SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-11 : Inside Breakaway PatternHappy Friday.
Today's Inside Breakaway pattern for the SPY should prompt a solid rally attempt - where the SPY/QQQ should rally higher to close out the week. I'm targeting the 580+ level for the SPY over the next 5+ trading days.
Gold and Silver are moving into a Top-Resistance pattern. This suggests Gold and Silver will rally, form a peak, then roll slightly downward today. I'm still targeting the 2670-2680+ level for Gold as a peak today. Silver will lag, but will likely setup a peak near 32.00.
Bitcoin collapsed, then recovered overnight - forming a very large Deep-V base. Now, this recent recovery is setting up as a Bearish Excess Phase Peak pattern and may likely roll into the Downward Flagging phase.
Be aware, this type fo deep low was the result of a Bullish Excess Phase Peak pattern completing the full 5 phases - ultimately reaching the "ultimate low" with the Deep-V bottom.
This current setup in BTCUSD suggests price will attempt to recover as long as the Deep-V low price is not breached.
Volatility is here. Price ranges will continue to be volatile through and after the US elections.
So be aware that news, data, or other items may cause price to react very violently over the next 2+ months.
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QQQ
75% gains BUY/HOLD IWM/RUS2K C*H trade setup🔸Hello traders, today let's review 2daily chart for IWM . Entering re-accumulation stage now, expecting range bound trading during next fer months. We've hit heavy overhead resistace / limited upside currently.
🔸The speculative chart pattern is bullish C*H in progress, expect more range locked price action for a few months as we re-accumulate and get ready to clear the ATH. Measured move price projectiong for the C*H structure is 350 USD, 75% upside from the recommended BUY ZONE.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: wait for IWM to re-accumulate in the sliding
bull flag formation and get ready to BUY/HOLD low near 200 USD, target
based on measured move projection is 350 USD. good luck traders!
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
Semis may be ready to surge.NASDAQ:NVDA has reclaimed most daily supply and may trade into the earnings high if it can reclaim this week's range. NASDAQ:SMH has similarly reclaimed the daily 50 SMA and will go higher upon confirmation of the daily 100 SMA supply. Higher prices in semiconductors, such NASDAQ:AVGO as well, may help NASDAQ:QQQ follow AMEX:SPY to a new all-time high.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-10 : Carryover in Carryover ModeToday's cycle pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ price action will be very similar to yesterday's price action. I believe the markets are starting to move away from the basing/bottoming phase and moving back into trending phase.
Thus, I believe the SPY & QQQ will begin a rally up to highs reached before October 20-21, then form a top, and toll downward just before the US elections.
Gold needs to find some support and move higher - away from the 2625 price level. It is critical that Gold stay above 2620 at this stage. if Gold falls below 2620 - there is a very strong chance Gold will move into deeper consolidation and fail to rally above the 2750++ level I expect.
BTCUSD has already reached my lower support zone. I do expect Bitcoin to consolidate a bit near this lower price channel, but the next move is to either revert higher, or breakdown even further. Currently, I suggest waiting 20 to 48 hours with Bitcoin to let price settle on a new trend.
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80% gains AMD/NVDA Pairs Trade: Best Level to BUY/HOLD AMD🔸Hello traders, today let's review 4hour price chart for AMD.
Price structure is bullish inverted H*S setup with reload zone bulls
near 150 usd, currently expecting rejection near overhead resistance.
🔸AMD is trailing behind NVDA so far this year, YTD gains of 17%, NVDA
YTD gains at 167%. AMD is trailing behind NVDA massively and expecting
mean reversion / catch up trade later in 2025. AMD market cap sits
at 250 bln USD so it's an easy double from here. Fair value for AMD
is 500 bln USD, NVDA is valued at 3 T right now, which is massive.
🔸Recommended strategy bulls: Bulls wait for rejection from overhead resistance to confirm IHS setup / near 175 usd and wait for pullback/correction into mirror S/R level at 150/155 USD. BUY/HOLD setup, SL fixed at 125 USD TP1 is 250 USD TP2 is 300 USD in 2025. This is a swing trade setup with 80%+ upside potential, naturally more patience required to hit targets.
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RISK DISCLAIMER:
Trading Futures , Forex, CFDs and Stocks involves a risk of loss.
Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Always limit your leverage and use tight stop loss.
10/9 Good news and bad news...Overview:
Which would you prefer to hear first? Let’s start with the good news: the AMEX:SPY has updated its all-time high. If you have a 401k or any other pension fund, you’re likely seeing gains. Also, it's hard to argue that a recession is looming when the stock market is booming.
