SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-7 : Post FOMC UpdateThis video highlights a number of factors why I believe the markets are stalling and are likely to REVERT back to the 515-525 area on the SPY.
Without any real economic driving component, while tariffs and other concerns continue to play out, I believe the SPY will continue to search for Ultimate Support over the next 5-7+ months, then move into an upward reversion phase.
Part of what I'm trying to teach my followers is to try to understand how price operates in structures and phases.
Price only does two things: TRENDS or FLAGS
Within those phases, price structures (EPP, Cradle, and others) take over to determine how and why price may or may not attempt to make certain price moves.
Additionally, without any bias, or economic impetus (driver), price tends to REVERT.
In this video, I show you how to use the STDDEV channels to identify possible target areas for the different phases of market trend.
Ultimately, IMO, trading is about being able to see the price structure, phases, and path of least resistance (in terms of bias/expectations). This helps us position for the highest probability outcome (and hopefully for successful trades).
Remember, all of these techniques can be applied to intra-day charts the same way I'm applying them to Daily and Weekly charts.
Remember, price only does two things: TREND or FLAG.
Once you understand that, applying price structures/phases to price while it TRENDS or FLAGS helps you to gain a keen understanding of where price may target/move in the immediate future.
Hope this helps.
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QQQ
FED DAY IS HERE! $qqq at MAJOR resistance. Today will be a tellQQQ is stuck under the 200sma and a supply zone. WE have used up a lot of the tarriff deals news flow. The market will be looking to uncle Jerome for direction. If he comes in dovish and says the inflation is tempered we could push through into the suction zone.
If he comes in hot and says the tariff war heating up inflation we could get a big pause on the rally. with the QQQ under so much supply this is a logical spot for Powell to dump on the market.
We have the 9ema under if we break under it will trigger a short for me. if we stay above its a leave alone unless we remount the 200sma on the daily chart.
$STZ Get Upgrade and $125 Price TargetNYSE:STZ Has been in a stage one base for about 4 months and is above all the Moving Averages with the fastest on top and slowest on bottom. With the new upgrade can it breakout into a stage 2 uptrend?
I have an alert set at just 188.50, right in the resistance area. I will take the trade if it triggers with a stop just below the most recent low of 182.62. That makes a well-defined risk reward for me.
On the fundamental side, we are moving into summer and beverage sales could easily pick up.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Video For 5-7 : Breakaway In CounterToday's Breakaway In Counter Trend mode suggests the markets will likely attempt to break downward before the end of trading, today. Why do I state the downward trend direction?
Because the LT/ST trends are BULLISH and the general upward price trend in the SPY over the past 5-10+ days.
Counter-trend patterns are typically inverted compared to the general 5-8 day price trend. If we can't clearly identify a 5-8 day price trend, then the counter-trend patterns should be determined based on the ST/LT and BIAS trend information on the SPY Cycle Patterns data window.
Today, being a FOMC comment day, should stay rather muted/sideways in early trading. Normally, on FOMC days, the markets tend to stay paused ahead of the FOMC comments.
I believe the FED will not raise or lower rates - meaning NO CHANGE. I don't believe the US Fed has any reason to be concerned with US economic performance right now.
Gold and Silver should move into a rally phase today - but that will likely come near the end of the day as the FED comments drive the markets.
BTCUSD has moved into an early FLAGGING formation. This could be very interesting as BTCUSD has been leading the SPY/QQQ by about 4-6 trading days over the past few weeks.
If BTCUSD continues to lead the SPY/QQQ - that means the SPY/QQQ would be in the early breakdown phase right now - moving into a FLAGGING formation possibly next week.
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$DJI & $NDX at MAJOR RESISTANCEDaily
The TVC:DJI has done well since April & we noticed a sentiment change. This is why we turned bullish. Only problem? Lack of volume. We can see that volume stayed under the pink dots. This is an average of 90 days.
We can also see this by the Money Flow. As of now the lowest peak since mid March on this indicator.
---
Weekly
The TVC:DJI RSI hasn't broken the halfway point. This is needed for more bullish momentum.
Money flow is slanting lower. The interesting tid bit is that volume for the week is not bad at all. But compare this to Jan 2024 and 4th quarter of the same year... LOWER.
Posted this yesterday, see profile for more info.
MNQ1!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025MNQ1!/NQ1! Day Trade Plan for 05/06/2025
📈 19840 19900 19965
📉 19779 19717 19655
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
TSLA Eiffel Tower Not CompleteEiffel tower patterns are rare but very powerful TA structures when they develop.
They are very hard patterns to short since we can never know when the wave up ends. However, there is so much information we can extract from them during and after the collapse.
