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10/17 Give us a healthy pull back. Overview: The AMEX:SPY continues its upward trajectory, hitting new all-time highs. The bullish momentum is supported by more companies exceeding earnings expectations this week. Despite rising unemployment and persistent inflation, corporations are posting record profits. It’s a reminder that the stock market and the economy don’t always move in sync. The NASDAQ:QQQ , representing big tech, is hovering near its all-time high but struggling to break through. The Federal Reserve reported fewer initial jobless claims at 241k, a decrease from last week, but still higher than the average over the last three years. The CME Watch Tool now indicates a 9.3% chance of no rate cut in the next meeting on November 7th, influenced by these labor market figures. Meanwhile, a surge in BTC ETF purchases has been observed throughout the week. Yesterday, BlackRock acquired $309 million worth, nearly tripling its average of $117.4 million. This marks their fourth consecutive day of buying. Even Grayscale joined the action. Altogether, $1.854 billion flowed into BTC ETFs this week. This could either mark the peak of the sixth bullish wave or set up a breakout from the year-long bullish flag pattern. BTC saw an 8% rise this week, making it one of the top five best-performing weeks of the year, including February's pump following BTC ETF approval. However, the volume remains lower than expected. For a full trend confirmation, we need institutional whales to join in. If we are indeed breaking out of the bullish flag, the volume should match levels seen at the beginning of the bull run in October and November 2023, when weekly volumes were 80-100% higher than this week. BTC Technical Analysis: W: On the weekly chart, BINANCE:BTCUSDT candle wick has reached July's open and close but hasn't tested its highs around $70k. A close above $68.2k this week would be a bullish signal. We still have Friday, but the weekend isn’t likely to bring much action. D: BTC has been at the upper Bollinger Band for four consecutive days without any correction or pullback. The candles are reminiscent of the week of September 3rd, which saw an 8.5% pump, followed by a fake breakout and an additional 4.54% rise before a sharp decline wiped out all gains within ten days. A healthy pullback could target the $64-68k range—but of course, the bullish sentiment says, "No pullbacks on the way to the moon!" 4h: The current pump started at the key 2024 level of $62.7k, rising in three waves. The third push had lower volume, signaling a price-volume divergence. RSI has exceeded 70 twice and is now trending down, showing divergence with the price. On-Balance Volume (OBV) and Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) also indicate divergence. Without a clear shooting star candle with high volume, nothing is confirmed yet. We might see some sideways action over the weekend before a possible breakout on Sunday evening. 1h: Bearish. Alts Relative to BTC: ETH, SOL, and NEAR are showing weakness. None have reached their July peaks like BTC, and they have all pulled back after this week’s pump. Quick question: Does MKR have a bottom? Bull Case: If we continue breaking out of the bull flag, the pump could extend into next week, with potential gains of another 6-8%. If Trump wins and crypto rallies, rates could be cut in November and December, bringing them down to 4.25-4.50%. Bear Case: We could continue oscillating within the $58-70k range, and we are currently at the upper end. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 58, still Neutral, but it touched the Greed level of 60 yesterday.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-18 : Tmp-Bottom PatternHappy Friday, Today's pattern is a Tmp-Bottom pattern for the SPY Cycle Patterns. This pattern usually acts as price attempting to find immediate support in early trading, then moving into a moderate melt-up rally. After yesterday's big opening gap (higher) on the SPY, I suspect the SPY & QQQ will attempt to rally back to those highs and possibly attempt to break those highs today. In other words, I believe yesterday's opening price high was a reaction price level where price ran into immediate resistance. After watching price roll downward and now attempt to melt upward in overnight trading, I interpret this move as "failing to continue to establish new lower lows". Thus, price then shifts into a mode of "must attempt to make higher highs". If my analysis is correct, we'll see the SPY/QQQ melt upward off the Tmp-Bottom pattern and possibly attempt to move up 1.25-1.50%+ today. Gold and Silver are playing out very nicely - still moving in a solid rally phase. Bitcoin continues to consolidate sideways. The length of time Bitcoin has consolidated could present a very big breakout or breakdown pattern over the next 2 to 5+ days. So, be aware that any move away from the #3 & #4 consolidation phase of the Excess Phase Peak pattern could resolve into a very big price move for Bitcoin. Currently, I suggest the downward price move has a slight advantage - simply because of the failed new highs (price rejection). But, that could change in an instant with a confirmed higher high/higher close. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by BradMatheny