Now for the bad news: crypto is down. Normally, this wouldn’t be alarming, as all markets fluctuate. But it's concerning when we see a divergence between the stock market and crypto. Even riskier tech stocks, like those in the NASDAQ:QQQ index, climbed 0.79%. If traders are eager to buy equities, why not crypto, or at least BINANCE:BTCUSD ?
Tomorrow, all eyes will be on Jerome Powell as he delivers the CPI and Core CPI data along with initial jobless claims. Given that recent job reports nearly doubled expectations, we predict fewer jobless claims. The question is: will positive macroeconomic data help? On one hand, it means people have money to spend, which could benefit crypto. On the other hand, it could reduce the chances of aggressive rate cuts, keeping liquidity constrained, and preventing speculative assets from soaring.
BlackRock continues dollar-cost averaging into Bitcoin but hasn’t touched its ETH ETF. When did ETH become so hated?
CME fedwatch tool shows an increase in the probability of no rate cut in November, up to 17.2%, while the chances of a one-base-point cut sit at 82.2%.
BTC TA:
W: BTC needs to close above $61.4k to keep bulls in the game. Unfortunately, after today's drop, BTC fell below this crucial level, breaking the bullish structure it had been building since September 7th. Another important level is $62.7k, the point of control for the entire 2024 bull run, which was rejected yesterday. This week is shaping up to print another red candle, following the previous week.
D: While the weekly levels are invalidated, the daily levels still offer hope. BTC bounced from the $60.6k support level, and we haven’t seen four consecutive red days since August. If tomorrow's CPI data hints at a bullish sentiment, we might see a small rally back to $62.1k.
4h: Price is currently closer to the lowest Bollinger Band, indicating it needs to catch up with its moving average.
1h: BTC has reached the Bollinger Bands' moving average, but for a stronger recovery, it needs to break beyond this level on the 4h chart to confirm a bounce.
Alts Relative to BTC:
TAO, SUI, and APT have reached higher highs, but with lower volumes, suggesting that the bullish trend is losing steam. These gains were likely driven by retail investors, FOMOing into the rally. Meanwhile, FTM is showing bearish MACD divergence on the 4-hour chart and was rejected at its weekly resistance of $0.69.
Bull Case:
At $60k, BTC is relatively cheap, considering how much adoption and recognition crypto has gained in 2024. Since we didn’t experience a massive sell-off in September and have held up into October, this might be your last chance to buy BTC at a sub-$100k price. Additionally, we’re in the Fear territory on the Fear and Greed Index, which historically offers an 83% chance of profitability if bought during this phase.
Bear Case:
From a technical perspective, things look bearish. Many key support levels have been invalidated, and the likelihood of the Fed not cutting rates in November continues to rise.
Fear and Greed Index: 37 (Fear).
Prediction: BTC may rebound to $62.1k before resuming its decline. Expect TAO, SUI, and APT to follow BTC's movements, with a potential drop back to pre-BTC ETF levels, which could see declines of 55-60%.
Opportunities:
Short TAO, SUI, APT, FTM.
2024-10-09 - priceactiontds - daily update - nasdaqGood evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
nasdaq - Same as dax for me. Strong breakout and I do think we will retest 21000. September high is 20537 and there is a possibility, this continues to be resistance ut given the current context, the bulls are favored for higher prices.
comment : Nested bull wedges on the daily chart and the bear gap to 20650 is getting very small. Only resistance left is the September high 20537 and the current breakout looks strong enough to expect higher highs above it and likely a retest of 21000.
current market cycle: Bull trend (nested bull wedges)
key levels: 19800 - 21000
bull case: Bulls prevented the market to close below the daily 20ema for 6 days and today bears gave up. Market refuses to go down and now we will test higher again. Bulls have all the arguments on their side if they stay above 20200. Below their case gets shaky again.
Invalidation is below 20260.
bear case: Bears see the open bear gap to 20650 and the upper bull wedge line around that same price. They will likely try to fight the bulls around that area again but I don’t think they want to risk much at that level. Market refuses to go down and their next best level for good shorts is 21000. If you are looking hard for more bear arguments… Maybe that the current volume is utterly trash and on the 1h tf you have another bull wedge and we are at the high of it. Pullback could go as deep as 20300. Can bears hope for some hot CPI and jobless claims tomorrow? I doubt it but you should not be in positions when the news is released or have really wide stops for your swings.