When they are rising and going vertical, and you happen to be in it. The benefits will be great! As the price action sucks in everyone all at once with virtually no sellers.
So, what info can we learn?
On the way up, when this is happening, you should have the ability to recognize it at some point without worrying if you got the top. Take your money and RUN!
Never try to get back in and try to chase it up!
Never try to short it, thinking it is too high, this is the top!
When it tops out, never buy the dip! Bc you know how this structure will end.
Never buy based on some silly FIB or bc it's down too much!
Never buy the base thinking it will go back to new all-time highs, and it is now safe to get back in bc it will only keep going lower, more through time, frustrating you until you puke it up.
So remember this gimmicky sound bite.
"If they don't scare you out, they will wear you out!"
Ain't nobody got time for that! Your money has a much better place to be allocated to make you money instead of being fixated on a chart like this.
The reason people get stuck is bc the move provoked emotion! Then, when they get involved thinking they will be Buffett tomorrow from this one trade, they will experience Euphoria, sadness, anger etc., further provoking even more emotions to the point they become obsessed! Guessing, waiting, hoping, doubling down on and on...
Ask me how I know! hahaha!
While I made a lot of money shorting GME, here is an example of an Eiffel tower with many, many people that have this trading disease I just spoke about.
In conclusion, anyone who believes that TSLA will hit $1,000 blah blah blah and suckered into buying it. You now know you are being honey dicked by a bunch of armatures and bots on X. Beyond TSLA there are many such charts out there tight now that have formed the beginnings of ET. As such, you should know how to recognize it quickly and avoid the pitfalls out there.FYI I called the Top on TSLA ))
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-6 : GAP Breakaway patternToday's pattern suggests a morning GAP will take place and price will continue to break away from yesterday's body range.
Given the fact that the markets are already almost 0.8-0.9% lower than yesterday's closing price level, this suggests the markets will continue to trend downward today.
Is this it? Is this the breakdown for May 2-5, seeking the Major Bottom I've talked about for the past 3+ weeks?
We'll find out over the next 5-10+ days.
Ultimately, the EPP patterns have aligned across multiple instruments/symbols to present a very clear opportunity to the downside. Now, we need to watch and wait as the markets should be moving into the early FLAGGING stage of the downward EPP pattern.
After the FLAGGING pattern, we should get the breakdown into consolidation, which is where I believe big profits can be made. That breakdown into the consolidation phase is usually very aggressive and can often be after the FLAGGING range.
Gold and Silver are making a move higher. I suggested this would be the case over the past 5-10+ days - but, boy, was it frustrating to watch Gold and Silver consolidate over the past few weeks.
At this point, I'm looking for Gold to rally above $3500 and for Silver to attempt to rally above $34.00.
Bitcoin seems to be leading the SPY/QQQ (again) and appears to be about 2-3 days ahead of the major US indexes, attempting to move into a downward FLAGGING formation.
This could be very interesting if BTCUSD continues to lead the SPY/QQQ. Meaning, we may be able to rely on the structures/setups in BTCUSD as a 2-3 day early window of that the SPY/QQQ may be doing (for a while). I'm sure it won't continue to align at some point in the future.
Again, I'm getting great comments from followers and subscribers. Thank you.
I'm doing my best to deliver the best research I can within these 15 to 20-min videos.
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$MSFT BEST TRADE EVER? SUB $400 incoming by Mid JuneHey everybody, I hope that rally didn't kick your arses the way it did mine. You know, it's like I'm allergic to taking upside atm due to how bearish the MACRO is. Of course, with time, I'm going to assume I get most of my downside Price Targets in the next several years.
If you refer to the previous 23% Run to the 200DMA from the 50day in 2023 , NASDAQ:MSFT produced a 9 COUNT SELL SIGNAL , RALLIED for a week, and then dropped to new lows. That is what I am expecting here.
NASDAQ:MSFT looks absolutely ripe for the taking. We just rallied 17% and got the 9 COUNT SELL SIGNAL . Mind you, Gaps galore below. The Monthly and the Weekly both have Gaps . Charts do not like that, let me tell ya. I'm excited if you can't tell. NASDAQ:META and NASDAQ:AVGO look great as well. I'm still cautious about a spike out but I figure if we continue higher, i will have opportunity to grab more for cheaper as I am very confident in this move. The price moved above the DEATH CROSS and above the 200DMA . Not ever a healthy move if it moves Vertically from the 50 day and Crosses above both MA's without a stop. Mid June NASDAQ:MSFT should be at new lows.