3
Can NVDA hit 200 USD in Q1 2025?🔸Time to update the NVDA trade setup, previously was expecting a correction in this market, based on fundamentals we are definitely overextended, however NVDA so far is trading purely based on momentum ignoring the fundumentals. It's the star stock of the 2024 stock market. 🔸Previous strong uptrend, we broke above key psychological S/R at 100 usd. Right now we got a compression setup, expecting limited upside / pullback heading into US elections, having said that probably any downside beyond 115/120 usd is very limited. current floor set at 100/110 USD. 🔸Compressing into wedge formation, most likely we will break out to the upside following a shallow pullback in November 2024. Also November/December is a very strong seasonal period for US stock market, so it's really hard to recommend short selling NVDA. 🔸Recommended strategy bulls: expecting pullback near 114/118 USD in November going into elections, limited downside beyond 110 USD. BUY/HOLD near 114/118 TP bulls is 200 USD, which is almost 75% upside. Most likely we will reach target somewhere in Q1 2025, probably January. 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by ProjectSyndicate
26
2024-10-17 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well. tl;dr Indexes - Bullish spikes on all of them but markets closed mixed. All closed with a big tail above and we are where we closed yesterday. Near but still above the daily 20ema, near bull trend lines but also with bulls not strong enough to get a big breakout above with follow through. Most of the current patterns are in their last stages and the breakout will happen over the next days. I am neutral for now and scalp in both directions. nasdaq e-mini futures comment: Fugly chart and yes. Nested bull wedges on the daily chart and on the 1h we have a triangle and a broad bear channel since we are making lower lows and lower highs. Which one to trade? Yeah… 20400 is kinda the midpoint of this and unless bulls get a big breakout above 20700 or bears below 20200, it’s best to fade bigger moves or join momentum. If earnings are good, this will melt again but for now I do think the market should have traded higher by now, if bulls would have wanted this bad. current market cycle: Bull trend (nested bull wedges) key levels: 20000 - 21000 bull case: Bulls grinding this higher but they also have only 1 daily bar closing above 20500 for 3 months. Will they give up or strongly break above on good earnings? I would not bet on the latter. Clear bull wedge on the daily chart and we are trading near the lower trend line and daily 20ema. Support should be very strong here and we can probably expect more sideways movement for 1-3 days. Invalidation is below 20160. bear case: Bears reject everything above 20500 but they are not able to get follow through selling. No bear wants to sell near the daily 20ema and until we close below it with a strong bear bar, I highly doubt we move much. Given the 3 months inside this bull wedge, I do favor the bears slightly to break below but just very slightly. Can you short this now? Absolutely not. Invalidation is above 20700. short term: Neutral medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. Embrace the volatility. current swing trade: Nope trade of the day: Selling 20500 continues to be profitable… Selling the open was a banger trade. Bears also got a second and even third chance.
CME_MINI:MNQ1!
by priceactiontds
Semiconductors vs. Nasdaq: Key Indicator of Tech MomentumIntroduction: The ratio between semiconductors NASDAQ:SMH and the Nasdaq 100 NASDAQ:QQQ serves as a key indicator of tech sector momentum and near-term risk sentiment. When SMH outperforms QQQ, it signals a "risk-on" environment, reflecting strong demand for semiconductors and overall tech sector health. Conversely, if QQQ outperforms SMH, it suggests a "risk-off" environment, pointing to concerns over weakening chip demand. Analysis: Risk Sentiment: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio provides insights into tech momentum. A higher SMH performance often indicates robust chip demand, a positive signal for the broader tech sector. On the other hand, when QQQ outperforms, it signals caution, possibly reflecting waning demand for semiconductors. Bullish Outlook: Recently, the SMH-to-QQQ ratio has formed a higher low, reinforcing a bullish outlook for semiconductors. This higher low is a positive sign not just for the semiconductor industry but for the broader market as well, as semiconductors often lead market rallies. Conclusion: The recent bullish signal in the SMH-to-QQQ ratio suggests tech sector strength, with semiconductors likely leading the way. This is a critical metric for assessing near-term market momentum, so traders should keep a close eye on this ratio to gauge potential shifts in sentiment. What’s your take on this trend? Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments! Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio and the higher low formation) #Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #RiskOn
