QQQ
QQQ to $392Trading Pattern
QQQ has formed an ascending channel which may prove to be very lucrative for derivative trading. Utilizing Elliott Impulse and Correction Waves within the support and resistance lines, Wave 4 may dip as low as $392 which is a few dollars shy of a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level.
Technical Indicators
A bearish RSI divergence has been present since the share price surpassed $400; the RSI highs retain a negative slope while the share price highs have a positive slope (both reflected in yellow). This supports the Elliott Wave Theory and ascending channel pattern as the share price is currently at, or soon approaching, the crest of Wave 3 as well as the ascending channel resistance line.
QQQ may experience a slight bump upwards indicated by the RSI line (green) which appears to be close to crossing the MA line (red) from beneath. However, due to its close proximity to overbought territory, I believe selling pressure will begin soon after as might be indicated by the MACD.
The MACD technical indicator shows a tightly wound MACD line (green) and Signal line (red). The MACD line is within dangerous territory of crossing its Signal line from above which is a bearish indicator and suggests an increase in selling pressure followed by a correction in share value.
QQQ A Fall Expected! SELL!
My dear friends,
QQQ looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 436.74 pivot level.
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear short signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bearish trend of the market.
Goal - 426.12
Recommended Stop Loss - 441.83
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
US-Market SentimentUS Market Sentiment and Swing-Trading Considerations -
NASDAQ Heatmap
Color-Coded Performance Indicators:
Green Boxes: Represent stocks that have had positive performance over the past week. The intensity of the green color indicates the level of positive performance, with darker greens showing stronger gains.
Red Boxes: Represent stocks that have experienced negative performance. Similarly, darker reds show larger declines.
Sector Analysis:
Technology Services: Companies like NASDAQ:MSFT (Microsoft) and NASDAQ:GOOG (Alphabet) show moderate gains, suggesting a positive sentiment in the technology services sector.
Electronic Technology: A mixed view with significant gains by NASDAQ:NVDA (NVIDIA Corporation) but a slight decline in NASDAQ:AAPL (Apple) indicating a divergence in performance within this sector.
Retail Trade: NASDAQ:AMZN (Amazon.com Inc) shows a strong performance, which is a positive sign for the e-commerce space within retail. However, PDD and MELI experienced notable declines.
Health Technology: Mostly green with strong performances from companies like AZN, indicating good momentum in this sector.
Consumer Durables: NASDAQ:TSLA (Tesla Motors, Inc.) is down significantly, which could suggest a potential concern for the electric vehicle or broader consumer durables market.
Consumer Non-Durables: A mix of performance, though PEP is up, which might indicate stability in consumer staples.
Notable Stock Movements:
NVDA: The strong gain suggests investor confidence or positive news related to the semiconductor industry or the company specifically.
ADBE: The notable decline could be due to earnings reports, market sentiment, or sector-related news impacting software companies.
AMZN: A substantial increase like this could be driven by positive earnings, favorable market news, or successful business ventures.
TSLA: A sharp decline may be the result of negative press, disappointing earnings, or adverse industry developments.
Market Sentiment:
The overall market sentiment can be gauged by the balance of green to red. In this heatmap, green appears more prevalent in larger squares (representing larger companies by market cap), suggesting a cautiously optimistic sentiment among major players.
Considerations for Swing Trading:
Momentum Stocks: Stocks like AMZN and NVDA with strong positive momentum could be considered for a swing trade, following Minervini’s principle of trading in sync with the market trend.
Volume and Price Action: Before making trading decisions, it's important to analyze the volume and price action for confirmation of the trends suggested by the heatmap.
Potential Reversals: Stocks like TSLA and ADBE that have experienced significant drops might be scrutinized for potential reversals if they approach technical support levels.
Final Thoughts:
This heatmap is a snapshot and does not provide the granularity needed to make a final trading decision. It is a starting point for identifying potential stocks to trade. A trader following Minervini’s methodology would look for specific technical setups, such as tight price consolidation, relative strength, and trading volume, among other factors, before entering a trade.
It's also important to consider that the heatmap shows past performance, which is not always indicative of future results. Each potential trade should be evaluated in the context of current market conditions, news, and comprehensive technical analysis.
Opening (IRA): QQQ April 19th 405 Monied Covered Call... for a 397.94 debit.
Comments: Re-establishing here in the Q's with a +25 delta monied covered call to take advantage of call side skew.
Will look to add at intervals, dispersing risk across expiries, and generally take profit at 50% max and/or roll out the short call on test.
Metrics:
Max Profit: 7.06 ($706)
ROC %-age at Max/50% Max: 1.77% at max; .89 at 50% max
Break Even/Cost Basis: 397.94
Delta/Theta: 25.42/11.42
NDVA 775 plus or minus 3 has been hit 5th of 5 ?The chart posted is that of NVDA . I now feel the RISK is at a 10 out of 10 .based on wave structure and the relationships within the waves . last week I talked about 2.618 on a log scale as being an issue and we saw the reaction at that point 733 we then declined in an ABC and wave 2 and 4 were equal . I then labeled the decline as wave4 waves 1 and 5 would be equal at 775 plus or minus 3 so now I can count a 5 wave structure and on NEWS we are also just outside the daily BB bands and at a trendline . Can we extend yes will we ? . I trade only based on MATH and EW . I will now EXIT ALL LONGS IN QQQ this morning and SMH GOOG AAPL and move to a 105% in CASH .BEST of Trades WAVETIMER .
