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SPX ES - Welcome To The Fourth Quarter RodeoWhether you want to look at these markets like an American football game or the National Finals Rodeo/Calgary Stampede bull riding, this final quarter of the year is set up to be quite the fireworks show. The new JP Morgan fund options collar is illustrated on the chart, but let's put it into text: JPM is the seller of 41,000 calls with a strike of 4,515 JPM is the buyer of 41,000 puts with a strike of 4,055 JPM is the seller of 41,000 puts with a strike of 3,420 Expiry is December 29, 2023. So if you believe that JP Morgan, the pinnacle systemically important bank in the United States, is the market maker, the crude logic is that the bank is incentivized to: 1. Keep price away from 4,515 2. Drive price towards/under 4,055 3. Keep price away from 3,420 Now, this is cool, but last quarter was an identical setup at similar strikes, and JP Morgan paid the calls it sold at 4,600~ and its own puts at 4,200 expired worthless. A collar from a big fund is just a position and you should always remember the banks have the money to hedge, and hedge, and overhedge. And their overhedges, when combining with the psychological effect on both retail and fund-level market participants, can produce greater profits than the simple cashing in of their ostensible public positions. The problem for SPX and equities bulls right now is that if a new all time high was to be set, we should have bounced to start October. The meaning of this is that filling in the range of the giant June uppy candle is actually bearish. Because it's fundamentally bearish, we have no reason to believe that downside pivots are not the target. Ergo, we have no reason to justify long trades as more than a single-or-intraday scalp until a significant low is taken. And that low should involve the May 4,062.25 target. A raid below that, a consolidation above 4,000, a manipulation raid slightly under 4,000 to eat stops, and then a rip back to take out "resistance" at the 4,634 double top before the end of the year AND possible run the all time high, is absolutely the trade thesis. A raid on 4,062 happens to put JPM's long puts directly in the money and they'll be free to exit with profit. Then, the bank can pay or mitigate the buyers of its 4,515 calls before expiry, all while making bears hate their life. If this all plays out as anticipated, 2024 will be significantly dark clouds. Always keep in mind that 2023 opened in a straight line uppy, and year candles VERY rarely repeat their patterns twice. What is "the bear thesis" really predicated on? It's not the Federal Reserve or such and such recession. It's the situation in Mainland China. There's a total worldwide media blackout on what's going on inside China. But how much longer can the Chinese Communist Party and the boundless and eternal sins of organ harvesting Falun Dafa's 100 million students at the hands of Jiang Zemin since July 20, 1999 continue forward? The Wuhan Pneumonia pandemic has claimed millions and millions of lives inside the Mainland, and that's before the catastrophes from the Party's corrupt officials itself, and all the flooding and economic damage. In short, the CCP will soon fall before our very eyes, and everything will change. 2024 Presidential Election theatre in the United States won't really matter. If you want to have a bright future and happiness, you need to turn off the television, turn off the radio, turn off YouTube, get off TikTok, and go outside and be in your community in real life. You need to cut the brainwashing and start valuing virtue again, start living like humans again, start thinking like a human again. Heaven is watching to see who can stand against the Red Demon of the Chinese Communist Party's international "United Front" parasite campaigns. Whoever can't is considered the worst kind of loser. But for now, fade the so-called "bottom" at 4,250 and strongly consider buying 3,985. Just make sure you dump it, dump it again, and cash out at 4,700 or 4,800. The happy days humans dream of not only never existed, but are forever gone. Everything is about to become stringently serious.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by LordWrymouth
4
SPY $400-$410 Support LevelNo need to overthink this one. Pretty clear trend line on a linear chart. Why linear? Cause we aren't looking at multiples in price change, logarithmic wouldn't be best used here, and I have seen many charts showing false trend lines with a log chart. Logarithmic scales are useful when the data you are displaying is much less or much more than the rest of the data or when the percentage differences between values are important. This is not the case, we are only looking at price change from 2020-2023. $400-$410 is a strong support level which I expect to hold, or at least bounce off of. However, this does not mean I expect the SP500 to break to new highs. Ultimately, I cannot predict whether we crash or break to new highs, but I would lean to lower lows. So be cautious here. I plan to open some cheap $420-$430 November calls under $410.