NASDAQ:SMH
by Richtv_official
TSLA Best Level to BUY/HOLD 30% gains ABCD fractal🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour price chart for TSLA. Recently we gapped down back into trading range, based on previous update I still maintain neutral outlook until we complete the re-accumulation structure, details see idea below. 🔸Having said that I'm expecting a decent 30% bounce in TSLA based on the ABCD price fractal. ABCD fractal from 2023 projected into the current market structure, point D expected near 188 usd timewise most likely December/January. This will be a good reload for the bulls. 🔸Recommended strategy bulls: Bulls wait for pullback to complete near 188 / point D and BUY/hold for a 30% bounce play. Exit/TP at 250 USD. good luck traders! 🎁Please hit the like button and 🎁Leave a comment to support our team! RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by ProjectSyndicate
8
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-17 : CarryOver In CarryOver ModeGood morning, Great to see the ES/NQ rallying higher this morning - in perfect alignment with my SPY Cycle Patterns & predictions. Gold & Silver are also moving slightly higher - but remember My Gold patterns suggest Gold & Silver will consolidate a bit in early trading today. BTCUSD is a really interesting chart, in my opinion. The multiple Excess Phase Peak patterns are playing into a potentially very large downward price move. Pay attention to all of the content in this video today because we are moving into the end of this week - which means we need to prepare for the volatility that starts next week. As I keep suggesting to everyone, trading is about attempting to time the best opportunities for success. Knowing when something may happen that creates an opportunity, setting your risk levels, and going for it. I wish I could tell you, "Trading is like picking red or black". It's not. Trader's have to develop almost a 6th sense to be able to see and visualize what is most likely to happen in the future. My tools help me see into the future a bit, but a lot of my analysis comes from within my head. Anyway, the best way for you to learn these skills is from someone who can mentor you and show you what they are seeing on the chart. Teaching you the skills to improve your own abilities to make better decisions. That is what I'm doing. Over time, you will learn to use these techniques to make better decisions and become a better trader (at least that is my objective). Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade: 10-16 UpdateLearn to watch for signs of major market contagion by watching key sectors. In my opinion, the biggest sectors: Like Transportation, Financials, Gold, and Crude Oil, will lead any major market collapse - often by 7-10+ days. This videos highlights what I believe most traders need to watch in terms of understanding when/where opportunities are for long trades while attempting to gauge risks related to any type of broad market collapse event. Spend some time looking over this custom Crash Index and let me know if you see any correlations related to when the SPY/QQQ move more than 7-8% downward in any sudden price moves... (XLF+IYT+GDX+XOP)/4 Get Some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:XLFLong
by BradMatheny
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-16: BreakAway PatternToday's video highlights what I believe may be a shift in market trend - which can happen. My SPY Cycle Pattern highlight expected price activity/range based on a number of factors: Fibonacci price theory, Gann analysis, Tesla Price Amplitude theory, and more. Yet, the one thing my SPY Cycle Pattern do not take into consideration is TIME. Price shifting slightly forward or backward: where price exhibits an activity/range one day before or one day after the Pattern Date has happened before. I've seen big CRUSH patterns happen +/- one day. I've seen topping/bottoming patterns happen +/- one day. Possibly, we just experienced the sideways contraction I was expecting for Wednesday of this week happen on Tuesday of this week. This type of "time shift" if not out of the question in terms of how price reacts to external news/data. What this means is we may be in for a moderate upside melt-up type of rally in the SPY/QQQ over the next 3+ trading days. Gold & Silver are moving clearly into the Phase #4 of an inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern. If my analysis is correct, Gold and Silver will rally to a new "Ultimate High" throughout this process. Bitcoin may have already reached the Ultimate High after yesterday's breakout rally phase. We need to watch the $68k level to see if price fails to rally above that level. The next two weeks of trading should be very interesting for all of us - moving into an election and watching the global markets attempt to adjust for opportunities/risks. Remember, ultimately, all of your decision-making should focus on three things: _ Preserving Capital _ Identifying Opportunities _ Containing Risks No matter what happens over the next three+ weeks, there will be time for more trading after the elections and in 2025 and beyond. Trading is a long game - where the #1 priority is to preserve capital while trying to find the best opportunities for profits. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