$BA Been Basing About 1 Year – Ready to Break-out?I am already long NYSE:BA since earnings report on April 23 with a full size position. I am looking for this to form a short flat base to allow the 10 (purple) and twenty ema (blue) to catch up. I will be looking to add to my position if that happens and it resumes the uptrend. Since it bottomed out on April 7th it has made about a 45% move. That is why I think my scenario may play out. All TBD.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-5-25 : GAP Reversal PatternToday's pattern suggests the SPY will open with a GAP range from yesterday's candle Body and attempt to reverse the trend we saw last week.
I believe this move will resolve to the downside, as I've been warning of the May 2-5 Major Bottom for many weeks.
I believe the extended uptrend over the last few weeks was pure speculation related to Q1 US earnings. It is hard to argue that traders playing into the Q1 earnings boost didn't play the right side of the trend after watching the markets rally over the past 2+ weeks. But, I still believe the markets will consolidate and attempt to move downward over the next 10- 20+ days.
The one thing that we have to understand is Q1 was almost on auto-pilot from Biden's economy/spending until Trump threw a curveball at the global markets with tariffs.
I don't believe the US & global markets have truly priced in a global -25% to -45% economic contraction because of the ongoing tariff negotiations. It has been reported that shipping rates are down 60% in China. I believe we still need another 30-60+ days to work out the tariff issues and to allow the markets to settle into proper expectations for future economic output/growth.
Because of this, I continue to urge traders to stay cautious.
Sitting on CASH right now (only trading 20% of your total capital) is probably the smartest thing you can do at the moment.
I still expect the July and October 2025 lows to be the base/bottom of the markets, leading to a stronger upward price trend.
Right now, I've very cautious we've just seen a "dead-cat bounce" off recent lows because of Q1 earnings expectations.
Now that we've passed most of the Q1 data - we are staring at Q2 & Q3. What comes next.
I believe Gold/Silver will continue to price in extreme risk factors - resulting in a strong rally through May and into June.
I believe Bitcoin will stall and move back down to the lower consolidation range.
Let's see how things play out this week.
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#202518 - priceactiontds - weekly update - nasdaqGood Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bulls want at least 20536 now and run all the stops from before the big sell-off. Bears are not doing anything at all, so bulls will likely get it. This could be a breakout-retest and I marked the area for that with the red rectangle. Small chance bears come around next week but for now it’s too early to short and buying into 9 consecutive bull days is statistically beyond moronic.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 15500 - 23000 (upper range is a guess, could also become 21000 but for now we don’t know so I assume the higher price)
bull case: 20536 and then 21000. Those are the next targets and bulls are in full control of the market. The measured move from the buy spike at the lows is around 22350 and it’s possible that we get there. I think we need to see a pullback and how deep that will be. If we get only another sell spike and immediate buying for higher highs, we can also assume much higher prices. Above 21100 there is no reason not to go for 23000.
Invalidation is below 19100.
bear case: Bears have nothing. Below 19100 market is neutral but until then, selling this is dumb. Wait for more bears to appear or at least seeing something that resembles a topping pattern. Like a lower high on the 1h chart. Don’t try to be the lucky bear who shorted the exact high.
Invalidation is above 21100.
short term: Neutral. No interest in buying such a buy climax but it’s way too early for shorts. Patience is key.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-04-26: My most bearish target for 2025 was 17500ish. Now I assume we will be in a trading range 16000 - 23000 for much longer.
QQQ Technical Analysis! SELL!
My dear subscribers,
This is my opinion on the QQQ next move:
The instrument tests an important psychological level 488.86
Bias - Bearish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend gives a precise Bearish signal, while Pivot Point HL predicts price changes and potential reversals in the market.
Target - 463.87
About Used Indicators:
On the subsequent day, trading above the pivot point is thought to indicate ongoing bullish sentiment, while trading below the pivot point indicates bearish sentiment.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
———————————
WISH YOU ALL LUCK
QQQ: Bearish Continuation & Short Trade
QQQ
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell QQQ
Entry - 488.86
Stop - 505.90
Take - 457.49
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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$RDDT Earnings Beat 30% / Earnings Growth 101.6%I have taken a position in NYSE:RDDT at $120.50 and I will put my stop on a definitive close under the 21 EMA (blue). At the current price that would be about an 8% stop. (Sometimes I take positions off before they hit my stop loss if it is not acting well.)
I am looking for this to retake its prior leadership but it may not. From ATH to lowest low was a 65% drop. It has gained about 26% of that back.
If you like this idea, please make it your own trade that fits with your trading rules.