AMEX:SPYLong
by bishopknight
NASDAQ Price Trends Analysis: Identifying Overvaluation Periods The NASDAQ, one of the most closely watched stock indices globally, is often characterized by its volatility and tendency to be influenced by tech and growth stocks. In this analysis, we will examine three key elements: periods of overvaluation represented by "circles," the potential presence of hidden bullish RSI divergence in green, and bearish RSI divergence in red. 2. Overvaluation Periods: The "circles" in the NASDAQ context may be interpreted as periods when stock valuations are likely to be overextended. Investors, driven by excessive optimism, may push stock prices to unsustainable levels relative to underlying company fundamentals. These overvaluation periods can be attributed to various factors, including irrational market enthusiasm, speculative bubbles, or favorable macroeconomic conditions. To identify these periods, a graphical analysis of NASDAQ price movements, highlighting significant price spikes or speculative bubbles, can be valuable. The goal is to identify moments when price trends significantly deviate from the overall trajectory. 3. Hidden Bullish RSI Divergence in Green: Hidden bullish RSI divergence in green on the chart can suggest potential improvement in the underlying market strength, even when prices continue to decline or remain stagnant. This situation could imply a possible trend reversal to the upside. 4. Bearish RSI Divergence in Red: Bearish RSI divergence in red on the chart may indicate potential weakness in the upward trend, even if prices continue to rise. This can signal a potential trend reversal to the downside. 5. Conclusion: In summary, the NASDAQ, as a major stock index, experiences significant fluctuations. "Circles" may indicate overvaluation periods, while hidden bullish RSI divergence in green and bearish RSI divergence in red can signal potential opportunities for trend reversal. It is essential for investors to closely monitor these indicators and incorporate them into their decision-making processes. However, it is important to note that stock market investments come with inherent risks, and no technical analysis can guarantee success. It is highly recommended that investors consult with qualified financial advisors before making investment decisions. This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and stock market investments carry risks.
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by HolderYoda
Nasdaq Bank Index: Putting A Bad Hair Day Into PerspectiveElon Musk still sees danger ahead for the US economy if the Fed does not contain the regional banking crisis. Financial blog Zero Hedge previously tweeted about the critical role of small and medium-sized banks in the US financial system — a hot topic following the sharp collapse this month of Silicon Valley Bank, a technology startup lender and the first bank to be taken over by regulators since the 2008 financial crisis. Small and medium banks account for 50% of commercial and industrial lending and 60% of residential real estate lending, among other loans, notes Zero Hedge with accompanying charts. “If the Fed does not contain the collapse of regional banks, there will be another Great Depression,” it wrote, referring to the economic crisis that lasted from 1929 to 1939. "This is a serious risk," Musk replied to Zero Hedge. According to the US Department of Labor, in 1933, at the height of the Great Depression, approximately 25% of the 12.8 million people in the US labor force were unemployed. This wasn't the first time Musk had intervened on his social media about the collapse of the SVB. Last week, he compared the bank failure to the Wall Street crash of the 1920s that preceded the Great Depression. "There are a lot of similarities this year with 1929," Tesla CEO said in response to a post from Ark Invest' Cathy Wood. Nasdaq Bank Index BSE:BANK includes securities of companies listed on the NASDAQ that are classified under the industry classification benchmark as banks. These include banks that provide a wide range of financial services, including retail banking, loans and money transfers. On February 5, 1971, the underlying NASDAQ Bank Index was 100 points.
B
by Pandorra
5
EURO VS U.S. DOLLAR. TO LOW, OR NOT TO LOW. THIS IS THE QUESTIONThis publication is for Euro against U.S. dollar, and quick and simple as well as all other publications by @Pandorra 2023 is about the end, so let's take a look on technical perspectives for FX:EURUSD . The main graph is EURUSD semi-annual 6-month chart (yes, they also exist on TradingView, as well as quarterly 3-month charts and annual 12-month charts). EURUSD is being concentrated on multi year floor, with lowest levels at semi-annual close around 1.05 (actual again in this time). Well, recently being inspired with finding NASDAQ:TLT multi year floor, I guess that breaking down the 1.05 floor in EURUSD can turn the price much and much lower. Maybe to 1.6 Euro for 1 U.S. Dollar somewhere in mid or late 2020s, or early 2030s. Patience.. Patience.. and once again Patience.. The Time will show.
