SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-27: BreakAway PatternHappy day before Thanksgiving, everyone.
Stay safe this holiday and remember to share hugs and love with all the people that are the most important in your life.
Trading will be there tomorrow and the next day - always.
Family, health, and loved ones always come before trading/work.
Today is a Breakaway pattern for the SPY. I suspect the SPY will still struggle near the 600 level and possibly REJECT into a downward price trend over the next 5+ trading days.
The QQQ is showing a very clear Flagging formation whereas the SPY is showing more overall strength.
Gold and Silver make a big GAP move higher. This is nice to see. I still believe Gold will attempt to rally above $3000 before the end of 2024 and Silver will attempt to rally above $35 before the end of 2024.
Bitcoin is now moving into a projected consolidation phase. The pending breakdown phase may see Bitcoin move down to the $74k to GETTEX:82K level. Buckle up.
Remember, we are going to have Thanksgiving holiday and shortened trading hours. If you have not already moved a large portion of your capital into CASH, you could be taking unwanted risks.
Get some.
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QQQ
$INTC In Uptrend?NASDAQ:INTC It is looking like this old dog might be ready to move higher. Since the August 24th ER Gap Down, Intel has been putting in a nice base. In doing so it has established an uptrend and is well into the gap. I have an alert set just above the 21 DMA (teal blue).
If it triggers, I will take a long position with a stop under the most recent low which will give me a great risk reward entry. Let’s see what happens.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-26 : Inside-BreakawayAs we move closer to the Thanksgiving holiday, I want to remind traders that low liquidity is likely to drive extreme price swings throughout the markets this week and next.
Many traders are already "taking a break" from the markets right now - so please trade with CAUTION. Trade smaller positions and don't get trapped in anything you can't handle.
The markets will close on Thursday and have a half day on Friday. That means we are going to go about 3.5 days with no trading into early next week. Are you ready for that?
If not, get into a position where you can settle in through the holidays and relax. Come back to the markets on Monday/Tuesday next week.
I expect the SPY/QQQ to attempt to reject near the recent highs (yesterday) and for Gold and Silver to move into a bullish recovery phase after yesterday's selling pressure.
The one thing I would warn trades about today is the potential for a low-liquidity BREAKDOWN in price for the SPY/QQQ as well as Gold & Silver.
If there is some financial (US Treasuries) or breakdown event that prompts the markets into some type of Flash Crash - everything will go down.
I'm not saying this IS going to happen - but it COULD happen.
So, be prepared just in case.
Bitcoin is struggling to find any support throughout this downtrend. I suspect the $72-$77k level may be the final support for BTCUSD.
Buckle up. We could be in for a wild ride.
Get some.
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Custom Crash Index Indicates Global Markets Are PanickingI believe the global markets are panicking related to Trump's pending inauguration and the fact that the US Fed may have to keep interest rates elevated through a US austerity process.
If you understand what this means, you'll clearly see why the US Dollar is trading above 106 and why Gold/Silver have moved downward recently.
The process of the US moving into smaller government with potentially $1.?T in excess capital means the US would move into a dynamic BEAST of a global economy. Able to pay down debt, restructure government agencies to become more efficient and lean, while pushing global economies closer and closer to having to clean up their own mess.
This is what I call the Predatory Fed.. and will likely prompt some very big price moves over the next 4-5+ years.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-25-24 - Carryover TrendToday's pattern is a Carryover in Trend mode. Obviously, this is a holiday week, and because of low liquidity, I expect to see moderately wild price volatility.
Stay cautious, as price moves could be exaggerated this week.
Gold and Silver are still attempting to break higher and trading in a consolidated sideways price channel.
BTCUSD pauses into the holiday week.
This would be a good week to pause, read a good book, and avoid the risks in the global markets.
This shortened trading week will likely result in very wild price swings.
Stay cautious.
Get some.
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Gold Spot intraday setup. The Pushmi - Pullyu animalRemember Dr. Dolittle? He was a vet who could talk to animals. One of the rarest was the “pushmi-pullyu,” a llama with two heads (one head was where the ass ought to be).
The pushmi-pullyu was a gentle creature that did not like to be stared at. And yet the other animals in Africa convinced him to go with the good Dr., and be put on display in Europe, because Dr. Dolittle was a kind soul who needed money to look after all the animals in his “care”.
It's gone a bit since Gold explosion last week, due to Biden's gaffe to authorize the yellow/blues regime use US-made missiles inside Russia's legal area, while the rods of Russia's retribution hanged like the sword of Damocles over all of Europe, on the basis of reciprocity.
