooms out on TSLA's chart and looks at the past two years of price action, price action has largely been sideways in a trading range. This is despite the vicious decline starting November 2021 and lasting for over a year as well as the violent rallies and choppy uptrend in 2023. This sideways range seems to contain both the bear and bull markets of 2021-2023. Trading ranges are also known as chop, which is why trends on all time frames have likely been less predictable, disappointing many traders and investors during this time unless they have major equity cushions from many years ago or trade only the shorter time frames. Supplementary Chart B Because the larger degree trends over a two-year to three-year period has been primarily sideways, the trends within it have been less reliable and more likely to chop up TSLA investors. Anchored VWAPs shown below also confirm this analysis of choppy, sideways action that is less predictable overall. Over the past year, notice all the failed breakouts above and below the key VWAPs anchored to major turning points. There are many. Supplementary Chart C Supplementary Chart D Supplementary Chart D shows how the moving averages also are tangled, messy and sideways, presenting conflicting signals. In conclusion, TSLA's technical charts remain conflicted and unclear. Many disciplined traders or investors with a short-term to intermediate-term time frame may wish to define risk clearly and keep losses small or else stay away. The Primary Chart reveals just how challenging TSLA's price action is for trend traders and investors. A downtrend from TSLA's all-time high remains unbroken as the downward sloping parallel channel shows. An uptrend from TSLA's January 2023 low also remains relatively stable despite the volatility seen this year. And a 4-month downtrend channel has been in play since July 2023. Any one of these technical trendlines could break one way or the other, but as of Thanksgiving, none have been broken and these data points remain unavailable for market participants wanting long or short exposure to TSLA. What should traders and investors do? Some may vent the useless nature of a post that says a stock can go up, down or sideways on intermediate to long-term time frames. Others may see that TSLA doesn't have a clear directional play except on the shortest time frames, which is based on the currently available data. So perhaps wait patiently for more data and simply do nothing—the hardest thing for fidgety trader and DIY investor types, right? Those sitting on a large equity cushion may wish to tighten stops a bit to $200 (assuming their entries are much lower). Those with no position may want to just wait for more clarity. Short-term traders who believe institutional flows into year end will buoy markets broadly and lead to higher prices into year end (and first week of January 2024) may wish to keep an eye on critical support at $200-$220 evidenced by the green VWAP anchored to October 2023 lows as shown on the Primary Chart. If this author were to have a bias, it would lean in this direction into year end and early January 2024, but it's a weak bias that can't be strongly held. Such a thesis, like any other trading viewpoint, isn't guaranteed at all even though it may have a reasonable probability of being correct. This is why a stop (risk level) is needed. Upside targets in such a scenario would require a decisive move above the .618 Fibonacci retracement level and for that level to hold first. It's possible that the move off October 2023 lows could be consolidated first, where bullish TSLA traders may watch $200-$220 support levels. If a dip were to create a better entry for traders into year end, then upside targets might be considered as follows: Conservative: $250-$255 Aggressive: $275-$280 Extremely Aggressive: $300-$310 As always, risk should be well managed so that the reward / risk ratio remains higher and the losses kept small. And keep in mind that TSLA-related news catalysts, including the ones from this past week, may have a tendency to yank price around and create formidable volatility. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by SquishTrade
45
Trend Lines & Their Significance in Minervini's Trading StrategyIntroduction In the world of stock trading, trend lines are vital tools for investors and traders alike. Mark Minervini, an acclaimed swing trader, is known for his strategic use of trend lines in assessing the strength of stock movements. This article delves into Minervini's approach, highlighting how he utilizes trend lines to identify optimal trade entries and exits, and emphasizes the significance of upward trend consistency in his methods. Utilizing Trend Lines to Gauge Stock Movement Strength Minervini leverages trend lines to evaluate the momentum and strength of a stock's movement. By connecting the lows in an upward trend or the highs in a downward trend, he creates a visual representation of the stock’s trajectory. This technique allows him to discern the stock's current trend, be it bullish or bearish, and gauge its strength. A steeper trend line indicates a stronger movement, whereas a flatter line suggests a weaker trend. In Minervini’s strategy, the angle and longevity of these trend lines are critical factors in assessing a stock's potential for continued movement in its current direction. Identifying Trade Entries and Exits Trend lines are more than just indicators of stock movement; they are crucial for identifying potential trade entries and exits. Minervini uses two types of trend lines: support and resistance. A support line is drawn along the low points of a stock's price, indicating a level where the price tends to find support and bounce back upwards. Conversely, a resistance line connects the high points, highlighting a price level where the stock often faces selling pressure. For Minervini, a break above a resistance trend line signals a potential entry point, indicating that the stock might continue to climb. Similarly, a break below a support line might suggest an exit point or a short-selling opportunity, indicating that the stock could be entering a downtrend. These trend lines, therefore, play a pivotal role in his decision-making process, guiding him on when to enter or exit a trade. The Importance of Upward Trend Consistency In Minervini's method, consistency in an upward trend is a key factor. He looks for stocks that show a sustained upward trend, marked by higher highs and higher lows, which are typically indicative of strong buyer interest and positive momentum. This consistency not only suggests a robust bullish sentiment but also provides a measure of safety, as stocks in a consistent uptrend are less likely to experience sudden drops. Moreover, Minervini emphasizes the importance of volume in these trends. An upward trend accompanied by increasing volume can be a sign of strong investor confidence, adding further credence to the strength of the trend. Conversely, an upward trend with declining volume may signal a loss of momentum, prompting a more cautious approach. Conclusion Mark Minervini’s use of trend lines is a testament to their importance in stock trading. By carefully analyzing these lines for both support and resistance, and prioritizing stocks with a consistent upward trend, he is able to make informed decisions about trade entries and exits. For traders looking to enhance their strategies, incorporating Minervini's approach to trend lines can be a valuable addition to their trading toolkit, offering a clearer perspective on the strengths and potential directions of stock movements.
DJ:DJIEducation
by JS_TechTrading