SPY- Open Put Options to Hedge Long Stocks SHORTSPY on the 15-minute chart seems to have hit a pivot high. With a variety of long positions,
I need some insurance against a bull trap or even a black swan event in geopolitics. It seems
SPY puts would fulfill the purpose. Out of the money below the current price seems
opportunistic. Accordingly, I will take a handful of put options that expire at the mid- March
monthly 1% below current price. If the market is healthy these will drop in value especially
with time decay. They will serve as insurance. On the other hand if the market gets a cold
or worse a bad case of COVID, these will partially offset any losses while managing positions.
QQQ confirmed daily lower highOn Friday QQQ set daily lower high, marking potential trend reversal. Now bears must lead price all the way down (below 425.3) to start weekly consolidation. If this doesn't happen fast and bulls manage to set daily higher low then uptrend continuation is still an option.
Also notable that bulls were able to close price gap from Tuesday, and bull wave retracement is over 50%. This talks in favor of bulls strength and increases probability of daily higher low.
Hourly price action is currently in downtrend but given the context I would be looking for hourly trend reversal signals
Disclaimer
I don't give trading or investing advices, just sharing my thoughts
SPY falls into mean VWAP support for LONGSPY on the 1H chart was riding the cynamic resistance of the second upper VWAP line
in mid July but then pivoted down out of a head and shoulders at the bottom of the month
and is now bounding up and down retesting the support of the mean VWAP line.
The ADX indicator shows the flat line directional index. The ZL MACD is upgoing after a
cross of the lines at the lows. Price is impending another VWAP crossover on the
retest. I see this as an excellent base from which to take call options long targeting
$453 for both 8/18 and 9/1. Please leave a comment, will SPY turn it around here or
seek the downside?
RSI Negative Divergence: Possible Market Pullback (SPY, QQQ)UNDERLYING PRINCIPLE:
Divergence between Futures/Stocks/ETFs and their Relative Strength Index (RSI) can be used to predict a bottom or a top. This method is more useful in determining a reversal in overall market than an individual stock. To elaborate the principle let's assume the market is making higher highs but corresponding RSI is making lower highs. Together this uptrend in the market and downtrend in RSI show that the market is losing strength as it is climbing up. Which essentially implies a reversal/pullback in the market.
The same principle can also be applied in determining a possible bottom in the market. Say if the market is making lower lows and corresponding RSI is making higher lows. In that case we can expect an upward reversal of the market.
Current Scenario: Possible Pullback
To inspect the current market I used weekly and daily charts for Nasdaq and S&P 500 ETFs NASDAQ:QQQ and AMEX:SPY .
In NASDAQ:QQQ weekly the negative divergence is eminent as the ETF is making higher high but the RSI is making lower high. If we zoom further into a daily setup then the same negative divergence can be spotted:
For AMEX:SPY on the other hand no divergence can be observed on a weekly setup:
But on a daily setup a Negative Divergence can be detected:
Recent History: Bear Market Bottom
As you can see in both weekly charts, the recent bear market bottom has been identified using the same method: A Positive Divergence.
Thanks for reading.
Sector Rotation Before CPI (SPY, QQQ)Clear sector rotation has been observed a day before CPI data release on Tuesday morning. It seems traders are getting out of Technology ( AMEX:XLK ) stocks and defensive sectors like Utilities ( AMEX:XLU ), Basic Materials ( AMEX:XLB ) as well as Industrials ( AMEX:XLI ) have been climbing up.
HIGHLIGHT:
The chart depicts S&P 500 ETF ( AMEX:SPY ) along with a ranking of all the major sectors at the bottom of the chart in an hourly setup. During the final hours of the last trading day (Monday) there has been a sharp sell-off of tech stocks as the industrials and basic materials have climbed up in strength.
A slow decline in Health Care ( AMEX:XLV ) and gradual rise in Financials ( AMEX:XLF ) over last few days have also been observed.
Please note that the first CPI of the year (January) usually creates volatility in the market. Which has also been observed in above 3% rise in the Volatility Index ( CBOE:VIX / AMEX:UVXY ) looking into the CPI release.
s3.tradingview.com
2/12 Weekly Plan. NQ Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 18,0072/12 Weekly Plan. NQ Futures March ESH24 Weekly Pivot is 18,007
Targets
18,112
18,270
18,426
Targets
17,864
17,660
17,482
Now trading at 18,030
Alerts
You will receive alerts in this channel every time NQ hits (2M candle close):
Weekly opening TBD
Weekly pivot at 18,007
Each weekly target.
Side notes
NQ is currently OTFU in (D-W-M), daily timeframe.