by Pandorra
Tech stock Vs Energy stocks. The Competition for Decades This is an education-style publication where the main graph is a comparison (ratio) between two ETFs (funds) managed by State Street Global Advisors Corporation, the creator of the world’s first ETF (well-known in nowadays as AMEX:SPY ) and an indexing pioneer. The first one ETF is The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLK . 👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the Technology sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX . 👉 AMEX:XLK seeks to provide precise exposure to companies from Technology hardware, storage, and peripherals; software; communications equipment; semiconductors and semiconductor equipment; IT services; and electronic equipment, instruments and components. 👉 AMEX:XLK is a place where securities of American World-known Technology companies like Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , like Nvidia Corp. NASDAQ:NVDA and American Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD , like Cisco Systems Inc. NASDAQ:CSCO and Adobe Inc. NASDAQ:ADBE meet together. 👉 In contrast with other Technology-related ETFs like NASDAQ:QQQ (Invesco Nasdaq 100 Index ETF) or NASDAQ:ONEQ (Fidelity Nasdaq Composite Index ETF), stocks allocation in AMEX:XLK depends not only on their market capitalization, but also hugely on Technology industry allocation (like software, technology hardware, storage & peripherals, semiconductors & semiconductor equipment, IT services, communications equipment, electronic equipment instruments & components). That is why allocation of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLK ( Microsoft Corp. NASDAQ:MSFT , Apple Inc. NASDAQ:AAPL and Broadcom Inc. NASDAQ:AVGO ) prevails 50 percent of Funds assets under management. 👉 Typically AMEX:XLK holdings are Growth investing stocks. The second one ETF is The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund, AMEX:XLE . 👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide investment results that provide an effective representation of the energy sector of the S&P 500 Index SP:SPX . 👉 AMEX:XLE seeks to provide precise exposure to companies in the oil, gas and consumable fuel, energy equipment and services industries. 👉 AMEX:XLE allows investors to take strategic or tactical positions at a more targeted level than traditional style based investing. 👉 AMEX:XLE is a place where stocks of American World-known Oil companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM and Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX , like EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG and ConocoPhillips NYSE:COP , like Valero Energy Corp. NYSE:VLO and Phillips 66 NYSE:PSX meet each other. 👉 Weight of Top 3 holdings in AMEX:XLE (Exxon Mobil Corp. NYSE:XOM , Chevron Corp. NYSE:CVX and EOG Resources Corp. NYSE:EOG ) prevails 45 percent of Funds assets under management. 👉 Typically AMEX:XLE holdings are Value investing stocks. The main graph represents different stock market stages of work 🔁 Early 2000s, or post Dot-com Bubble stage, that can be characterized as Energy Superiority Era. There were no solid Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR were huge like nowadays. Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jumped as much as $150 per barrel. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds collapsed more than in 10 times over this stage. 🔁 Late 2000s to early 2010s, or post Housing Bubble stage, that can be characterized as a Beginning of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned lower. Bitcoin born. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds hit the bottom. 🔁 Late 2010s to early 2020s, or post Brexit stage, that can be characterized as a Continuation of Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR turned to Zero or so. Crude oil turned to Negative prices in April 2020 while Bitcoin hit almost $70,000 per coin in 2021. Ben Bernanke (14th Chairman of the Federal Reserve In office since Feb 1, 2006 until Jan 31, 2014) was awarded the 2022 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, jointly with Douglas Diamond and Philip H. Dybvig, "for research on banks and financial crises", "for bank failure research" and more specifically for his analysis of the Great Depression. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds becomes great and respectively with monetary stimulus hit the all time high. 🔁 Early 2020s, or post Covid-19 Bubble stage, that specifically repeats early 2000s Energy Superiority Era. There is no again Quantitative Easing and Money printing. U.S. Treasury Bond Interest rates TVC:TNX , TVC:TYX as well as U.S. Federal Funds Rate ECONOMICS:USINTR are huge nowadays like many years ago. Commodities prices like Wheat CBOT:ZW1! , Cocoa ICEUS:CC1! , Coffee ICEUS:KC1! , Crude oil prices TVC:UKOIL , TVC:USOIL jump again to historical highs. The ratio between AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLE funds is fading to moderate levels that can be seen as 200-Month simple moving average. 💡 In a conclusion.. I wonder, how the history repeats itself. This is all because markets are cyclical, and lessons of history always still remain unlearned. 💡 Author thanks PineCoders TradingView Community, especially to @disster PineCoder for its excellent and simple script Quantitative Easing Dates . Based on this script, Easing Dates are highlighted at the graph.