4
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-15 : Gap Breakaway PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will move into a Gap Breakaway type of price trend. I believe this means price will attempt to Gap higher at the open and attempt to move into a moderate rally phase throughout the day. Remember, we are just starting to move into Q3 earnings data, which will last well into mid-November. On top of that, we have the US elections and other data (external) that may drive market trends. Near the beginning of this video, I show you some of my ADL (Adaptive Dynamic Learning AI) predictive modeling system outcomes for various symbols on Daily charts. It is important to understand price is the ultimate indicator and we don't want to fight price. We just let price do what it wants to do and try to time the best trading opportunities on the charts. Given what I believe it currently taking place, I suspect the SPY/QQQ will melt upward over the next 5-7+ trading days - attempting to reach a peak price level near October 24-25. Metals appear to be in a consolidation channel (downward) and are struggling to break away from that channel. Move metals do break away from that channel - we are going to see an explosive move to the upside. I suspect that could happen later today or tomorrow. Bitcoin is playing the Excess Phase Peak Pattern perfectly - moving into consolidation and now setting up the #4 (A or B) setup for traders. The next move is going to be explosive - either setting an ultimate high, or breaking downward and returning to recent lows. Should be some exciting trends for all of us over the next 10+ days. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
11
10/14 Bull run if THIS level confirmed as supportOverview: The U.S. observed Columbus Day on Monday, with most businesses closed, but trading activity was still alive and well. The PYTH:SPY closed its fifth consecutive green day, reaching a new all-time high, while the PYTH:QQQ approaches its own record. Due to the holiday, the Federal Reserve didn't release any data, but tomorrow we'll see the Empire State Manufacturing Survey, and by Thursday, we’ll have jobless claims numbers, retail sales, home builder confidence, and business inventory reports. Interestingly, the CME Watch Tool is now showing a 16.4% chance of no rate cut in November, up from just 10% last Friday. This shift may be in response to an overheated equities market. Meanwhile, Monday saw a wave of buying activity in crypto ETFs, with big names like BlackRock, Grayscale, and even Fidelity getting involved. ETH also caught BlackRock’s attention. For a more reliable corporate earnings calendar, try this updated tool: finance.yahoo.com BTC TA: W: Last week, BINANCE:BTCUSDT opened at $62,810 and closed at $62,845, forming a large indecisive doji candle but managing to stay above the Bollinger Band middle line (BB MA). Throughout the week, the price showed lower highs and lower lows until Asian bulls stepped in on Monday morning. While U.S. traders were off for the holiday, Asian traders pushed BTC past its previous high, stopping just short of the crucial $66,550 mark. Keep an eye on $62.7k—it’s a key level on the weekly, 3-month, yearly, and current bull run (since October 2023) point of control. Anything above this level suggests a potential breakout toward $70k, while falling below it could indicate a bearish trend. To confirm, we need to see $62.7k act as solid support. We’ve already had two fake breakouts, so the chances of another are slim, but not impossible. D: Over the last four days, BTC quickly moved from the bottom to the top of its Bollinger Bands. Coinbase reported 13.5k transactions on Monday—a strong volume, but not as high as in January or October 2023, when this bull run began. This suggests that larger institutional players are still waiting on the sidelines, watching closely. Despite the Fed’s rate cut and China’s $25 billion stimulus, global liquidity has been declining for the last 29 days. 4h: The RSI has hit 75, indicating an overbought condition. If you pull a Fibonacci retracement, the 0.618 level aligns with $64 k, which also coincides with previous weekly and daily resistance levels. This also matches the October 7th high, forming a critical level of interest. 