Last week Gold spot added +153 US Dollars just in 5 Days. That was the best in history ever 1-week return, since January, 1980. Additionally, in percentage points Gold spot added +5.97 percent in a week. It was the 3rd best 1-week return over past decade.
Gold spot in Euro OANDA:XAUEUR at the same time continues its gain 11th straight month in a row.
The main intraday graph is for Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD , and it indicates that Gold has retraced a bit to its key $2670 level (that was discussed in earlier published ideas), and ready to take Adv. again, since Trump-a-rally rolled out into the all-the-world fart.
QQQ I Continued growth within the ascending channelWelcome back! Let me know your thoughts in the comments!
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$QLYS – Looks Like a BuyNASDAQ:QLYS Looks to be under institutional accumulation. Look at those volume bars at earnings. According to the AVWAPs, there should not be much selling pressure from longer term holders trying to get out.
I like the solid base of around 90 days before the big breakout. This is a low float stock so keep that in mind as bid / ask spreads can get larger than higher volume stocks.
I have an alert just above Friday’s high and above the AVWAPs to look for an entry. I will go to a lower timeframe to find an entry and to set my stop. A stop below the most recent low is too wide for me. If I take the trade, I will update the idea.
Thanks for looking. Comments always welcome.
Entering a Bull Market for the Russell 2000From a weekly chart perspective, the Russell 2000 ETF is showing a rounded bottom formation. Coupled with Trump-era policies encouraging reshoring and boosting local consumption, this has been a positive catalyst for small-cap stocks.
While the S&P 500 remains strong, the Nasdaq, particularly tech stocks like semiconductors, has already experienced varying degrees of pullback.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-22: Tmp-Bottom PatternToday's Temp-Bottom pattern suggests the SPY/QQQ will attempt to move downward - trying to find support.
If this pattern plays out as I suspect, we'll see the SPY and QQQ move lower, with the SPY attempting to move to the 588-590 area and the QQQ attempting to move to the 499-500 area.
I still believe the current setup promotes a breakdown in price based on the current Flagging formation related to the broad Excess Phase Peak pattern.
Nothing tells me the markets are going to rally at this stage. Unless we get above the Peak levels of these patterns, the most logical outcome is a breakdown in price leading to a Phase #3 EPP consolidation low.
Gold and Silver are starting to make a very big recovery rally - just as I suggested weeks ago.
It is great to see this move in Gold - although Silver is lagging a bit. Silver will rally, but it will rally slower than Gold at this point.
There is a real chance Gold could be trading above $3000 before the end of 2024. Buckle up.
BTCUSD came within $1000 of my $100,500 target level overnight. WOW.
This last $1000 move higher should be reached today.
Once we get above $100,500 on BTCUSD, expect it to try to roll into a new pullback and setup a new EPP Flagging formation.
That is what price does, it is either TRENDING or FLAGGING.
Get some.
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Tech on the Edge: SMH vs. QQQ Signals Caution Amid Bull MarketIntroduction:
While we remain enthusiastic about the strength of the current bull market, emerging signs of stress in capital flows warrant a closer look, particularly in the tech sector. One key metric to monitor is the ratio between semiconductors (SMH) and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ). This ratio acts as a barometer for tech sector health: when SMH outperforms QQQ, it indicates a risk-on environment; conversely, QQQ outperforming SMH raises caution flags.
Analysis:
Tech Sector Barometer: The SMH-to-QQQ ratio has historically been a reliable indicator of momentum in the tech sector. Outperformance by SMH reflects strong demand for semiconductors and broader tech health, while underperformance signals potential concerns.
Emerging Concern: Currently, we’re observing the potential development of a rounding top formation in the SMH-to-QQQ ratio. While this formation isn’t confirmed, a breakdown below key support would validate it, signaling broader weakness in the tech sector.
Critical Inflection Point: For now, chip bulls must take control and push this ratio higher to maintain sector strength and prevent a broader pullback in the market. Failure to do so could signal a shift in sentiment and increased vulnerability in tech stocks.
Conclusion:
The SMH-to-QQQ ratio is at a critical juncture, with the potential to dictate near-term momentum in the tech sector. While the bull market remains intact, any confirmed weakness in this ratio could signal broader vulnerability in tech stocks. Will chip bulls step up to defend the sector, or are we on the cusp of a pullback? Share your thoughts below!
Charts: (Include relevant charts showing the SMH-to-QQQ ratio, the potential rounding top formation, and key support levels)
Tags: #Semiconductors #Nasdaq #TechSector #SMH #QQQ #MarketTrends #TechnicalAnalysis
Update: GOLD, SILVER, NVDA, SPDR Sectors, SPY, QQQ & MoreThe markets are really struggling this morning.