AMEX:XLKEducation
by Pandorra
$QQQ, $NQ, NASDAQ, QQQ short positionsNASDAQ:QQQ continues to weaken; I am short with various entries in the yellow box. Now that NASDAQ:QQQ has established a newer "lower-low" it may rally a little; but it is overall short. As such I'll be considering $374 as the top of my new box with $368 as the likely resistance zone to press these shorts. I think we'll see a run on that resistance zone by late November that; given the weakness proven by the lower-low, will likely fail. Liquidity is much lower; somewhere like $320. So the current liquidity pool will likely be broken sometime soon, next 2 months.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by DarthTrader1357
US 100 INDEX. THREE WORDS THAT YOU SHOULD KNOW - LET'S GO DIVINGThere are looming risks that could "break" the US economy and end its current growth cycle. Third-quarter GDP estimates are tracking above 5% and the US economy has added more than 2 million jobs year-to-date. But there are three looming risks that could "break" the stock market and economy and end its current growth cycle, according to a Tuesday note from Ned Davis Research. These are the three risks to consider. 1. A resurgence in inflation Inflation has made progress in trending towards the Federal Reserve's long-term 2% target after CPI peaked at about 9% last June, but any resurgence in rising prices would threaten the trajectory of the Fed's current tightening cycle. 2. The 10-year Treasury yield is around 5.00% The 10-year US Treasury yield has surged so far this year, hitting a 16-year high of 5.02% on Monday. A further increase in this key benchmark rate would spell trouble for the broader economy, specifically if the yield breaks above the 5.25% level. The 5.00 - 5.50% yield range TVC:TNX was an important double-top in 2006/2007, and also represented the peak policy rate of that tightening cycle. So perhaps we wouldn't take a break of that level lightly. Higher interest rates increase borrowing rates for consumers and businesses and often curtail demand, leading to slower economic growth, if not a contraction in growth. The 10-year US Treasury yield was at 4.86% on Tuesday. 3. Credit conditions deteriorating So far this year, the bond market has been more concerned about interest rate risks than credit risks. Technical graph below for US 100 Index NASDAQ:NDX says that main 125-Day SMA support has been broken as well as major upside trend, and technical figure known as "Head and Shoulders" is in progress right now.
TVC:NDQ
by Pandorra
Technology to Energy RatioEverything is cyclical. Every asset has its own cycle eventually in its own time. From Crypto to Real estate and Technology. I crossed compared the Energy sector to the Technology Sector. XLE/QQQ Then overlaid the Technology Sector to the Energy Sector QQQ/XLE As you can see there is many clues where one will always outperform the other. You just have to hold these assets where one is gaining vs the other. One asset will suck the liquidity of the other and visa versa until one completes the cycle then it repeats Hard assets are primed for outperformance. Happy Investing
Editors' picks
AMEX:XLE
by AxeCapp
9
All indicators are negative for QQQLast Friday QQQ broke the upward trend line for 2023 on the daily and weekly charts - see my earlier post. Lower highs and my favourite indicators are pointing south on both the daily and weekly. Note the downward trend on MACD and RSI since June. So it will probably fall further. There's support right now around 354-355 so perhaps a small bounce first? SPX, DJI, and the big 8 are looking the same. I guess 349 would be the obvious target for QQQ? It's a further 5 points down from Friday's close, and a sticking point back in June. And all that is before we consider the effects of likely developments in the Middle East *sigh* Not trading advice. Do your own research.