1h: On Monday at 11 am Shanghai time, a large green candle kicked off a rally. Ten hours later, New York bulls joined the action, extending the pump. The rally lasted 19 hours, pushing BTC up by 6.23%. Alts Relative to BTC: Altcoins are moving in tandem with BTC, but this rally isn’t as much about alts as it is about Bitcoin. While BTC gained 5%, ETH, SOL, and NEAR only posted gains of 6.x%, and none have reached their previous highs. SUI, APT, and TAO have even corrected slightly after their substantial gains of 100% or more over the last 30-40 days, leaving them room to consolidate. Bull Case: We’re on the verge of exiting the bull flag pattern. Once the global liquidity index starts rising again, markets will likely be flooded with cheap money, fueling risk-on assets like crypto. A bounce off the $62.7k level will confirm it as support, pushing the bullish narrative. Bear Case: If we see a third fake breakout, it could trap all the bulls. Fear and Greed Index: Currently at 56, still in Neutral territory but just 4 points away from Greed. Prediction: The outlook remains bullish, provided we don’t see another fake breakout, and $62.7k can be established as a solid support level.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-14 EOD Update - Rally Rally RallyWhat a great day for my followers! I created my Roadmap for all of you, and the markets have started this week doing exactly what I expected regarding the SPY/QQQ and Gold/Silver. Next, we should see the rally continue in the SPY/QQQ, and Gold/Silver are moving into an Apex Breakaway setup, which could be very explosive to the upside. Remember, what I do behind the scenes to prepare and understand market conditions is much deeper than what you see in these videos. Every weekend (and most days), I spend quite a bit of time trying to understand what is really taking place beneath the price charts. That is where I gain a deeper understanding of what to expect and how prices will react to changing market dynamics. So, if you like what you see in my Plan Your Trade videos - remember there is much more to do this efficiently than what I'm showing you in these Videos. Also, remember, a Win is a Win. Book it and call it good. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
5
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-14 : GapUp-Lower In Counter TrendGood morning, This video highlights what I expect to happen in the SPY/QQQ, Gold/Silver, and Bitcoin over the next 5 to 7+ days. Remember, I'm using my proprietary modeling systems, SPY/Gold Cycle Patterns, and other research to share a roadmap of expected price action 5- 7+ days into the future. I don't know anyone else who can do this research accurately and provide such clear trade/entry/exit signals. This week should be exciting as we'll see multiple opportunities in the SPY/QQQ and Gold/Silver. Bitcoin is nearing a Phase #4 (consolidation) trigger near recent highs. At this point, traders need to wait for a breakout of the recent range before getting more aggressive with BTCUSD. Let's get some this week. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #es #nq #gold
AMEX:SPYLong
by BradMatheny
2
QQQ Weekly Outlook (SPY) for OCT 14, 2024A week ago, I provided a weekly long-term view of QQQ (link below): I annotated that by looking at the weekly time frame, we can note that QQQ has been bouncing off the weekly trendline (TL) that started back in JAN 2023. It has touched and bounced off that trendline 3x so far: -MARCH 2023 -OCTOBER 2023 -AUGUST 2024 We started OCT 7th week around 487 and closed end of week at 493.36 Based on technical analysis, QQQ is in a triangle pattern with the top trendline starting on JULY 17th and then hitting it again several other times: -SEPT 26 -OCT 9 -OCT 10 -OCT 11 The bottom trendline starts on AUG 5th and touches again on: -SEPT 6 -SEPT 9 -SEPT 10 -SEPT 11 Another TL was drawn on SEPT 11 up which price has been respecting: -OCT 2 -OCT 3 -OCT 4 -OCT 7 -OCT 8 -OCT 11 This has cause price to get tighter and tighter against JULY 17th TOP TL. In addition, price has been making Higher Lows (HL) and Higher Highs (HH) starting from AUG 5th until current date. The following are the HH/HL: HL: AUG 5/ SEPT 6 - 11 / OCT 1 - 3 HH: AUG 22 / SEPT 26 / OCT 11 The GAP that was created between JULY 16 - 17 was filled on SEPT 26 causing the market to GAP REJECT and push price down. Price has once again come back to that gap and closed above it. GAPS can be used in several ways. One being the initial rejection. As price is back above it again, what was once resistance / supply can now be potentially turned into support / demand. The second method can be the INVERSION of a GAP. Utilizing my longer thesis from last week along with the new / current data, a bullish sentiment is formed going into this week for the following reason: -Two bottom TLs have been respected and acted as support -Higher Lows/Higher Highs are being made -Price closed above the GAP that that acted initially as resistance and now turned into support (inversion) -No economic catalyst for bearish scenario 'yet' -Price had a strong close above the 5 and 8 EMA on the daily time frame. Price Targets: PT1: $498.44 PT2: $500 PT3: $501.01 PT4: $503.07 PT5: $503.52 PT6: $505 This is NOT financial advice but my opinion on the market. NASDAQ:AAPL NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:QQQ NYSE:ES SP:SPX #thestrat SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ AMEX:SPY SEED_ALEXDRAYM_SHORTINTEREST2:NQ NASDAQ:MSFT NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:AMD SaD