The strong selling after the open is likely an indication traders are not buying into the hype right now.
NVDA earnings hit and drove the markets a bit higher into the open. I see this selling pressure as a BIG SHIFT into my Anomaly Event.
Gold & Silver are reacting to the downside.
SPTD sectors, particularly XLE (Energy) is still showing strong upward trends - while many of the others have already started to move downward.
I'm watching XLF and XLRE for a breakdown event.
The SPY & QQQ are showing broad weakness right now.
Prepare for my Price Anomaly Event.
Get some.
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-21 : Harami Inside PatternToday's Pattern suggests the SPY will consolidate in a Harami-Inside day type of price action.
In today's video, I highlight the continued potential for a price Anomaly event, even though we are seeing mostly post-election bullish price activity.
I do believe the proposed Anomaly event is highly likely headed into the Thanksgiving & Christmas holiday season.
Gold and Silver may stall a bit before attempting to rally further. Silver is not reacting similar to Gold, thus I have concerns that metals may stall a bit before attempting a bigger move higher.
BTCUSD is on track to rally up to $100k - just as I predicted.
Get some today.
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Market Snapshot - MSTR is a monster + NVDA earnings and HedgingNVDA beat top and bottom estimates after market today.
Due to it's 3.58T market cap, let's see where the SPY/QQQ are trading Thursday post NVDA earnings.
MSTR making headlines as one of the top traded stocks (behind NVDA) and it continues to surge and even outperform BTC in a big way - great gains but be careful of the rocket ship runs because they tend to end violently.
I also spend time reviewing my full watchlist in stocks, options, futures, and forex.
Thanks for watching!!!
NVDA Predictive Modeling Outlook : Pre Earnings 11-20-24I thought I would have a little fun with my ADL Predictive Modeling system.
This shows the Daily & Weekly predictive results for NVDA prior to the earnings data release.
Have fun.
This is really just to show you how the ADL system works and to test the outcome related to NVDA's earnings/outcome.
Get some..
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Gold takes Adv. since Trump-a-rally pans out to Bulls fartIt's gone 2 weeks or so, since Mr. Trump has secured a win over his Democrat-rival Kamala Harris in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, as it declared by the Associated Press.
Since that, a lot of stocks soared in a meme-style mode, while Bitcoin clears $93,000 and Dogecoin soared amid Trump-fueled crypto rally.
Among nearly 2000 components of Smallcap Russell 2000 Index TVC:RUT , appr. 90 percent of them (without any fundamental reasons) were up on November 6 - at the day Trump clinched White House victory.
For S&P 500 SP:SPX and Nasdaq-100 NASDAQ:NDX indices these numbers were 70 and 75 percent respectively.
Since US dollar interest rates are still near multi year highs and Powell still says the Fed is in no hurry to cut interest rates.. all of that means Trump-a-rally gives no light for super-duper bets, as it's been discussed in earlier posted ideas.
Moreover, Geopolitics is roaring back, as current U.S. President Joe Biden tries to authorize the yellow-blues to use powerful long-range American-made weapons inside Russia's legal areas, potentially inside Kursk region where located The Kursk Nuclear Power Plant, that is one of the three biggest nuclear power plants (NPPs) in Russia and one of the four biggest electricity producers in the country.
The main graph is for Gold spot OANDA:XAUUSD , and it indicates on Cup with Handle technical structure in development as Gold takes Adv. since Trump-a-rally pans out to Bulls fart.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 11-20 : Flat-Down PatternToday's Flat Down Pattern suggests the SPY & QQQ will trail downward a bit within the current #2 sideways flagging pattern. I believe this setup is indicative of a broader breakdown (Anomaly Event) playing out headed into Thanksgiving and into the end of the year.
Gold and Silver are also moving in an Inverted Excess Phase Peak pattern - struggling near a Phase #3 (sideways consolidation) range. This move will resolve to the upside if my research is correct, yet we could also see Gold and Silver move into a very large Phase #2 type of EPP phase (Flagging downward). This could setup a very large upward price rally in Gold and Silver over the next 60+ days.
BTCUSD is struggling to break to new highs. Although I see a confirmed bullish trend because of a recent new Higher High, I also see BTCUSD struggling to continue to make new highs right now.
Because of this, I see some potential for a breakdown if BTCUSD is unable to rally to new highs within the next 5 to 6+ hours.
Remember, price must always attempt to make new highs or new lows. Failure to make a new high means price must then attempt to make a new low. Failure to make a new low means price must then attempt to make a new high.
These are the RULES OF MARKET PRICE ACTIVITY. Once you learn to use/follow them, trading becomes a bit easier to understand.
Get some.
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