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by lavoriamo
Long term gold.Long term entries and exits for 20 year bonds and SP500 (via SPY) in correlation solely to FED interest rates and US inflation rate adjustments. Here's my personal game plan going forward with this in mind- not war news. Starting to add TMF (20 year treasury 3X) equity now. ~Sell covered calls on it until FED pivot lowering interest rates. ~Add all TMF covered call profit to equity until FED pivot lowering interest rates. ~Hold TMF equity until the following FED pivot where they begin increasing interest rates again- no matter how long that may be. Last time, that took from Jan, 2020-Oct,2021. The time before that, was April, 2007- July 2015. As shown by the vertical blue lines on the interest rate chart, fed has previously held interest rates at 5.5% for years at a time. Specifically, from January, 1995 to April, 1998. Then, raising rates again in April, 1999 through October 2000. The tech bubble soon followed that.. If we are comparing things to then, and fed did get things right this time around and achieved the "soft landing," then we will see equities continue to do well as they did in 1995-2000. We would have potentially years worth of gains before reaching price to earnings levels anywhere near previous over valued levels... Where QQQ P/E ratio was a crazy 190 in March, 2000. Meanwhile, today, QQQ P/E ratio is 32.88. A huge fundamental difference. Which is even an 8% premium discount in relation to QQQ's 3 year average P/E today of 30.45 In 2000, 10 year bond yields reached 6.03% As of October 16, 2023, the 10 year bond yield was 4.71%. Showing previous radical levels include much more room for todays markets. Now., if we are comparing things to 2008 when banks were writing sub prime loans and simultaneously dealing with FED interest rates at 5.5%, the span that rates were that high was only from April 2006-April 2007. As sited to Forbes.com, "By early 2007, the housing bubble was bursting and the unemployment rate started to rise. With the economy failing, the FOMC started reducing rates in September 2007, eventually slashing rates by 2.75 percentage points in less than a year." In which that case we saw SPY equities lose 57% from October, 2007- March 2009. Worldly/economic conditions are clearly different today than in 2000 and 2008. Those are simply references from similar fiscal conditions where outcomes ultimately contradicted each other. To continue, from looking at past market reactions, I will ]continue holding TMF up until the point when FED pivots to begin increasing rates again. Subsequently, this will not happen until US inflation rate is below the 2% target goal. When US inflation is back down to 2% goal but not until, sell all 20 year bonds and start dollar cost averaging equal weight into: XLG- SP500 top 50 fund paying 8.5% dividend SVOL- Inverse vix paying 17% dividend TQQQ- QQQ 3X SOXL- Semiconductors 3X As for the current technical level of SP500 (SPY)...we are currently at the level going back to October of 2021. This is when market reacted to FED starting to increase interest rates again. To summarize, if fed were to raise rates again this coming November 1st, this support level will likely get bought up by the same buyers who bought in October, 2021 and January, 2023. Especially now that US interest rate is at 3.7% compared to the 6.7% it was in October of 2021. When you look at the reality of that, essentially the same SPY price today is 3% less inflated than it was 2 years ago at the crazy high covid spending levels. Adding that with the current P/E levels, I genuinely don't know if that is a fair value. One thing I'm certain of, big money knows. They clearly seem to follow the interest rate pivot decisions for market bottoms and tops. For 2024-2025, if FED lowers interest rates for any unexpected/surprising reason we haven't been notified of yet, equities price action absolutely would be on a path similar to 2000 or 2008. Essentially returning to pre covid levels. In return, bond yields would crash while the face value massively increases. Which is why my main play is TMF- leveraged 20 year bonds.
ECONOMICS:USINTR
by raylanboogie
NVDA AAPL MSFT AMZN GOOGL META TSLA Price Forecast00:00 Economic Data, AAII Sentiment Data, Earnings, Fear & Greed Index 02:59 QQQ Stock Price Forecast 07:08 Sp500 ETF Price Forecast 08:59 Tesla Stock TSLA Forecast Technical Analysis 11:09 Nvidia Stock NVDA Forecast Technical Analysis 12:35 Apple Stock AAPL Forecast Technical Analysis 14:52 Amazon Stock AMZN Forecast Technical Analysis 16:40 Google Stock GOOGL Forecast Technical Analysis 17:43 Microsoft Stock MSFT Forecast Technical Analysis 18:36 Meta Forecast Technical Analysis
NASDAQ:QQQLong
by ArcadiaTrading