Invalidation is above 20520.
short term: Max bullish if the pullback stays above 20300. Neutral below.
medium-long term: Very likely a retest of the ath before I expect a correction 10% or more, before another year end rally. Embrace the volatility.
current swing trade : Nope
trade of the day: Long the opening reversal. Was too strong to now long it, no ifs or buts.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-9 : Breakaway In Counter TrendToday's video goes over why I believe today will be somewhat quiet in terms of trending and expectations. As I suggested in the video, today is a good day to trade with only 20-30% position sizes - or to take a day off and go golfing.
I don't expect any big moves today - even though today's pattern is a Breakaway in Counter-trend mode.
I believe the markets will pause today - seeking support/resistance and trying to establish a range for a bigger move on Thursday/Friday.
I hope you guys are learning how to use the Excess Phase Peak patterns more efficiently. They are not easy to learn - especially now that I'm showing both the Ying & Yang side of these patterns.
They happen everywhere and can be very important when making decisions.
Remember, price only does two things: Trends or Flags.
That's it. There is no other type of price action you have to prepare for.
Get Some.
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10/8 Market Tensions as S&P500 Wobbles Ahead of CPI, BTC Holds.Overview:
The AMEX:SPY is hovering around its all-time highs, showing limited movement as investors await Thursday’s CPI report. Anticipation is building, but it seems the U.S. market may not make any significant moves until inflation data provides clearer direction.
BTC TA:
W: When examining the volume profile of this year's entire bull phase, the point of control—where the most trading volume occurred—stands at $63 K. This explains why BINANCE:BTCUSDT might consolidate at the current price range for longer than expected. Despite a second false breakout attempt, Bitcoin remains trapped between the crucial monthly support level of $61.4K and resistance at $64 K. On one hand, geopolitical tensions are escalating in the Middle East, while on the other, China's government has announced a $28 billion investment package. The SSE Composite Index surged 30%, though it recently corrected by 11% over the last two days. Notably, some of the significant green candles can be attributed to Asian market open times.
D: The daily chart paints a clear picture of the price struggling to escape bearish pressure. It’s hovering just below the Bollinger Bands’ moving average. Monday presented a bearish hammer, and Tuesday ended with an indecisive doji.
4h: No divergences are evident on the MACD or CVD. The RSI sits around 45, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure.
1h: Price is oscillating around the $62.2K point of control level without any strong signals for bullish or bearish momentum.
Alts relative to BTC: Major altcoins are moving in line with Bitcoin, with little divergence. However, SUI and TAO, after their impressive runs to all-time highs, have begun to correct.
Bull case: If Trump is re-elected, accompanied by more interest rate cuts, this could boost the bullish narrative. The bull flag on the weekly chart is becoming more apparent and, if it breaks out, could signal a further upward trend. The formation of a reverse head and shoulders at the beginning of July, August, and September also supports a bullish outlook.
Bear case: However, bears point out that we’re still in a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. The double fake bull breakouts in recent upticks further signal caution. The market lacks new narratives, and regulatory crackdowns continue. Major CEXs now require strict KYC compliance, cutting off trading access for users in China, the UK, the U.S., and other key markets. While VPNs offer a workaround, the risks of locked accounts on exchanges registered in jurisdictions like the Cayman Islands add significant risk for traders.
Fear and Greed Index: 41.71 - Neutral.
$XBI Breaking Out of Downtrend Line?I have put on a ½ size position in “anticipation” of a reversal. I have been in and out of the AMEX:XBI trade several times over the last 2 months. Overall, I have made a small amount of $$$ on several trades.
It looks like it may be in a pennant formation. We will not know that unless it continues upward from here. I have a tight stop on this just below yesterday’s low of $95.92.
Let’s see what happens.
$IWM Weekly Chart Looks BullishAMEX:IWM small caps have been volatile for quite a while now. I expect that volatility will continue until after the election. When looking at a daily chart it is hard to see any kind of pattern but zooming out to a weekly timeframe it looks to me that it has established a solid uptrend. I will be looking for an opportunity to get long for a move back to the upper trendline. But as you can see on the chart it has ventured outside the trendline but seldom closes above or below.
The distance between the lower trendline and the upper trendline measures just over 11% as measured in a straight line. I am looking to squeeze out 8% to 10% as a swing trade.
I have an alert just over yesterday’s high at $218.67. Should that trigger, I will put my stop just below last week’s low of 215.08. That looks like a good risk reward for me. All TBD.
Analyzing BTCUSD Using Excess Phase Peak PatternsI've been getting lots of emails and comments about the Excess Phase Peak patterns I use on my charts.
They are really quite simple to understand once you learn their structure/process.