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SADnation
10/11 Can positive earnings season secure BTC Pumpctober?Overview: The AMEX:SPY continues its bullish streak, hitting a new all-time high and marking the fourth consecutive day of gains. But what’s fueling all this excitement? Just a few weeks ago, concerns about World War III and a looming recession were dominating the headlines. Now, it seems like the market is brushing off those fears. Pumping the AMEX:SPY means pushing up the stocks that make up the index, which suggests an improvement in their earnings, particularly net margins. Conveniently, earnings season typically starts in mid-October and runs through late October and early November. This past week, giants like PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, BlackRock, JPMorgan Chase, and Wells Fargo all reported earnings—and they all beat analysts' expectations. What’s notable about this group is its diversity: from consumer staples like food and beverages to airlines, signaling strong consumer purchasing power, to investment and banking companies, which are more dependent on macroeconomic factors and the Federal Reserve’s decisions. These companies, often beneficiaries of quantitative easing, could be the early indicators of a trend. With such a strong start, we might expect more companies to continue beating estimates, setting the stage for what we’re calling "Pumpctober." In the coming week, we’ll hear from other banking giants like Bank of America, Citigroup, and Goldman Sachs. Healthcare heavyweights like Johnson & Johnson and UnitedHealth Group are also on the docket, along with Netflix. You can find the full list and earnings calendar here: www.ii.co.uk So, let’s sum it up: the market is surging, consumer spending seems robust, and on Friday, Jerome Powell reported higher-than-expected CPI and core CPI. It feels like the economy is running hot, but that also means no immediate need for an interest rate cut. What clouds the picture slightly is a higher-than-expected number of jobless claims—258k compared to the expected 230k, and higher than the previous 225k. If unemployment continues to rise, it could impact company earnings by Q1 and Q2 of 2025. For now, though, we’re all in on Pumpctober, with a 90% chance of an interest rate cut in November, up from 82%. ETF Flow: The big players aren’t buying BINANCE:BTCUSD or BINANCE:ETHUSDT . Retail investors are. BlackRock and Grayscale are still sitting on the sidelines. BTC TA: W: Bitcoin is barely holding onto the Bollinger Band MA and remains below the weekly and daily levels of $64 k. It’s also under the 2024 yearly point of control (Volume Profile indicator) level of $63.2k. However, we noticed that the current price is very close to the closing levels of the last two quarterly candles—June and September both closed at $62.6k. Until it breaks below $61.4k, we can’t call it bearish just yet. D: Thursday’s close below the key $60.5k level appeared to signal a breakout, but BTC quickly retraced, turning that breakdown into a fake-out. If the stock market keeps rallying, some of that liquidity and optimism could spill over into crypto, completing a bullish flag pattern. Saturday is showing some bullish momentum, but we need today’s candle to close above $62.8k to confirm a higher high. 4h: On this time frame, Bitcoin is battling strong resistance at $63k. It’s unlikely we’ll see significant movement on a Saturday, as market makers tend to be less active, but if BTC fails to break out from $63k, it would confirm a bearish trend, and shorting from here could offer a good entry point. 1h: On Friday, we saw 7 consecutive hours of aggressive buying starting at 9 am NYC time, with volume doubling the average and pushing BTC from $61.1k to $63k, a 3.19% jump. Alts Relative to BTC: What was a lower low for BTC was a higher low for ETH, SOL, NEAR, and BNB, which is a bullish sign. However, none of these alts have established a higher high, which cancels out the bullish sentiment. The best move for now is to avoid taking positions until there’s a major breakout with confirmation. Bull Case: We could be on the verge of a trend reversal, breaking the bullish flag pattern. Both the US and Chinese economies are about to be flooded with cheaper money, which could flow into speculative assets like crypto. Bear Case: This is an ideal moment to short BTC if it fails to reclaim resistance and turn it into support. The deadline for confirmation is Sunday evening. Fear and Greed Index: 43, back to Neutral. Prediction: All eyes are on Sunday, 9 pm EST and 6 pm PST, when Asian traders will return to their desks. Expect increased volatility as bulls and bears clash. Mistakes: Both SUI and TAO have continued to pump higher despite lower volumes and volatile price swings of around 15%. If it establishes a higher high, stalls and you short - at least you can trade the range while BTC decides its direction.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by EvgenCapital