Reddit Beat Expectations
Thursday, May 1, 2025 at 4:06 PM ET
Reddit (RDDT) reported earnings of $0.13 per share on revenue of $392.36 million for the first quarter ended March 2025. The consensus earnings estimate was $0.02 per share on revenue of $373.33 million. The Earnings Whisper number was $0.10 per share. The company beat expectations by 30.00% while revenue grew 61.49% on a year-over-year basis.
The company said it expects second quarter revenue of $410.0 million to $430.0 million. The current consensus revenue estimate is $399.36 million for the quarter ending June 30, 2025.
Reddit is a community of communities built on shared interests, passion, and trust and is home to the most open and authentic conversations on the internet.
SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade For 5-2-25 : Major CRUSH PatternToday's pattern is a Major CRUSH pattern in Counter-Trend mode. These types of patterns (CRUSH patterns) are usually very large range bars that move against the current price trend. A Counter-trend Major CRUSH pattern would likely be a huge bar that moves counter to a counter-trend - thus potentially BULLISH.
Today, I have my reservations related to how this Major Crush pattern will setup. As I stated in my video, yesterday's price bar setup an Island type of bar (in an Evening formation) which is very typical of a topping pattern.
Today, I'm expecting the markets to sell downward into the Major CRUSH pattern. I believe the move of my MRM system into Bullish Trending yesterday sets up a perfect opportunity for the markets to shake out the longs on a big CRUSH pattern today.
But, I've also highlighted bullish breakaway levels on the SPY/QQQ chart for traders to be prepared for any outcome today.
In short, I believe the May 2-5 Major Bottom aligns with this Major CRUSH pattern as a downward price trend today. But, I'll be prepared to take my lumps if I'm wrong and the markets rally straight upward.
Over the past few days, we've seen some interesting developments in China and other places. I do not believe the US market is immune from the global slowdown which is taking place right now. Therefore, I urge traders to continue to stay protected from risks and to keep allocation levels rather small.
It may seem like a fantastic time to throw out some big trades - but it is still very dangerous in this extreme volatility.
I see Gold and Silver trying to base/bottom near recent lows over the next 5+ days. I still believe Gold will be trading at or near $4100 before the end of May.
Bitcoin seems to have followed the SPY/QQQ upward since April 21. I believe this is pure speculation. I'm still very cautious of a breakdown in the markets right now.
Let's see how this Major CRUSH pattern plays out.
It should be interesting - one way or the other (again, I'm still leaning toward a BEARISH breakdown in price today).
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SPY/QQQ Plan Your Trade Update : Behind The Scenes ResearchI want to say thank you to all of you and to share with you all the work/resources/servers/and other data I maintain to help me identify where and how the markets will present opportunities to all of us.
This video shows you a bit of the behind-the-scenes work I do and some of my proprietary modeling systems.
I'm not sharing this with you to try to win you over or to tell you I do more than anyone else in terms of research. I'm sure there are many others who go much further than I do in terms of trying to dissect the markets and the opportunities available.
But I do believe I deliver very unique research, which is a one-of-a-kind solution for traders.
Again, I'm not 100% accurate (I wish I were).
But I am trying to share some of the decision-making solutions I use to understand where the markets are likely to move over the next 2- 4+ months and how traders can profit from my research.
Remember, you are only seeing about 10% of my total research, tools, modeling systems, and capabilities in these Plan Your Trade videos.
I want to thank all of you who continue to value my work. It is not easy. It takes money, time, and resources to continue to monitor all of these systems/algos.
The end result, I believe, is one of the most unique future/current modeling system resources you can find anywhere.
Again, thank you for making my research a success. I promise to do more and improve my tools over the next 12+ months for everyone to find better profits.
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TQQQ Day Trade Plan for 04/29/2025TQQQ Day Trade Plan for 04/29/2025
📈 55.10 55.60
📉 52.10 51.60
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*These levels are derived from comprehensive backtesting and research and a quantitative system demonstrating high accuracy. This statistical foundation suggests that price movements are likely to exceed initial estimates.*
MARKETS NOT OVERSOLD CAUTION! UPDATE!This is a monthly chart and TV keeps forcing "Target reached" on my updates. As such i am reposting this chart I first issued back on April 1st, 2025, before our "LIBERATION DAY" FACEPALM!
We are still not oversold on a monthly chart!
WARNING!
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Today is oct 14th 1929 I have moved back to Long puts at 105%The chart posted was in the forecast written dec 8th 2024 We have now reached my targets of 5669 area I have been buying the dips in calls and made $ I am now 105 % long in the money puts and I do Not see a bottom until july once we break and a second bottom mid oct The market should see a drop of 38 % into july and form a small double bottom in oct at 41 % off the highs . I will move to 125 % long puts on a sell stop at 5300 even the math at 5334 is key Best of trades WAVETIMER