But, the hardest part of using them is they work as a YING/YANG type of price structure. While the bullish Excess Phase Peak patterns are operating, the other side of price action, the bearish Excess Phase Peak patterns, are also operating in price.
So, you have to be able to see what's in front of you from both sides.
In this example with BTCUSD, I try to highlight both the bullish and bearish Excess Phase Peak patterns for traders to learn to use them more efficiently.
Get some.
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$LYFT Breaks Downtrend LineNASDAQ:LYFT I thought I published this idea back on September 17th when I went long. I started with a ½ size position on that date. I added additional shares on Monday the 23rd and again yesterday to bring it up to a full-size position. I am now hoping it will consolidate some of these gains. This is one I plan on trading around, meaning I may take some profits and look to add back or if it does not fall below the 5 DMA (white) and simply consolidates there I may simply add. It looks to me that NASDAQ:LYFT “could” run to the $15 area before hitting any resistance. All TBD.
On a side note, were I just seeing this, I would wait for some consolidation or a pullback before entering a position.
Ideas, not investing / trading advice.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 10-8 : Gap Breakaway PatternToday's Gap Breakaway pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will gap up and rally higher - moving away from yesterday's base/bottom.
Remember, we had two basing and bottoming patterns over the weekend. Although I don't really count weekend patterns as drivers of price trends, I view them as psychological patterns. In other words, they reflect expectations headed into the following week of trading.
So, the basing/bottoming patterns last weekend will likely resolve into a melt up type of trend this week and the gapping/breakaway patterns this week will, as a result, present a strong opportunity to the upside for traders.
Recently, I started drawing the "Roadmap" trade signals on the charts for traders. This is an attempt to make things easier for all of you. Allowing you to see where the opportunities are for Options or Share trades more clearly.
Ideally, if this works for all of us, then I'll be able to map out 4 to 7+ days of price rotation in clear trade triggers for all of us to use.
Now, something interesting I wanted to point out is the SPY has just moved into a #3 phase of an Excess Phase Peak pattern. It is a very small pullback off a high - but it is still a valid Excess Phase Peak pattern.
If price rallies today, as I expect, this rally will invalidate the Excess Phase Peak pattern and put us into a strong rally phase targeting $605 on the SPY.
Gold is getting ready to move into a basing/support zone over the next 18+ hours - then really start to rally higher.
BTCUSD has rolled downward - just as I expected moving into the #3 phase of it's Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Again, if you are not paying attention - I'm picking apart all of these charts very cleanly and the information I present should be helping you see and identify better trade opportunities.
Tell me how I'm doing.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade 10-7 Roadmap UpdateThis short video updates traders related to the SPY & GOLD Cycle Patterns and how I see price playing out over the next 48+ hours.
I also highlight the resistance level setting up in BTCUSD.
Should be interesting to see how this plays out over the next 4+ days.
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Why I'm Bullish in the market on the midtermIntroduction
I want to break down why I’m optimistic about the current market conditions and share my strategy as we approach the release of CPI data. I’ll walk you through the big picture—the macroeconomic landscape, the Fed’s approach, economic indicators, and the geopolitical situation
MACRO ANALYSIS
1. Fed’s Approach Dovish
Let’s start by looking at the macro environment. Right now, the Federal Reserve is signaling rate cuts. Market now is expecting a 0.50 cut at the end of the year. A good question is why the Fed is cutting rates. In my opinion, the most important reason is that inflation is almost at its target of 2% year over year. This is crucial because it tells us that the economy isn’t overheating anymore. The Fed no longer needs to keep rates high to control inflation.
So what happens when rates come down? Companies can borrow money at lower costs, consumers can spend more freely, and overall, this adds fuel to the economy. We’re also seeing quantitative easing, meaning more liquidity is being pumped into the market. This will likely lead to a weaker US dollar, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. A weaker dollar can boost exports and benefit risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies and equities.
Adding to that, CHINA, Japan and potentially the EUR are taking dovish behavior in their monetary policy, CHINA stimulating the economy strongly. BOJ reducing the hawkish,Adding more fuel to the global markets.
2. Economic Strength
We’re seeing strong economic indicators.
JOLTS Job opening 8.14M vs 7.64M, ISM Services PMI were stronger than expected 54.9 VS 51.7 and continued above 50 indicating expansion. NFP data 254k vs 247 number better than expected, Unemployment rate 4.1% vs 4.2% better than expected.
These are signs that businesses are still hiring, consumers are still spending, and overall, the economy is not strugglin.
This is important because it means we’re not cutting rates due to a weak economy and helping it—. The FED is cutting rates because inflation is coming under control, not because businesses are struggling. This distinction is key for my optimism. Lower borrowing costs paired with a strong economy create a good environment for growth.
This means that a dovish monetary policy, strong economy potentiate the growth, expansion, investment on the economy and business that this is reflected in the equities prices.
3. Geopolitical Conflict
The third piece of the puzzle is the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. Yes, this adds some uncertainty to the global outlook, but from a market perspective, geopolitical events tend to create short-term volatility. As long as the situation doesn’t escalate further, I don’t see it as a mid-term threat to the broader market. When the situation stabilizes, we could even see markets gain more confidence. For now, I’m not letting this weigh too heavily on my decision-making.
Elections USA, just adding on this part that both sides are going to continue expanding the debt and increasing the expenditures, Trump is proposing more stimulus to the economy with a more aggressive reduction of the rates. Generally both sides offers similar paths but Trump more aggressive
CONCLUSION
In the midterm the macro indicates a good environment for the equities to continue higher.
Some names I’m looking for are in the crypto space such as IBIT, ETF as TQQQ and stocks as NVDA, Meta. But I will cover in another letter
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade for 10-7 - SPY Cycle Patterns RoadmapThis week, I'm trying something I started over the last week or two - a "Roadmap" of what I expect to see price do going forward 7-10+ days.
Now, this is something most people won't do because it presents a "live or die" outcome. Either I'm going to be right (or somewhat right) about price action and can live with my expectations - or, I'm going to be completely wrong about all of my expectations and it will prove to be a failed exercise in the use of my SPY Cycle Patterns.
So, at this point - you know I'm hoping price does exactly what I expect it to do.
I started doing this about 2 weeks ago. I just started calling it the "Roadmap" for traders (tieing into the Plan Your Trade concept).
What I'm trying to do is to show you how I use my SPY Cycle Patterns (and other analysis techniques) to try to stay ahead of market trends. And you can learn to do this as well.
It just takes time, practice, and knowledge.
So, as we start the week out in early October - let's see how this plays out and if we get any surprises with price action.
I spend quite a bit of time going over BTCUSD today - pay attention.
Get some.
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US Inflation, Earnings Season Kickoff, Markets on EdgeS&P has failed to make all-time highs
Dow has failed to make all-time highs
Nasdaq has failed to make any new highs
Russell has failed to make any new highs
Oil rips on Middle East escalations
Dollar rips on technical support and bear trap play. Dollar is a big component to the stock markets edging higher for the remainder of the year (e.g. dollar strong = market weak, dollar weak = market strong)
I'm keeping it very simple and staying patient for any "dip" opportunities on indexes, stocks, and watchlist items
I still like Gold, Silver, Bitcoin long as well - again, patient on price action and entries
Major News this week
-US CPI (MoM, YoY, Core and Reg CPI)
-Earnings Season Kickoff - DPZ, DAL, WFC, JPM, BLK and others
Thanks for watching!!!
SMART MONEY MAKING BIG MOVES! IS NFLX NEXT?
NFLX is shaping up into a great setup. I'm watching for the price to stabilize in the 720-723.5 range, and if we see buyers step in there, it could be on its way to new all-time highs.
We ran with the 715C 0DTE on Friday, and it's worth keeping an eye on heading into next week.
If the market pushes higher, NFLX has a higher probability of breaking new highs.
$QQQ Longer ViewpointNASDAQ:QQQ is lagging behind AMEX:SPY and has not reclaimed ATH ' yet .'
Looking at the weekly time frame, we can note that NASDAQ:QQQ has been bouncing off the trendline that started back in JAN 2023.
It has touched and bounced off that trendline 3x so far:
-MARCH 2023
-OCTOBER 2023
-AUGUST 2024
Each time it bounced, it ran for approximately 100pts + and took roughly 124 - 140 days before consolidation and/or a correction / retracement / pullback occurred.
From a technical standpoint, NASDAQ:QQQ will attempt at All Time Highs (ATH) at $503.52 again. We have to be conscience of the divergence between AMEX:SPY and $QQQ. AMEX:SPY has already made a new ATH while NASDAQ:QQQ is lagging behind.
If ATH is broken on NASDAQ:QQQ and price move similarly to the last two weekly trendline bounce, then price could reach $528 and some change before possible consolidation and/or a correction / retracement / pullback occurred with a timeline of around mid-December.
Failure to reclaim and/or break ATH can cause NASDAQ:QQQ to return back to the trendline.
This is NOT financial advice but an opinion.